Will It be Arlene Hitting The Carolinas This Weekend?

Didn't post yesterday because there is not much to talk about.  No major breaking news today either, except there continues to be computer model guidance that suggests that some kind of storm/low pressure will develop this weekend for the Carolinas.  Will it be named?  NHC thinks not keeping development at only 10% . Let me show you why the forecast is highly uncertain.

The top view has a series of surface lows all along the East Coast.  The second view adds in the upper lows revealing quite a complex weather pattern.  Whether NHC ends up calling whatever develops, the impacts (high winds 30-40 mph, seas, surf & heavy rains) will make for an ugly holiday weekend for them.  We will stay on the dry side so our rain chances will be near zero with slightly cooler & much drier air for late May.

NOAA issued their Hurricane outlook and to no surprise, it agrees with Colorado State, The Weather Channel & others.  El Nino should limit the total number of storms/hurricanes, but the warm water temperatures make many forecasters nervous.  6 of the last 7 seasons had a preseason named storm.  Will 2023 continue that trend?  As long as we have nothing in the Gulf, as FOX 8 says, LOCAL FIRST!

That East coast trough has brought down some really chilly air from Canada.  It's sweater & jacket weather for many.  

With the drier air both surface & aloft, expect plenty of sunshine & few, if any, showers for this weekend.

After being in the 90s for several days, this airmass is a welcome relief before the beast we call Summer returns by early June.  If nothing develops, I may not post much until I see something to talk about.  Enjoy your weekend & Stay tuned!