Upper Pattern Shows Little Change Into Next Week...

Yesterday I talked about how an Omega Blocking pattern was forcing smoke from the Canadian fires down into the eastern U.S.  There have been subtle changes in the flow, but the block appears to be locked in for another 3-4 days.  Here's the upper flow along with the computer forecasts into next week.

The top view is the current flow with the second valid for Sunday morning.  Hummm, no change.  The thrid graphic is valid for Tuesday morning that indicates the western low weakens as the Canadian upper high weakens.  The bottom view is valid for next Thursday that has the eastern low lifting out with a weaker trough sliding into Arkansas.  As the models indicate, there is no building upper high over the Gulf South so I don't see us going into a hotter & drying pattern for next week.  

For this weekend, I'm watching two upper disturbances that could bring us higher rain chances. With a stalled old frontal boundary from Oklahoma to the Gulf coast, many folks are likely to see some real soakers.  Some storms will reach severe limits so makes sure your FOX 8 Weather App is ready to warn you.

Showers have been slow to form today and highs for most of us easily topped 90.

I know the FOX 8 Weather team is forecasting 95+ temps, but based on next week's upper pattern, I don't see us that hot.  Also, I don't see any day with rain chances less than 20%.  Finally, for you Tropical Geeks...

The GFS continues to try to form a named storm down in the Caribbean next weekend.  The top view is valid for next Sunday followed by Monday & Tuesday where the storm curves and threatens south Florida.  Why should you NOT believe anything that far out?  Look at the last/bottom picture.  That was the GFS outcome from yesterday when they brought the storm into Texas.  Today's model run flips it to south Florida.  Pleease!

As NHC said in their outlook, no tropical activity is expected for the next 7 days.  Yeah there is an upper trough over Cuba northeastward through Bermuda,  But nothing is going on.  Enjoy your weekend , stay cool & watch out for big T-Storms.  Stay tuned!