So What Happened To The Level 5/TORCON 9 Tornado Risk?

Since our weather remains quiet/boring with the only story being how hot, Let's look back on what happened, or didn't happen during yesterday's severe tornado risk.  To be sure, there was one deadly tornado in the Oklahoma city called Barnsdall, but that's about it.   I have no clue why we didn't see many more, especially since all the experts were screaming Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS).  But here are the numbers.

Yeah, 21 tornadoes seems like a lot, but remember it was a level 5 risk.  I think what happened is SPC overreacted since the previous outbreak a week of so before produce 144, and that was with a level 3 risk.  What you should learn from this is many ingredients are needed to come together just right to produce widespread severe weather.   Miss one or two and not much happens.  Keep this in mind as we approach hurricane season where all are screaming for historic numbers.  What might they be missing?  Let's get back to our weather and when our cool front is coming.  That western trough is trying to work eastward, but note how it flattens out over us.

 That should mean only very slow progress towards us Wednesday & Thursday.

Look at the much lower dew points/drier air behind the front.  Dallas' DP is in the 50s!  Here's the timing from Nicondra.

The model keeps most of the rain north of the Lake where SPC has a level 2 severe risk for Thursday.  We will watch to see if future model runs increase our rain chances.  For right now, we go with a dry weekend.

I just don't want to start talking about heat before we even get into June.  C'mon down cold front! 

We need you!  Stay tuned!