As expected, tropical Storm Debby is heading towards Hurricane strength, perhaps a little faster than NHC expected. There has been a slight shift back to the west in the centerline track, but NHC is pretty focused on Florida's Big Bend area. Don't expect any drastic changes today through Monday. After that?
The arrows point out where I believe the center is and it appears storms are beginning to fire off around that center. Recon indicates surface pressure are falling and rapid intensification is likely this afternoon. The "wet side" of Debby is drenching the west coast of Florida where there is also a tornado threat.
Yesterday I suggested amounts of 2-4" were possible, but obviously that was too conservative. It's more likely to be in the 4-6" range.
But look at the latest predictions around Charleston! Could they get 20-30" plus? Well, that could happen IF Debby stalls like models show.
The overnight GFS run even brought the remains of Debby back to the west over us by late next week. Bottom line, you can have high confidence in the NHC track through Monday morning. Her forward speed has already slowed down and stalling out as models suggests appear very likely for Tuesday through Thursday. For sure, IF those rain totals prove to be reality, there will be widespread flooding for many along the GA/SC coasts. We stay on the dry side of Debby so we'll be dealing with near record heat (100) just set last August. Finally,
It is August and tropical activity normally ramps up. NHC is watching a strong wave approaching the Islands that might develop later next week. The Canadian forms a named storm over the southern Gulf. Alas, we watch and wait. next post after 4 PM. Stay tuned and "hunker down" Florida! GA/SC get ready next.
No comments:
Post a Comment