Tick, Tick, Tick, We've Reached August, Tropical Activity Ramping Up, Debbie Coming To Gulf

 Ever Since Beryl made landfall back on July 8th, the Tropics have been dead with not even any waves to follow coming off of Africa.  We all know the heart of Hurricane Season is Aug-Sept. into early October. So, almost on cue, we reach August and the Atlantic is full of activity.  None of the swirls out over the MDR are expected to develop.  However, the first strong wave over Haiti & the Dominican Republic has been designated Invest 97-L, which allows computer models to run.  There is no surface center yet, but NHC has scheduled a Recon aircraft tomorrow to see if something is forming.

 

T-Storm activity has increased, but the color view doesn't show any organization yet.  Here's the NHC guidance on where future Debbie is going.

Clearly, RIGHT NOW, the models are saying this will not be a Louisiana storm.  However, let me caution you with totally buying into these early model runs.  Experience has shown us models can change over time shifting the threat either side of those tracks.  The latest Euro & GFS runs are in basic agreement bringing 97-L into the eastern Gulf where it will become better organized into Tropical Storm Debbie.  We begin with the Euro valid for Sunday morning followed by Sunday, Monday & Tuesday AM.

The bottom is valid for Friday morning indicating very little movement of this system next week.  The Euro doesn't strengthen 97-L until next Wednesday off the Georgia coast.  The GFS is way more aggressive in forming Debbie just off Florida's west coast on Sunday morning. The graphics are valid each morning beginning with Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

Can you see how both models are very close to each other for next week.  For now, I'm not see anything that would bring this soon to be Debbie farther westward.   Here's the current upper air flow.

We still have that upper Heat Dome over us blocking any threats from coming our way.  The upper trough over Wisconsin is diving to the SE and will shift the Heat Dome back over the Rockies by this weekend.  That should increase our rain chances and lower our temperatures.  That upper trough should draw 97-L northward on Saturday, but will likely lift out too soon to keep it going northward.  Consequently, models are showing it slowing or stalling.  Meteorologist Amber Wheeler had a wonderful graphic showing just that.  Bottom line, the immediate threat appears to be for the whole state of Florida for heavy rainfall beginning this weekend..  In the short term (1-2 days), we suffer with more brutal heat.

They call this the "Dog Days" of August where we have brutal heat, high humidity and light winds. Being outside playing or working during the heat of the day requires constant hydration.  Little change is coming into this weekend.

NWS has upgraded our Heat Advisory to a Heat Warning on Friday.

Remember, if the Heat Dome builds back over us for next week, that would block any tropical threat from coming our way.  As I mentioned above, it appears Debbie will not be our concern.  Doesn't mean we stop watching future model forecast.  Stay tuned!