Computers Still Trying To Get Storm In Gulf In November, Halloween Could Turn Wet?

 I was listening to TWC this morning and they were talking about only 4 named storms making landfall in the eastern Gulf in November.  None of them crossed LA/MS or Al coastlines.  I've mentioned several times the reasons why the tropical threat lessens the farther you get into Fall.  Let's go over them again.  Water temperatures are much cooler across the northern Gulf with only the Caribbean still with summer -like warmth.

NHC still believes (based on computer models) a depression/storm will form in the Caribbean NEXT week.  Both the GFS & Canadian bring a system into the southern Gulf.  Here's the 
GFS time line. The top view is valid for NEXT Friday 11-8

The middle view is valid for Saturday 11-9 with the bottom valid for Monday 11-11.  What a surprise, the system/storm WEAKENS as it moves over cooler waters and increasing SW wind shear.  But why would any system get into the Gulf?  After all, it'll be November.

We currently have in place a strong surface Bermuda High/Atlantic Ridge that will block any northward movement and send whatever forms westward.  But why should we believe anything that is out in the 10-14 day time frame?  Simple answer is you shouldn't.  There's a reason why only 4 named storms have been in the Gulf in November.  The environment just turns more hostile.  You'll see many blog posts hype up a threat to the Gulf, but remember, The Lady has sung and I'm a believer in history.

We are staying so warm due to that big ridge over the Southeast.  But look at the battle zone around that low with cold air to the north & west and lingering summer over the SE.

It's certainly Winter-like over the northern Rockies.  It's in the 30s in Denver while Oklahoma City is in the 80s.   This cold front will run out of steam before it reaches us.  But there is a plumb of tropical moisture showing up on Water Vapor that will bring us our best rain chances in nearly a month. The bright oranges & reds (dry air) have shifted to Florida while a weak upper low approaches from the Gulf.

We have a few showers around today, but most of us are dry on day 26 without rain at MSY.

Every channel is calling for 60% rain coverage on Halloween, but I just remember it's hard to break out of a long dry spell without having a surface front to provide the lift for clouds/showers.   One thing for sure, there will be no cold front coming for the next 7 days as highs will stay 80+.  Minneapolis is expecting some snow tonight!  Stay tuned!