When In Drought, Leave It Out, Caribbean Storm Next Week?

 We are now in day 24 without rain and I just don't see any showers coming here for the rest of this week.  However, if you watched any of the 3 noon weathercasts, rain chances will increase, especially on Thursday (Halloween).  At least that's what all the weathercasters showed us on their models.  Maybe there will be a stray shower, but I wanted one of them just to tell me what THEY thought, and not what the model showed.  My motto during a long dry stretch has always been "When in drought, leave it out", (Jeff Baskin)  Here's what I'd be showing.

There is nothing on satellite views and the water vapor has an upper high over us.  So how can we get any showers to form?  Lower sun angle means daytime heating is probably not going to bubble up any showers under that upper high.  But there it is for the next 4 days.

Maybe a front is coming?   How?  The upper flow has a western trough and a ridge over the Southeast.  Any front will stall well to our west and that should be where the rains fall as the WPC's 7 day rainfall totals indicate.

Hey, the models may turn out correct, but at least explain YOUR thinking and don't just show me the computer solution.  We are likely to stay warm and mostly dry for the next 10-14 days.  The upper flow has to change before we see more fronts coming.

It is chilly out west and Winter Storm Watches are up for the Rockies.  But that air is not coming our way for awhile.  

I watered my lawn and garden today.  Let's see if the models are on to something.  At least you know my thinking.  As for the Tropics.

There is nothing there yet, plus the upper level winds are screaming out of the WSW.  I'm sure Patty will be named next week, but she will never threaten the northern Gulf. The lady has sung.  Finally, check out this picture sent from my son (Justin) in Oklahoma.

Justin saw this lone sailboat on Lake Hefner as the sun was setting.  Usually by late October/early November most boats in Oklahoma are out of the water as owners prepare for freezing weather.  But not this year as 80+ warmth lingers.  I have mentioned before, when it is very warm for a long time, the weather usually flips to a much colder pattern for November & December.  We shall see. Snow geeks have faith!  Stay tuned!