Recon Aircraft this morning confirmed a well defined low level circulation had developed south of Jamaica, but the surface wind strength remains below 40 mph. NHC has upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 to Tropical Depression 18 that is predicted to become storm strength (Rafael) this afternoon. The NHC future track brings Rafael into the Gulf as a Hurricane by late Wednesday.
NHC keeps the strength of Rafael as a Cat. 1 hurricane, but Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics is indicating a much stronger storm (Cat 3) first hitting Cuba before entering the Gulf.. So where will it go and how strong will it be? I like to look at past history as Zack Fradella showed us this morning.
So past history tells us there have only been 6 hurricanes enter the Gulf and NONE crossed the LA/MS coastlines Why? Because the meteorology has changed making the Gulf a much more hostile environment for storms. Let's go through what we know by looking at satellite views. Focus on the Caribbean.
The surface feature (TD 18) is the green arrows. Note there is a weak upper low (blue arrows) to the north. Right now TD 18 is over the warmest waters and lowest wind shear for the next 2-3 days. But look at the Gulf on Water Vapor.
Not only does upper level dry air cover the Gulf, but strong SW winds rotating around the upper trough over the Rockies should provide a block for us and turn Rafael to our east. The question I have is will this SW flow remain? Or will the upper trough lift out as Rafael will be a slow mover.
The Spaghetti Plots have that uncertainty once the system gets in the Gulf. Models are in agreement/consensus in days 1-3, but beyond look at the spread.
One of the outliers is the European that is the farthest to the south towards Mexico. NHC indicates confidence beyond 3 days is VERY LOW. As I mentioned yesterday, Rafael may never reach land and just wander around weakening over the Gulf. I'll have another update after 3 PM Stay tuned!
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