Surprise, Surprise, the 2025 Hurricane Outlook from NOAA came out today (6-8 weeks behind all the others), and it is calling for a slightly above normal season. Gosh, that's sticking your neck out there! Has any seasonal outlook come out calling for a below-normal/less active season? If any of you out there know of one, tell me and I'll look it up. My motto while I was doing the daily weather was simple. I'd rather be the only one right instead of wrong like everyone else. Today? It's all about "what does the model say?". Here it is.
Translation of the above...16 named storms, 8 become hurricanes, with 4 reaching major (Cat 3+) status. All this nonsense about giving a wide range. C'mon. My friends at WeatherBell Analytics came out with this graphic back in April
The red shaded areas indicate where the better/higher chances for landfall will happen. We are barely on the western edge. Hopefully, most storms stay to our east, and my feelings tend to favor a less active season due to the much cooler water temps compared to last year. Today's wide view has lots of Saharan Dust pouring off Africa. That's typical.
I'm sure many alarmists are saddened by no May storm activity in the Atlantic so far.. I've seen the weather guy on YouTube daily point out waves coming off of Africa. So? The dust will kill it. Nope, gotta give the folks a reason to be nervous and keep watching. I promise, there will be a First Alert, First Impact, First Warning for a named storm way out in the Atlantic that "might" affect us in 10 days this 2025 season. Geez! NHC is still hoping for something to form in the EPAC.
Yeah, there are hints of a weak rotation, but the hype already has "Alvin is coming!" Back over the states, a huge upper circulation with several spokes of energy rotating around it, dominates the Northeast.
While we're nearing 90 every day, folks up north still have the sweaters and heavy coats.
It's hard to find the leftover frontal boundary across the Gulf Coast. We've almost reached the time of year when it will rain somewhere every day. Storms will be driven by daytime heating and land/sea breeze interaction.
Not many saw rain today, but where it did pour, the rain was intense with lots of lightning. We call that Summer!
I've often pointed out, once we reach late May, early June, the 7-day becomes useless. Nash called it "the rubber stamp forecast". Dan Milham called it the MOTS (More Of The Same) Forecast. I just called it "useless". Finally, I was at St. Edwards the Confessor School in Metairie for their annual end-of-the-year awards ceremony. For 20 years, I've presented the Paula Zabrecky (my late wife) Scholarship to a deserving student chosen by the faculty. Unfortunately, the full cost of tuition is greater than what remains in the scholarship fund. Step in Principal Dr. Tom Becker, who suggested we keep it going, but in smaller amounts. Brilliant idea. I suggested we honor Paula's best friend and art teacher, Carolee Miller.
And the first winner of the Carolee Miller Art Stipend award is Sophia Trapani. Congrats! Stay tuned!
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