Tropics Quiet Around Globe, Gabrielle Might Be Coming To Eastern Atlantic?

On this Labor Day weekend, the northern Gulf is enjoying a very nice afternoon as showers are confined along the coast & offshore, and lower dew points have given us a good feel to the air despite being 90+.  Not only don't we have a Tropical threat this weekend, but no one else does either.  I mean, no one.  Here's the views from around the World.

We have one weak Tropical Storm in the EPAC, but to have ZERO Hurricanes/Typhoons anywhere at the peak of the hurricane season?   What is going on?  Remember, the alarmists told us a warming atmosphere (Global warming) would give us stronger & more frequent storms.   Humm?  I don't have an answer, except let's keep it that way for another couple of weeks.  Even if we get active in October, fronts start coming, and hurricanes don't like cold air.  Currently, only the EPAC has a named storm. (Kiko)

NHC is highlighting a large area for possible development out across the central Atlantic as the Saharan Dust layer is weakening.  Several models do make it a storm for later this week.  All early signs indicate it will make the turn to the north long before threatening the U.S.  There is another boundary across the northern Gulf, but no model has anything forming.

The upper Eastern Trough is expected to hang around for another 10-14 days, and that NW upper flow will block any storms from us.

Temperatures over most of the nation are delightful on this Labor Day weekend.  We even have dew points in the 60s to near 70.  It's still hot, but it doesn't feel so bad.

We'll pick up doing a podcast tomorrow night, focusing on the East Atlantic, where Gabrielle is likely to form.  For just $2/month, you can subscribe to hear & see me again. Go to bobbreck.com and click on podcast.  Enjoy your Labor Day and stay tuned!

Katrina Remembered, No Tropical Threats...For Now

 20 years ago I was 57, newly remarried and at the peak of my popularity.  Ch. 8 was closing in on becoming the most watched News station in New Orleans. We were branded Your Weather Authority and with that came a certain responsibility.  I had to be there on-air for days doing a job for which I was very well compensated.  My regret was I wasn't able to be there for my wife and had her evacuate our 2 dogs up to Folsom where our neighbor had a second house.  My focus had to be on my job as the communicator of weather information that allowed people to make a choice, to stay or leave.  Satellite pictures were grim and the track brought this monster right over SE LA/MS.

This would be the storm of our lifetime for most of us.  How do I tell/convey to my viewers the enormous dangers of choosing to stay.  I, for the first time ever, read the entire message from NWS meteorologist Robert Ricks.  From my tone of voice & the look on my face, it convinced many of you to leave.

"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, perhaps longer".   What? What a gutsy forecast that, unfortunately,  turned out to be reality.  Most of you didn't know that Ch. 8, at that time, was undergoing another ownership change.  The old owners didn't want any of our staff to be hurt and possibly file a lawsuit for injuries that could derail the sale.  So everyone was told to evacuate the station.  John Snell and I were the last to leave escorted by 2 Jefferson Parish deputies to Sheriff Harry Lee's command building on the West Bank.  I was off the air at a time my viewers needed me the most.  I felt helpless, hopeless and depressed.  But it would get worse.

We found with daylight that 3 levees totally failed allowing 80% of the city to go under water.  A group of Ch. 8 staffers were allowed to return to the East Bank only to find Ch. 8 had 3 feet of water inside.  My car, a Jeep Sport was submerged.  Luckily, Rob Masson parked his car up on higher ground near the Jeff. Davis overpass to I-10.  He and I tired to drive back to my townhome in Metairie, but found that Causeway was flooded.  What happened to Brenda?  Was she safe? We had no cell phones back then.  Going around the western part of Lake P. on I-55, we made our way back to Rob's house in Mandeville where we spent the night without power or food.  The next day we were able to make it up to Folsom in my search for Brenda.  When we got to my neighbor's house, Brenda had already left for Dallas where her sister lived.  Rob & I headed back to the base of the Causeway where the Causeway Police had satellite phones & FOOD!!!  Ch. 8 had us drive to Mobile where we had a sister station (Ch. 10).  After a while(3 days), we were able to locate Brenda in Dallas.  Those were the longest days of my life not knowing if your loved one was safe.  Since Ch. 8 was under water for 3 weeks and off the air for 10 days, I flew out of Mobile to Love Field in Dallas.  I had no clothes (was wearing a tee shirt & shorts from Rob's son), no supplies & no money.  Fortunately, St. Farm advanced me $2,000 to get clothes & supplies.  This storm affected all of us, some worse than others.  At least I was reunited back to the woman I loved.  Many weren't.

If you've been watching the various local & national stations Hurricane Katrina anniversary specials, 3 things stay out to me. Devastation, Destruction & Resilience.   We are New Orleans. We are special and our way of life might be knocked down, but it will never be knocked out.  Another Hurricane like Katrina & Ida (2021) will threaten us.  It is why I started my podcast this year.  Today's guess was David Bernard.  You can watch & hear that video IF you subscribe to my podcast at bobbreck.com

For $2/month (7 cents/day), you can archive any past podcasts including with David.  Give it a try.  IF or when a hurricane approaches, I'll help you make that decision to stay or leave, just like in Katrina.  Fortunately, this Labor Day weekend, we have no threats locally.  A deep upper East Coast trough has brought down another frontal boundary that will drift down into the 
Gulf.  No models develop anything on it.

With the Gulf & Caribbean quiet for now, NHC is watching the MDR for next week.

At the moment, it sure looks like we'll get well into September before we have any tropical issues.  Go enjoy what many call the final weekend of summer.  I may not post tomorrow if I have nothing to talk about.  That's why I have guests on my Podcast.  Give it a try.  Stay tuned!

MDR Showing Signs Of Life? Stormy Friday, David Bernard On Friday's Podcast

As we head into the Labor Day holiday weekend, we have no tropical threats around.  So let me plug my new Podcast.   Part of doing a Podcast was the ability to involve my loyal WVUE Facebook followers (139K+) to hear & see me & my guests.  My first guest tomorrow is a former colleague & Chief Meteorologist at FOX 8, David Bernard. The podcast for Friday runs almost 30 minutes, and I think you'll find it entertaining, enjoyable, and knowledgeable as David shares his new career opportunity.  BUT, you must subscribe ($2/month) to hear & see us at bobbreck.com

Your suggestions for whom you'd like me to interview were terrific, and I will do my best to get them on.  But subscribing is more than just guests.  The main focus at this time of the year will be on Hurricanes. The first three months of the 2025 season have been quiet across the northern Gulf coast, but that may be changing for the 2nd through 4th week of September as the MJO drifts into the favorable (rising air) phase over us. So go sign up now and start listening to what I have to say.  I can only post so much on my WVUE Facebook page.  Come join our Podcast as the price is so inexpensive.  Speaking of the Tropics showing signs of life, NHC has hatched in an area over the MDR for possible development.

There is a mid-level swirl outside the hatched NHC area to the west, but it appears to be at such a low latitude that it would run into South America and not develop.  Several models are now picking up on the wave over Africa and developing it.  But that is two weeks away from us IF it came into the Gulf, and that is not likely.  Why?

The Caribbean appears to have too much westerly wind shear (Perhaps caused by storms forming over the EPAC?), plus, there is an unusually deep upper trough over the Great Lakes that is bringing a NW upper flow down to us.  That is expected to continue into the first two weeks of September, meaning any storms should recurve to the north before reaching the Gulf.  The second half of September could be a different setup.

That NW flow could bring us a rainy Friday as a complex of storms is forming to our northwest. Note the difference in temps under the cloud cover & rain.

Without showers today, we're back above 90.

Maybe with higher rain chances, the next few days will be less hot?  Not done with summer yet.  Tonight's Podcast will focus on where we MIGHT see the next name storm form.  But you have to sign up to hear my ideas at bobbreck.com. David Bernard is tomorrow's guest. Sign up now!  Stay tuned!

Katrina Week Videos, Bob On FOX Weather, Gulf Still Unsettled

If you've been watching TWC, Network Newscasts, FOX News/Weather, you know this is the 20th anniversary week of Hurricane Katrina.   Katrina was the beginning of an extremely active period of SE LA/MS Landfalling storms.  Many of those storms were major (Cat. 3,4 & 5). I grabbed these images off The Weather Channel.

Whew!  We had way more landfalling storms than during the past 50 years.  Not since Betsy (1965) and Camille (1969) had we experienced a major Hurricane.  So far so good this year, but we are approaching the most active period for storm formation.  It's why I have been plugging you to subscribe to my new Podcast that will help guide your decision-making when the next hurricane threatens. Just go to bobbreck.com to sign up.

My first guest this Friday is former FOX 8 Chief Meteorologist David Bernard who will explain why he left broadcasting and is into a new career helping young people cope with severe weather.   But you can't hear or see David unless you subscribe to my Podcast for $2/month (7 cents/day).  I will have many other guests down the road when the weather isn't the focus.  Here is a small sample of what that interview will be like.

Today, the Tropics remain dead with only Fernand moving into the open Atlantic.

The waves coming off of Africa are being squashed by the lingering Saharan Air Layer.  No models see anything during the next 7-10 days. The center of the Atlantic ridge remains far east, leaving an avenue for any storms to turn to the north well before reaching the U.S. 

In addition, the East Coast upper trough seems to be hanging around for the next week.  That will protect us from any tropical threats well into September. The Gulf still has clusters of storms, but none show rotation.

The current NW upper flow may bring down several disturbances during the next 5-7 days.

So many of the eastern states are enjoying cooler temps and less humid air.  Memphis has a dew point of 47!

The next two days will have higher rain chances under that NW upper flow, but another weaker front could get near us for the holiday weekend.  All in all, not a bad way to end August.  Seems every past Labor Day weekend we were watching Hurricanes.  Not this year! FYI, I will be on the FOX Weather Channel's (Cox 37) Hurricane Katrina special tonight at 7:30 PM.  Stay tuned!