Humberto is Weakening. Imelda is Named, Swirl Is In Gulf

 We have two named systems east of Florida, but there is finally a swirl of clouds down over the Gulf.  Since the Gulf swirl is in a hostile environment of dry air & wind shear, NHC isn't taking about it.  They are focused on Major Hurricane Humberto & newly named Tropical Storm Imelda.  Both systems are predicted to stay well offshore from the East Coast.  We begin with Humberto, who yesterday was a Cat. 5. Imelda is on the left with Humberto on the Right.

Clearly, Humberto is the better defined & stronger system.

Hurricane Humberto still is a powerful storm, but he's weakened some from yesterday.  NHC hasn't made any drastic changes in his future path.

You can see by the wave heights how much bigger & stronger Humberto is.  But Imelda is getting stronger as she heads over the Gulf stream.

But Imelda cannot turn westward due to the location of an upper low over the eastern Gulf.

IF the future tracks of both these storms verify, the impacts to the U.S. will be minimal.  Which brings me back to the Gulf.

There clearly is a swirl on the visible view well south of us.  But the color infrared show the absence of any T-Storms around it.  The Canadian is the only model that sees it, but it doesn't development it.  However, it does place something in the southern Gulf the second week in October.

No other model does that, so let's not get concerned with something that isn't there yet.  What is there is the swirl, but NHC isn't talking about it.   I will watch to see if storms start popping tonight as the upper shear lessens with the trough lifting out.  It's a reason why I haven't placed a call into the "Fat Lady" yet.  My gut tells me there will be a late season tropical threat in the Gulf and it's why you should be signing up for my podcast.

The podcast will supplement my free Facebook daily post and go into detail as to my thinking.  It will not just rehash the discussion from NHC that they spoon feed to local weathercasters.  At $2/month, it's a no brainer at bobbreck.com. In the short term, unless something happens in the Gulf, this will continue to be a very hot & dry week.

It's been a difficult weekend for us football fans.  Except for Tulane's big win, the LSU & Saints games were bummers.  Stay tuned!