Sunday Morning Coldest, Full Precautions Needed, Warm up Next Week

As my podcast described in detail yesterday, our lows this morning barely dipped to below freezing on the South Shore, and the duration was brief (2-3 hours). My subscribers were in the know and easily saved the $2/month charge for viewing my podcast by not running their water.  No need to wait until hurricanes come. Sign up at bobbreck.com, as Winter is far from over.  Our "Pipe Rule" served us well, and there was no need to drip/run your water south of Lake P.  North Shore was a different story as lows were in the mid 20s.  Tonight will be colder, and BOTH sides of the Lake will need to drip the inside faucets, but NOT until after dark. Let's go over the details and review.

Our local NWS office is predicting 26 at MSY on Sunday & 34 for Monday morning.  My suggestion is for those of you north & west of Lake Pontchartrain is start dripping water after dark/6-7 pm.   For us, south of the Lake, start dripping before you go to bed (10-11 PM).  My thinking is the center of the Arctic high will not be over us so the winds are likely to stay up, producing some lake effect on the South Shore.  My gut is saying 27-31 at MSY.  That's too close for comfort, so I will start dripping before I go to sleep. The wind direction will shift from the NNW to NNE overnight.

Computer models have again nailed this Arctic Blast as the upper low is moving over Georgia/SC.

The source region of cold air in Canada is not nearly as cold as several weeks ago, yet the Polar Vortex is driving the chill through the Gulf into the Yucatan & Cuba.  My friend Tom in Tampa reminds me it's Gasparilla parade weekend.  Burrr! for parade watchers.

Miami might get into the 30s for Sunday AM!  Our warm up begins tomorrow afternoon, but it will be a slow process.

With such low dewpoints (teens), the temperature will drop like a rock as the sunsets.  So tonight is the night that all of us must drip the water.  Don't start dripping until temps reach the upper 20s, so as not to cripple the firefighters with low water pressure.

Again, these morning lows for the next 2 days appear to be worst-case scenarios.  IF the winds diminish but stay 5-10+ mph, lows might not get that cold.  Still, let's take precautions so we don't have any pipes bursting.

My next podcast, Monday or Tuesday, will be about John Snell, long-time main senior anchor at Ch. 8. You'll learn about John's start into broadcasting, his current passions (his wife & photography), and some of his past anchors, including Margaret Dubuisson & the late Nancy Parker.  To see & hear John, go to bobbreck.com & become a subscriber. Stay tuned & Stay warm!

Freeze Is Coming, Canada Not That Cold, Rapid Warm Up Next Week

 I'm posting this early so I can prepare my podcast available to subscribers ($2/month) at bobbreck.com. Much like I did during my on-air days, I begin telling you what we know followed by what we don't know.  That storytelling fits whether we're talking about Hurricanes or Freezes.  All channels are reading from the same songbook, and that's OK.  Nobody is explaining what might happen that would change this weekend's hard freezes.  But I will in my podcast coming out around 5 PM.  So what do we know?  The Polar Vortex is diving down into the Southeast as predicted for days bringing another Arctic airmass into the lower 48. The center of the PV is over eastern Iowa.

As Amber Wheeler showed us on FOX 8 this morning, the core of the cold will be to our north & east this weekend. We know from past experiences, a coastal low is likely to form on Saturday. These next two graphics I grabbed off The Weather Channel that will drive the cold air down into Cuba!

Nicondra Norwood on FOX 8 at noon showed these forecast lows for Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Saturday's numbers look reasonable, but 21 at MSY on Sunday?  IF we had a snow cover, 21 could happen.  But without snow makes me think 26 is more likely.  Clearly, most of us will have to run our water based on these predicted temps.

However, when do you need to do that and for how long?  that's what my podcast at 5 PM will detail based on the long standing "Pipe Rule" that has served us well for decades.

So we do know a freeze is coming for the next three nights.  On my podcast, I'll explain why my thoughts are not as pessimistic as all the local channels & NWS are predicting.  It's the degree of the freeze that's important.  Hey Gang, it could be worse.  Look at these photos from my good friend Many in Monroe. Try going down that drive way!

Tree damage is horrific and Mandy remains without power 6 days after the ice storm.  Pray that she gets power back today before the new cold arrives.  Stay tuned!

Nor'easter To Brush East Coast, Freezing Temps Deep Into Florida

Computer guidance has been very consistent in driving a lobe of the Polar Vortex deep into the Gulf south.   This will pull down another Arctic Blast that will be colder than the last one.  Let's compare yesterday's upper air model to today's forecast for Saturday PM.  On top is yesterday's forecast.

Today's forecast sinks the PV lobe into north Georgia, which will result in the Arctic air plunging down to Miami with near-freezing temps on Sunday morning. With that kind of flow, we look into Canada to see the degree of the Arctic air.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Arctic air over Canada is nowhere near as frigid (40-50 below) as two weeks ago.  Is it cold? (15-25 below) Absolutely! But I'm not sure it will be any colder than this past freeze, especially south of Lake Pontchartrain.  Our local office of the NWS agrees.  Here's their predicted morning lows.

Will full precautions be required on BOTH sides of the Lake?  Absolutely, with Sunday morning being the coldest.  I am not doing a podcast today, but I will tomorrow once we get a better handle on where the core of the cold is going.  To see & hear me, you need to become a subscriber ($2/month) at bobbreck.com.  Some of the snow cover has melted today, but there's still a lot not too far to our north.  Yesterday is on the top.

There is still a small stripe across north Louisiana, which is the ice storm remains.  The Lobe of the Polar Vortex is dipping down into the U.S. with a small disturbance coming down over the northern plains.

That Plains disturbance will phase with the main PV diving down into Georgia for this weekend.  that will spark the development of the Nor'easter off the Carolinas this weekend.

No signs of that yet on the surface map.  In addition, we're not seeing below-zero readings yet.  Still, this weekend we'll need to pay attention to the temperatures as they plunge towards freezing.

Note, we will have 3 nights of below-freezing temps SOUTH of Lake Pontchartrain.  Tomorrow's post & podcast will focus on the "pipe rule" and when to run your water.  If everyone starts dripping water way before necessary, then water pressures will dip too low in case a fire breaks out.  No need to run water tonight.  If we all use common sense, this next frigid spell will not be crippling.  Sign up for the podcast at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!

Cold Slow To Leave, Brief Warm Up, Another Weekend Freeze

Several of you had asked about when will the cold linger and get us off the roller coaster temperature ride?  I pointed out the lack of snow cover was allowing air to moderate quickly after a cold frontal passage.  Not so anymore, as the extensive snow cover nearby to our north is resulting in the cold air to linger.

I find it really neat how the rivers and streams & lakes stand out.  But because of the snow cover, temperatures struggle to warm despite bright sunshine. 

Where there is snow on the ground, temps are in the 30s & 40s.  Where there is no snow, temps warm into the 50s & 60s.  The current upper pattern has the eastern upper trough backing off to the NE and that will allow for a brief warm up for us.

But the bottom graphic is the upper air forecast for Saturday with a big dip digging into the Southeast.  Since the axis is to our east, we'll stay dry.  However, since it's so far to the south, another Arctic Blast is coming for this weekend, perhaps even colder than the last one.

I am encouraged that the new Arctic is not as extreme up in Canada.  A week ago, we had them 40-50 below zero.  Now it's only 20-30 below.  IF the upper trough position becomes reality, we'll be dealing with several mornings of hard freezes for BOTH sidse of Lake P.  I will do a podcast today, expanding on things to watch regarding this next round of freezing weather.  To see the podcast, you must be a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  The cost is $2/month.   John Snell will be my podcast guest next week, so go sign up to see and hear us.  

Those are pretty scary morning lows coming for Sunday & Monday.  I'll get into my thoughts on my podcast coming out after 5 PM today.  Stay tuned!

Arctic Cold Keeps Coming, More Freezes, Mardi Gras At Copeland Tower

If you are a subscriber to my Podcast (bobbreck.com), you know all about the Polar Vortex and what it takes for us to get cold and STAY cold.  Earlier in this Winter season, the West Coast was getting hammered with rain, snow & cold, while we were mild to warm.  An upper ridge was over the Southeast, keeping the cold air away.  During the past 10 days, that pattern flipped to an East Coast upper trough (Polar Vortex) that rotates around lobe after lobe of air from the Arctic.  The result has been a huge increase in the snow cover much farther to the south. The top is the snow cover from last Friday.

The bottom is from this morning.  Wow!  What a change from New Mexico over the Ohio/Tenn. Valleys!  It really shows up on satellite views.

Everything inside the yellow line is snow/ice on the ground.  When I zoom in, you can see the rivers & valleys.

With such nearby snow cover, the Arctic air doesn't modify much despite sunshine.  Another hard freeze is expected tonight, so full precautions will be required, including running/dripping water after 9 PM. MSY dropped to 27 this morning, breaking the record (29) set back in 1988.  With clear skies and light winds, Tuesday morning might be colder.  NWS has warnings up for the whole state.

Nicondra showed us these lows, which would tie the record tomorrow at MSY.  So when will the cold leave?  Not anytime soon.  In fact, it could get colder this weekend because the lobe of the Polar Vortex is predicted to be deeper over the SE.

The top and middle graphics are current, while the bottom is for Saturday PM.  Yikes!  Look at how deep the dip is.  Since the axis of the trough is to our east, we have no threat of any precipitation.  But it should mean another snowstorm for the Northeast.

The Gulf is covered in clouds, but I see no return flow coming before next week.  Any warm-up will be brief before colder weather returns.

Wow!  Look at those lows later this week into the weekend.  That's a serious hard freeze!  I will probably do a Podcast on the next cold blast that could be the coldest in years.  You'll need to subscribe ($2/month) at bobbreck.com.  Finally, on a brighter note, yesterday was our Mardi Gras Ball at Copeland Tower.

Our King & Queen were Emile & Inez Siegrist, assisted by maids Valerie Adams & Gracie Loisel. Valerie was joined by her 2 best friends, Mindy & Becky.

Of course, Ms. Valerie's escort was the little fella.   Besides the great Copeland food & drinks, one of the highlights was Ken Jenkins' Shoes!

If that doesn't make you smile Gang, nothing will.  Stay warm & stay tuned!