Severe Threat Later Today, Much Colder Monday & Tuesday

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center)has not backed off on the severe potential tonight and tomorrow for a large area of the eastern United States. The reason is that a vigorous upper-level dip in the jet stream is diving down the central Plains and will be over the Northeast by late Monday.  It is pulling up warm air from the Gulf, colliding with Arctic air diving out of Canada.

SPC has expanded their level 3 severe risk for tonight into Monday (middle graphic), increasing it to a level 4 for Monday along the eastern states. It should be mainly a wind damage event for South LA/MS, with the Tornado threat staying farther to our north.  However, damage is damage whether it's from straight-line winds (very likely) or small tornadoes (very unlikely).  There are Tornado Watches out for many states, but this system is just getting started.

Severe storms are developing in the warm air sector, while blizzard conditions are north and west of the surface low.

 

The only limiting factor right now is the low-level moisture (dew points 60+) is confined to the Gulf Coast.  That will change overnight as the upper energy rounds the base of the trough in Texas.  

Visibilities are near zero because of the dust.  That energy will help ignite T-Storms along the southern end of the front.  It should reach us between 10 PM -2 AM, long after most of us are asleep.  Make sure you have your phone by your bed and have your FOX 8 Weather App ready to go in case warnings are issued.  Check on FOX 8's late weather programs tonight before you go to bed.

This will be a short 2-day cool-down and you'll need to protect your tender plants, especially on the North Shore.   I suspect the main wind damage will stay well to our north with the greatest upper energy, but we need to pay attention just in case the southern end of the squall line turns severe.  Heavy coats and sweaters are needed Monday & Tuesday.  Stay tuned!