Arthur Coming To NW Gulf? Landcane Bringing Flood Threat? Podcast This PM

 For years Weather Wantabees have been coming up with terms to describe weather extremes. Some examples are Snowmageddon, Super Storm, and now Landcane.  Yes, the internet is going nuts with all kinds of scenarios describing what MIGHT happen in the next few days along the northern Gulf.  Take a look at these.

The bottom is a takeoff on Hurricane Camille back in 1969...Camille, she was no lady.  I have to give these folks credit for being creative.  But what is the point of increasing anxiety when there is so much UNCERTAINTY involved in a complicated forecast situation?  Let's go over what we do know before trying to figure out what we don't know.  There is a long leftover frontal boundary from Texas to Georgia.

There is a low level swirl inland over Mexico with most models bringing it back to the NE later this week.  As  WeatherBell Analytic's Joe Bastardi has been pointing out for weeks, the MJO is in phase 8, which is the favorable phase (rising motion).  He alerted his subscribers that an early season (June) storm was likely.  Now models are trending that way.

The most important question is...will this disturbance move back over the open water of the Gulf?  Well, even if it doesn't, Joe reminds us of Tropical Storm Allison back in 2001 that flooded Houston and much of south Louisiana and looked like a hurricane on radar as it passed north of us (hence Landcane)

Our local weathercasters have informed us that the rest of this week will be Alert/Impact/Warning days.  I prefer to use the term "Pay Attention Time" as Zack pointed out this morning that there will be areas of flooding rain potential.  Right now models are focused on Houston to Lake Charles.

But what if that area is farther to the east?  Then we'll need to PAY ATTENTION.

Zack pointed out such a scenario this morning.  But we all know when a system is weak and ill-defined, models do not handle the solution very well.

 

I grabbed the above graphics from The Weather Channel this morning where Jim Cantore focused the system right on Houston.   Hey, all I want you to know is there still remains high UNCERTAINTY and it's why I will have an afternoon podcast giving you my feelings.  To view the podcast, you must be a subscriber.

NWS has alerted us of the increasing risk on their website.

The predicted rain totals are greater north of Lake Pontchartrain, but even the South Shore should get 2-4".  The main rain area has pulled to our north today with only a few showers around this afternoon.

This week will certainly be a wet one.  The benefit will be less hot temperatures.  I'm preparing to do my next podcast later this afternoon.  Come sign up to see & hear WHAT DOES BOB THINK? Stay tuned!