NHC Increases/Expands Northern Gulf Tropical Threat, Models Clueless

 Based on current satellite views, NHC expanded westward & increased upward the possibility for tropical development the next 3-7 days.  I have mentioned in the past, computer models are more accurate the stronger and well defined a storm/hurricane is.  Models don't do very well with ill defined & weaker systems like the one we now have over the eastern Gulf.  Let's begin on what we know and dig into what might be going on.  NHC increased the chance for development from 20 to 30% at 7 days out.

On the color infrared view, I don't see any cluster of storms around a single core.  Rather, it appears there are several mid level swirls.

With the swirl over the Gulf, I've drawn what appears to be upper level outflow (powder blue arrows) forming that could enhance low level inflow.  Watching FOX Weather, I grabbed these graphics.

They have a low drifting northward and then westward following the model guidance.  However, what I'm seeing is a SW movement off of Fort Myers.

Currently, there are 2 distinct clusters moving in different directions.  The one inland over land is moving NNW while the one west of FMY is drifting SW.  Right now we are protected by a surface high parked right over us and that might be why the cluster of storms over the eastern Gulf is moving to the SW?  Also, NWS is indicating an upper high (Heat Dome) will build in over us preventing any system from coming into Louisiana.

So what we do know is the Gulf , despite very warm surface waters, remains a hostile upper environment.  That should limit any development in the short term.

What I will be watching are whether wave heights start increasing.  At the moment there is nothing to suggest surface development and what we're seeing on satellite views is more upper levels.  IF history is any guide, there have been several storms develop over the northern Gulf in late July & August.  All stayed offshore and moved westward into Texas.  On top is T.S. Abby in 1964.

The middle track is Hurricane Alicia in 1983 with the bottom being T.S. Eduoard in 2008.  My thinking is whatever forms will take one of 2 scenarios.  One takes the center to the north along Florida's west coast and then heads inland to the NE giving us no impacts.  The other is a center meanders down over the central Gulf and is blocked by the building upper heat dome keeping the system well south of LA/MS.  There maybe some tide & seas impacts next week.  IF something begins to develop, I will have a special podcast Saturday or Sunday.  You'll have to be a subscriber to see and hear what I think so go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

Of course, with the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo kicking off next Thursday, I'll be focusing on fishing weather.

So go to tarponrodeo.org and get registered.  Even if you don't have a boat, don't fish, live in Hammond, Indiana, you can register to have an opportunity for the $10,000 Grand Prize that I will announce from the Otto Candies Pavilion next Saturday night.  The smoke has gotten better in some cities in New England, but it's still bad in others.

There is a rain system coming out of Canada that should improve the fire situation for this weekend.  For us, it's all about the heat.

Don't wait for the next Gulf threat to form.  Go sign up for my podcast today.  Stay tuned!