The biggest news today is Colorado State University has lowered the number of named storms expected this year to single digits. The long term 30 year average is 14, but CSU now says we're likely to see less than 10. Blame it on a developing super strong El Nino off of South America that should result in strong westerly upper shear across the Caribbean & Atlantic that will limit formation. Here are the new CSU numbers compared to their previous ones.
I will go into more detail on my next podcast that will come out tomorrow. To watch/listen to what does Bob think?, you have to go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.
The cost is only $2/month to hear my thoughts/opinions that are based on what I see and not what NWS or NHC is saying. For instance, NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) has no mention of any development for the next 7 days. However, what is in the SW Gulf today?
Clearly, a cluster of T-Storms has formed, but NHC isn't talking about it since no model sees it. At the very least, I see this area drifting northward bringing increasing rain chances later this week. Actually, I see two clusters of storms that appear involved with upper lows.
It's information like this that you'll find in my podcast. Go sign up before our next tropical threat comes. Otherwise, it's basic summertime weather for most of the nation.
MSY received .24" inches of rain this afternoon cooling us down while Dallas topped 100 with no rain around them.
A look at the FOX 8 Extended Outlook sees a ramp up in rain chances for this weekend into next week. Could that be some of the topical moisture down over the SW Gulf being drawn northward?
Finally, Super Typhoon Bavi has weakened down to a Cat. 3, but it's still a strong storm.
On the current forecast track, Taiwan would be on the weaker side of Bavi. Let's hope this strong El Nino summer prevents any major hurricane from forming in our part of the World. Stay tuned and go sign up for tomorrow's podcast!
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