Invest 97-L Not Moving Much, Models All Take It To Texas.

 Just got back from a wonderful concert in Kenner Rivertown tonight.  Looking at satellite and radar loops show me Invest 97-L in about the same place as it was this afternoon.  Not sure what that means since all model tracks take it to Texas.  Let's begin with the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook which has increased chances for development up to 70%.

As you can see, all models bring it to the upper Texas coast and not here.  What bothers me is the lack of motion tonight plus models don't do well with ill-defined centers.

The water vapor view has a "shear zone" across our state with a SW upper flow over us with northern Louisiana in a ENE flow.  I remember one of my hurricane mentors explain when a storm slows down or stalls, it often means it's changing direction of forward motion.  Radar has most rainfall offshore right now.

A recon flight is scheduled for Monday morning and we'll know then if Invest 97-L has a closed low level circulation.  This is a very small system and even if it headed northward towards us, the greatest impact would be heavy rainfall (3-5").  I'll have an update after the NHC 10 AM update tomorrow.  Stay tuned!