Since there is no news regarding our current heat wave, we focus on the Tropics. The Atlantic Basin is dead with nothing expected for the next 7-10 days. However, the Climate Prediction Center does highlight an area off the African coast for possible development NEXT week. Note the brown shading over the Caribbean indicates the graveyard for any development.
The bottom is valid for the first week in September keeping the EPAC active with only that slight chance over the Atlantic MDR. I've circled 3 areas with some disorganized cloud clusters today.
2 of the clusters are over the Gulf both the result of upper air lows. That shows up on water vapor loops.
With the upper low over Florida, there is a splitting of the flow over the northeast Gulf creating enhanced lift & T-storms. NHC seems to have no interest, but remember Bertha formed from an upper low. Perhaps it's the MJO being in phase 6 (sinking air) that NHC doesn't expect development. The MJO favorable areas remain over the Pacific where Lala exploded back to a Cat. 4 hurricane overnight.
The current "Super El Nino" should keep our part of the World quiet for at least another week. Several models do hint that a storm will form coming off of African during the first week in September. plenty of time to watch.
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Otherwise, it's still all about the August heat. Don't forget to go sign up to watch today's podcast at bobbreck.com. Stay tuned!
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