Recon aircraft found a well-defined low-level circulation earlier this afternoon, allowing NHC to upgrade PTC 5 to Tropical Depression 5. However, the plane has failed to find wind speeds greater than 40 + mph, so they have kept this disturbance on their 4 PM advisory as a T.D. Some of the offshore buoys have winds approaching 40 mph, so it's only a matter of time before NHC names it Tropical Storm Edouard. Look at the recent buoy reports.
This system has moved from south of Grand Isle last night to south of Morgan City at 4 PM.
Even though satellite views indicate no rapid intensification, NHC has upped the wind speeds at landfall to 60 mph making this a potent Tropical Storm for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts. Their track forecast has changed little.
This will not have any major impacts for SE LA/MS besides giving us some squally heavy rain bands on Tuesday. The real flood threat is farther to our west.
On today's podcast, I went into the possible effects of the MJO on the lack of development so far for TD 5. To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month. If you were a subscriber last summer and have not received any of the podcasts in the last 4 days, you'll need to re-subscribe, as your credit card expired.
You can go back and listen to my podcast from 2 weeks ago explaining the MJO. Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the cluster of storms east of Florida and what's left of Dolly.
So you can stay with my free Facebook post, or subscribe to my podcast that goes into detail that isn't in the NHC's discussion. For $2/month, it's an easy choice. Stay tuned!
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