Dry Spell To Continue, Warm Halloween

 October started off with a wet first week with 2.44" falling at MSY.  That total means we will not be in the top ten driest Octobers.  Some of you have commented about it being so dry, but historically, October is our driest month.  Only the last 3 weeks have been dry.

I think the more telling statistic is how warm we've been continuing the warmth from this past summer.  I suspect we will easily be in the top 5 warmest Octobers as the next 7 days appear likely above normal.

So why have we stayed so warm after having the first real cold front last week?  It's the upper air pattern that keeps reverting back to the upper trough over the west and a ridge over the east.

What we have set up is called an "Omega block" with low pressure over the Rockies & Bahamas and an upper high in between.  This often results in a stalled surface pattern that doesn't change for days, sometimes weeks.  As the extended shows, there MIGHT be a front approach us for next weekend on Halloween night, but most of this week will remain warm & dry.

It is winter-like behind that stalled frontal boundary with most of the eastern states enjoying "Indian summer".  The turning of the leaves producing Fall colors is in full swing.

This picture was taken by my friend Carolee Miller in Pennsylvania while she was attending her 60th High School class reunion.  That's what I miss about my time in Ann Arbor.

If you have lived in the South all your life, you can't believe how the leaves put on a show before the coming of the cold & snow.  Sometimes we see a little display of colors, especially north of Lake Pontchartrain.  You can see the colors on line without having to go north into the "cooler" air.  Stay tuned!

Josephine is Gone, One More Name to Come?

I'm back from 3 gorgeous days at Orange Beach celebrating the 80th birthday of my St. Farm agent, fishing Captain & best man at my wedding next month, Hylton Petit.  He had his whole family there, and we enjoyed some great food & plenty of liquid medication. Pictures say it all, as we were feeling little pain!

It was an amazing sunset at Orange Beach to begin the 81st year on the planet for Captain Hylton Petit.  Now back to weather.  Josephine is now just a storm moving away out into the north Atlantic.  Is she the last named storm for this season?  Perhaps.  But maybe not.

The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is highlighting an area over the Bahamas for the first week of November.   The GFS model is indicating just that.

IF the GFS proves correct, the next named storm would be Kyle.  Right now, there is a deep upper trough off the East Coast which would be hard for a surface system to form.

That setup is giving us some great weather that should last into next week.

If you waiting for more cold air, it's not coming until next month.  The cold is building up in Canada, but it can't come south until the upper pattern changes.

So get out and enjoy San Diego in New Orleans.  I do see some really cold air coming the first week into November.  My next podcast next week will be on my time in Orange Beach. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up to see it.  Stay tuned!