AI Models Back Off, NE Gulf Threat Lessens, We Dry Out & Heat UP

One reason NHC isn't highlighting the northern Gulf for possible tropical development is the fact none of the main computer models indicate anything happening.  The only models hanging on to something trying to form are the New AI models.  Even they have backed off from future development for early next week.  We begin with the Euro AI valid for NEXT Monday & Wednesday.

They seem to have something, but there is no closed low like yesterday.  The GFS AI has something, but it doesn't look like much.

Again, they are hinting at something, but there's nothing there yet.  So we keep watching and waiting.  The other focus is on when will the disturbed weather all along the Gulf coast dissipate?

The current upper heat dome is shifting to the East Coast and will slowly push all the areas of low pressure back to the west.  Our drying trend begins this afternoon and should last into this weekend.  Of course, that will mean hotter temps in the 90s returning.

If you want to listen or watch today's Podcast, go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  I give you my opinions as to why tropical development will struggle for the next few weeks.   Don't forget the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is coming next week.  Go to tarponrodeo.org to sign up for a chance at winning the $10,000 Grand Prize.  Stay tuned!

Tropical Hype Has Begun, AI Models Eye NE Gulf Next Week, Tuesday Podcast

 Since this is mainly a hurricane post during the summer, we usually just watch & wait to see if tropical activity develops.  CSU last week decreased the number of named storms (9) for this season based on a strong El Nino developing in the eastern Pacific creating strong upper wind shear over the Atlantic Basin.  Our main computer models (Canadian, Euro, GFS) are NOT seeing any tropical activity for the next 10-14 days.  However, several AI models hint at something developing over the NE Gulf NEXT week.  FOX Weather has been all over this.

They even interviewed a Hurricane expert from Miami.

TWC (The Weather Channel) has been much less dramatic (perhaps because Jim Cantore is on vacation?) and NHC isn't mentioning anything in their daily outlooks just yet.   I will do a podcast tomorrow giving my take as to whether we should be concerned or not, along with the WHYS of those opinions.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.

My podcast costs you $2/month and you can view/listen to them anytime you want on your phone or computer.  Back when I began my career in Tampa in 1971, my mentor (Late Roy Leep) would always refer to areas of "Disturbed Weather" in the Tropics.  We have two such areas today.

We all know the westerly upper shear along with the African Dust layer will keep the MDR mostly quiet this year.  So we look closer in to find clusters of T-Storms.  The next named storm will likely be in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) later this week.

It is showing signs of rotation, but T-Storms remain somewhat disorganized.  That will change and his name will be Douglas.  Back across the Southeast & northern Gulf is a large area of "Disturbed Weather".

North of this boundary is lots of hot & dry air with temps topping 100 in spots.  The challenge for forecasters is where will the heavy flooding rains develop during the next 2 days?   WPC's 7 day rainfall graphic indicates NOT over us with the bullseye over the Rio Grande to our west and off the Florida coast to our east.

In fact, it doesn't give us very much.  However, we all know in the summer, slow moving storms can drop 2-4" in an hour so don't think we have no flood risks.

You can see what the clouds and rains are doing as temps farther to the north are hotter in the sunshine.

We had some lighter showers around this morning, but SE LA/MS is mostly dry this afternoon.  NWS still has us in a level 2 flood risk through tonight.

Until this large area of "disturbed weather" along the northern Gulf Coast dissipates or moves away, let's pay attention to your FOX 8 Weather APP radar to make sure no heavy storms are around.

Rain chances begin to decrease tomorrow and for the rest of this week.  Don't forget to go to tarponrodeo.org and register for this year's Rodeo July 23-26th.

By registering, you'll get a chance for the $10,000 grand prize and you don't have to fish or come down to Grand Isle.  Also, don't forget my next podcast is Tuesday afternoon so go sign up at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!