Tale Of Two Oceans, Dolly Dissipates But Not So Fast, Northern Gulf Swirl

Way back in April, when the first preseason predictions for the 2026 hurricane season came out, the researchers were saying that, with an increasing El Niño coming on, tropical activity would be up in the Pacific Basins and down in the Atlantic Basin.   Kudos to those early predictions, as the central & eastern Pacific have seen 12 named storms while the Atlantic has seen only 4 very weak storms.  The satellite view tells the story.

While the Pacific has one Typhoon (orange), 3 Tropical storms (green), and 3 tropical depressions (purple), the Atlantic has just the remnants of Dolly.

What a different tale of two Oceans.  The Atlantic is essentially dead due to all the dry air and upper lows.

NHC downgraded Tropical Storm Dolly to just a remnant low or open tropical wave at 10 AM based on satellite & buoy information.  However, Dolly has made a comeback this PM.

Look at these two views 5 hours apart.

So the question is, will NHC reverse course and upgrade Dolly back to a Tropical Storm?  My guess is no, at least in the short term, unless the satellite information shows continuing organization.  What I find interesting is that two models keep what's left of Dolly's DNA heading towards Florida and into the Gulf for next week.  1st view is the Canadian model, valid for next Thursday.

They bring Dolly into South Florida before turning her back to the NNE.  The GFS is different.

It takes what's left of Dolly westward well south of us into south Texas.  The Euro sees nothing so far out; I'm not reading much into any solution.  Of more concern is a close in development that could bring significant rains here for this Sunday and next Monday.  I mentioned the lows that were inland yesterday. One swirl has now moved into the northern Gulf south of Pensacola.

The upper Heat Dome over the west is expected to shift eastward north of us.  That would stop the northern Gulf low from moving NNE and start drifting back to the west.  That was shown on both Zack & Grace's FOX 8 programs this morning.

Could we have another Bertha-type system for next week?  Maybe.  NHC is not highlighting this area, and no model develops anything either.  Since we are not in MJO phases 8 or 1, development would be slow and limited.  Still, I want you to pay attention for a "homegrown system".

To learn more about any northern Gulf development this weekend, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Enjoy the final weekend of August and stay tuned!

Dolly Charges Westward, Weekend Concerns For Northern Gulf?

 The 4th named storm of the 2026 season, Tropical Storm Dolly, is racing across the central Atlantic with little change in strength.  Most models bring her towards the northern Virgin Islands late this weekend & weaken her to an open wave due to strong SW upper wind shear. Her low level circulation is well defined, but she remains a lopsided system.

There has been a burst of T-Storms closer to her center this afternoon, but she faces challenges farther to the west.  

I could find only one model (Canadian) that redevelops Dolly early next week that could threaten Florida.   The Canadian is not one of the more reliable models that NHC puts much faith in.

To me, of more concern is the recent model runs that indicate a small circulation might form along the northern Gulf late this weekend.  Right now, I can find several low level swirls all over land.

NHC isn't listing any areas for possible development,  but I'll be watching these small swirls if any of them drift out over the warm waters of the Gulf.  The MJO is drifting towards Phase 7, which still is not the favorable (rising air) phase for our part of the world.  IF something were to form, I'll have a special podcast either Friday or Saturday.  You have to become a subscriber to see & hear what I think.

I appreciate the hundreds of you who have renewed for another year.  Check your credit card statement to see if you have renewed.  Some of you have cards that have expired and will need to re-subscribe on your new card.  There are many weeks left before we're out of danger for this season.  Go sign up today.  Stay tuned!