Significant Rains Coming To Louisiana/Mississippi, JazzFest Timing Could Be Perfect

  We all know how dry it's been this Spring across the Southeast.  That is about to end as a cold front is likely to stall, and coupled with several upper disturbances, produce a band of heavy rainfall.  Where that band set up is not a lock, but WPC's 7 Day rainfall totals are centered just to our north.

The band from east Texas into Alabama might see 5-7" over several days.  SPC's severe outlook quickly weakens any threat as the cold front nears.  Today is an active day to our north.(top graphic)

SPC quickly weakens the threat for Wednesday (Bottom view) Radar is showing some very strong storms moving west to east at 4 PM.

These storms will stay well north today, but the boundary should sink farther to the south for Wednesday.  The 1st 90 degree day (That all channels have been hyping) will have to wait as the upper ridge over Mexico has flattened and the frontal boundary should produce more clouds.

Where the upper flow splits,(orange circle), that is where the severe storms are developing.

You don't see any 90+ to our west, but you do see dew points to 70+.  That means there is plenty of low level moisture that could produce some pop up showers during daytime heating.  The timing of the front appears to give the greatest shower chances after 4 PM Friday through 10 AM on Saturday.

If the timing works out, Saturday PM & Sunday should be delightful.  I believe the FOX 8 extended is too aggressive with the cooler temps.    The South Shore  can no longer see nights in the 40s.  Still, any cool down will be welcomed.  We really could use the rain.  Too bad it's coming for part of this weekend.  Stay tuned!

Storm Timing Near Perfect, Almost Hot This Week, Another Front Next Weekend

 As with French Quarter Fest last weekend, our rainfall timing (coming over night/early AM) has been near perfect leaving behind some great weather for all outside activities.  The cluster that roared through shortly after daybreak has pushed into the Gulf and weakened.

Just like yesterday, today has been sunny, breezy & warm. The upper trough remains over the Rockies 

and will keep the main storm track well to our north for the next few days.

SPC's thinking keeps the severe threat well to our north for Monday (Top) and Tuesday (Bottom).

The next 2-3 days should have no weather issues as no fronts will be around.  In fact, the local NWS is pushing near record warmth with maybe our 1st 90 degree day.  Of course, all local weathercasters follow suit, but I just don't see the upper high settling over us.  We'll be warm, but I believe 90+ is not going to happen yet.  We'll see.

There is another front coming through for Friday, but I think the FOX 8 temps might be a bit too cool, unless we have lingering clouds.  Still, we'll take any fronts before the real heat arrives in 2-3 weeks.  Stay tuned!