T-Storms Form Over SW Gulf, CSU Lowers Hurricane Numbers, Typhoon Bavi To Brush Taiwan

The biggest news today is Colorado State University has lowered the number of named storms expected this year to single digits.  The long term 30 year average is 14, but CSU now says we're likely to see less than 10.  Blame it on a developing super strong El Nino off of South America that should result in strong westerly upper shear across the Caribbean & Atlantic that will limit formation.  Here are the new CSU numbers compared to their previous ones.

I will go into more detail on my next podcast that will come out tomorrow.  To watch/listen to what does Bob think?, you have to go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

The cost is only $2/month to hear my thoughts/opinions that are based on what I see and not what NWS or NHC is saying.  For instance, NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) has no mention of any development for the next 7 days.  However, what is in the SW Gulf today?

Clearly, a cluster of T-Storms has formed, but NHC isn't talking about it since no model sees it.  At the very least, I see this area drifting northward bringing increasing rain chances later this week.  Actually, I see two clusters of storms that appear involved with upper lows.

It's information like this that you'll find in my podcast.  Go sign up before our next tropical threat comes.  Otherwise, it's basic summertime weather for most of the nation.

MSY received .24" inches of rain this afternoon cooling us down while Dallas topped 100 with no rain around them.

A look at the FOX 8 Extended Outlook sees a ramp up in rain chances for this weekend into next week.  Could that be some of the topical moisture down over the SW Gulf being drawn northward?

Finally, Super Typhoon Bavi has weakened down to a Cat. 3, but it's still a strong storm.

On the current forecast track, Taiwan would be on the weaker side of Bavi.  Let's hope this strong El Nino summer prevents any major hurricane from forming in our part of the World.  Stay tuned and go sign up for tomorrow's podcast!

Super Typhoon Threatens Taiwan, Dust, TUTT Lows In Atlantic, No Fish

Super typhoon Bavi has weakened to a Cat. 4 (150 MPH), but still packs quite a punch.  Fortunately, it only brushed Guam and is on a future track that will keep the worst part of the storm away from Taiwan.  The western Pacific basin (WPAC) is the only area of the Tropics that has any current activity.

The Atlantic Basin remains shut down due to extensive Saharan Dust and upper lows (TUTT) that hinder any development.

Computer models are hinting the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) will start to see storms in the 10-14 day time frame, but for our part of the World, things should remain quiet.  For us locally, it's typical summertime heat with spotty storms.

Some folks are getting hammered again this afternoon.

Where it's raining, it's less hot.

We went fishing yesterday afternoon and learned that the heavy rains of the past two weeks have chased all the trout farther outside into saltier waters.  Here's the best thing about our fishing trip.

Despite nearby lightning storms, this is the Shell Beach sunrise.  All was not lost as I had to go get my gear to go down to Grand Isle in 2 weeks.  Remember the Rodeo begins on July 23 to July 25th.

Go to tarponrodeo.org to register for a chance to win the $ 10,000 grand prize.  You don't have to fish or even go to Grand Isle to win.  Also, original subscribers to my Podcast will receive a notice for renewal before August 1st.

If I do a podcast this week, it will be on why we should see no tropical threats for the rest of this month.  Go sign up before the next Gulf tropical threat arrives in August or September.  Stay tuned!