Models Nailed Timing, Perfect for JazzFest & Golf Classic

I got back to Copeland Tower just in time to watch the late 10 PM news last night, and the models pretty much nailed the timing.  Perhaps the intensity of our early storms surprised some, but the storm reports were very few.  That complex was fueled by an upper disturbance that has quickly diminished, leaving mostly dry weather for JazzFest & the Zurich Classic golf tourney.

SPC & NWS is expecting another round to form overnight, and I'm seeing a similar timing to today's storms.  That will be good news as 1) we need more rain and 2) the festivities should not be affected. So far, the T-storm action to our northwest is developing farther to the north.

Even though not much has formed to our NW so far, SPC's severe outlooks indicate they expect more development over the next several days.  We begin with today's severe outlook, followed by Sunday & Monday.

Clearly, the greatest severe threats are farther to our north. We have no fronts coming, so any storm complex overnight will be strictly from an upper disturbance.

You can see how warm temperatures have gotten under the upper ridge over Texas.  Some of that warmth is coming our way for early next week.

 

We could even flirt with our first 90+ day on Tuesday & Wednesday.  That's way too soon!  Finally,

We have all seen the drought monitor that has many areas over the Southeast in extreme to exceptional drought.  That is resulting in a number of wild fires that I captured on Satellite views.

The worst fires have been in southern Georgia & norther Florida.  Bottom line, we need our rainy season to kick in before the gawd awful heat of summer arrives. Enjoy your Sunday.

Warm, Mostly Dry JazzFest Weekend, Orange Beach So Nice

That really good feeling air has left us as dew points are back to 60+.  However, it doesn't feel awful yet since highs are only in the low 80s.  The brisk easterly winds make it feel rather comfy out.  We have two big functions this weekend, with the PGA Zurich golf classic and the first weekend of JazzFest.  What I'm seeing is the lack of any cold front blowing through, so the only trigger for showers will be daytime heating.  I'm not saying rain chances are zero, but any showers should be spotty & brief.  Best chances for rain arrive late Saturday evening, but even then, I'm not convinced the predicted 60% will happen.  That might be a tad too aggressive, and here's why.

The major upper trough is over the Rockies and off the West Coast.  We have mainly a zonal (west to east) flow over us with several weak disturbances moving through.  There is no cold frontal boundary right now to trigger storms.

That is why I'm leaning toward a mostly dry forecast into the weekend.  That could change IF a front forms and heads our way.

All in all, prepare for a summer-like weekend with the usual hats & sunscreen precautions.  I'm enjoying the nearly deserted beaches at Orange Beach with my Fiancée Valerie. Spring breakers are gone, and the kids are still in school.  It's a perfect time to be at the beach for us seniors!

The view is awesome & I found this little ditty while walking the beach.  Some Dad making a sand castle with his child.  Priceless!  Stay tuned!