Boundary Has Weakened, Fewer Storms Wed-Thursday, Cold Front Easter Sunday

 The surface boundary that has enhanced our shower activity for the past 2 days appears to be weakening/dissipating.  That should mean our shower coverage might be less than today's 50-60%.  Fewer storms should allow us to reach the low to mid 80s the next several days.

The storms over land are the result of daytime heating, while the cluster off the mouth of the river is the remains of that boundary.

The FOX 8 extended indicates 40% chance of rain the next 4 days.  I'm thinking Wednesday & Thursday will see fewer showers.  Friday might see an increase as an upper low over Mexico lifts to the NE.

With the upper flow over the nation from the SW, no cold fronts can reach us.  Models are showing a moderate front coming for Easter Sunday, but it's too soon to determine exact timing.

The upper energy with Sunday's storms will be well to our north and that should mean any severe threat here will be slim to none.  The main concern might be heavy rains as this will be a slow moving front.

Bottom line, after 2-3 weeks of dry weather, rain chances have returned. You need to keep some rain gear handy.  Let's see if my thinking is correct for less shower coverage (20%) for Wednesday & Thursday.  Otherwise, we're beginning to feel and look more like summer time.  Stay tuned!

Daily Rain Chances, But Why? No One Tells Us

I watched several weathercasts today, and they all show the SE streamline wind flow from the Gulf increasing our low-level moisture at the surface.  But no one seems to connect what is happening at the various upper levels that might help explain why only a small band of rain has been drenching SE Louisiana the past two days.  Frankly, all I can see is a boundary that has formed right over us, as there are no distinct features on the Water Vapor imagery.  Let me begin at the surface, where the nose of the Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High extends westward across the northern Gulf.

Low level Gulf moisture/humidity has increased, but why isn't it raining in Houston, Lafayette to our west, or Biloxi, Mobile & the beaches to our east?  I've drawn in this boundary (lime circle) that is the focus for numerous showers today.

Water Vapor has dry air on either side of this feature, but why has it formed over us? And why will it stay over us?

What frustrates me is that our local weathercasters don't point this boundary out (except Zack on FOX 8's morning weather) and just say it's because of the return flow off the Gulf that is causing our showers.  In fact, most of the noon weather programs didn't even show a satellite loop, just the damn model forecast.  Clearly, we have no fronts around as most of the nation has warmed up.

There are lower dew points to our east & west that define the surface boundary, but what is causing it, and why will it remain over us?  because the models say so!  It sure does make a difference where it sets up. Note the 80s to our west, where they have more sunshine.

There are higher rain chances later this week due to weak upper air disturbances moving through the SW flow.  On Easter Sunday, a cold front could make it a stormy day before we dry out for early next week.  Don't get me wrong, we need this rain, but will anyone try to take a crack at explaining what I'm seeing on the satellite & WV loops?  Nope, let's look at the models!  Stay tuned!