Downplaying Sunday Severe Risk, Some Welcomed Rain Is Coming

As I mentioned yesterday, the risk for severe weather in SE LA/MS is very low as the upper energy with the current system coming out of the Rockies will stay well to our north.  In fact, the main energy now over Colorado will sink to the SW and head over the Baja for this weekend.  That keeps a SW flow over us, meaning any cold front will stall before reaching us. Models show that happening with the Kansas low racing towards the Great Lakes.

Watch what the GFS model does with the Colorado disturbance.  It takes it over the Baja for Saturday night.

The bottom is valid for next Wednesday, with the energy coming at a much lower latitude over us.  That to me means next Wednesday will have a way higher severe risk if the model is correct. Will we see some rain this weekend?  Sure looks likely late Saturday into early Sunday.  However, my feeling is that the strongest storms stay well north as the front weakens.  SPC's outlooks sure support that thinking. We begin with today's severe risk on top.

The bottom is valid for Saturday with the level one risk including SE LA/MS, but you can see the weakening trend.  They even mention that in their discussion.

The last line is most important...DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT towards the central Gulf Coast.  Every local station I watched is pushing this severe threat for Sunday.  I just don't see it and I explained why, which they don't do.  You can't cry wolf every time a cold front approaches.  I believe next Wednesday's front will bring a much higher severe risk.

We definitely are in a very juicy air mass that has warn air colliding with cold air

and dew points (low level moisture) surging 60+ into Illinois.  What's  missing here will be the upper energy and split in the jet stream.  WPC's heavy rainfall (2-4") outlook for Sat-Sunday keeps the heaviest well north of Lake P.  If we're lucky, like Mardi Gras, the main rainfall will happen after midnight Saturday and be gone shortly after daybreak on Sunday.

Some showers have popped up during daytime heating but should quickly end after sunset.

Again, I believe the severe threat for late Saturday into Sunday is very small compared to the greater severe risk coming next Wednesday.  Finally, don't forget...

Before you go to sleep Saturday night, move your clock forward (Spring Forward) as the time change happens at 2 AM on Sunday,   Stay tuned!

Severe Threat Here Not Likely, Shower Chances higher to Our North.

The current upper air pattern has a trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the Southeast.  This is bringing colder air to the western states with much-needed snow over the Rockies, while the southern states remain way above normal/average for early March.

The first area of energy over Idaho will move across the northern Plains, well north of us.  It will drag a cold front into a very moist air mass, creating the potential for some severe storms.  SPC highlights the greatest danger areas for Friday and weakens those storms for Saturday.

My gut tells me the upper energy stays far north and that should lessen any severe risk here.  In addition, the cold frontal boundary will stall out, keeping the heaviest rains from east Texas across north Louisiana into Mississippi & Tennessee.

The orange colors indicate as much as 5-7" of rain may fall over the next 7 days.  As you can see, south of Lake Pontchartrain, amounts are 1-2" at most.

I am downplaying the threat for severe storms here as we do not have a huge temperature contrast behind the front, plus the upper energy remains way north.

We have seen some showers around today, but they were brief and lasted only a few minutes.  More of the same is likely for the next several days.

Most of the showers south of the Lake will quickly end this evening once the sun goes down.  The sun will be going down later next week as the time change (Spring ahead) arrives Sunday morning.

No signs of any cold air coming for the next 7-10 days.  Finally...

These pictures were taken on Monday, coming in from a day of fishing with Captain Hylton and his brother Steve.  I turned the phone around to capture the moonrise.

It got better as we got back to his camp.  Fishing wasn't great (17 trout), but the scenery was terrific.  Even saw 2 gators waking up from a long winter.  And what the heck are those 2 globs down in the Gulf?

Thank goodness it's only March!  I doubt any local weathercaster even mentions them.  Stay tuned!