Gabrielle Coming To Carolinas? Gulf Remains Hostile As Heat Lingers

 All of the chatter on the net & coming from NHC is increasing chances for Gabrielle coming early next week.  That could be, but I think the location is not where NHC has it out over the MDR.  Let me explain. Look at this close in view of the East Coast.

I'm seeing a small rotation east of Daytona Beach.   Both the A I & GFS models have something there for Tuesday morning of next week.  It would not be our problem, but I'm bored and looking for something to talk about!

The A I is on top with the GFS model on the bottom.   Water temps off of New Jersey are very chilly, so if something is to form, it has to happen off the Carolina coast over the Gulf Stream.  NHC isn't talking about it.  Their focus is over the MDR (Main Development Region) over the Atlantic.

They have increased chances for development to 50%, but all models recurve whatever might form to the north before threatening the U.S.   The Gulf and Caribbean remain hostile environments for tropical development due to westerly wind shear over the Caribbean and dry, stable air over the Gulf.

That pretty much shuts down any close in formation for the next 7-10 days.    Here I am trying to get you to subscribe to my new podcast in a summer of no tropical threats yet.

Pretty confident we will have some Gulf threat during the last week in September into the first 3 weeks of October so give me a chance and sign up at bobbreck.com.  During the Hurricane Season I'll have some of my colleagues (Norcross, Cantore, Katz) who are still active in tracking storms.  My guests will not always be about weather so for $2/month, give it a try.   

Until this upper pattern changes, we're on the hot and dry side of the upper ridge. The West has cooled down some, but the real cold air is building over Alaska.

It usually takes two weeks for the Canadian cold to work its way down to the Gulf.  Must stay patient.

Despite all the dry air around, a couple of small showers have bubbled up under the 90+ degree heat.

The extended gives us little hope for any relief during the next week.  With the Tropics dead and local weather boring, I don't have much to talk about.  Except, the Saints will give it another try tomorrow.  With the 49ers QB hurt, I'm staying optimistic.  Saints 20 SF 17.  Who Dat!  Stay tuned!

Bryan Norcross Coming To Podcast, Great Reunion Today, Tropics Remain Quiet

I received confirmation today that nationally renowned Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross will be coming to the Bob Breck Podcast.   Bryan became known for his coverage of Hurricane Andrew over South Florida in 1992 and has such a resume that includes stops with CNN, TWC, NBC & CBS News & FOX Weather, etc.  We have been friends for over 40 years, and I look forward to sharing his life story on a future podcast.

But you can't watch it unless you subscribe to my podcast at bobbreck.com. The cost is $2/month or 7 cents a day.  The podcast supplements my WVUE Facebook post and will expand the discussion IF we get a tropical threat in the Gulf.  If no threats, we'll interview special people that you have asked for.

The beauty of the podcast is that it's on your phone wherever you go in case you have to evacuate.  So far this season, we have had no threats, and the next 10-14 days appear likely to continue that trend.  NHC is watching only one area today.

It's way out over the Atlantic, and indications currently have anything that develops curving around the Atlantic Ridge like previous storms this year.  We're stuck in an upper pattern that will keep us very hot & mostly dry into next week.

The upper trough over the eastern Gulf has pushed the old boundary down towards the Yucatan.

We're still very hot, but the dew points are lower with the northerly flow making it feel less hot.

A few showers have popped up, but most of us are dry.  No rain means 90+ again.

Gosh, that front last week got us thinking summer was gone.   Not so fast!   Speaking of heat.  Today was a reunion with the last two people I was allowed to hire while being Chief Meteorologist at Ch. 8.

Chris Franklin & Kim Vaughn have birthdays this month, and we always celebrate at Drago's with those wonderful charred grilled oysters.  You can see why they call me the "little fella".   Very proud of these two who made me look better.  Enjoy your weekend as we work on getting our guests for future podcasts coming soon.  Stay tuned!