Today's Podcast, Late Week Heat Wave, increasing Rain Chances,Quiet Tropics,

For those of you subscribers to my podcast, I hope you enjoyed the photos & videos taken last week on my visit to the Biltmore Estate in Asheville.  The views were extraordinary and don't do justice to how awesome an experience it was.  You can go to bobbreck.com and sign up to view it.  For $2/month, you get podcasts about my life, my friends & past co-workers and, most importantly, my thoughts about tropical activity.  Go give it a try.  The Tropics are struggling worldwide.  

There is an old frontal boundary off the East Coast that has several small spins, but none of the models develop anything.  NHC gives this system only a 10% chance, which means it won't happen.  so why give it any chance?  Take a look.

The western most low has a well defined low level circulation, but as the color IR shows, it has no weather with it.  However, farther to the east, that spin does have some storms around it.  Until models show development, NHC isn't concerned nor so should we.  What is coming our way is a return of low level moisture that will allow for higher rain chances the rest of this week.

That is a good thing since daily spotty storms help keep us from getting too hot.  All the national networks are going crazy with the intense, extreme heat wave over the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

Right under the center of the upper high, St. Louis is near 100 degrees and that heat will spread eastward as the upper high drifts to the east.  Radar is showing clusters of storms across Florida moving to the west.

Some of these storms could reach us after dark bringing cooling relief.  In the past, we called this basic summertime.  Now it's intense, dangerous & extreme. You can see where it's raining to our east as temps are less hot.

So let's pay attention for the next 3 months if we're working or playing outdoors.  Use common sense, wear hats & sunscreen and remember, it's called SUMMER!  Stay tuned!

NHC Says No, Eastern Heat Wave, Daily Storms Return

 One thing that is clear in this El Nino Hurricane Season is atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic Basin are likely to remain hostile.  Whether it's the strong upper westerly wind shear, or the Saharan Dust layer coming off of Africa, or all the "TUTT" Lows...for a tropical storm and/or hurricane to get going and remain strong, it will be difficult without a favorable (rising air) MJO.  T.S. Arthur formed during a favorable time of the MJO.   That is not likely for awhile.  Look at the conditions over the Tropics today. The dust has shut down the MDR while the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) Lows are everywhere.

It's no wonder NHC only gives a 10% chance for development off the Carolina coast later this week.  Conditions are not there for something to develop.  So the big news for the eastern states is the building heat wave this week.

We are underneath the Heat Dome today and it has capped any daytime heating storms from forming.  Watch what the GFS model does with this Dome beginning with Today on top followed by Wednesday & Friday & then Sunday.

As you can see, the high drifts northward & eastward through Friday.  As the center of it pulls away, we'll see an increase in low level moisture rotate back over us from Florida.  Without the upper high capping daytime heating, expect daily spotty storms to bubble up much like typical summertime.  The bottom view on Sunday has the upper high gone from the East.  But look at where the upper high shifts by mid July.

 

The heat dome reforms over the western states where this week they are under an upper trough and very chilly temperatures.

It was even cold enough for snow at higher elevations!  That will be quite a flip temperature wise if the GFS model is correct.  For us in the short term, we're staying hot but should see increasing rain chances as the upper high drifts away from us.

It's a rare summer day when our state (and those around us) have no rain on radar.

Without any fronts coming this week, any relief from the heat will have to come from daytime heating storms.   Use common sense if working or exercising outdoors for the next 2-3 months!  October seems so far away!

Just remember, a typical summer day has highs 92-96 with heat index up to 105-110.  Can you imagine living in the South BEFORE air conditioning?  Hardy people indeed!  My podcast tomorrow will be about my vacation trip to the Biltmore Estate in Asheville last week.  250 rooms, 65 bathrooms all under 175,000 square feet.  To see and watch how the Rich & Famous lived, sign up at bobbreck.com.  IF anything forms off the East Coast, I'll have another podcast Wednesday or Thursday.  Stay tuned!