Is Bertha Coming To Northern Gulf? NHC Increases Chances, Podcast Coming This PM

 Satellite views clearly show there is a broad circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/America.  NHC has designated this area Invest 91-L and they have started running the Spaghetti model plots.  My take is we must be careful and not assume these model solutions have much skill yet since we don't have a surface center and the initialization point is only a guess.  A Recon aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system on Sunday.  NHC now gives this area a 40%  chance to develop.

 

What I'm seeing is multiple mid level swirls with no concentrated T-Storms around them.  In addition, the water vapor loop has dry air to the north of this system and that should limit any rapid development. 

In addition, wave heights are NOT increasing telling me there still is nothing down on the surface.  But here are the first spaghetti plots issued on Invest 91-L.

With most models moving whatever is there to the NNW, the Euro model has shifted the heaviest rainfall father to the west away from Florida and closer towards us.  Is that reality or just a guess?  I'll give you my views coming up on my podcast later this afternoon. But to see and hear me, you have to become a subscriber for $2/month.

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  See you in a few hours.  Stay tuned!

 

Low Trying To Form In East Gulf, Future Track Uncertain, Podcast Coming Today

NHC continues to slowly increase the chances for tropical development tomorrow into early next week in the eastern Gulf.   They are following model guidance that brings the disorganized system northward and then turns it to the west towards us. However, morning satellite views still have the "disturbed weather" sinking southward.

Watching FOX Weather and you saw these graphics.

Zack Fradella on FOX 8's morning news has this solution for Tuesday morning.

 

Yikes, that sure looks like a Tropical Depression or Storm just SE of the mouth of the River.  However, as I mentioned yesterday, computer models are not very accurate with solutions for weak & ill-defined storms.

If the current trend on satellite views continue, then perhaps a track much farther to the south over the central Gulf could happen.  The forecast challenge, RIGHT NOW, is we have no surface center to track.  Because of this high uncertainty, I will do a special podcast later this afternoon.  To watch and hear what I think, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.

According to FOX Weather, NHC has just made the area in the eastern Gulf Invest 91 L, meaning computer track models can be run.  So go sign up for my podcast.  The cost is only $2/month and allows me to expand on what I post on my Bob Breck WVUE Facebook post.  Could we have Bertha coming soon?  Stay tuned!