NHC Increases/Expands Northern Gulf Tropical Threat, Models Clueless

 Based on current satellite views, NHC expanded westward & increased upward the possibility for tropical development the next 3-7 days.  I have mentioned in the past, computer models are more accurate the stronger and well defined a storm/hurricane is.  Models don't do very well with ill defined & weaker systems like the one we now have over the eastern Gulf.  Let's begin on what we know and dig into what might be going on.  NHC increased the chance for development from 20 to 30% at 7 days out.

On the color infrared view, I don't see any cluster of storms around a single core.  Rather, it appears there are several mid level swirls.

With the swirl over the Gulf, I've drawn what appears to be upper level outflow (powder blue arrows) forming that could enhance low level inflow.  Watching FOX Weather, I grabbed these graphics.

They have a low drifting northward and then westward following the model guidance.  However, what I'm seeing is a SW movement off of Fort Myers.

Currently, there are 2 distinct clusters moving in different directions.  The one inland over land is moving NNW while the one west of FMY is drifting SW.  Right now we are protected by a surface high parked right over us and that might be why the cluster of storms over the eastern Gulf is moving to the SW?  Also, NWS is indicating an upper high (Heat Dome) will build in over us preventing any system from coming into Louisiana.

So what we do know is the Gulf , despite very warm surface waters, remains a hostile upper environment.  That should limit any development in the short term.

What I will be watching are whether wave heights start increasing.  At the moment there is nothing to suggest surface development and what we're seeing on satellite views is more upper levels.  IF history is any guide, there have been several storms develop over the northern Gulf in late July & August.  All stayed offshore and moved westward into Texas.  On top is T.S. Abby in 1964.

The middle track is Hurricane Alicia in 1983 with the bottom being T.S. Eduoard in 2008.  My thinking is whatever forms will take one of 2 scenarios.  One takes the center to the north along Florida's west coast and then heads inland to the NE giving us no impacts.  The other is a center meanders down over the central Gulf and is blocked by the building upper heat dome keeping the system well south of LA/MS.  There maybe some tide & seas impacts next week.  IF something begins to develop, I will have a special podcast Saturday or Sunday.  You'll have to be a subscriber to see and hear what I think so go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

Of course, with the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo kicking off next Thursday, I'll be focusing on fishing weather.

So go to tarponrodeo.org and get registered.  Even if you don't have a boat, don't fish, live in Hammond, Indiana, you can register to have an opportunity for the $10,000 Grand Prize that I will announce from the Otto Candies Pavilion next Saturday night.  The smoke has gotten better in some cities in New England, but it's still bad in others.

There is a rain system coming out of Canada that should improve the fire situation for this weekend.  For us, it's all about the heat.

Don't wait for the next Gulf threat to form.  Go sign up for my podcast today.  Stay tuned!

 

NE Gulf Storm Unlikely, Smokey NE, Major Satellite Outage

Not sure where to begin since there are so many things going on.  To me, the most important is that one of our major weather satellites (GOES-19) failed overnight, and engineers are scrambling to fix the problem.  Satellite animation is key to weather forecasting, as much of the data computer models use comes from the GOES-19 satellite.  

It's like asking a surgeon to operate without seeing an X-Ray or MRI of his/her patient.  There are other satellites we can use, but the GOES-19 is critical in day-to-day forecasting.  But let's try.  It's obvious to me that computer models are struggling to figure out what might happen in the Gulf late this weekend into early next week.  NHC hasn't changed their area for potential development from yesterday.

It's obvious from what satellite views we have that there is NOTHING there yet.  I liked how Bruce Katz downplayed development on FOX 8's 10 PM newscast yesterday.  Today, FOX Weather's Brian Norcross voiced the same theme.  Something might form, but it will be non-tropical (cold core) and just a rainmaker for some.

Brian's concern is one center of low pressure breaks off to the NE, with one staying back to the SW over the Gulf.  He stated it would be more of an upper air feature and not a surface low.  However, models are all over the place with the formation of a surface low.

Bottom line, whatever forms will be a big rainmaker focused south of the LA/MS/AL coasts.  The more likely scenario is that central Florida gets the soaking.

Obviously, with the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo starting one week from today, we don't want any tropical system in the Gulf.  That will be my focus for the next several days.

It's a basic summertime-looking weather map with most of the nation dealing with warm to hot temperatures and high humidity.  What is different is that the Great Lakes and Northeast are dealing with dense smoke that has been pouring out of Canada.  All the red dots are forest fires.

Air quality is extremely bad over many states, and that's not likely to change for several days. The other big story is the widespread Texas flooding west of San Antonio. 

Fortunately, our rains have turned off for several more days.  Unless something were to form in the NE Gulf and move our way, our main weather issue will be the heat through this weekend.

I think most of us can deal with a little heat after all the recent rains.  As I mentioned, The Tarpon Rodeo begins next Thursday at dawn.  

Go to tarponrodeo.org for more information.  Remember, you could win $10,000 by just registering ($50) and you don't have to fish or be present when I call out your name next Saturday night.  Go sign up.  Stay tuned!