El Nino Winter Signature, Few Late Week Showers, New Podcast

 If you watch the network News Programs or any of the weather channels, they have featured heavy rainfall creating flooding conditions across parts of the Rockies.  While most of the eastern states enjoyed a wonderful Fall weekend, much of the Western states were cold & wet.  Why?  It's all about the upper air features that drive surface systems.  A persistent upper trough is over the West with signs that the "Hawaiian Pineapple Express" (Yellow circle) is about to begin.

Notice how chilly it is out there compared to locations south of the frontal boundary.  The current upper pattern will not allow that cold air to spread down to us in the short term (7-10 days).

But notice how that changes in the next 2 weeks.  On top is today followed by the forecast for Nov. 11th on the bottom.

Wow!  That's quite A FLIP-FLOP with the western trough shifting to the Great Lakes and Southeast.  That will make us significantly colder for November IF that prediction proves correct.  We shall see. For the rest of this week, a slow moving cold front will bring much needed rainfall to many states.

Yes, those blue colors over the Dakotas is snow falling.  This front will struggle to reach us and my old colleague, Jeff Baskin, coined the phrase..."When in drought, leave it (rain chances) out".  My gut tells me this frontal boundary will get close, but stall out/wash out north and west of us this weekend.  We certainly could us some good soakers, but I wouldn't bet the house that will happen.

Low level easterlies are increasing surface moisture, but the real rains are back to our west.  

I would not get too excited about the 40% rain chances on Saturday.  That is more for areas (BTR, North Shore) to our north and west.  Unless the front reaches us, most of us will stay dry.  Finally...

This week's podcast will be about Orange Beach, Alabama and how they survived Hurricane Isaias with little impacts.  To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  One of my future podcasts will be my November 30th wedding to Valerie Adams aboard the NCL Breakaway on a cruise to Belize.  You could join us on the cruise, OR become a subscriber for $2/month.  We will have one podcast of the actual wedding ceremony with others about the various ports & excursions along the way.  Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30th, but the party for us is just beginning and you can follow it into December.  Come join the fun.  Stay tuned!

Dry Spell To Continue, Warm Halloween

 October started off with a wet first week with 2.44" falling at MSY.  That total means we will not be in the top ten driest Octobers.  Some of you have commented about it being so dry, but historically, October is our driest month.  Only the last 3 weeks have been dry.

I think the more telling statistic is how warm we've been continuing the warmth from this past summer.  I suspect we will easily be in the top 5 warmest Octobers as the next 7 days appear likely above normal.

So why have we stayed so warm after having the first real cold front last week?  It's the upper air pattern that keeps reverting back to the upper trough over the west and a ridge over the east.

What we have set up is called an "Omega block" with low pressure over the Rockies & Bahamas and an upper high in between.  This often results in a stalled surface pattern that doesn't change for days, sometimes weeks.  As the extended shows, there MIGHT be a front approach us for next weekend on Halloween night, but most of this week will remain warm & dry.

It is winter-like behind that stalled frontal boundary with most of the eastern states enjoying "Indian summer".  The turning of the leaves producing Fall colors is in full swing.

This picture was taken by my friend Carolee Miller in Pennsylvania while she was attending her 60th High School class reunion.  That's what I miss about my time in Ann Arbor.

If you have lived in the South all your life, you can't believe how the leaves put on a show before the coming of the cold & snow.  Sometimes we see a little display of colors, especially north of Lake Pontchartrain.  You can see the colors on line without having to go north into the "cooler" air.  Stay tuned!