Arthur Coming To NW Gulf? Landcane Bringing Flood Threat? Podcast This PM

 For years Weather Wantabees have been coming up with terms to describe weather extremes. Some examples are Snowmageddon, Super Storm, and now Landcane.  Yes, the internet is going nuts with all kinds of scenarios describing what MIGHT happen in the next few days along the northern Gulf.  Take a look at these.

The bottom is a takeoff on Hurricane Camille back in 1969...Camille, she was no lady.  I have to give these folks credit for being creative.  But what is the point of increasing anxiety when there is so much UNCERTAINTY involved in a complicated forecast situation?  Let's go over what we do know before trying to figure out what we don't know.  There is a long leftover frontal boundary from Texas to Georgia.

There is a low level swirl inland over Mexico with most models bringing it back to the NE later this week.  As  WeatherBell Analytic's Joe Bastardi has been pointing out for weeks, the MJO is in phase 8, which is the favorable phase (rising motion).  He alerted his subscribers that an early season (June) storm was likely.  Now models are trending that way.

The most important question is...will this disturbance move back over the open water of the Gulf?  Well, even if it doesn't, Joe reminds us of Tropical Storm Allison back in 2001 that flooded Houston and much of south Louisiana and looked like a hurricane on radar as it passed north of us (hence Landcane)

Our local weathercasters have informed us that the rest of this week will be Alert/Impact/Warning days.  I prefer to use the term "Pay Attention Time" as Zack pointed out this morning that there will be areas of flooding rain potential.  Right now models are focused on Houston to Lake Charles.

But what if that area is farther to the east?  Then we'll need to PAY ATTENTION.

Zack pointed out such a scenario this morning.  But we all know when a system is weak and ill-defined, models do not handle the solution very well.

 

I grabbed the above graphics from The Weather Channel this morning where Jim Cantore focused the system right on Houston.   Hey, all I want you to know is there still remains high UNCERTAINTY and it's why I will have an afternoon podcast giving you my feelings.  To view the podcast, you must be a subscriber.

NWS has alerted us of the increasing risk on their website.

The predicted rain totals are greater north of Lake Pontchartrain, but even the South Shore should get 2-4".  The main rain area has pulled to our north today with only a few showers around this afternoon.

This week will certainly be a wet one.  The benefit will be less hot temperatures.  I'm preparing to do my next podcast later this afternoon.  Come sign up to see & hear WHAT DOES BOB THINK? Stay tuned!

Heavy Rain Event Coming, Which Model Do You Believe?

On their afternoon update, NHC increased the odds for Tropical development along the northern Gulf from 20 to 30%.  They are placing greater value on the AI models rather than the standard GFS & European models.  This will be a good test to see if the AI models are really better since the GFS & Euro models both keep the heavy rain threat to our north & west.  Let's begin with the AI forecast that forms a weak low south of Houston by Wednesday AM.

The AI takes that energy right across SE LA/MS along with the heaviest rains.  It is why NHC has increased their chances along the northern Gulf.

But not all models agree.  We start with the Euro that doesn't develop a low over water and takes the energy well to our north before developing it. The top is valid for Wednesday AM and the bottom is Friday PM.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The GFS seems to be in agreement with location & timing.

The bottom view is the WPC's 7 day rain totals and they seem to follow the GFS & Euro keeping the heaviest rain totals (4-7"+) from east central Texas across central LA/MS/AL to Georgia.  So as I always do, let's see what the satellite shows us.

The surface low/swirl is inland over Mexico.  Will it come back out over the Gulf as the AI model shows?  I don't see how based on the Water Vapor flow.

I see all of the upper lows moving west to east across the northern states with a zonal (west to east) flow over the South.  That should stall the weakening cold front well north of us agreeing with where the heaviest rain boundary sets up.  Our local NWS office is leaning towards heavy rains north of Lake P.

So the bottom line is our rain chances will be increasing for the coming week.  The farther north you live, the higher the chances for flooding rains.  RIGHT NOW, I don't feel the South Shore has any concerns.  However, IF the AI model proves valid, that could change.  I will plan on doing daily podcasts if that scenario proves correct.  To see and watch those podcasts, you have to become a subscriber.

In the short term, we have no issues.

So let's do our usual pay attention time this week.

A benefit for increased clouds and showers will be less hot temperatures.  Stay tuned!