Tropics Worldwide Awaken, Something Coming To Atlantic? Local Storms Tonight

As we remain in the MJO phase 6 (sinking air), the part of the World that is in the favorable phase is the Western & Central Pacific.  However, the MJO is heading towards phases 7 & 8, which means our part of the world will enter the favorable phase as we head into September.  Let's look at the big picture.

There are 2 Typhoons in the Pacific along with a Tropical Depression SE of Hawaii.  The two areas in the Atlantic that NHC is following have little chance of developing, especially the one west of Portugal.

It would be a shame if NHC names this system that clearly is north of 40 degrees and associated with a cold front. The other SE of Bermuda at least has some warmer water around it.

CPC highlights an area out in the MDR that models indicate possible development next week. There are several waves out there just waiting for the MJO to move into the favorable (rising air) phase.

The Caribbean is quiet with a few clusters over the NE Gulf and east of Florida.

All storms remain disorganized, and no model hints of close in development.  We do have some storms moving down under a NW upper flow.

FOX 8 has been doing live cut-ins all afternoon regarding these severe storms.  Keep tuned to them for the latest.

You can see where it has rained as temps are less hot.  That's the only relief coming this weekend as temps will again be 95-100.

As we approach the anniversary of Katrina & Ida on August 29th, next week's podcast will look back on what we learned from those two storms.  To see that podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Thanks to the hundreds of you who have renewed for another year.  I appreciate your support and enjoy being your local Hurricane Authority.  Joining now will allow you to go back and view all past podcasts, including the most recent one explaining the MJO. Stay tuned!

Worst Time Of The Year Here, Another Tropical Threat For Hawaii

I remember when I was working on-air, I hated August into early September since (unless there was tropical activity) all you had to talk about each day was the awful heat & spotty PM storms.  It was a challenge to look for something different to talk about.  Now think about the NHC Hurricane Specialists, who for weeks have had a fairly boring 1st 3 months of the 2026 season.  Is it no wonder they are looking for something to talk about?  Here's their Tropical Weather Outlook.

Are you kidding me?  Something north of 40 degrees might develop tropical characteristics (20% chance) in the next 2 days?!!!  I call that almost desperate.  I've been watching an upper low over Florida to see which way it might move.  Right now it's still over land.

It's bringing much needed rains to Florida and south Alabama, but not to us.  I'm a little surprised today's Drought Monitor update has not expanded much over the South Shore.  Last week is on top.

Most of our state did see drought conditions worsen.  Only our daily shower chances will bring some relief to folks, but chances look to stay below normal.

We need those storms to our east to come our way. Get rain, not so hot.  No rain, you're baking.  Bogalusa is 100 !

Finally, Hurricane Lala is pulling away from Hawaii, but there's more possible trouble ahead.

 

If it is named a Tropical Storm, the next name is Moke.  Some models are hinting something might develop coming off of Africa NEXT week.  Stay tuned!