Gulf Disturbance Unlikely, Weak Front Coming

The Forecast specialists at NHC did not highlight any area for tropical development during the next 7 days as they must believe the upper dynamics are unfavorable for storm formation.  There is a cold front dipping down the East coast and models indicate this front will push off our coast into the northern Gulf. Sometimes these fronts can spin up little areas of low pressure that develop into a tropical system.  Hurricane Alicia (August 1983) was one such storm.  However, it appears strong westerly upper winds over the Gulf will prevent anything from getting started.  There is an unusually deep East coast trough that is driving the front southward, but the WSW upper shear across the Gulf is extreme.

The only concern for us is this...will the area of deep tropical moisture covering most of the Gulf head our way?  WPC's 7-day rainfall graphic says no, with the heaviest totals staying well down over the Gulf.

I'll be watching to see how this front interacts with the moist pool over the Gulf.  In the short term, the front will bring us some storms on Wednesday with some drier air for Thursday & Friday.

While temps behind the front are in the 60s & 70s, look at the dew points.  30s, 40s & 50s is really crisp, good feel air.  If we're lucky, we could see some 60 dew points here Thursday & Friday.

There is a band of heavy rains across the North Shore that could reach the South Shore before dark.  As this front moves through on Wednesday, East winds will increase and Nicondra showed why the NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through Friday.

And as Zack showed us on his morning program, even though tropical formation is unlikely, there is a chance for some heavy rains along the northern Gulf this weekend.

The driest day appears to be on Thursday, with tropical moisture returning late on Friday.  As I said earlier, NHC doesn't seem concerned about anything in the Gulf, and until models begin to see something, we should relax and just pay attention as we always do at this time of the year.  My next podcast will air on Thursday, focusing on June storms in the Gulf.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to watch.  Stay tuned!

Pay Attention Time To Gulf, Tropical Moisture Could Head North

 This is a quick morning post since I've noticed a well defined spin developing over the southern Gulf.  This is an upper low, which usually means a hostile environment for tropical development.  However, the MJO is in the favorable phase (rising air) and that means we need to pay attention to anything that tries to spin up.

Currently, there are no T-Storms around it and I would suspect any development to be very slow.  My guess is NHC might highlight an area over the northern Gulf for low chance (20%) of development in their 2 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook.  I'll have my usual post this afternoon at 4 PM and my podcast this week will be focused on the Gulf and early season tropical formation.  Stay Tuned!