Strong Disturbance Coming Off Africa, Models Don't See It.

I'm a huge satellite person and look for interesting things to point out.  Most TV weathercasters will only point out things that NHC tells them they're watching.  For instance, today I'm seeing a system with hints of rotation coming off of Africa.  It easily is the best organized so far in 2025.

NHC isn't talking about it because no model develops it and the Saharan Dust is likely to limit organization.

I found the bottom graphic on AccuWeather's website.  I thought it easily explained why any activity will be "inhibited".   CPC is still highlighting an area in the Gulf late next week for possible development.  Until I see it on satellite views, I'm not concerned.

Most of the nation east of the Rockies is in the soup, which is typical for July & August.

My house had another good soaker today. (.41")  The cloud cover helps keep temps down a little.

There may be fewer showers over the weekend into next week, but we know it's supposed to be hot & humid until September.  Remember...

The Grand Isle Tarpon rodeo is two weeks away.  Hope you can come down to the island, do some fishing and pass a good time.  Not everybody fishes.  Many of the younger folks come down nightly for the popular local bands.  Regardless of whether you fish or not, register and give yourself a chance to win the $10,000 grand prize.  Attendance is not required.  Register at tarponrodeo.org.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!

Tropical Expects Lower Predictions, Nothing Happening Next 7-10 Days, Mini Heat Wave Here

I'm sure many of you saw yesterday's news about all the agencies LOWERING their tropical activity for the rest of this season.  It wasn't a drastic change and it really doesn't mean much. The old June Forecast for CSU is on top, with the newone  on the bottom.

 

IF the rest of July remains quiet, the August outlook may also be lower.  More importantly is location.  So we have 13 more named storms?  How many cross the U.S. coastline?  Weather Bell Analytics updated their forecast.

Wow, during the next 3 1/2 months, only 6 named storms will affect the U.S.  That would be nice, especially if none were major Hurricanes.  For now, the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is strong.

So the MDR should stay quiet into August.  IF we have development in the next 2 weeks, it'll be closer to home.  That's what the CPC indicates on their outlook.

We might have a cut-off upper low develop over this region, but no model is seeing anything today.  We just have to deal with summer heat & humidity and spotty storms.  Today, they are centered over Louisiana.

Models are suggesting that a weak upper high will build over us this weekend, decreasing our rain chances and increasing our high temps. But not for Friday.

These are tropical downpours so some folks are getting soaked. You can see where it's raining, temps are in the 70s.  Nice!

For the next 2 months, absent any tropical activity, the 7-day forecast is fairly useless.  Hope this quiet trend continues another 2+ weeks.  Because...

The 97th International Grand Isle begins 2 weeks from this morning.  It begins at dawn on Thursday, July 24, and concludes with the awards ceremony Saturday night, July 26th.  I have been the MC for this ceremony since 1985, missing only one year for an out-of-town wedding.  My longtime friend, Jim Henderson, filled in for me.  We have a great lineup of local bands and a grand prize drawing for $10,000 on Saturday night.  You can register for the Rodeo & that drawing at tarponrodeo.org for only $55.  It's far better odds than Powerball, Lotto, or the Dream Home Drawing.  Less than 3,000 register on average so give yourself a chance to win $10K.  You don't have to fish or drive down to Grand Isle, but you can't win if you don't get in.  Out of State?  No problem.  Live in Boston, Bowling Green or Albuquerque?  No problem.  Just register wherever you live.  Stay tuned!