From Drought To Flood, Weak Front Midweek, Grief Support Monday AM

 Yesterday I gave Kudos to the computer models & NWS for indicating our dry spell would end.  They had 50-70% rain coverage and it turned out to be 95-100%.  However, none of the guidance indicated there would be 3 separate bullseyes of flooding rainfall.  Southern Mississippi received the greatest totals in Pearl River County.

15-20" fell in less than 4 hours because a cluster of storms developed and didn't move. I grabbed a number of radar views with the time stamp from yesterday at the bottom.

Between 6:30 & 10:30 PM, the intensities were 3-4"/hour.  Obviously, flooding was extensive and I'm sure the news tonight will have videos of the damage.  On the South Shore, Metairie was the target, especially from Airline Drive northward.

The 6-9" in less than 4 hours caused extensive street flooding hampering travel and having several cars get stuck in deep water.  Here's the radar views with the time stamp at the bottom. There wasn't any rain at 2:30 PM when I did my FB post, but after 4 PM the skies opened up.

For 2-3 hours, intensity rates were 2-3"/hour before another cell took over on the Westbank to the south. I'm still trying to understand 1) what triggered these downpours and 2) why they remained stationary?  Let me try. We had this tongue of 70+ dew points move over coastal locations.

There was an upper swirl over northern Arkansas with a split in the jet stream (orange circle) right over us.  We had no surface fronts around so it had to be this upper diffluence that enhanced the low level lift.  Fortunately, we have not seen a repeat today as the upper disturbance moved down into the eastern Gulf with Florida getting the soaking.

Our next real rain chance will be along a weakening cold front that will stagger through Wednesday morning.  This front will struggle getting here due to another upper trough over the Rockies.

The take aways from this next front are 1) the main upper energy/support will go well north of us, 2) there will be some showers, maybe a little thunder, but rain totals should not be excessive and 3) there will be very little cold air behind the front.  Hopefully we will see drier air for Thursday into next  weekend.

If you're waiting for heavy coats & sweater weather, not happening this week.  Finally,

Our next Grief Support Coffee is tomorrow (Monday) on the hotel side of Copeland Tower in room 825.  It begins at 10 AM.  If you're struggling with the loss of a loved one, perhaps we can help smooth the road on your grief journey?  There is no charge and we'll be done before noon.  Come join us as we walk in each other's shoes.  Stay Tuned!

The Dry Streak Is Over, The Drought Is Not, Grief Support on Monday

Kudos to the computer models for indicating days ago that we would have an end to our dry spell. Coverage has been 60-70% as called by NWS, but rain totals (less than .10") have barely wet the ground. We have no fronts or upper disturbances near us so what is causing the widespread light to moderate showers?  To me, it's a split in the upper flow right over SE LA/MS that enhances low level lift.

By far, the heaviest storms, with some thunder, have been in southern Mississippi around Wiggins. If these showers continue, they will impact the early Trick or Treaters.

Showers should diminish after dark, but we will continue with a small shower threat into next week since we have no front to dry us out.

You can see there is no cold air around and the higher dew points linger all along the Gulf coast back into south Texas. The NWS forecast lingering some showers into Sunday, lowering chances for Monday but bringing them back up for late Tuesday into Wednesday.

When we have no surface trigger (Front) or upper air feature to follow, it's hard to have certainty in the forecast.  So far, rain totals have been light, but radar returns indicate some good soakers are yet to come. Latest model runs have backed off on our Wednesday front bring us colder air.

It will be drier, but still mild.  Don't forget to set back your clocks before you go to bed tonight.  Finally, this coming Monday is our next Grief Support Coffee at Copeland Tower.

You don't have to be a resident to attend.  If you are struggling with the recent loss of a loved one, perhaps we can help.  Our discussions use the New Day Journal that we followed when I was at St. Catherine of Siena.  Come join us Monday on the hotel side of Copeland Tower in room 825.  You need not walk alone.  Stay tuned!