Worst Time Of The Year Here, Another Tropical Threat For Hawaii

 I remember when I was working on-air, I hated August into early September since (unless there was tropical activity) all you had to talk about each day was the awful heat & spotty PM storms.  It was a challenge to look for something different to talk about.  Now think about the NHC Hurricane Specialists, who for weeks have had a fairly boring 1st 3 months of the 2026 season.  Is it no wonder they are looking for something to talk about?  Here's their Tropical Weather Outlook.

Are you kidding me?  Something north of 40 degrees might develop tropical characteristics (20% chance) in the next 2 days?!!!  I call that almost desperate.  I've been watching an upper low over Florida to see which way it might move.  Right now it's still over land.

It's bringing much needed rains to Florida and south Alabama, but not to us.  I'm a little surprised today's Drought Monitor update has not expanded much over the South Shore.  Last week is on top.

Most of our state did see drought conditions worsen.  Only our daily shower chances will brings some folks relief, but chances look to stay below normal.

We need those storms to our east to come our way. Get rain, not so hot.  No rain, you're baking.  Bogalusa is 100 !

Finally, Hurricane Lala is pulling away from Hawaii, but there's more possible trouble ahead.

 

If it is named a Tropical Storm, the next name is Moke.  Some models are hinting something might develop coming off of Africa NEXT week.  Stay tuned!

New Podcast Today, , Lala Explodes to Cat. 4, Storm Clusters In Gulf.

Since there is no news regarding our current heat wave, we focus on the Tropics.  The Atlantic Basin is dead with nothing expected for the next 7-10 days.  However, the Climate Prediction Center does highlight an area off the African coast for possible development NEXT week.  Note the brown shading over the Caribbean indicates the graveyard for any development.

The bottom is valid for the first week in September keeping the EPAC active with only that slight chance over the Atlantic MDR.  I've circled 3 areas with some disorganized cloud clusters today.

2 of the clusters are over the Gulf both the result of upper air lows.   That shows up on water vapor loops.

With the upper low over Florida, there is a splitting of the flow over the northeast Gulf creating enhanced lift & T-storms.  NHC seems to have no interest, but remember Bertha formed from an upper low.  Perhaps it's the MJO being in phase 6 (sinking air) that NHC doesn't expect development.  The MJO favorable areas remain over the Pacific where Lala exploded back to a Cat. 4 hurricane overnight.

 

The current "Super El Nino" should keep our part of the World quiet for at least another week.  Several models do hint that a storm will form coming off of African during the first week in September.  plenty of time to watch.

Otherwise, it's still all about the August heat.  Don't forget to go sign up to watch today's podcast at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!