Still Waiting on Edouard, New System East of Florida, Dolly?

Recon aircraft found a well-defined low-level circulation earlier this afternoon, allowing NHC to upgrade PTC 5 to Tropical Depression 5.  However, the plane has failed to find wind speeds greater than 40 + mph, so they have kept this disturbance on their 4 PM advisory as a T.D.  Some of the offshore buoys have winds approaching 40 mph, so it's only a matter of time before NHC names it Tropical Storm Edouard.  Look at the recent buoy reports.

 

This system has moved from south of Grand Isle last night to south of Morgan City at 4 PM.

Even though satellite views indicate no rapid intensification, NHC has upped the wind speeds at landfall to 60 mph making this a potent Tropical Storm for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts.  Their track forecast has changed little.

This will not have any major impacts for SE LA/MS besides giving us some squally heavy rain bands on Tuesday.  The real flood threat is farther to our west.

On today's podcast, I went into the possible effects of the MJO on the lack of development so far for TD 5.  To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  If you were a subscriber last summer and have not received any of the podcasts in the last 4 days, you'll need to re-subscribe, as your credit card expired.  

You can go back and listen to my podcast from 2 weeks ago explaining the MJO.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the cluster of storms east of Florida and what's left of Dolly.

So you can stay with my free Facebook post, or subscribe to my podcast that goes into detail that isn't in the NHC's discussion.  For $2/month, it's an easy choice.  Stay tuned!

Edouard Coming To NW Gulf, Dolly Almost Gone

Of course, the big news is NHC began issuing advisories on soon-to-be Tropical Storm Edouard south of the Louisiana coast.  Recon aircraft could not find a well-defined center, but satellite & radar loops are indicating a rotation, so NHC decided to call it PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) FIVE so watches & warnings could be issued for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts.  It is a very small & compact circulation with little impacts for us except some occasional squally rain showers.  Despite the fact that it's closer to us than Houston, an upper heat Dome will force it to slowly drift towards Texas.

PTC 5 is beginning to have that Tropical Storm look and NHC expects it to become a storm later today.  Here are their graphics.

The timing has this system inland early on Tuesday, with the centerline track right now between Houston & Beaumont.  Rain & surge impacts will be greatest well to our west IF the NHC track verifies.

Clearly the heavy rainfall bullseye is over Texas, but note the WPC's Flood risk has south LA/MS in a possible flash flood risk.  Why?  If you get caught under a heavy "feeder band" rotating around PTC 5/ Edouard, the training effect could mean some brief street flooding. Wave heights are slowly increasing (3-4ft) along our coast.

Current wind shear is light around PTC 5, so some strengthening is likely.  But, as I have been pointing out in past posts, the MJO remains in phase 6, which is favorable for development in the Pacific, but not in the Atlantic.  This will be a true test of the MJO's influence since 1) water temps are very warm and 2) wind shear over the northern Gulf is low.

I will go into way more detail regarding soon to be Edouard plus what's left of Dolly on my afternoon podcast.  Several models still show Dolly's DNA reaching the eastern Gulf later this week.  What am I thinking?

You can only see & hear my podcast if you become a subscriber for $2/month. (one Powerball ticket!) If you were a subscriber last year and are not receiving email updates, it means your credit card has expired, and you'll need to re-subscribe at bobbreck.com.  The next podcast will be out after 2 PM CDT.  Stay tuned!