Dolly Charges Westward, Weekend Concerns For Northern Gulf?

 The 4th named storm of the 2026 season, Tropical Storm Dolly, is racing across the central Atlantic with little change in strength.  Most models bring her towards the northern Virgin Islands late this weekend & weaken her to an open wave due to strong SW upper wind shear. Her low level circulation is well defined, but she remains a lopsided system.

There has been a burst of T-Storms closer to her center this afternoon, but she faces challenges farther to the west.  

I could find only one model (Canadian) that redevelops Dolly early next week that could threaten Florida.   The Canadian is not one of the more reliable models that NHC puts much faith in.

To me, of more concern is the recent model runs that indicate a small circulation might form along the northern Gulf late this weekend.  Right now, I can find several low level swirls all over land.

NHC isn't listing any areas for possible development,  but I'll be watching these small swirls if any of them drift out over the warm waters of the Gulf.  The MJO is drifting towards Phase 7, which still is not the favorable (rising air) phase for our part of the world.  IF something were to form, I'll have a special podcast either Friday or Saturday.  You have to become a subscriber to see & hear what I think.

I appreciate the hundreds of you who have renewed for another year.  Check your credit card statement to see if you have renewed.  Some of you have cards that have expired and will need to re-subscribe on your new card.  There are many weeks left before we're out of danger for this season.  Go sign up today.  Stay tuned!

 

We Have Dolly, Is Edouard Right Behind?

 We are about 2 weeks behind schedule regarding the naming of storms this hurricane season.  The average date of the 4th name storm is August 15th and we finally reached the 4th name (Dolly) on the 2026 list this morning.  Satellite views indicate the 5th name (Edouard) might be right behind even though models don't show it.  The wide satellite view clearly shows Dolly out in the middle of the MDR.

The daylight/visible satellite view has Dolly with a well defined circulation.  However, look behind her to the east and another swirl has moved off of Africa.

The average date for the 5th name storm is August 29th and we could catch up IF the second wave starts developing.  However the Atlantic remains a hostile environment as the Water Vapor view shows all the dry air around Dolly

You can see that the center of Tropical Storm Dolly is exposed on the northern side of the T-Storms.

Add in her fast forward speed (west at 24 mph) and it's no wonder NHC limits future strength to a 45 mph storm.  In fact, NHC dissipates Dolly before she reaches the Windward Islands.

None of the models bring what's left of Dolly into the Gulf.  She should be a short lived storm.  With the recent death of Dolly Parton, NHC felt it was necessary to clarify this naming had nothing to do with the music star icon's recent death.

Go Google "Dolly Parton writes a song for Johnny Carson".  She claims he made her a "Star".  Locally, this morning's storms continue the pattern of disturbances rotating around a weakening Heat dome to our west.

The Gulf and Caribbean remain a hostile environment for Tropical Development and we should get into September without any threats.  As my last podcast pointed out, we won't reach the peak of hurricane season until September 10th.  This lack of activity this summer doesn't mean we'll see no more tropical threats.  Remember the Andrew year (1992) had only one big storm.  I'm optimistic we won't see any major threats, but we might get a small disturbance form along one of the Fall cold fronts that are only weeks away.  To become a podcast viewer, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  Stay tuned!