Dolphin Swipes Okinawa, Atlantic Setting To Get Active? Still Lots of Dust

 On yesterday's post, I mentioned the 1983 Hurricane season but forgot to tell you the TOTAL number of storms was only FOUR!  None of the named storms came from the MDR and all of them formed much closer to the U.S.  The first (Alicia) didn't form until Aug. 15th but turned out to be the biggest (Cat 3) system that year slamming Houston.

I point that out because several computer models are hinting something will try to form coming off of Africa during the next week.  We have the Canadian on top, the Euro in the middle with the GFS on the bottom.

The Canadian & European are more bullish with the GFS not seeing much.  However, the Canadian brings something towards the graveyard of upper Wind Shear (Caribbean) while the Euro will fight the lingering Saharan Dust layer.

With the extensive dust layer plus the MJO in phase 6 (sinking air), anything that does try to form will struggle and be short lived.  The Water Vapor still has lots of upper TUTT Lows around, coupled with strong westerly shear over the Caribbean, and I think that might be why NHC still hasn't highlighted any areas to watch.

It doesn't mean there's nothing to look at.

There are several clusters of disorganized T-Storms along with a couple of mid level lows to watch, but no model has any development for the next 5-7 days.

Currently, the deepest atmospheric moisture is east of Florida and that, to me, would be the most likely area to see any short term development.  I'm thinking, for next week's podcast, I might try to explain what the MJO is and why it's so important during the Hurricane Season.  If you want to hear and see my thoughts, you have to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The cost is only $2/month and I thank the hundreds of you who have already renewed for the rest of this year.  Tropical action remains below normal globally.  The Eastern Pacific (EPAC) has nothing right now.

There is a weak swirl SE of Hawaii (yellow circle), but it has no storms around it.  Only the WPAC (Western Pacific) is active with Typhoon Dolphin.

Dolphin's intensity has made a comeback (Cat. 3 120 mph) overnight as its eyewall brushed Okinawa.  It is now heading towards China staying north of Taiwan.

Locally, it's been a day of slow moving strong storms with lots of lightning.  

Without any tropical activity, this will be a typical august weekend.  We may see some of that deeper Gulf moisture move over us by Monday.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!

NOAA Lower Numbers, Might Rival summer of 1983?

Yesterday Colorado State chose to keep their prediction numbers unchanged from their July update.  However, today NOAA issued an update and they lowered their number of storms based on an increasing El Nino in the Pacific that will increase the upper shear across the Atlantic Basin.  They give a range of numbers (quite large I might add) that center on ten, which would be way below the 30 year average of 14.

This information is not included in today's podcast that will go out this afternoon.  To hear and see my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.

The cost is $2/month to cover the expenses of putting on a podcast and is a bargain to learn what does Bob think?  I think this El Nino could be the strongest in modern times.

Not only do we have the strong upper westerly shear, but the Saharan Dust coming off of Africa has been relentless. Couple that with all the TUTT lows and the environment will limit any formation.

There are features to watch.  The Caribbean and Gulf are quiet, but there is this tiny swirl east of Florida.

Florida is receiving much needed rainfall while we have seen a few slow moving storms.

Kenner (MSY) got under one of those cooling showers and you can tell coverage was way greater than yesterday.  Expect daily storms typical of August through the weekend.  stay tuned!