Higher Severe Risk Coming Wednesday PM, Cooler Thursday

In a previous post, I complained about our local weathercasters over hyping the last severe weather threat (nothing happened!) and crying wolf every time a cold front moves through.  I explained why we were unlikely to see any storms with the heaviest rainfall mainly north of Lake P.   That was the last system, but we have another on coming that will bring a much higher risk to south LA/MS Wednesday PM.  As usual, I give you MY opinion.  We begin with the current satellite view.

We still have the upper SW flow coming out of Mexico into Texas on up to the Ohio Valley.  However, unlike last week that had all the upper energy staying well north of us, look what the GFS model is doing with the disturbance coming across the Baja today. The top graphic is today.

The middle view is valid for Wednesday PM with the upper disturbance moving over central Texas and weakening.  The bottom is valid for Thursday PM with the upper trough lifting out to the northeast.  While I don't see a perfect set up for a tornado outbreak, I see the upper energy moving much closer to us.  Here's SPC's thinking. On top is the severe outlook for Tuesday with two areas of level 3 risk.

The bottom shows Wednesday's risk, which I believe is underplayed based on the upper energy  that's coming across at a much lower latitude.  Don't be surprised to see a level 3 area added to Wednesday's outlook.  In fact, I will do a special Podcast explaining why we will have a higher severe risk, but you have to subscribe to the podcast for $2/month at bobbreck.com.  Today's storms are all to our north with a weak upper disturbance.

SPC has a severe T-Storm Watch area including parts of NE LA and much of central & north MS.  These storms are NOT coming our way.

The reason today's severe risk is not great is it lacks a surface cold front.  There's plenty of low level moisture available, but no surface boundary to enhance lift. Nicondra gave us an idea about timing on her noon program.

It appears the greatest danger will come after dark if the model proves reality.  We will watch future model runs, but be prepared for some strong storms Wednesday PM into early Thursday. 

There will be a noticeable cooling coming for Thursday that will bring back sweaters and jackets.  But look at what the model does for next Monday.

That sharp a dip in the upper trough over the East coast would bring down a really cold air mass.  Winter is not over Gang!  Finally, look at these two cool satellite views of Florida.

You can clearly see the sea breeze front on both sides of the peninsula.  Also, notice the sea fog. This is for all you weather geeks who look for the small features.  Remember, next podcast is coming soon before the next severe weather threat.  Stay tuned!

North Shore Flooding Possible, Severe Risk Remains Slim

My thinking hasn't changed from yesterday regarding the severe weather risk for SE LA/MS.  Heavy rainfall is likely, but without an upper disturbance to create a split in the jet stream, I don't see any tornado risk.  The main energy with the upper low over Colorado yesterday is now west of the Baja and will come over us by late Wednesday of next week, bringing a higher risk for severe storms.

You can clearly see where SPC's greatest severe risk (Level 2 yellow) is today.  The main driver producing today's storms is a strong cold front that will lose upper support as it moves towards us.

There is a 20-30 degree cooldown behind this front, along with much drier (dew points) air.  But this front will stall to our north with the heavier rainfall staying north of Lake Pontchartrain.  WPC's 2-day rain totals indicate just that.

Note the heaviest totals (2-3"+) extend from Houston & SW LA, across southern MS, on over to Mobile Bay. If you live north of Lake Pontchartrain and plan on going out this evening, pay attention to the FOX 8 Weather App to see if training develops with any storms.  Right now at 3 PM, most of the action is along the frontal boundary.  However, several clusters of storms have popped up during daytime heating.

Many storms have lots of lightning, so you need to use common sense if you hear thunder.  Lightning is a deadly killer and happens with little warning.  We are in the warm air sector, and it feels very summer-ish outside.

Looking at the seven-day forecast, the time change is tomorrow morning, but focus on the next front coming next week.  There is a cool-down coming that will bring back sweaters and jackets.  Ahead of it, there could be a stronger severe risk.

BEFORE you go to sleep tonight, set those clocks ahead one hour. Stay tuned!