Cat. 3 Isaias Locks in on Florida Beaches, Starting To Weaken

 Hurricane Isaias reached major Cat. 3 level this morning despite encountering dry air and stronger wind shear as he nears the coast.  NHC believes the SW upper shear is not affecting the storm as much as expected since the forward motion (NNE) is along that shear direction.  Whatever, recent Recon reports finally show pressure rises and hopefully that mean Isaias will weaken some before landfall.  I begin with the official track that won't change much anymore. Note how fast the forward speed is!

The center of this hurricane is 227 miles SE of downtown NOLA, just far enough to keep us in sunshine and outside any major impacts.  It clearly remains very symmetrical on both satellite and radar views. The only thing remaining is where will the centerline make landfall?  NHC now has it east of Pensacola.

I've circled in red the areas that will see greatest winds and storm surges.  NHC extended the Hurricane Warning east of Panama City.  All of the major beach cities from Navarre through Ft. Walton/Destin, Grayton, Watercolor/Seaside/Sea Grove/Rosemary to Panama City will be impacted by this powerful storm.  Despite weakening, much like Katrina, storm surge will not drop off quickly. NHC has increase expected surge heights to 6-9' where the eyewall comes ashore. They lowered heights for Mobile Bay since they will be on the weaken side.

Tropical storm force winds (white circle) are reaching the coast now.  Those 120 mph winds will be confined to a small area around the eyewall's landfall.  Since the forward motion is so fast, rainfall totals should not be excessive.

Isaias is now within radar views of the coast and NHC is issuing hourly updates.  There is a significant tornado threat east of the centerline as SPC has issued a tornado watch.   Our current high water levels should begin decreasing this evening as the system moves inland.  TWC & FOX Weather along with the networks are all over doing live reports.  It's a storm chaser's feast/delight.  Hopefully, nobody gets hurt.  My next podcast after 4 PM will focus on radar and the centerline track and why locations well inland in AL/FL/GA will see impacts tonight into Saturday.  To see and hear that podcast, you must be a subscriber.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up. Stay tuned!

Wind Shear, Dry Air Impacting Isaias, Model Tracks Shift Eastward, New Podcast Coming

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, I'm seeing subtle changes that are all good for SE LA/MS and less good for NW Florida beaches.  We have heard all summer how wind shear has protected us from having an active tropical season.  Many of you have commented about what happened to the wind shear?  Well, on satellite views, I'm seeing both wind shear and dry air impacting Hurricane Isaias and not allowing him to get much stronger.  Recon aircraft reports pressures have RISEN suggesting a weaker storm.  Take a look.

There definitely is an eyewall, but look at all the dry air covering the western Gulf.  Isaias has reached the loop current of warmest waters of the Gulf, but will the wind shear and dry air cap the increase NHC called for later tonight & tomorrow?  I will go into what I'm seeing and thinking on this afternoon's podcast, but you must be a subscriber to see & hear me.

I don't just repeat what NHC says nor just show you "what the model says".  The cost of $2/month is one Power Ball ticket.  Go sign up and listen to our next podcast.  I will be talking about the slight shift to the east in model tracks.

Bryan Norcross pointed out how the Google deep mind model now brings the centerline to Destin.  Will NHC follow that trend?

IF that model proves correct, note the highest winds will be east of Pensacola on over to Panama City.  Ditto for the highest storm surges.  Let's see what NHC changes at 4 PM.  My podcast will be out before 6 PM.  Stay tuned!