East Coast Trough To Deepen, less Hot Here, Next Podcast Tomorrow

 The upper air pattern is changing across the lower United States as the Heat Dome retrogrades (moves) back to the Rockies and the upper trough over the eastern states deepens.  That trough currently has brought flooding rains to the Northeast along with much cooler temperatures. In some areas, folks might even need light jackets!

As the trough deepens, a frontal boundary will sag southward closer to the northern Gulf increasing our rain chances and making us less hot.  You can see that boundary on the Atmospheric Moisture plot.

Another thing the upper trough has done is brought cold fronts cooling down the waters off the East coast.  You can even see some cooler waters leftover from last week's Bertha over the eastern Gulf.

NHC sees no tropical activity for the next 7 days, perhaps much longer.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the Tropics Worldwide and give you my ideas for the rest of this Hurricane Season.  Could we see the updated forecast coming out next week lower the numbers further?  You'll need to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber to my podcast.

The cost is a modest $2/month to find out what does Bob think?  Go sign up before the heart (Aug-Sept) of the hurricane season arrives.  Locally, we'll be watching the progress of a cold front as it tries to get closer to us.

You can see how much drier (lower dew points) are behind the frontal boundary.  Seldom do fronts reach us during July & August.  There is an interesting feature over the Eastern Gulf.

Tampa radar indicates the hint of a mid level spin, but NHC isn't talking about it and models don't show anything forming.  Upper wind shear is still around so any development would be limited.  Something to watch.  We've seen a few brief showers around today, but the better chances arrive Thursday PM.

Belle Chasse had such a cooling shower.

For the next 5-7 days, the temperature trend will be downward because the rain chances go up.  There is a big difference between 95-98 and 88-92.  The heat warnings should be dropped for the near term. Beware some of the T-Storms the next few days will be strong to severe with lots of lightning & heavy downpours.  Stay tuned!

East Coast Trough Returning, Less Hot Late week

 I do read the comments some of you post and yesterday's heat opinions were interesting.  I have been on this planet for nearly 8 decades and grew up during the "cooling cycle" of the 40s, 50s, & 60s.  We have been in a "warming cycle" since the late 70s and I can understand how many of you believe our current heat is "different".  Some comments pointed out how our expanding urban heat islands contribute to the heat.  My only comment is all we hear about is the degree of this heat.  For instance, look at the local National Weather Service headline.

 

If the media keeps bombarding us with "extreme, dangerous, deadly heat", I can see why some of you believe it's never happened before.  However, the hottest decade on record was the 1930s when the planet had far fewer people.  Back in the 60s, I worked summers at the (no longer there) Youngstown Sheet & Tube Steel Mill to help pay my tuition at the University of Michigan.  It was so hot inside the mill we drank 8 bottles of R.C. Cola (16 oz.) per 8 hour shift and took salt tablets.  No one called it extreme heat.  I walked out of the 106 degree mill on a 98 degree day and it felt like I walked into air conditioning.  OK, Enough about the heat.  Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics had an interesting graphic about how water temps have cooled down in the past several weeks off the East Coast.

That's been caused by a persistent upper East coast trough that has brought cold front after cold front. But we also have seen a cool down in the Gulf from tropical storm Bertha.

As we approach the heart (Aug-Sept) of the Hurricane Season, any cooler water certainly helps in limiting development.  But as we saw with Bertha, upper shear is King.

The upper westerly shear from El Nino plus the Saharan Dust have prevented any development in the Caribbean or MDR.  IF the East coast troughs keep coming, anything that might form should be steered away from the U.S.  

What we need to watch for is an upper low cutting off from the main trough and diving down to the northern Gulf bringing a cold front.  Below is the European model forecast for this Saturday.

You can see the upper high (Heat Dome) backing over the SW with the hint of a closed low forming around Chicago.  I'll be watching to see IF that happens and sinks southward.  The upper low will initially increase our daily rain chances making us less hot, but IF that circulation would dip into the northern Gulf for next week, we could see another tropical threat develop for the northern Gulf.  Right now, that's just something to speculate about as no model has that happening.  This week's podcast will focus on what to expect for the rest of the 2026 Hurricane Season and why the northern Gulf and along the East Coast may be the most likely areas to see impacts.  To see & hear my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

You don't have to wait for NHC to start alerting you what might happen.  I'll tell you the whys (reasons) something might form.  For $2/month, it's a bargain. Locally, A few showers have popped up.

Real relief won't come until the upper heat dome retreats back to the west later this week.

Note, as rain chances increase, our temperatures decrease.  Use common sense if working or playing outside tomorrow.  I plan to golf and will stay hydrated, have a hat & will use sunscreen.  My next podcast will air on Thursday. Stay tuned!