The Cold Cometh, Hard Freeze Monday & Tuesday, Too Late For Snow Here

 Model guidance hasn't veered much from yesterday keeping us in all liquid precipitation over SE LA/MS with an ice storm across much of central & north LA/MS.  It appears the Arctic cold won't arrive until after daybreak on Sunday in the 9-10 AM time frame.  You still have time to prepare/protect your garden & property on Saturday.  The days to run water won't happen until Sunday night & Monday night.  There is no reason to worry about water issues tonight or Saturday night.  Here's what we know. the current snow cover (yellow line) is still far to our north.

The current Arctic Blast is locked in place with the zero line running from Chicago to Omaha and the freeze line down to Memphis.  As the upper low off of California begins to track to the east/northeast, rain is developing and sleet & freezing rain has started over west Texas.

As the upper energy over Montana begins to phase with the southern disturbance over California, we'll see the ice & snow area quickly expand eastward over night.

Any travel northward should be delayed as conditions will become life threatening on the roadways with widespread power outages expected.  The current snow cover map has none across the south, but that will change as the 2 day snow forecast indicates.

With that kind of nearby snow cover, the Arctic air will not moderate much.  Here's the NWS forecast lows here for Monday & Tuesday.

obviously, all of the North Shore & coastal Mississippi will need to run water Sunday & Monday nights.  Even most spots away from Lake P. south will have to drip the faucets.  But not until Sunday night.

Yesterday I told you to watch Denver, Tulsa, Dallas & San Antonio as a guide whether we get into the super cold.  Well Denver is 12, Tulsa 24 so the cold is coming southward to our west.  It gives me confidence in the NWS forecast lows for Monday & Tuesday.  Don't be caught off guard by the coming freeze.  Full precautions will be required.

I believe these predicted lows are a worst case scenario.  Perhaps we'll get lucky are not drop down into the teens & 20s.  I'll be moving & covering plants tomorrow.  For you snow geeks, one models hints at another southern snowstorm next weekend, but farther to the south.  Keep the faith!  Stay tuned!

Ice/Snow Will Shut Down Travel, Only Rain Here, Hard Freeze Next Week

Geez, I'm getting texts on my phone from Entergy warning of power outages and network news hyping a winter storm that happens most years during January & February.  It makes me nervous hearing about doom & gloom.  Let's be perfectly clear. Yes, this will be a major storm for many, in fact, crippling communities for days.  But for us, we have NO ice concerns as it will be too warm.

Our concern will come next week when the Arctic air will require most of us to drip our water.

Watches and warnings are up from New Mexico to Boston, and a large part of the nation will be impacted.

Zack created a graphic that I thought clearly defined who is at the greatest risk for frozen precip. and it's NOT here.  In fact, he pointed out we will have the slight risk (orange/red shades) for some strong T-Storms since we will be in the warm air sector into Sunday morning.

The Entergy texts for power outages are mainly for areas north of a line from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge to McComb line.  As the wording says, impacts will be "crippling".  So what are the uncertainties?  There is an upper disturbance off of California that will track across the southern states.

Will it "phase" with the main lobe of the Polar Vortex and create a meridional (north to south) flow out of Canada? That would drag down a bitterly (35-45 below) cold air mass in Canada.

I have often underestimated the strength of Arctic air, as it is very dense and once it's moving (mass + motion) it's hard to stop.  I like the current FOX 8 forecast that I believe is the worst case scenario.

Mid to upper 20s for the South Shore would require dripping the water Sunday night into Monday AM & again on Tuesday.  If you subscribe to the Bob Breck podcast ($2/month), I am doing a special podcast later this afternoon to expand on my views.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  This event is still 3 days away, plenty of time to prepare your yards.  Watch FOX 8 at 4 & 5 for the latest model information.  Stay tuned!