Higher Severe Risk Tonight, Cooler & Drier Thursday

Several blog posts ago, I complained about local weathercasters crying wolf with every cold front.  I explained why we wouldn't have any severe storms, and we didn't.  However, this next cold front will bring a much greater threat for damaging winds after dark into the early hours on Thursday.  As usual, I will explain why our risk is greater with this next front.  Remember, the last front had no upper energy support around us.  This next system has more energy at a much lower latitude.

This has caused SPC to increase our severe risk to a level 2 tonight, and it could get higher.

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for East Texas and Western LA until 6 pm.  That is likely to be extended eastward over us tonight.  We have a battleground set up with warm, moist air at the surface colliding with a strong cold front.  Add in that upper disturbance/energy in central Texas, and we have all the ingredients for strong storms.

Make sure you have the FOX 8 Weather App near you tonight in case warnings are issued.

The first front tomorrow will not be drastic, but the one coming Sunday night is much colder. We are not done with sweaters and jackets.  Keep up on the weather this evening.  The main severe risk appears to arrive between 10 PM & 3 AM.  Damaging winds (greater than 58 mph) appear to be the greatest threat.  Rainfall amounts should be 1-2" south of Lake P. and 1-3" on the North Shore.  Stay tuned!

Severe Risk Here Wednesday Night

Computer guidance is still bringing upper energy into Louisiana late Wednesday into early Thursday as a cold front will bring relief from the spring warmth and muggies. Today, the greatest severe risk is far to our north and west.  SPC lowers the risk level for Wednesday & Thursday, but level 2 is brushing parts of the North Shore.  Today's risk is on top.

My thinking is SPC will increase the risk levels tomorrow.  Here's where the upper low is right now.

There is another upper trough entering the northern states that will serve as the "kicker" for the southern system.  This afternoon, T-Storms are just starting to pop over Texas.

The first of many tornado watches covers west central Texas.  As the cold front pushes into the warm, moist air mass, storms should start to fire off.

As you can see, there is a large temperature change behind the cold front.  Also note, 60+ dew points have surged northward into Missouri & Illinois.  That's where SPC has just issued a new tornado watch.

We have no issues with the weather here today.  Computers bring a squall line through us well after dark and near midnight when most of us will be sleeping.  That threat is TOMORROW night.

It will be cooler behind this front, but Monday's cold front will be much colder.  We are not done with sweater & jacket weather.  Stay tuned!