NHC Increases Chances for Kyle, Wednesday Front Fizzles Here

We are in the tail end of this 2026 Hurricane season with the threat for tropical systems now limited to the southern Gulf into the Caribbean and generally east of the Bahamas. Satellite views indicate clusters of unorganized T-Storms, but computer models keep hinting something will form late this week in an area NHC is highlighting.

We still have significant SW upper flow that should hinder any rapid development.  However, NHC now is giving this area a 40% chance for forming Kyle.  It will be another "fish storm" and should quickly move into the central Atlantic.  For us we have an approaching cold front with strong T-Storms that should weaken as its upper support pulls well to our north.

A stronger low is coming into California and that should bring us a stronger cold front for Sunday & Monday.

There is very little cooler air behind this front, but it should bring some drier air/lower dew points for Thursday into Friday.

With the upper energy pulling away to our West & North, this line of strong storms will lose its upper support allowing it to weaken before reaching us.  The next system on Sunday may be a little stronger.

The real cold air is building up over Alaska & Canada and it's only a matter of time before it plunges down into the lower 48.

Single digits to low teens are showing up and some of that chill will reach us

 before Thanksgiving.  My podcast on Thursday will focus on the change of seasons and when is winter finally showing up?  To watch the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  Stay tuned!

Models Say Kyle Coming This Weekend, Weak Front Fizzling Here

Several weeks ago we had the "Fat Lady" sing turn out the lights on any hurricane treat for the northern Gulf coast. I mentioned in a past blog post that I expected 1-2 more named storms this year.  NHC has begun highlighting an area east of the Bahamas for something to form later this week.  For us, we have never had a November Hurricane cross the Louisiana coast and this El Nino year should be no different.

Satellite views show nothing is there yet, but many models are developing a named storm for this weekend. The Euro AI is on top with the GFS on the bottom.

The Water Vapor has an upper low over Florida extending down into the western Caribbean.

IF anything were to form, it would drift eastward out to sea affecting only the shipping lanes. we remain under an upper SE ridge keeping all of the SE very warm.

The cold is building up over Canada, but without an East Coast trough, that chill is bottled up in Canada for the next 5-7 days.

As this next front approaches on Wednesday, we'll be lucky to see some drier air filter in for Thursday and Friday.

We have lots of clouds around today but the only showers are out to our west.  South and central Florida are getting the flooding rains we had on Saturday.  I do not expect more than a few showers with our front on Wednesday.  Stay tuned!