Edouard Stalls Over East Texas, Northern Gulf Wave Train

 During my 45 year on-air career in television, there were 2 slow moving storms that stood out for dropping excessive deadly rain totals.  In 1997, Hurricane Danny came over us with no big impacts.  However, he came to a halt over Mobile Bay dropping 40+" of rain on the western side of the bay.  In 2017, Hurricane Harvey roared into Texas as a Cat. 4 storm but stalled inland and stayed for over 2 days.  Rain totals were 40-45" causing major damages.  Edouard was a moderate Tropical Storm this week, but he too has stalled inland dropping 20-25+" of rain on east Texas.

Often times in late August into mid September, the steering patterns become ill defined in the transition from summer to Fall.  Even though we're in an El Nino year that should keep any major hurricanes away from us, these little home grown northern Gulf systems can cause major impacts.  We missed any problems from Edouard, but that lingering trough/weakness lingers along the northern Gulf coast.

Water vapor view has an upper low/wave moving our way for Thursday & Friday.  There is a weak rotation over Florida around Orlando.

No model develops any of these systems, but it should mean our daily rain chances will continue through this holiday weekend.

Until the upper pattern changes, September over the East will remain hot while the West has cooled down.  For the next 10-14 days, the tropics in the Atlantic should stay quiet.

Not so in the Pacific, where we have two Cat. 4 hurricanes and 3 Tropical Storms.

Right now, Hawaii looks to be between Karina going to the north and Lowell staying just to the south.  As the MJO heads towards phases 8 & 1, I look for the Atlantic Basin to get active the last two weeks of September into mid October when the cold fronts start coming.  Stay tuned!

Edouard Moves Inland Over SW Louisiana, MJO Moving More Favorable, Atlantic Getting Active?

Tropical Storm Edouard has moved inland just east of the Sabine River into SW Louisiana.  He has slowly strengthened as he approached the coast, but there was no rapid intensification to a Hurricane as NHC earlier feared.  All Hurricane Watches have been cancelled.  This is a very small, compact Tropical Storm with impacts confined to 20-30 miles around the center.  

It appears the heaviest rain bands and strongest winds are on the west & south sides of Edouard.  Radar at 2 PM has the center at the coast moving inland.

Note the 56 knot wind at the buoy at Sabine Pass.  That is why NHC increased Edouard's winds to 60 mph on their 2 PM advisory.  As NWS Director Ken Graham (former Dir. NHC) once said, "there is no such thing as justa Tropical Storm".  Even though this is a very tiny storm, those locations (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) will get quite a pounding & a soaking for a few more hours.  I talked about the MJO yesterday going from phase 6 into 7.  (Phases 8 & 1 are favorable for Atlantic development).

Even though the MJO is going into the favorable (rising air) phase for us, it is inside the inner circle for less development.  However, the Atlantic is showing some life.  On this afternoon's podcast, we'll look at those areas that might show development.  To see & hear what I think, go to bobbreck.com and sign up. You can view a past podcast that explained what is the MJO.

The cost is only $2/month to have access to Your Weather & Hurricane Authority.  The podcast will air around 5 PM today.  

Today is the first day of Meteorological Fall and the first day of September, which historically is the most active month for hurricanes.  5-6 weeks to go till the "Fat Lady" sings.  Stay tuned!