Where Are Hurricane Outlooks? Quiet Week Gradual Warming, Breezy

I don't go to the National Hurricane Conference now that I'm retired, but for the many years I did go, the biggest news was the late Dr. Bill Gray's Hurricane Predictions.  Well, the conference was last week and I've been doing Google searches for hurricane outlooks and the only two I've found are from AccuWeather and WeatherBell Analytics.  Weather Bell is calling for below normal/average number of storms while AccuWeather is near normal.  We begin with Weather Bell's outlook.

They base that off the predicted strong El Nino (red colors) that will develop during the heart of the season in August.  The 30 year average is 14 named storms with 7 hurricanes, 3 becoming major.  As you can see, their 11, 4 & 1 are way lower than that.  here's AccuWeather's numbers

Their numbers are more in line with the 30 year average.  On first glance, you would be relieved to see the lower numbers.  My take recalls 1992 when less than 10 named storms developed, but the first one (Andrew) was a Category 5 and changed the landscape of south Florida for decades.  It did force their government to pass the strongest building codes in the nation.  Hey, we know the 2026 Hurricane season is coming.  I like the lower numbers, but we still have to be ready for that Andrew type storm.  More to come.  locally this week, it's all about wind.

NWS has issued a coastal flood advisory that is likely to be expanded as strong easterly winds will pile waters up into Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.  But why?

A large surface high is centered up to our north with an old frontal boundary down over the Gulf.  The pressure gradient between them will create strong easterly winds resulting in higher tides for most of this week.  in addition, another weak upper disturbance is moving over the southern Plains.

That will give us filtered sunshine for the next two days.  I don't see any rain this week, although local weathercasters are CYAs by saying 10-20% rain chances.

I don't see any cold air returning this week and with such low dew points, rain chances should be near zero except along the coasts.

We are in that good time of the year where any cold fronts are just bringing drier air and the threat of any freezes are long gone.  We're going to try and have a new podcast of my fishing with my grandson in Kentucky this past weekend sometime this week.  Remember, to see my podcast, you have to sign up at bobbreck.com.  The cost is $2/month and it will allow you to hear and see me during this approaching hurricane season.  If you're satisfied with your favorite local weathercaster repeating what the National Hurricane Center puts out, then do nothing.  If you liked to know "what does Nash think (Now Bob)" then sign up as I'm not afraid to go against computer models.  Repeating what you can easily get on line is not me.  I tell you what I think and Why.  For the cost of one Powerball ticket/month, you can access that information.  It's why Ch. 8 keeps me on as their Hurricane Consultant. Go sign up & stay tuned!

Happy Easter, Weak Front Brought Much Need Rainfall, Quick Warm Up.

As some of you know, I go to my grandson's house every April for his Birthday.  Last year he lived in Edmond, Oklahoma.  This year, he's in Bowling Green, KY.  It's been a beautiful time with family, and having my new partner, Valerie, with me has been special.  Friday was fishing with Ethan on a stocked pond, which we will have a podcast early next week.  Today was an Easter egg hunt with all the grandkids of Yvonne & Tommy Hermann. We begin with Ethan fishing, then at his B-Day party.

The Easter egg hunt was coordinated by Emily & her two sisters, Courtney & Chelsea.  I supervised along with my son, Justin. It was sunny, but temps were in the 50s, hence the gloves.

The girls placed over 300 eggs across the property, and the grandkids went out in search of the prizes.

It reminded me of my youth and of the value of being with family during the holidays.  Obviously, Easter is a Holy Day, and morning Mass at St. Joseph was special.  It's a small,  but beautiful Catholic church.

I will be back in NOLA Monday evening and should post again on Tuesday PM.  Today's rainfall was needed and welcomed with the heaviest storm long gone by daybreak.

Most of the rainfall is now offshore, and the cool down will be brief since there is no big dip in the upper jet stream.

The cold front has sagged into the Gulf, but some clouds linger behind it.

Our temperature cool down won't be drastic, but the 30s & 40s dew points will make the air feel better.

Enjoy this nice spell before we quickly warm up by mid-week.  We're not done with cold fronts, but they are getting weaker.  Happy Easter, Gang.  Stay tuned!