Pattern Flip Coming, Stormy Saturday? Colder Next Week

Alright, 80 in January is a little too warm, as it almost always means daily fog issues.  I've mentioned in previous posts that for us to get cold again, we have to have an upper pattern shift, which is coming for next week.  But we still have another 2 days of near-record warmth.  The pattern change will come in stages as a series of upper storms along the West coast head into the U.S., the first on over the SW will go to our north, keeping us warm Thursday and Friday.  The second will dive towards the 4 corners before turning to the east.

You can clearly see the warm ridge over the southern states, but that's about to change as a strong cold front plows into the Southeast. It will trigger some severe weather, but this doesn't appear to be a major outbreak. Nicondra showed these graphics at noon.

SPC has placed much of our state in a level 2 (Slight) risk for severe storms late Friday into Saturday.  All of SE LA/MS is in the level one risk, so we'll need to pay attention as we get to this weekend.

There are no fronts around us right now, but note how the dew points have risen into the 50s & 60s.  There will be plenty of low-level moisture available for heavy rains ahead of the front. WPC indicates the bullseye on their 7-day rainfall totals.

The heaviest (4-6") will be well to our north.  In the short term, dense fog is the main issue.

With water temps in the 50s & dew points in the 60s, daily fog is a given.  Expect travel delays.

We have 2 more spring-like days before the cool down comes in stages.  No freeze is expected with this next cold blast.  However...

IF you are a believer in models at 2 weeks (I'm not), the GFS is forming a Gulf low with cold air nearby.  That might bring a southern snowstorm near us?  Snow geeks, keep the faith.  last years snow happened on Jan. 23rd.  Stay tuned!

January Starts Warm, Arctic Cold Lurks Over Alaska

Last year ended as the 5th warmest on record, dating back to 1946 at MSY.  Part of that was due to the lack of Gulf Hurricanes resulting in reduced rainfall amounts over the summer.  2026 is continuing that above-normal trend, at least for the first 10 days of January.  Computer guidance indicates a much colder 2nd half of this month.  But for now, the bitter Arctic cold over Alaska is blocked from coming into the lower 48.

Some locations are near 60 below zero at midday!  An upper trough along the West Coast with a ridge over the Rockies and Plains has resulted in a January thaw for much of our nation.

Until this upper pattern shifts back to an East Coast trough, we'll flirt with record warmth this week.

When Denver is near 70 in January, you know something is wrong.  Even Chicago is above freezing.

With the sun angle still quite low in the sky, it's hard to break through the low cloud deck.  This week, daily fog issues will return, especially after Tuesday.

Since Captain Hylton and I haven't been fishing since late May, we may try to go out Monday PM & Tuesday.  I might not post again until Wednesday.  Finally, did you see the article on Hurricane models?

My concern is that our local weathercasters will be "married to the models" and not point out their experiences with past storms.  Remember, you always wanted to know "yeah, but what does Nash think"?  Or after Nash retired, "What does Bob think"?  I'll be here to let you know for the 2026 season.  In addition, my podcast will give you additional insight, along with interviews with local personalities.  You can subscribe at bobbreck.com.  Next podcast will be on the Polar Vortex.  Stay tuned!