Hello Santa Fe, Almost Hot Again, Non-Tropical Low East of Florida

 As a sign of the approaching hurricane season, a cluster of T-Storms has formed along an old frontal boundary over the eastern Bahamas.  This is associated with an upper low surrounded by a lot of wind shear.  NHC isn't talking about it since none of the models do anything with it.

Mean while, back over the lower 48, a persistent upper trough remains anchored over the Rockies bringing them Winter like weather with snow at the higher elevations.  An upper ridge covers the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. bringing summer-like temps and spotty daytime heating showers.  Along the frontal boundary, some of the storms are severe as SPC indicates.  The top is for today with the bottom valid for Tuesday.

Over time, this boundary will slowly sink closer to us, but the cold front will likely stall to our north.

90s have made their way up into New York while the northern Rockies are in the 30s & 40s.  A slow moving front often means excessive rainfall and WPC's 7 day rainfall totals exceed 5-10" to our north & west.

70+ dew points are into Arkansas with 60+ up to Green Bay.  Without any fronts around us, our rain chances will be driven by daytime heating.

I don't see a real increase in daily storms here until towards the end of the week.  Some locations did hit 90 today.

The FOX 8 extended is way more aggressive than me.  Perhaps way north of Lake P. you'll see 60% rain coverage Wed-Thursday, but not south of the Lake.  We'll see.  Finally, you know I'm in Albuquerque & Santa Fe this week.  My middle son (Ryan) turns 51 today and we are making it a week long celebration. Santa Fe has a wonderful Cathedral & a lovely downtown shopping area, plus views are magnificent from a roof top bar.

Ryan is on the far right in bottom picture.    I'll have more pictures in the coming days as Valerie is getting to know my family.  We plan on doing a podcast for those who have never been to New Mexico.  Stay tuned!

High Moves East, Muggies Return, Leaving On A Jet Plane

 

As the center of the surface high pressure drifts to the East Coast, on the backside of it surges warm air & moisture from the Gulf.  Dew points have reached 60+ as far north as Iowa while we near 70.  That can be felt in our air as the muggies are back.  More details in the link in the comments.

It's still chilly over the Great Lakes and Northeast, while it's warmer in Omaha & Kansas City.   

A cold front will slowly push across the central Plains, but it's unlikely to reach us.  The WPC's 7 day rainfall map indicates where the frontal boundary is expected to stall with 4-6"+ amounts back to states west and north of us.

Our rain chances return by Sunday PM but that's due to daytime heating summer-like showers.  Get ready to begin what we know is 4 months of awful heat & humidity.  finally,

I spent Easter weekend with my youngest son (Justin center right) in Bowling Green, Kentucky.  Tomorrow, Valerie and I are off to see my older 2 sons (Rob & Ryan) in Albuquerque, NM.  After celebrating Ryan's 51st birthday on Monday, we're off to explore the sights around Santa Fe where we will do my next podcast next week.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  If you become a subscriber, you can view past podcasts like my views on the upcoming hurricane season.  Stay tuned!