MJO Unfavorable, Tropics Shut Down, July 4th Summer Heat Wave, Daily Storms Here

Many of you have heard the doom & gloom regarding more frequent everything, from heat waves to tornadoes to Hurricanes to snow storms yada, yada.  In our current warm CYCLE, we have seen more intense rain storms with flooding, but that makes sense since warmer air can hold more water vapor.  What I can't get over this year is the lack of Tropical activity Worldwide.  Yeah, there have been a few named storms, but certainly the atmosphere isn't exploding with hurricane/typhoons.  I know it's early and there's plenty of time to catch up.  But in this El Nino year of wind shear & Saharan dust, the lack of activity is stunning.  We start over the Western Pacific (WPAC) basin and work towards the Atlantic.

Wow, only one weak tropical storm of all 4 disturbances out there.  But alas, nobody is saying anything.  The Atlantic is just as hostile as the dust keeps pouring off of Africa shutting down the MDR for at least another 2-3 weeks.

But when I say hostile environment, this is what I mean.  The Water Vapor has TUTT lows everywhere with massive amounts of dry air and wind shear.

Is it any wonder why NHC says no development expected?  OK, but there is a dangerous, intense & deadly heat wave for much of the eastern states right?  Let's give it a look.

Yeah, the actual temperatures are 90+, but what is stunning is seeing 70+ dew points up to Green Bay & Maine.   What bothers me is how every national network news program hypes the current heat like it's never happened before.  Is it dangerous?  Certainly, but it was just as dangerous (maybe even more so before AC became widespread) when I was growing up in NW Indiana back in the 40s & 50s.  I'm a believer in not scaring folks to use precautions.  Rather, use less descriptive adjectives like USE COMMON SENSE, USE SUNSCREEN, WEAR HATS, PAY ATTENTION IF OUTDOORS because it's summertime!  I guess I'm old school?!!!  Some T-Storms returned to south Louisiana today.

 

Those storms brought cooling relief to many.  You can see where it's raining and where it's not.

Zack mentioned this morning that the next 7 days will be basic summertime with rain each day somewhere.  Long range guidance is hinting another upper high will develop over the South in the next 7-10 days, meaning our rain chances will decrease and temps. will increase.  I expect several more heat waves (95-98) for us between mid-July and late August.  But that has happened before.  Get use to hearing about dangerous heat.  Stay tuned!

 

 

Today's Podcast, Late Week Heat Wave, increasing Rain Chances,Quiet Tropics,

For those of you subscribers to my podcast, I hope you enjoyed the photos & videos taken last week on my visit to the Biltmore Estate in Asheville.  The views were extraordinary and don't do justice to how awesome an experience it was.  You can go to bobbreck.com and sign up to view it.  For $2/month, you get podcasts about my life, my friends & past co-workers and, most importantly, my thoughts about tropical activity.  Go give it a try.  The Tropics are struggling worldwide.  

There is an old frontal boundary off the East Coast that has several small spins, but none of the models develop anything.  NHC gives this system only a 10% chance, which means it won't happen.  so why give it any chance?  Take a look.

The western most low has a well defined low level circulation, but as the color IR shows, it has no weather with it.  However, farther to the east, that spin does have some storms around it.  Until models show development, NHC isn't concerned nor so should we.  What is coming our way is a return of low level moisture that will allow for higher rain chances the rest of this week.

That is a good thing since daily spotty storms help keep us from getting too hot.  All the national networks are going crazy with the intense, extreme heat wave over the eastern 2/3rds of the country.

Right under the center of the upper high, St. Louis is near 100 degrees and that heat will spread eastward as the upper high drifts to the east.  Radar is showing clusters of storms across Florida moving to the west.

Some of these storms could reach us after dark bringing cooling relief.  In the past, we called this basic summertime.  Now it's intense, dangerous & extreme. You can see where it's raining to our east as temps are less hot.

So let's pay attention for the next 3 months if we're working or playing outdoors.  Use common sense, wear hats & sunscreen and remember, it's called SUMMER!  Stay tuned!