NOAA Lower Numbers, Might Rival summer of 1983?

Yesterday Colorado State chose to keep their prediction numbers unchanged from their July update.  However, today NOAA issued an update and they lowered their number of storms based on an increasing El Nino in the Pacific that will increase the upper shear across the Atlantic Basin.  They give a range of numbers (quite large I might add) that center on ten, which would be way below the 30 year average of 14.

This information is not included in today's podcast that will go out this afternoon.  To hear and see my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.

The cost is $2/month to cover the expenses of putting on a podcast and is a bargain to learn what does Bob think?  I think this El Nino could be the strongest in modern times.

Not only do we have the strong upper westerly shear, but the Saharan Dust coming off of Africa has been relentless. Couple that with all the TUTT lows and the environment will limit any formation.

There are features to watch.  The Caribbean and Gulf are quiet, but there is this tiny swirl east of Florida.

Florida is receiving much needed rainfall while we have seen a few slow moving storms.

Kenner (MSY) got under one of those cooling showers and you can tell coverage was way greater than yesterday.  Expect daily storms typical of August through the weekend.  stay tuned!

New CSU Forecast Unchanged, Next Podcast Discusses Why, Daily Storms Return Here

Dr. Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issued their final 2026 hurricane predictions for the 2026 season today.  Surprisingly, He is keeping his July numbers unchanged despite the fact that models are indicating no activity for the next 7-10 days and this season is running out of time to get going.  However, the peak activity occurs around September 10th, so we still have 80%+ of the season to go. Here's their numbers.

Since we already have had 2 named storms, that means they expect only 7 more during the next 3 months. My next podcast will detail all the issues keeping this season quiet so far.  To subscribe to the podcast, go to bobbreck.com.

The cost is only $2/month to hear what does Bob think?  Or you can just go to the various internet sites, including NHC's to hear their thinking.  Thanks to all my subscribers who have renewed for another year, as you understand Knowledge + Experience = Trust. For now, we have nothing to track.

There is a boundary separating deep tropical moisture from the slightly drier air over us, but that will change later this week.

The Southeast is less hot due to clouds and showers from a departing upper low.  Already, our dew points have returned to 70+ and, coupled with daytime heating, we have popped some T-Storms.

These are slow moving storms with lots of lightning, very typical of an August afternoon.  Get a storm, you're not as hot.

The increase in rain chances on Monday is due to that deep tropical moisture spreading over us.  Remember, my next podcast is tomorrow, so go sign up to join the Breck crowd.  Stay tuned!