New CSU Forecast This Week, Typhoon Dolphin Heads Towards China, Atlantic Stays Quiet

Dr. Phil Klotzbach took over the Colorado State University's seasonal hurricane forecasts after the passing of his mentor Dr. Bill Gray 10 years ago.  Dr. Phil issues an initial preseason forecast in April and follows with monthly updates during the summer.  His next update will be this Wednesday, and one wonders if he will again lower the forecast numbers based on the lack of activity so far.

Will he lower the named storms down to 8?  Models are indicating the first 2 weeks in August will stay quiet, leaving not much time to reach his current predicted numbers.  Brian Norcross on FOX Weather showed how the Strong El Nino winds are roaring across the Caribbean out into the Atlantic.

Brian circled the two regions more likely to see development during the next two weeks, and they are closer in to us.  My next podcast on Thursday will focus on the CSU Wednesday Forecast and what I'm thinking for the rest of this season.  If you want to hear and see my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The cost is $2/month, and it'll give you access to what does Bob think?  As we begin year 2 of my podcast, thanks to all of you who have renewed and continue to place your trust in me.  Let's go over the Tropics beginning with the Atlantic Basin. There is a swirl coming off of Africa.

However, there is a huge plume of Saharan Dust coming into the eastern Atlantic and it's no surprise that NHC expect zero development.

So where might anything develop in the 10-14 day time frame?  Not in the Caribbean with such strong westerly winds.

Perhaps off the Carolina coasts east of Florida where a cold front has pushed offshore?  Not likely since the upper winds and dry air make for a hostile environment.

Nothing is happening with what's left of the frontal boundary that has pushed off our coast.  So unless Mother Nature gives us a surprise, the first half of August will stay quiet.  That gets us closer to those October REAL cold fronts!  Even the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) has gone to sleep.

The remains of Genevieve (gold circle) are now just a depression downgraded from a once-powerful Cat. 5 Hurricane last week.  How about the western Pacific, where once Cat. 5 Typhoon Dolphin is now down to a Cat. 2 storm.

IF it stays on the predicted path, Dolphin will go well south of Japan and north of Taiwan into the China mainland.  All in all, worldwide, the Tropics are below normal activity.   Our local weather has seen some drier air move in behind a weak front.

This has resulted in few showers between us & the beaches. It's hard to find what's left of the frontal boundary.

The heat dome is still over the Southwest, but it has been flattened across the northern Rockies.  We have lower dew points (drier air) here than NYC!  It should make the nights feel slightly cooler north of Lake P.

Daily rain chances will slowly return later this week and that should keep highs from getting out of hand.  Finally, look at these satellite views.  I love to point out features.  First, a classic example of the Lake breeze front on Lake Michigan, followed by a view of the smoky Northwest where many fires remain out of control.

I meant to post this yesterday on my fiancée's birthday at Commander's.

Happy belated birthday, Valerie Adams.  You are my special angel!  Stay tuned!

Correct Time For Grief Support Monday

 In yesterday's blog post, I gave an incorrect time for our Grief Support meeting on Monday at Copeland Tower.  It is from 10 AM to Noon in room 825 on the hotel side of the Tower.  If you have recently lost a loved one and are struggling to carry on without them, perhaps we can help.  I'm asking attendees to bring a favorite picture of their partner and come share a special memory of the good time in your life.  If your loss is very recent and you have difficulty talking about it, that's OK.  Just come listen to those who walk in the same shoes.

Copeland Tower is located in Metairie on Severn Ave. at I-10.  Grief is a difficult journey. You need not walk it alone.  We had a weak front move through today bringing welcomed rainfall and less humid air.

 

The lower dew points haven't reached us yet, but look how the drier air heats up in Texas.  That upper heat dome should stay to our west this week and we'll just be our typical August hot.  

I'll be watching for any swirl that might develop along the front this week.  That is more likely east of Florida along the Carolina coast.  Otherwise the Tropics are quiet.  Stay tuned!