Invest 97-L Not Moving Much, Models All Take It To Texas.

 Just got back from a wonderful concert in Kenner Rivertown tonight.  Looking at satellite and radar loops show me Invest 97-L in about the same place as it was this afternoon.  Not sure what that means since all model tracks take it to Texas.  Let's begin with the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook which has increased chances for development up to 70%.

As you can see, all models bring it to the upper Texas coast and not here.  What bothers me is the lack of motion tonight plus models don't do well with ill-defined centers.

The water vapor view has a "shear zone" across our state with a SW upper flow over us with northern Louisiana in a ENE flow.  I remember one of my hurricane mentors explain when a storm slows down or stalls, it often means it's changing direction of forward motion.  Radar has most rainfall offshore right now.

A recon flight is scheduled for Monday morning and we'll know then if Invest 97-L has a closed low level circulation.  This is a very small system and even if it headed northward towards us, the greatest impact would be heavy rainfall (3-5").  I'll have an update after the NHC 10 AM update tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Edouard Coming To NW Gulf? Dolly Not Done Yet?

 Since we remain in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase of the MJO, I'm not expecting any rapid development of the two systems NHC is watching.  They do believe the closed circulation down south of Grand Isle will become a Tropical Depression or Storm (Edouard) before it reaches the upper Texas Coast on Tuesday.  Perhaps you've noticed the increase in winds over us today?  Something is slowly developing down in the Gulf where buoys show we have west winds and a circulation.

Even though we have a surface rotation, there is no concentration of storms around the center. Still, NHC has increased chances for development up to 50%

Wave heights are not increasing much, yet don't be surprised to see NHC make Invest 97-L a Tropical Depression at 4 PM.  Spaghetti plots all take him to the upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  That will keep most of the wind and storm surge away from SE LA/MS.  We will see some rainy/squally periods, but there should be no significant impacts for us.  The upper heat dome will steer Dolly westward and not northward.

Another tropical wave east of Florida may increase our rain chances later this week.  Now for Dolly. There is still something remaining even though at the surface, we no longer have a closed rotation.

She is bringing some welcomed rains to all the Islands including Puerto Rico.  The wave heights indicate Dolly's "DNA" is still there.

Several models do bring whatever is left of Dolly into the Gulf late next week.  No model develops her into more than a strong tropical wave.   I'll have a special podcast this afternoon for my subscribers.

Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Let's see if NHC makes 97-L Tropical Depression # 5 at 4 pm.  Stay tuned!