Another May Front Brings Heavy Rain Potential

 The deeper we get into May, the weaker the fronts become in terms of bringing us cooler air. However, typically as they lose upper support, they stall over us creating a boundary will waves of heavy rains keep coming over the same tracks (training).  We all remember the 1st of the "hundred year floods" back on May 3rd 1978.  A slow moving cold front stall over the South Shore before drifting back over the North Shore the next day.  It resulted in rain totals of 15-20"+ causing extensive flooding of cars and homes. I'm not saying that will happen with this coming front on Thursday, but we need to pay attention for where the front stalls out.  WPC is giving rain totals over the North Shore in excess of 4-6"+ with generally 2-3" south of Lake P. (Orange-reds = greater than 5")

The upper pattern features a trough extending from central Canada back to off the Baja with a west to east flow over us.  That low south of California is cutoff from the main flow and won't reach us until Saturday. The upper part of the trough will bring us the cold front that will stall Thursday night through Saturday.  SPC does believe there is a severe weather risk, but they keep that area far to our north.  On top is today followed by Wednesday & Thursday.

The bottom view is valid for Thursday which lowers the severe risk but hints at where the frontal boundary will stall out.  It it's like the last front, it won't linger.  But look at the 70+ dew points to our west.

That is deep low level tropical moisture streaming out of the Gulf just waiting for a front and/or upper disturbance to provide the lift for heavy rains. Cloud cover is extensive to our west and we probably won't see much sunshine before Sunday.

We should have no problems on Wednesday with the rain threat increasing, especially Thursday PM into the weekend.  As my past posts have mentioned, it all about where (location) the boundary sets up. Tend to agree with the FOX 8 extended having a First Alert up for Friday & Saturday.

Combined with last week's soakers, our mini-drought should be over by Sunday.  Finally, I will have a new Podcast giving my views to the 2026 hurricane season on  Wednesday or Thursday.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  With the hurricane season just around the corner, if you want to know more than what the National Hurricane Center puts out, become a subscriber for $2/month.  That's one Powerball ticket.  Stay tuned!

Where Have All The Satellites Gone? "Certified" Most Accurate? Pet Peeve Day

 Since we have nothing going on, I thought I'd vent some on the state of broadcasting today.  When I retired 10 years ago, I used many satellite loops to help me in my storytelling.  I never said, "as you can see" waving my arms around.   Nope, I pointed out the features that would be driving our future weather.  Not anymore, in fact, I've watched several local TV stations where they don't even show satellite pictures! Who's mentoring these young people?  It's all about models graphics.  Here's what I still do. The basic satellite view does show the cold front that has pushed down over the Gulf.  But what else?

We have an upper disturbance diving down from Canada that will bring us our next cold front late Wednesday into Thursday with the upper low off of California lagging back until next weekend.  But what do locals show?    Upper air models with squiggling lines that 90% of the folks have no clue what they're watching.  Or which station will show you satellite views pointing out special features?

Like what is the difference between the higher clouds streaking across west Texas compared to the speckly lower clouds over east TX & LA?  Nope, never will see that.  Or how about seeing the water vapor loop and having the weathercaster point out all the dry air over us.

That would be OK IF they pointed out this is the atmosphere at 10-15,000'.  Nope, they talk about it like it's at the surface.  Or as we approach hurricane season, will anyone show the dust pouring off of Africa?

Nope, it's like the consultants at each station is telling the weathercasters what to say & show.  They all look the same.  Why do they show "hour by hour" when that is on our cell phones?  Or the new trend is showing the 7 day forecast (also on our cell phones) and never explaining why.  And if that isn't enough, one local channel keeps plugging CERTIFIED most accurate for 13 years despite losing all of their weather personnel.  That is a joke.  The company that "certifies" is called WeatheRate and they charge a fee to that station.

Ch. 8 had a chance to pay that company over 13 years ago, but my late boss (Joe Cook) said why would we pay someone to tell our viewers you are the most accurate when our market research already tells us that?  We declined.  Think about this...you lose all of your local weather staff & that doesn't affect your accuracy?  You be the judge.    OK, as I mentioned, there is nothing going on today or Monday.  But that upper low dropping out of Canada will increase a severe threat by Tuesday.

SPC sags that area near us for Wednesday.

This good feel air will be leaving as we warm back up and humidity returns.

We still have at least two more cold fronts coming before you know what's coming.  I will air my next podcast either Tuesday or Wednesday on the upcoming hurricane season.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  It is ad free, hence the $2/mo. cost.  During hurricane season, it'll be your way to hear what I feel and not just what NHC feeds the local media.  Stay tuned!