Is Arthur Reforming Farther To East? Shear Remains King

 While I await the 4 PM advisory from NHC and get ready for my next podcast around 5 PM, I thought I'd share what I'm seeing on satellite and radar.  First, on the visible loop, the old well defined exposed circulation along the Texas coast appears to have fallen apart.  I'm guessing, based on satellite & radar views, a new center is trying to form nearer the storms over the Gulf.  Here's what I mean.

The old center is the smaller L with the possible new center the bigger L.  Whatever, the WSW upper wind shear appears to not allow any surface center to get better organized.  Unless you look farther to the south where there is less shear and colder, brighter (reds) cloud tops.

Could that be where a new center is trying to form where there is also an upper high aiding the outflow?

I'm finding the models to be really clueless with this disturbance. So far today, the bulk of the heavy rains remain offshore.  Not sure what NHC will do, but if you want to see & hear more of my thoughts, go to bobbreck.com and sign up for my podcast.

It will cost you $2/month to access my podcast, but if you want more than what NHC & NWS says, then go sign up.  Next podcast coming after 5 PM.  Stay tuned!

 

Arthur Struggling With Wind Shear, Careful Crying Wolf, Podcast Coming This PM

 On their 10 AM advisory, NHC upgraded PTC # 1 to Tropical Storm Arthur based on offshore buoy data having winds gusting to 50 knots plus.  However, satellite views clearly show the heavy storms are far removed from the center over the Gulf with Arthurs center exposed with no storms around it Here the NHC official Track.

The yellow arrow points out where the center of rotation is, hugging the Texas coast.  However, the Color Infrared and radar views have the storms 150+ miles away due to the strong WSW upper wind shear.

My thinking is we will see a split in the tropical moisture plume with the storms down over the Gulf heading eastward with some storms closer to Arthur's center developing later today and moving inland to our west as the WPC's rainfall map suggests.

As you can see, this would leave the areas south of Lake Pontchartrain with only 1-2".  It's the North Shore that gets the drenching, but with lower totals (5-10") than predicted yesterday.

I will have my next podcast after the NHC's 4 pm advisory.  If you want to hear how I am different than what the NWS/NHC forecast is, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.   Will the bark from Arthur be worse than his bite?  Stay tuned!