Lala Leaving Hawaii, Rest of Tropics Quiet, August Heat Over South

I'm sure many of you weather geeks have been flipping back & forth between The Weather Channel & FOX Weather to see Hurricane Lala batter Hawaii.  She has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as the main rain bands have diminished.  The eastern slopes of the Big Island received 30-40" of rain, but that is the least populated Island.  Still, watching Jim Cantore in front of a rock slide of boulders that blocked a main highway was impressive.  I thought Brian Norcross did a wonderful job as FOX Weather's hurricane specialist.  We never want to see someone else deal with these storms, but we deserve a break after our recent storms.  

Here we are in the Heart of Hurricane season, and currently Lala is the only named storm worldwide.  That's stunning in a warming climate that was supposed to produce more storms.  Look at the Atlantic.

I've circled an area (yellow) east of Bermuda that has a swirl, but NHC doesn't mention it in their Tropical Weather Outlook.  The Gulf is nearly clear.

So what's going on?  In my podcast this week, I explained the Madden-Julian Oscillation that affects tropical development.  The Atlantic Basin is in phase 6, which is the sinking air phase.  That explains why those early systems coming across the Atlantic fizzled.  But what about the rest of the Planet?  Beats me.  If you want to learn about the MJO, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Thanks to the hundreds who have automatically renewed.  If you haven't received a renewal notice, go check your spam folder, as some subscribers have found them there.

Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about except the August heat.  We only have about another 2-3 weeks of these awful 95-100 degree highs before the longer nights of September start to bring some relief to the North Shore.  Until Lake P. starts to cool down, the South Shore will have that Lake effect.

That upper heat dome will slowly shift to our west, allowing for some daytime heating storms to develop.

There are heavy storms bringing much-needed cooling relief to some, but they are slow movers and dumping heavy flooding rainfall too. 

Only one model (GFS) tries to form a storm out in the Atlantic in the 10-14 day time frame.  But that system weakens before it reaches the Islands.  We still have a long time to go before the "Fat Lady" sings, but those cold fronts of October are getting closer!  Stay tuned!

It's the MJO Stupid, Atlantic Remains Quiet, Hurricane Threatens Hawaii

To steal a line from James Carville that helped get President Clinton elected ("It's the economy, stupid!), the lack of activity so far in the Atlantic Basin is due to three main factors. 1) Upper wind shear caused by strong El Nino, 2) persistent Saharan Dust pouring off of Africa and, more importantly, 3) the MJO being in phase 6 (sinking air) over our part of the World.  Look at the Atlantic.  There are many waves but no storms.

The most active wave is the western system that will bring some much-needed rainfall to the Islands.  But NHC has lowered chances for development to 20%.  Even the system behind it has only a 50 % chance to develop.

With the MJO expected to remain in phase 6 for another week, we might get through the end of August without any tropical threats locally.  Water Vapor has lots of dry air and upper lows.

 

The Gulf is mostly clear with only a few clusters of storms.  All the action is out in the Pacific, where there is rising air in phase 6. Tropical Storm Lala is expected to become a Hurricane.

The eyewall will brush the Big Island, where rain totals could exceed 20"+!   Hopefully the track shifts slightly farther to the south, limiting any major impacts.

Locally, it's all about the excessive heat.  If you are working or playing outside, use common sense.  Otherwise, enjoy your weekend and remember October is only 6 weeks away!!!  If you missed this week's podcast on the MJO, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The cost is only $2/month and you'll get information not seen on local TV.  Stay tuned!