Tropical Moisture to Decrease, Drier, Hotter Start For Next Week, Late Week Gulf Disturbance?

 All stations correctly called for 80-90% rain chances/coverage today and the computer models clearly verified.  The heavier amounts were north of the Lake and into south Mississippi, where NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings.  South of NOLA there was less rain and more sunshine.  The strong easterly winds switched to SSW and weaken allowing for the Coastal Flood Advisory to be cancelled.

Where it's raining, temps are in the 70s.  just south of downtown in sunshine, temps soar back into 80s with Houma near 90.  The old frontal boundary down over the Gulf is gone and the trend heading into next week should be drier.

You can see how the Gulf muggies have returned to most of the eastern 2/3 of the nation.  Our focus then shifts to the Tropics where there are several clusters of T-Storms.

NHC isn't concerned about any of them since upper lows, wind shear & dry air are dominant. All of the action is over in the eastern Pacific.

NHC is giving both areas high (70%) chances for development and we could see the B (Boris) & C ( Christina) named storms there next week.  Several computer models continue to hint at something trying to form in the Gulf next week.

There is nothing there now so I'm not sure why models have something towards the end of next week.  It's a reminder to go sign up for my podcast at bobbreck.com as I focus on the Tropics each week.  IF/When a storm forms, the podcast will go daily, perhaps multiple times if the threat is in the Gulf.

Sunday should see fewer showers, but keep the rain gear handy just in case.  If we don't see much rain next week, highs should easily top 90 each day.  FYI,  for those who asked about my Bay St. Louis trip.  The Mardi Gras train costs $30 round trip and the 6 seater golf cart was $100 split 3 ways.  An easy trip, an inexpensive trip.  Stay tuned!

Hello Bay St. Louis, Gulf Disturbance Not Happening This Week, Wet Saturday

Yesterday I took the Mardi Gras Train on over to Bay St. Louis for a day trip.  What a hoot as the train takes you over sections of the Louisiana marsh I have never seen.  The ride is so smooth and comfortable while you watch the eye candy out the windows.

OK, so drinking champagne at 8 AM is not something you do every day, but our group of 5 had a ball!. Our friend Mindy took this photo of Ward, Becky & Val & I.  Not quite sure what the lady in the red dress was doing?!!!  I understand the train is way more crowded on the weekends, so going during the week is the way to go.

We got off the train and onto a golf cart we had rented in advance.  It was waiting there for us, and I suggest you do the same if you go.  They have many shops to visit & the girls bought several things.  We finished at the Butcher Block Beer Garden.

Our beer tender Sarah, made sure we were well taken care of, and the food was terrific & the beer cold!  Hail Bay St. Louis!  What A great small town!  Now back to the Tropics.

Despite an old frontal boundary dissipating over the eastern Gulf, upper wind shear is way too strong to allow for any development.

I have found what appears to be a small swirl just south of the mouth of the River, but there is no weather with it.

In fact, despite all the predictions for heavy rainfall, today was like a basic summer day with morning sunshine bubbling up some daytime heating showers.  No big deal. it's really hard to find the front on the surface map.

Yesterday's low dew points (50s & 60s) have retreated back to our east, while 70+ dew points have surged northward into Iowa. As the surface high drifts away and the frontal boundary dissipates, the NWS Coastal Flood Advisory should be cancelled later tonight.

We should see a little more of the Gulf moisture move over us on Saturday, but looking into next week, the trend should be drier and hotter.  Looking down the road 7-10 days, both models hint at tropical development in the Gulf.  The Euro centers it south of us (top view) while the GFS is is close to agreeing (bottom view).

Again, these are computer model guidance a week away, so we have plenty of time to watch it.  Next week's podcast will again focus on Gulf development.  Thanks to those who have recently signed up. Stay tuned!