Edouard Moves Inland Over SW Louisiana, MJO Moving More Favorable, Atlantic Getting Active?

 Tropical Storm Edouard has moved inland just east of the Sabine River into SW Louisiana.  He has slowly strengthened as he approached the coast, but there was no rapid intensification to a Hurricane as NHC earlier feared.  All Hurricane Watches have been cancelled.  This is a very small compact Tropical Storm with impacts confined to 20-30 miles around the center.  

It appears the heaviest rain bands and strongest winds are on the west & south sides of Edouard.  Radar at 2 PM has the center at the coast moving inland.

Note the 56 knot wind at the buoy at Sabine Pass.  That is why NHC increased Edouard's winds to 60 mph on their 2 PM advisory.  As NWS Director Ken Graham (former Dir. NHC) once said, "there is no such thing as justa Tropical Storm".  Even though this is a very tiny storm, those locations (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) will get quite a pounding & a soaking for a few more hours.  I talked about the MJO yesterday going from phase 6 into 7.  (Phases 8 & 1 are favorable for Atlantic development).

Even though the MJO is going into the favorable (rising air) phase for us, it is inside the inner circle for less development.  However, the Atlantic is showing some life.  On this afternoon's podcast, we'll look at those areas that might show development.  To see & hear what I think, go to bobbreck.com and sign up. You can view a past podcast that explained what is the MJO.

The cost is only $2/month to have access to Your Weather & Hurricane Authority.  Podcast will air around 5 PM today.  

Today is the first day of Meteorological Fall and the first day of September, which historically is the most active month for hurricanes.  5-6 weeks to go till the "Fat Lady" sings.  Stay tuned!

Still Waiting on Edouard, New System East of Florida, Dolly?

Recon aircraft found a well-defined low-level circulation earlier this afternoon, allowing NHC to upgrade PTC 5 to Tropical Depression 5.  However, the plane has failed to find wind speeds greater than 40 + mph, so they have kept this disturbance on their 4 PM advisory as a T.D.  Some of the offshore buoys have winds approaching 40 mph, so it's only a matter of time before NHC names it Tropical Storm Edouard.  Look at the recent buoy reports.

 

This system has moved from south of Grand Isle last night to south of Morgan City at 4 PM.

Even though satellite views indicate no rapid intensification, NHC has upped the wind speeds at landfall to 60 mph making this a potent Tropical Storm for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts.  Their track forecast has changed little.

This will not have any major impacts for SE LA/MS besides giving us some squally heavy rain bands on Tuesday.  The real flood threat is farther to our west.

On today's podcast, I went into the possible effects of the MJO on the lack of development so far for TD 5.  To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  If you were a subscriber last summer and have not received any of the podcasts in the last 4 days, you'll need to re-subscribe, as your credit card expired.  

You can go back and listen to my podcast from 2 weeks ago explaining the MJO.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the cluster of storms east of Florida and what's left of Dolly.

So you can stay with my free Facebook post, or subscribe to my podcast that goes into detail that isn't in the NHC's discussion.  For $2/month, it's an easy choice.  Stay tuned!