CSU Says Fewer Hurricanes, Univ. Of Arizona Says Not So

Colorado State University released their 2026 Hurricane Season outlook, and at first glance, one would feel relief that this coming storm season might be another quiet one in the Gulf.  However, not everyone is on board with that forecast as the University of Arizona's outlook calls for an above-normal season once again.  Here are the numbers beginning with the CSU forecast.

For you weather geeks, you can go to the CSU website and see these number plus all their reasoning why they believe this year will be less active than the past 30-year average.  They do indicate that the probabilities for a Gulf storm are down to 20% compared to the long-term average of 27%.  I did come across a contradictory report from the University of Arizona.

Note, while CSU is calling for a total of 13 named storms, 6 becoming hurricanes.  The UA outlook calls for 20 named storms with 9 becoming hurricanes.  Geez, that's quite a difference!!!

One reason CSU is favoring fewer storms is the expected Saharan Dust layer (SAL) pouring off of Africa into the Atlantic.  They also state a strong El Niño will develop, possibly becoming a "Super El Niño" that will cause extreme wind shear.  Whatever, I will be doing a podcast regarding my feelings in the next few days.  If you want to watch & hear my thoughts, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe for $2/month.  The number of podcasts will increase as we get deeper into Hurricane Season. So if you want more than just the National Hurricane Center's thoughts & graphics (which you can get online or on every local station), go become a subscriber to my podcast.  It's easy to do and we have more than just weather.  The next podcast is showing my Grandson (Ethan) how to fish.  For your local forecast, watch FOX 8 at 4& 5 PM.  Stay tuned!

Very Benign & Uninteresting Weather Pattern (NWS), High Tides Next Two Days

 I had to chuckle reading the NWS discussion where the forecaster says "we're in a very benign & uninteresting weather pattern".  It reminds me of one of my Drill instructors in Marine Boot Camp who said, "we have a small war right now (Vietnam), but it's better than no war at all".  At the time, I thought what a stupid statement.  But I missed his point.  We were trained to kill people & break things.  If we have no war, we are training for nothing.  The NWS forecaster was trained to predict the weather.  But when there are no weather changes...  Just like the drill instructor who wanted war, the forecaster wants action/storms.  Right now, we just have some winds causing high times and minor flooding.

There is a large surface high up over New England and we're on the outer circulation where the winds are strongest.  That should persist 2 more days before we see less wind for this weekend.  But with the storm track staying over the northern states, we'll see little change on our weather except for a gradual warming. The upper flow is looking more summer-like as the jet stream retreats to the north.

No cold fronts are expected for the next 7-10 days.

All of the country is above freezing with a warm bubble forming over much of the eastern 2/3rd of our nation.

Rain chances will remain near zero (except along the coasts) for the next 7-10 days.  "Benign & Uninteresting Weather?  "  Yes!  I found something to talk about coming off of Africa.

There is quite a dust plume moving into the Atlantic.  I'd love to see that last into August & September.  Finally...

While I was in Kentucky last weekend for Ethan's 7th birthday, we took him to fish.  He really learned to cast very well, but alas, no fish as it was very windy.  Today my son (Justin) took him back to the same lake and buda boom, Ethan's first fish!  If he's like his Pops, he's hooked for a lifetime!  Stay tuned!