Super Typhoon Threatens Guam, Happy B-Day America, Grief Support Monday

 We are seeing a huge uptick in Tropical Activity over the Western Pacific (WPAC) where Tropical Storm Maysak (60 mph) brushes Hanoi and Super Typhoon (160 mph) Bavi nears Guam.  With peak winds of 160 mph, Bavi is a Cat. 5 Typhoon that will cross the Mariana Islands tonight.  Guam will be on the weaker side of Bavi, but they still will be impacted by it.

This uptick in activity is expected in an El Nino year across the western Pacific.  I would also expect activity to increase over the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) in the coming weeks, but so far, it's quiet.  We all have been told this will/should be a below average/normal season for the Eastern Atlantic Basin and that remains the case.

Strong westerly upper shear coupled with Saharan Dust is keeping everything in check despite there being several small low level swirls off the east coast.

We would love to see the Gulf this quiet come August & September.  As the Beach Boys song says...Wouldn't it be nice!  A couple of storms are firing off during daytime heating today.

From NOLA eastward to the beaches, it's a hot & dry 4th.  But from NOLA westward, there are some big slow moving storms.  NWS indicates our rain chances will go up for Sunday into Tuesday as the upper high over the East coast weakens.  It's a basic summertime forecast into next week.

As a reminder, I will be hosting a Grief Support Coffee at Copeland Tower this Monday at 10 AM.  If you recently lost a loved one and are struggling to cope, come see us and share as we all walk in the same shoes.  There is no charge and non-residents are welcomed.  Enter on the Hotel entrance side and come up to room 825.

Copeland Tower is a wonderful home for me and a number of us residents watched a terrific sunset followed by fireworks from Uncle Sam Jam.

With things so quiet in the Tropics around us, I might try fishing with Captain Hylton Monday afternoon & Tuesday.  Stay tuned!

NE Heat Wave, Interesting East Coast Low, Hail Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo!

 If it's July, it's time for the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo, which occurs the last weekend of July for the last 98 years.  That makes it America's oldest fishing rodeo and I'm again honored to be the M.C. of the Awards presentation Saturday night July 25th.  Our 2026 President is Attorney General Liz Murrill with the Admiral of the Fleet (Next year's President) Tab Troxler

We have a line up of great local bands with local food vendors plus the usual kid's events (daily crab races).  But to me the biggest reason for you to register is to have a chance for our grand prize of $10,000.  No boat?  No problem.  Don't fish? No problem.  Live in Boston?  No problem. Can't drive down to Grand Isle?  No problem.   For $50 registration fee, you'll have the opportunity for that $10K top prize.  Just go to tarponrodeo.org and sign up.  The odds of winning are way better than the Powerball or state lotto.  Weather-wise, the Northeast heat wave is the big story.

All the major cities from D.C. to Boston topped 100 bringing out all the global warming alarmists.  But hold on Mr. Hot Breath.  Check out this map Joe Bastardi had on WeatherBell Analytics today.

Do you see when most of the state's all time heat records were set?  Yep, back in the 30s, 40s, and 50s.  Remember, figures can lie and liars can figure.  The other interesting story is the feature off the East coast.

There is an obvious low level circulation near the Gulf Stream, but NHC isn't highlighting this area anymore.  Why Not?

Probably because the water vapor view shows all the dry air to the north, plus none of the models indicate development.  In addition, the MJO remains in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase.  So we're back to our daily T-Storms for this 4th of July weekend.

These are our natural air conditioning showers that keep us from getting too hot.  You can see where it's raining just by the temperatures.

Finally, on my way home from golf with Ron Swoboda, I was behind a JPSO car as we approached the intersection of Causeway & Veterans northbound.  There are 3 signs marking NO LEFT TURN and two saying NO TURN ON RED.   Every day I see drivers totally ignoring those signs.  However, today the car in front of the JPSO car made the illegal left turn.  I wondered...would the Sheriff's car go after him/her?  Or totally ignore the breaking of the law?  Fortunately, my faith in law enforcement was restored as the JPSO deputy put on his lights and went after the person breaking the law.  Why doesn't Sheriff Lopinto target this intersection as it's one of Jefferson's busiest?  His men could easily write 200+ tickets a day and make the rest of us law abiding citizens safer in the process.  Bravo to the JPSO deputy this afternoon!  Stay  tuned!