Hello Bay St. Louis, Gulf Disturbance Not Happening This Week, Wet Saturday

Yesterday I took the Mardi Gras Train on over to Bay St. Louis for a day trip.  What a hoot as the train takes you over sections of the Louisiana marsh I have never seen.  The ride is so smooth and comfortable while you watch the eye candy out the windows.

OK, so drinking champagne at 8 AM is not something you do every day, but our group of 5 had a ball!. Our friend Mindy took this photo of Ward, Becky & Val & I.  Not quite sure what the lady in the red dress was doing?!!!  I understand the train is way more crowded on the weekends, so going during the week is the way to go.

We got off the train and onto a golf cart we had rented in advance.  It was waiting there for us, and I suggest you do the same if you go.  They have many shops to visit & the girls bought several things.  We finished at the Butcher Block Beer Garden.

Our beer tender Sarah, made sure we were well taken care of, and the food was terrific & the beer cold!  Hail Bay St. Louis!  What A great small town!  Now back to the Tropics.

Despite an old frontal boundary dissipating over the eastern Gulf, upper wind shear is way too strong to allow for any development.

I have found what appears to be a small swirl just south of the mouth of the River, but there is no weather with it.

In fact, despite all the predictions for heavy rainfall, today was like a basic summer day with morning sunshine bubbling up some daytime heating showers.  No big deal. it's really hard to find the front on the surface map.

Yesterday's low dew points (50s & 60s) have retreated back to our east, while 70+ dew points have surged northward into Iowa. As the surface high drifts away and the frontal boundary dissipates, the NWS Coastal Flood Advisory should be cancelled later tonight.

We should see a little more of the Gulf moisture move over us on Saturday, but looking into next week, the trend should be drier and hotter.  Looking down the road 7-10 days, both models hint at tropical development in the Gulf.  The Euro centers it south of us (top view) while the GFS is is close to agreeing (bottom view).

Again, these are computer model guidance a week away, so we have plenty of time to watch it.  Next week's podcast will again focus on Gulf development.  Thanks to those who have recently signed up. Stay tuned!

Amanda Forms In Pacific, Gulf Low Unlikely, Expect Local Impacts

The first named storm for the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) basin is Amanda, and NHC upgraded her this morning.  She is way out over open water and should not ever affect any land areas.  It looks to be the first of several named storms as computer models make the EPAC active during the next 8-14 days.  We want that region to be active as it usually increases the upper wind shear over the Gulf & Caribbean.

NHC's forecast track keeps Amanda as a weak Tropical Storm and dissipates her by early next week.  She will not impact Hawaii, staying well off to the southeast.  Let's get back to our world and whether we need to worry about an early-season storm in the Gulf.  Thursday's podcast will focus on early-season storms in the Gulf, so sign up at bobbreck.com to see & hear What Does Bob Think?

I've drawn the current surface features on the visible satellite view.  Low pressure is moving off the Carolina coast drawing down cooler & much drier air across the Southeast.  There is a slug of  deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf and, if we were in August, I would be nervous that something might start to develop.  NHC once again has not highlighted any area in the Gulf for formation and here's why.

The water vapor imagery has nothing but upper lows all over the place, including the northern Gulf.  Upper lows typically mean "hostile environment" for tropical development.  So why the flare-up down in the Gulf?  That is where the split in the upper flow is occurring, enhancing upward lift into T-Storms.  The real question is...where will this moisture end up?  The WPC's rainfall graphics DO NOT bring any excessive rainfall inland over the northern Gulf. The top graphic is for the next 2 days with the bullseye down over the eastern Gulf.

The bottom view is for the next 7 days, where WPC believes 2-4" totals could move into south LA/MS/AL, but there are no 8-10" totals expected since no model predicts any tropical development.

So even though no storm should form, that doesn't mean there will be no impacts.  Remember that front coming down the East Coast?  The interaction of the surface high and the weak low in the Gulf will cause brisk easterly winds that will increase tides all along our coasts.  NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory outside our levee protection system.  It's hard to find the surface front.

Temperatures are cooler over the southern states due to clouds and rain.  But the really dry air (low dew points) is well behind the front.  Atlanta's DP is 50, with Jacksonville down to 52!  I'm thinking we'll sneak into some drier air overnight into Thursday before the muggies return for Friday & the weekend.

As models predicted yesterday, we have had a wet afternoon.  Thursday looks much drier, so I'm going on a day trip over to Bay St. Louis and may not post again until Friday. At 3 PM, the rain has really cooled us down.

The rains are expected to return for Friday and Saturday, keeping our temps less hot.   Models are suggesting/hinting at some tropical problems over the Caribbean and southern Gulf next week, but let's pay attention this week until the disturbed area over the eastern Gulf is gone.  Next podcast for subscribers is tomorrow.  Stay tuned!