Isaias Gaining Organization, Soon to be Hurricane, Rapid intensification Likely

Back in early October of 1995, Hurricane Opal developed down in the Bay of Campeche and took a track to the NE, eventually making landfall over Pensacola.  Tropical Storm Isaias appears to be headed on a similar path , and like Opal, could become a major Hurricane on Wednesday into Thursday.  As he reaches landfall late Friday, WSW wind shear should weaken him some. Here's Opal's path from 1995.

As I await the 4 PM NHC update, here's what I'm seeing.

Isaias continues to become better organized on satellite loops. Data from the Recon aircraft indicates surface pressures are falling.  NHC should increase max winds to 60 MPH on the next advisory,

It is looking more and more like a tropical system with a concentric center structure developing.  The only question will be where he is going?

He is in an area of weak steering right now.  I do see some westerly winds and that will hopefully take him well to our south & east.. You should be comparing NHC track trending on their next update at 4 PM.  I will go into greater details on my podcast after 5 pm. There I will detail any local impacts expected, but to join us, you must become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  All subscribers will receive an email alert when the podcast is ready.  Stay tuned!

Isaias Is Named, Will Become 1st Hurricane, Future Track Shifts Eastward

I'm still at Orange Beach enjoying my Birthday weekend even though Tropical Storm Isaias is churning & strengthening in the SW Gulf,  While I await the 10 am advisory, this is what we know from last night.

Drier air has pushed the frontal boundary farther offshore giving Orange Beach some filtered sunshine..

Red flags are already up due to the likelihood for increasing rip currents.  Here's the 4 AM track from NHC

Clearly, NHC has shifted the cone to the east with NOLA no longer in it,  Why did that happen?  Look at the current wind shear that has sagged down across the northern Gulf,  Plus, most spaghetti models shifted to the right.

That eastward trend can be seen in the difference of the centerline track from last night to this morning,

That's a pretty significant shift from west of Mobile Bay to East of the Bay.  Right now, Orange Beach is the Bullseye for greatest impacts, but that will change as I believe the westerly shear will keep turning it farther to the east.  Here's the 10 am update from NHC.

The centerline track has shifted farther to the east, lessening impacts for NOLA and the MS. coast. The centerline was over Orange Beach.  The new forecast nudges it closer to Pensacola.

Over time, I expect Isaias to head to the old frontal boundary, taking his main impacts east of Destin over to Panama City.   You should be aware NHC brings Isaias to a strong Cat 2 Hurricane, and he easily could reach Cat. 3.  Wind shear at landfall will weaken him, but this will bring significant impacts to many east of Mobile Bay.  I will have a podcast this afternoon for all my subscribers explaining what could change, so go to bobbreck.com and sign up. It's only $2/month and greatly expands on this free FB Post. You'll see why this is NOT a storm for South LA/MS.  I'll see all my subscribers then.  Stay tuned!