NHC Is Bored, New Area Possible Development, Monday Grief Support

 It's been so many weeks with nothing to do that I think NHC is hoping something develops out in the Atlantic this week.  Looking at the satellite views, I don't see much there yet.  In fact, it appears there is a well defined UPPER LOW.  However, the MJO is moving into the more favorable (rising air) phases for development so I suspect we should see an uptick in activity in the 5-10 day time frame. The CPC outlook is on top followed by the NHC T.W.O. (Tropical Weather Outlook)

But if you look at the visible satellite view and the Water Vapor, there is nothing there except an upper low.

The white arrow is Bermuda so you get an idea how far out this area of development really is from the U.S.  Now the AI models are beginning to indicate the uptick in activity in the 5-10 day time frame.

The bottom view is the GFS AI at 2 weeks that has a storm/hurricane near Cozumel.  That probably won't happen, but it tells me it's way too early to write off this season until we start getting some cold fronts.  It's why you should be subscribing to my podcast that goes into greater details regarding what I think.  

The cost is $2/month and the information is something you don't get on your nightly weather programs.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Speaking of fronts, there is a significant front that has made sweater & jacket weather across the northern states.

Unfortunately, that front will stall well to our north.  We'll need to wait another 14-21 days before we see a real cold front and that puts us into October.

We still have a couple of almost hot weeks to go, but it doesn't feel as bad as August.  Finally, This Monday, Sept. 14th) is our next Grief Support meeting at Copeland Tower.

It starts at 10 AM in room 825 on the Hotel side. If you, or someone you know is struggling with the recent loss of a loved one, come share your story.  The meeting doesn't cost anything, but it could help you hearing how others are coping with walking in our shoes.  You don't need to be a resident of Copeland Tower.  Hope to see you there.  Stay tuned!

New Tropical Record, Fronts Are Coming?

 Some wise man/woman once said (maybe Yogi), "records are made to be broken".  Well, in the satellite era (1966), the latest hurricane formed on September 11th and that happened twice. 

 

Now, some of you might wonder if we ever had a season with zero hurricanes?  The answer is yes.  In modern times 1907 & 1914 both had zero hurricanes.  We are now past the historical peak (Sept. 10th) of the hurricane season and history tells us we still have many opportunities for more named storms.

Since we are so far below average/normal, I suspect those 6 named storms might be closer to 3 with maybe one becoming a late season hurricane far away from the U.S.  Found this graphic on line yesterday.

So today makes it 315 days with models showing nothing for another 7-10 days.  The MDR stays dead as more African dust keeps coming.  In fact, it has forced the ITCZ far to the south.

Several private companies have maps showing a slight chance for development in the 10-14 day time frame.

The CPC graphic is at the bottom.  Note it keeps the Caribbean dead (brown) with the Gulf and off the East coast (Bahamas) the more likely areas for late September formation.  The later it gets, the better for us as cold fronts start coming.  One such front has made a push out of Canada.

Note it is sweater/jacket weather behind this front.  However, it will stall well to our north as an upper high will block any movement down to us.  We are many weeks away from our first real front, but the cooler air is getting closer.  What we'll have to pay attention to are these 1st fronts making their way down into the Gulf and a spin forming along the frontal boundary.  We already have 3 storms that have impacted our state.

In the short term, we'll stay summer-like all next week.  With an upper high building over us, that should limit rain chances until later in the week when another tropical wave approaches.  We have now starting posting on Instagram.  If you are not a current subscriber to my podcast, go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  The MJO goes into the favorable phases for us the last week of September into mid October and I still expect a late season burst of activity.  My podcast expands on my FB & Instagram posts. IT's a bargain at $2/month.  Stay tuned!