Weather Cycles, Dry Pattern settles In, Next Hurricane Podcast

 Fox 8's Meteorologist Amber Wheeler at noon used the term "feast or famine" in describing our recent dry/rainy spells.  But isn't that what weather really is?  The idea of "normal/average weather" is misleading as our daily weather is rarely "normal/average".  Average is the better term as it evens out the ups and downs taking the extremes and flattening them to an average line.  I've always called them CYCLES, some lasting days, others weeks and sometimes even months & years.  This past week was a prime example.  After many weeks of little or no rain, parts of SE LA/MS received over their average monthly total in just 5 days.  The last of the storms have moved on to our east.

Northern & central Florida is receiving much needed rainfall.  But we're heading to a dry spell as the main storm track has shifted farther to the north leaving us with abundant sunshine and lower humidity.

During the second half of May, we are transitioning to looking more to the Tropics for our weather as cold fronts are likely to stall to our north.   But that is not happening just yet.

Behind this current front is no cold air.  Dew points are lower allowing for cooler nights.  But under the higher sun angle, temperatures quickly rebound into the 80s.  We're about two weeks away from those 90+ days that'll last through September.  So enjoy this week as it will be the last of our really "cool" weeks.

Finally, we are less than 3 weeks away from the start of the 2026 hurricane season.  

I will post my next hurricane podcast on Wednesday focusing on your vulnerability based on your location and levee upgrades since Katrina & Ida.  To watch and or hear my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  The cost is $2/month and there are no ads to wade through.  Don't miss my next episode, plus you can go back and see previous podcasts including the one with Jim Cantore. Stay tuned!

 

Last Rain Day, Drier, Warmer Pattern Rest Of Week

Mother's Day turned out way better than the forecast indicated on Saturday evening.  In fact, it was so good to see the sun return as it perked up everything from plants to people to pets.  Folks seemed to have more enthusiasm, more spunk to their step, just because the clouds were gone and the sunshine was back.  Alas, Monday has returned us into the clouds, bringing with it more showers.   The culprit is an upper disturbance over East Texas that will fly by us tonight, ending our rain chances for most of this week. The strongest storms have remained off our coast, weakening as they try to come inland.

The main batch of heavy rains has stayed mainly along our coast and is pushing east of the mouth of the River.  There is a secondary cluster of storms to our west that will reach us towards dark.  Since the upper system appears to be very progressive (moving), I believe the threat of flooding rains should be slim tonight.  Perhaps another 1-2" in general this evening, before we begin a drying process.  A weak surface front/boundary will slide through overnight, bringing some drier air/lower dew points for the next several days.

Note our Dew Points are 70, while Dallas is 57, and Tulsa is 41.  That's the good feel air coming our way.

The recent rains have certainly put a dent, if not eliminated our current mini-drought.  Kenner (MSY) has recorded over 5 " so far for May, while Slidell (LIX) is over 9 "+.  I'm curious to see the new drought monitor coming out on Thursday.  Enjoy the current 70s as the 80s are coming back.  Stay tuned!