It's the MJO Stupid, Atlantic Remains Quiet, Hurricane Threatens Hawaii

 The steal a line from James Carville that helped get President Clinton elected ("It's the economy stupid!), the lack of activity so far in the Atlantic Basin is due to three main factors. 1) Upper wind shear caused by strong El Nino, 2) persistent Saharan Dust pouring off of Africa and , more importantly, 3) the MJO being in phase 6 (sinking air) over our part of the World.  Look at the Atlantic.  There are many waves but no storms.

The most active wave is the western systems that will bring some much needed rainfall to the Islands.  But NHC has lowered chances for development to 20%.  Even the system behind it has only a 50 % chance to develop.

With the MJO expected to remain in phase 6 for another week, we might get through the end of August without any tropical threats locally.  Water Vapor has lots of dry air and upper lows.

 

The Gulf is mostly clear with only a few clusters of storms.  All the action is out in the Pacific where there is rising air in phase 6. Tropical Storm Lala is expected to become a Hurricane.

The eyewall will brush the big island where rain totals could exceed 20"+!   Hopefully the track shifts slightly farther to the south limiting any major impacts.

Locally, it's all about the excessive heat.  If you are working or playing outside, use common sense.  otherwise enjoy your weekend and remember October is only 6 weeks away!!!  If you missed this week's podcast on the MJO, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The cost is only $2/month and you'll get information not seen on local TV.  Stay tuned!

Another Wasted Name, Dolly, Edouard Coming Soon?

NHC has named the third storm of the season, but it wasn't either of the 2 features in the MDR.  Nope, it was the swirl way out in the Atlantic that might not even last 24 hours.  I understand technology allows much greater data coming from areas of the Globe previously not possible, but naming storms that last only a day and affect no one makes trying to compare records from past history meaningless.  But let's look at Tropical Storm Cristobal. I've circled all the clusters of storms with Cristobal being the one farthest north in the Atlantic.

As you can clearly see, the center of Cristobal is totally exposed with the deep T-Storms being blown off to the SE.  So why name it?  NHC said a satellite pass over it indicated a small area SE of the center had winds of 40-45 mph.  With such a hostile environment and a short lived future, in the past this system would never have been named.  But let's move on to the two features that could be our next 2 names out in the Atlantic MDR.

The westernmost system,  designated INVEST 92-L, is likely to be named first, and models bring it into the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico before it weakens.  The system behind it already has a swirl, but it's likely to take a track farther north of the Islands and P.R. The other 2 features are closer to home.

The top view has the remains of Derechos that plowed through the Ohio Valley yesterday.  A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan.  None of the models develop either system.  So all we have to talk about locally is the building heat dome.

The reason we are less hot is some T-Storms formed right along the lake breeze front.  Look at these radar pics with the time stamp at the bottom.

These storms produced 1-3" of rainfall and had lots of lightning.  Look for rain chances to go down as the upper high strengthens.

The other major story today was the total eclipse seen on Satellite views.

I still find it amazing what you can see on satellite loops.  Another focus will be the potential Hurricane impacts for Hawaii this weekend.  NHC has designated it Potential Tropical Cyclone 1.

The cone is right over all the Islands now.  But remember, models don't handle weak systems well and PTC 1 remains very disorganized.  Still, travelers need to be aware of potential impacts if heading that way this weekend.  Stay tuned!