GFS Model, There You Go Again With Storm In Gulf,Drier Hotter Weekend Forecast, New Podcast

 I remember during a Presidential debate bay in 1980, Ronald Reagan used a line "there you go again" when confronting his opponent who made a falsehood/misleading statement.  It's almost like last night's model run of the GFS that placed a named storm in the Gulf south of us for early NEXT Saturday.  There you go again as the GFS often places storms 7-14 days out that never happen.

Sure the Gulf water temps have reached the 80s and could support such a storm.  However, the upper pattern remains such a hostile environment with low pressure creating strong winds shear that storm formation is highly unlikely and NHC isn't talking about it.  

In addition, the next model run had nothing there! But we are nearing the time of the year when our focus shifts away from cold fronts to tropical disturbances.

If each hurricane season makes you anxious, often scared, then you need to sign up for my Hurricane Podcast at bobbreck.com.  There are no ads to weigh through and the cost is only $2/month.  If you want to know "What does Bob think?" when a storm is in the Gulf or Caribbean, then go sign up.  Today's podcast is about my recent vacation to Santa Fe & Albuquerque.  Future weekly podcasts will deal with tropical discussions and switch to daily podcasts when a major storm forms and/or something gets into the Gulf.  It's called TRUST.  If we are to get an early season storm, it will have to be near the U.S.  Why?  Look at the Atlantic.

Besides water temps being too cool, look at the dust pouring off of Africa.  That is normal for early June & July and we hope it lasts until the strengthening El Nino generates upper wind shear during August & September.  For now, we're trying to get out of a rainy pattern.

Without an upper ridge over us, we have seen a steady stream of tropical moisture pour in from the Gulf. A cold front moving down the East Coast will flatten the SW flow over the Gulf taking the moisture into Florida this weekend where they need the rain.

As we see fewer showers this weekend and more sunshine, that should lead to hotter temperatures and highs 90+.

This morning's downpours have moved well to our north and east and rain coverage will be far less for the next several days.

Just remember, basic summer time here means hot & humid with daily spotty (30-40%) rain chances/coverage.   Unless an upper high builds right over us, it will rain somewhere each day between now & late September.  Subscribers, enjoy my podcast & Stay tuned!

Gulf & Caribbean Remain a Hostile Environment, Rain Chances here Decreasing.

With the start of the 2026 Hurricane season only 4 days away, the upper flow pattern almost guarantees we will not have a named storm in the next 7-10 days.  Although we have abundant tropical low-level moisture in place with clusters (lime green circles) of T-Storms, there is a deep upper trough that is creating plenty of wind shear.

Upper lows create a difficult/hostile environment for tropical development.  What has changed over the past several days is the boundary of tropical moisture has shifted from us to the eastern Gulf.  As the Bermuda high backs off, this should allow some much-needed rainfall for South Florida.

You can see how the WPC's 7-day rain totals (bottom graphic) have the heaviest rainfall (4-7"+) across most of drought-stricken Florida.  For us, our forecasting challenge will be the movement of upper lows to our west.

Will the current cluster of T-storms along the Texas coast fizzle or hold together?  I'm thinking they will weaken, but the FOX 8 extended favors another day of above normal showers.

I'm seeing a trend back to basic summertime where the spotty daytime heating showers give us 30-50% coverage.  We have jumped into the top ten wettest Mays with 9.22" at MSY.

I'm thinking we should have no problem cracking the top 5 as we only need less than an inch in the next 4 days. Finally,

My next podcast airs on Thursday and is about my vacation to New Mexico to see my older sons.  To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  We'll be focusing on the Tropics & hurricanes during the next several months as my podcasts will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE Face Book blog posts.  You can watch your local favorite weathercaster repeat what NHC tells them, or you can sign up to hear what Bob thinks based on nearly 50 years of forecasting experience.  Nobody has my knowledge/credentials plus experience that has earned your trust, and it's why Ch. 8 has me as their Hurricane Consultant for another summer. At $2/month, my podcast is a no-brainer.  Stay tuned!