Edouard Coming To NW Gulf, Dolly Almost Gone

 Of course the big news is NHC began issuing advisories on soon to be Tropical Storm Edouard  south of the Louisiana coast.  Recon aircraft could not find a well defined center, but satellite & radar loops are indicating a rotation so NHC decided to call it PTC (Potential Tropical cyclone) FIVE so watches & warnings could be issued for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts.  It is a very small & compact circulation with little impacts for us except some occasional squally rain showers.  Despite the fact it's closer to us than Houston, an upper heat Dome will force it to slowly drift towards Texas.

PTC 5 is beginning to have that Tropical Storm look and NHC expects it to become a storm later today.  Here are their graphics.

The timing has this system inland early on Tuesday with the centerline track right now between Houston & Beaumont.  Rain & surge impacts will be greatest well to our west IF the NHC track verifies.

Clearly the heavy rainfall bullseye is over Texas, but note the WPC's Flood risk has south LA/MS in a possible flash flood risk.  Why?  If you get caught under a heavy "feeder band" rotating around PTC 5/ Edouard, the training effect could mean some brief street flooding. Wave heights are slowly increasing (3-4ft) along our coast.

Current wind shear is light around PTC 5 so some strengthening is likely.  But, as I have been pointing out in past posts, the MJO remains in phase 6, which is favorable for development in the Pacific, but not in the Atlantic.  This will be a true test of the MJO's influence since 1) water temps are very warm and 2) wind shear over the northern Gulf is low.

I will go into way more detail regarding soon to be Edouard plus what's left of Dolly on my afternoon podcast.  Several models still show Dolly's DNA reaching the eastern Gulf later this week.  What am I thinking?

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Invest 97-L Not Moving Much, Models All Take It To Texas.

 Just got back from a wonderful concert in Kenner Rivertown tonight.  Looking at satellite and radar loops show me Invest 97-L in about the same place as it was this afternoon.  Not sure what that means since all model tracks take it to Texas.  Let's begin with the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook which has increased chances for development up to 70%.

As you can see, all models bring it to the upper Texas coast and not here.  What bothers me is the lack of motion tonight plus models don't do well with ill-defined centers.

The water vapor view has a "shear zone" across our state with a SW upper flow over us with northern Louisiana in a ENE flow.  I remember one of my hurricane mentors explain when a storm slows down or stalls, it often means it's changing direction of forward motion.  Radar has most rainfall offshore right now.

A recon flight is scheduled for Monday morning and we'll know then if Invest 97-L has a closed low level circulation.  This is a very small system and even if it headed northward towards us, the greatest impact would be heavy rainfall (3-5").  I'll have an update after the NHC 10 AM update tomorrow.  Stay tuned!