T.U.T.T. Remains King, Saharan Dust Still Dominant

Could this be the summer without a hurricane?  We reach the average date of peak activity on September 10th, so we have many weeks to go before the "Fat Lady" sings.  We currently stand at 5 named storms and will probably see another 4-5 names during the next 4-6 weeks.  But will any of them become hurricanes?  Chances are great that at least 1-2 of them will reach that status.

Why would activity suddenly pick up.  look at the MJO above that is currently in Phase 7.  In another week it moves into Phase 8 then Phase 1.  those are the favorable (rising air) phases for tropical development in our part of the world.  So look for activity to increase after September 20th through about October 10th.  Even Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics has lowered his numbers, but focused his locations to along the Gulf coast and especially along the East coast of the U.S.

I think Joe may be too aggressive with the late season activity burst.  Look at what's happening worldwide

We only have one hurricane and one sub-tropical storm right now in the Pacific.  The Atlantic remains dead.  Why?  Look at the dust.

It continues to pour off of Africa shutting down any development.  In addition, the many TUTT (Tropical Tropospheric upper Trough) Lows are creating strong wind shear. Those are upper lows in the Gulf.

No model for the next 10 days see anything forming meaning we will set a record for latest hurricane formation.  IF we are to see something spring up once the MJO gets into phases 8 & 1, it'll have to be close in along one of those old frontal boundaries.

WPC's 7 day rain totals have a bullseye of 4-6+" south of Lake Pontchartrain.  We'll have fairly high rain chances each day for the rest of this week.

keep the umbrellas handy as these are tropical downpours that don't last long but are real soakers.  Here is my view from high atop Copeland Tower. 

To watch the approaching rain shaft move across the city is really fascinating.  For a retired weatherman...Priceless!!!    This week's podcast will focus on the lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and why time is our friend as we head towards October. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up and become a subscriber.  Stay tuned!

No Labor Day Tropical Activity, Heat Dome Remains

 Since 1950, in 9 out of 10 years there has always been some kind of tropical system (storm/hurricane) to follow.  Only on 97-98 and 24-25  have there been 2 years in a row with zero tropical activity.  Well now we have a new record. This marks three straight Labor Days without any tropical system to follow.  That hasn't happened during modern times.

We went through a crazy CYCLE of super activity from 2017 to 2023 and now have gone the other way.

The climate alarmists want you to believe this up & down activity is caused by man made climate change,  Past geological History tells me they are called CYCLES.  Look at these numbers.

Yet we were told that Global Warming would cause more frequent & intense storms.  The recent explosion in the Pacific is caused by a super El Nino, a naturally occurring cycle.  These are just some things to think about on this quiet Labor Day weekend.  Until the upper pattern shifts, expect more of the same with the heat dome rotating down storms in a ring of fire pattern.

Could we see another close in development along these left over frontal boundaries along the northern Gulf?  Perhaps, but models aren't seeing anything.  Hail El Nino & wind shear!  Finally, Look at this view of morning fog up in New York.

You can see all the valleys & lakes stand out in a cool morning due to the upper East Coast trough bringing them delightfully dry, cool Canadian air.  Give it time as that first cold front is only weeks away.  Enjoy your Labor Day and stay tuned!