Upper Low Over Gulf, Stupid is What Stupid Does

 When I came to NOLA back  in 1978,  local folks would tell me "you can set your watch to the timing of daily showers".  And they were right as once into June and through all of Summer, showers developed over the warm Gulf waters before daybreak and then redeveloped inland during daytime heating moving in from the SE moving to the NW.  The timing was late morning into early afternoon.  This summer we haven't seen much of that as storms have rotated around a heat dome (ring of fire) moving in from the north to the south.  Finally, this morning we had a more "typical" summer day with a tropical wave bringing in before dawn storms moving SE to NW.  Part of that motion is due to an upper low over the Gulf.  A weak tropical wave moved along a boundary covering the northern Gulf coasts.

It appears the cluster of storms east of Florida is caused by a splitting in the upper wind flow.  NHC is not mentioning any development anywhere for the next 1-2 weeks.

Aside from the cluster of storms east of Florida, nothing is going on.  No model sees anything through Sept. 15th.  All the action continues in the Pacific.

Hurricane Lowell is back to a Cat. 4 heading to a Cat. 5.  Fortunately, the NHC track keeps the brunt of the storm far enough to the west of the Islands so impacts should be just high surf.  Locally, we just have that one area east of Florida to watch.

There appears to be a hint of rotation east of Jacksonville, but NHC isn't concerned.  Look for a basic summertime forecast for this Labor Day weekend with no tropical threats. Now back to stupid.  We had a slow moving line of storms drift through this morning.

3-4" fell over Metairie between 6-7 AM overwhelming the pumps causing serious street flooding.  As usual, some drivers tried to get though the deep waters creating massive wakes.  Some cars didn't get through. Here are my views from high atop Copeland tower.

So here comes a car blasting down North Hullen.   Oops!  Stupid is what stupid does!  Not all cars made it.

So the question you might ask is this.  "How can we prevent this from happening again?"  The answer is simple.  We can't since the costs to build a system to deal with these excessive rain events 3-4"+/hour would amount to the trillions (not billions) of dollars.  No city/country on this Planet can handle such intense rainfall rates.  We will see temporary street flooding or worse.  Kudos to the Jefferson Parish drainage department.  All the water was off the streets before 9 AM.  A remarkable job of pumping!  Enjoy your weekend with no tropical threats.  Stay tuned!

Northern Gulf Wave Train, 3 Hurricanes In Pacific, Atlantic Still Sleeping

In this El Niño summer, all the preseason hurricane forecasters told us the Pacific would be very active, with the Atlantic basin staying below normal.  Boy, have they ever been correct, as the EPAC has had 6 hurricanes while the Atlantic has had none.  The EPAC has seen 13 named storms while the Atlantic has named only 5.  There are no signs the pattern is changing soon.  The main question is whether major Hurricane Lowell will make a turn back to the Hawaiian Islands?

Computer models are showing a sharp right turn in Lowell's future track that might bring some impacts to the Islands west of Honolulu.  The other 2 hurricanes should stay out to sea and not threaten any land areas.

If you look outside the central & eastern Pacific, there is not much tropical activity, especially in the Atlantic.

If we are to see any development during the next 10-14 days, it will have to come from a close in system.  There is a west to east band of disturbed weather along the northern Gulf extending out into the Atlantic.

The water vapor loop has an upper low over the southern gulf with a convoluted pattern flowing out from that trough along the northern Gulf.  There are no fronts around as we are in the transition time between Summer & Fall.

This labor Day weekend forecast should be basic summertime, hot & humid with spotty storms.  With this wave train along the northern Gulf, it appears Friday & Sunday might see higher rain chances.  But rain chances are there every day.

I've drawn in what I believe are these weak wave features on radar moving east to west.

I'm seeing hints of rotation on radar loops, but no model indicates development & NHC hasn't highlighted any areas to follow.  Just keep the umbrellas handy.  Hey, I have found some good news.

It's getting colder (30s & 40s) up in Alaska & northern Canada.  It's only a matter of time before we start seeing cold fronts.  FOX 8 had a graphic showing during the last 5 years, the 1st real (temps staying in 70s) cold front comes mid to late October.  I think most of us are ready for that change, but we still have many more 90+ days to endure before the "Fat Lady" sings.  Stay tuned!