MJO Going Favorable, Invest 98 L Struggling, Models Hinting Gulf Low, New Podcast Today

 As we continue on in what might become the quietest Hurricane season in modern times, Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics points out the MJO is heading into the favorable phases (8 & 1) for development in the Gulf or off the East Coast during the next 2-3 weeks.  There is nothing there today that should alarm anyone, but now the two main models (GFS & Euro) are hinting at Gulf Development in the 10-14 day time frame.  Let's begin with the MJO.

The black line is now in phase 8 heading into phase 1 during the next 2 weeks.  Joe is expecting that might resulting in a flurry of close in activity from Sept. 20 through Oct. 10th.  Will it be a Gulf threat?  There is no way to tell yet, except look at the 2 usual major models beginning with the European on top.

The Euro finds a closed low south of Lake Charles on Friday Oct. 2nd while the GFS has a stronger system  near Jacksonville.  Are these solutions believable? Probably not since beyond 3-5 days, model solutions have GREAT uncertainty.  What this should tell us is models are seeing something developing with location uncertain.  Today's podcast goes into what might happen as we leave September and enter October.  To see it, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  Sign up for only $2/month.  We are not seeing much in the Tropics again today.  NHC is highlighting an area, but I see way too much wind shear for anything to form.

As FOX Weather posted, hostile upper winds should prevent any development of 98-L in the short term (2-3 days). On the other hand, lets look at an upper low east of Florida.

What I am seeing is a well defined upper low off the East coast of Florida.  Models slowly drift this system westward into the NE Gulf by Sunday.  Could the upper low work its way down to the surface like Bertha? Not likely, but it's something to watch over this weekend.  Right now, the Heat Dome has rotated dry air clearing out the northern Gulf of any showers.

Sure it was almost hot again today, but the lower humidity & brisk winds made it feel better outside especially in the shade.  Enjoy another dry day on Friday before showers return over the weekend.  Go check out today's podcast.  Stay tuned!

Fox Weather Keeps Hinting Gulf development, Some Models Place Storm in Gulf

What I like about watching the FOX Weather Channel is how they don't wait for NHC to spoon feed them information.  Instead, they examine satellite loops and models and express their opinion regarding what they see.  For two days, they have been mentioning an upper low will move across Florida this weekend and enter the Gulf for next week. I've talked in past post about getting another tropical threat along the northern Gulf will come from a close in development.  Let's look at the FOX Weather graphics.

If this solution verifies, we'll stay on the dry side of this low through this weekend.  That Heat dome could force the low to drift farther down over the hottest waters of the Gulf early next week.

Most computer models are NOT developing anything.  However, The GFS & GFS AI models do place a storm in the Gulf for the following week. The GFS on top is valid for 9-25 .

The GFS AI model has a system just south of our coastline valid for Oct. 1st, two weeks away.  We all know how badly the GFS model is beyond 5-7 days.  Still, since the MJO is heading into phases 8 & 1 (favorable rising air), we should not just ignore that model. 

If you are a subscriber to my podcast, we explained the MJO weeks ago.

Tomorrow's podcast will focus on possible Gulf development the last week in September.  To see & hear what I think, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com for $2/month.  Subscribing to my Facebook post does NOT give you access to my podcast.  You must go to bobbreck.com.

Right now, all NHC is talking about is a weak low east of Bermuda.

I'm more concerned about the yellow circle that could get into the Gulf.  Models keep 98-L nearly stationary for the next 4-5 days.

The Google AI model even makes 98-L a hurricane, but as you can see, it's not our threat.

There are no signs that the upper heat Dome will move through this weekend.

So until we start getting some real cold fronts, I will not call the "Fat Lady" into singing for another 3-4 weeks.  Go sign up to my podcast to learn about what I'm thinking that NHC isn't talking about just yet.  Stay tuned!