FOX Weather Pushing Weekend Gulf Low, NHC Sees Only Atlantic Low

 Yesterday FOX Weather was really pushing development of low pressure in the central Gulf.  This was based on the Google "Deep Mind" AI model.  Today that model has backed off from any formation, but FOX Weather is still talking about possible development in the Gulf, not based on any satellite features, but mainly on the spin in the "available moisture" loops.

So what FOX Weather (NOT FOX 8) is looking at are model solutions.  Let me show you what I see.

There is an old frontal boundary drifting down the East Coast and maybe they believe something will "spin up" along that boundary.  I do see an upper low north of Haiti & the Dominican Republic.  Is that the spin the models see?  I will go into greater details on this week's Bob Breck podcast coming out on Thursday.

You must sign up for $2/month to gain access to my podcast.  It allows me to go into greater details than what our FOX 8 weather programs (3-4 minutes) can give you.  Typical podcasts run 15-20 minutes plus.  If you're a weather geek or just want to feel safer hearing what I think, go sign up.  NHC is hanging on to a disturbance east of Bermuda.

All the AI models keep this disturbance well into the Atlantic off the East coast.  It's in a region of lower shear, but all around it is a hostile environment.  In fact, all of the Tropics continues with high upper level wind shear.

IF we are to see another northern Gulf tropical threat this year, it will have to come from something developing in the Gulf.  Nothing indicates that happening in the short term.  What we want are for cold fronts to start coming. That is happening across the northern Rockies, but a Heat Dome is blocking any southward movement.

So without any fronts, we still need to pay attention to the Gulf as water temps are 85-88.

 

I don't see any disturbance now that has any potential to get into the Gulf.  However, the MJO is going into the Favorable (rising air) phases (8 & 1) so don't be surprised if the folks at FOX Weather are on to something for early next week.  More of my ideas coming up on Thursday's podcast.  Go to bobbreck.com to become a subscriber.  Stay tuned!

Fay Coming To Atlantic? AI Models Say Yes, Heat Dome Lingers

 On their 1 PM  T.W.O. (Tropical Weather Outlook), NHC has increased development chances east of Bermuda to 40%.  There is a definite swirl out there, but it appears to be more upper level than surface based.  None of the conventional models (GFS,EURO,CMC) have development, but the Google AI & Euro AI models do.  Let's begin with the wide satellite view and focus in on the area of NHC interest.

Any development will be slow along with forward motion so we'll have a long time to follow this system.  Here are the AI forecasts.

What I'm seeing is not much motion between this Wednesday & next Monday.  Looking at what's there right now and I'm seeing a rather hostile environment of upper lows.

In fact, I'm seeing a strong upper low (yellow arrows) with a weaker surface low (white arrows) near Bermuda.  IF something were to form, it's east of Florida and should make the curve north before reaching the East Coast.  There is an upper low over the western Gulf.

With the lingering upper high (Heat Dome) lingering over the Southeast, that low will be forced to keep drifting farther to the west into Texas.  There are signs that changes are coming later this month and that will be the focus of this week's podcast on Thursday.  To gain access to my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  

Fall has come to the Northern Rockies with temps in the 40s & 50s at midday.  A weak front coming down the East Coast could bring us some drier air here for Thursday & Friday.

Note the dew points in the 40s showing up over the Great Lakes.  That's a sure sign that fronts are getting stronger and it's only a matter of time before they arrive down here.  I love seeing the temperature contrasts on either side of fronts.

One side of the front has 90+ while to the north it's in the 60s & 70s.  Of note, today is the 50th day Dallas has reached 100 this summer.  Their record for 100+ days is 71, which appears to be safe for what's been a hot summer. Locally, we have a few storms around, mostly on the North Shore.

Locations with nearby showers are less hot.  No rain and temps are low to mid 90s.

IF this weak backdoor front makes it, we'll notice lower dew points which will result in cooler morning lows especially north of the Lake.  We still have another week of summer left until the Fall Equinox arrives on Sept. 22nd at 7:05 PM. We won't reach sweater weather until well into October.  Stay tuned!