Warm Dry Period Coming, Spring Equinox Friday Morning

As we enter the last two weeks in March, long-range computer models are indicating this is the last real cool spell until next Fall.  In fact, a huge upper ridge is developing over the western states that will make them feel summer-like.  Here's the CPC's (Climate Prediction Center) 8-14 day temperature outlook.

LAX & Phoenix are 90+ with Denver approaching 80, while Miami is struggling to reach 70.  The upper trough causes cool temperatures, while the upper ridge causes above-normal warmth.  We are not done with cold fronts, but by the time another one comes, it will be April.  The longer days and higher sun angle will quickly moderate any cold air.  Officially, Spring (Equinox) arrives on Friday at 9:46 AM.

You can see the surface high is now centered to our east with a return SSW flow setting up to our west.  The really low dew points (teens) have retreated to our east as DPs in the 40s surge across Texas. We got hosed today by a cloud cover that limited our warming.

Without clouds on Thursday, temperatures should be 10-15 degrees warmer.

This weekend will return us to 80+ each day.  Finally, I'm seeing chatter hinting that an El Niño will be coming for this Hurricane season.  IF that proves reality, El Niño typically means increased wind shear over the Tropics reducing/limiting the number of storms.  We're about two weeks away from the first early season Hurricane Predictions.  Stay tuned!

Another Freeze North Shore, Major Warm Up Rest Of This Week.

Some clouds lingered overnight and along with winds staying up crossing Lake Pontchartrain, the South shore stayed well above freezing.  Tonight may be slightly colder as winds decrease with clear skies.  NWS has issued another freeze warning for the North Shore, but not for the South Shore.  We begin with the NWS prediction for Wednesday morning.

With the surface winds NNE tonight, the warmth of Lake Pontchartrain will keep the South Shore 40+.  Precautions are still needed for the North Shore, especially for the tropical plants.  But a warm-up is coming.  Currently, there is a deep trough over the eastern states with a ridge over the west.

Teens cover the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, while 50s have soared into Montana & near 70 at Denver.  Our warm-up will only be gradual for Wednesday, but by Thursday, the warmth will be on the rise over us. It is still very Winter-ish over the eastern states, especially the Great Lakes & Northeast.

The bottom graphic shows low dewpoints cover all of the Southeast, making for the good feel air. No rain is in sight for the next 7-10 days.

As you can see, the warm-up really kicks in by this weekend and lingers into next week.  We are not done with cold fronts, but this is the last of the really cold air masses.  As we get into April, the fronts bring limited cooling, but more dry air.  The next 6-8 weeks are usually very nice before the awful summer heat locks in during May.  Get out and enjoy the next 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!