NHC Increases Chances, Isaias Coming To Southern Gulf Late Week

 For days FOX Weather has been all over some kind of development in the Bay of Campeche later this week.  Yesterday, NHC joined the party and started highlighting an area over the southern Gulf giving it a 20% chance to develop.  Overnight and this morning, NHC has increased those chances from 40% to now 70% telling me they are buying in to many of the model solutions.  It should come as no surprise as the southern Gulf, historically, has been where late season storms (Opal) form.

Before we get totally running for the Xanax and/or bourbon, let's take a deep breath and understand EVERYTHING is against a major hurricane making landfall along the Louisiana coast.  There have been a few exceptions (Zeta) and that's why we will pay attention.  I will probably start doing daily podcasts on Tuesday IF anything starts to develop.  To see and hear those podcast, you must become a subscriber.

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  The cost is one PowerBall ticket ($2/month) and I promise you find my discussion & ideas will help ease your anxiety.  Here are some graphics from FOX Weather this morning. They highlight the area for development and then project a possible path towards the Florida beaches for next weekend.

 

The upper low that created wind shear has moved into Mexico leaving behind an upper high of lighter winds.

But before you freak out, remember we're into October and the westerlies start to sag farther to the south bringing cold fronts.

That wall of stronger westerly winds will sag farther south and IF ANYTHING FORMS, those winds should turn the disturbance to the east before it reaches Louisiana. My friend Bryan Norcross showed that scenario this morning.

Those west winds will make for a very lopsided system with most of the rain on the east side of the storm.  In fact, IF the storm stays to our south and east, we could end up on the dry side with a wonderful weekend.  I caution those living east of Mobile Bay to pay closer attention.  Again, I'll start a daily podcast later this week so go sign up.  I'm on the road this afternoon so I may not post until tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned!

Isaias Coming To Gulf? NHC Increases Chances, Grief Support Monday, Albuquerque Balloon Fest

For the past several days, FOX Weather has been highlighting the possibility for tropical development in the SW Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary.  Last night NHC also began to highlight that area giving it a 20% chance for development.  There latest Outlook now has the chances up to 40% by late this week.

Right now, the weak cold front is just to our north waiting for a secondary surge of cooler air to get it down over the Gulf.

We have been caught under this slow moving boundary that has causes general rain totals of 2-3" the past two days. The Water Vapor has an upper low over the southern gulf drifting westward into Mexico.

Two upper disturbances farther to our north should be enough to push the cold front offshore drying us out for the first part of this week.  The WPC 7 day rain total indicates just that. Yesterday's forecast is on top, followed by today's forecast.

It's not a great shift southward, but it is a shift.  Now if the front is in the Gulf and the upper low is gone, then we have conditions that will promote tropical development along the western end of this front.  Many models now show that happening.  Let's begin with the often wrong GFS with the top valid for Friday PM, followed by Saturday midday and Sunday.

Normally, I would just "blow off" the GFS solution.  However, look at the Euro AI & GFS AI models with the Euro on top.

When models start to come into agreement, we need to pay attention.  IF anything starts to develop this week, I will begin doing daily podcasts that will expand on my Facebook post.  To have access to those podcasts, you need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

The cost is only $2/month, but you'll receive my opinions and not just what the NHC discussions are saying.  What are you waiting for?  Go become a subscriber and have the peace of mind that will lessen your anxiety and allow you to sleep better.  Another project I'm involved in is Grief Support.

As many of you know, I moved into Copeland Tower last December and it has been the best decision for me as I met my Fiancée Valerie.  Since I was dismissed from St. Catherine's Grief support after 7 years, I started my own Grief Support Coffee at CTL. We use the same Journal books that are provided by the Al Copeland Foundation and the coffee is free. The next meeting is Monday (Oct. 5th) in room 825 on the Hotel side.  If you or someone you know is struggling with the loss of a loved one, you may find comfort hearing how many others are coping.  Come join me as I celebrate my 79th Birthday with some coffee and baked goods.  Hope to see you there. Finally, The Albuquerque balloon festival is this weekend. Look at these pictures provided by my son Rob.

Taking a balloon ride is on my bucket list and so is doing a zip line ride.  Note, not all the balloons are similar.

As you can see by the crowds, this is a HUGE event for the Albuquerque area.  Maybe it's something to do for my 80th B-day?  Stay tuned!