The Fronts Are coming, Gulf Low Moves Inland

 It has been a dreary day across most of SE LA/MS as several areas of low pressure have given us above normal clouds and showers.  Most swirls have drifted to the north are now are well inland which should limit any development.  Currently, we have general coverage of showers that have kept us less hot.

If this weak rotation continues to move farther inland, Friday could see fewer clouds and storms. Of course, that would mean we'd be back in the heat.

Most locations were well below 90 due to the clouds & rain.  What I'm seeing is the start of the Fall fronts coming southward out of Canada.  None will reach us until after Sept. 15th, but the end of the heat is in sight.

The Heat Dome is being crushed as colder and colder air gains a footing.  Most of Canada is in the 40s & 50s and that Fall feeling is coming into the northern states.  We'll probably have to wait another 10-14 days to see a weak front reach us.

That won't happen until after the 15th.  We'll need to pay attention the last 2 weeks of September as the MJO heads into Phases 8 & 1, the favorable (rising air) phases for the northern Gulf and East Coast.  As usual, the GFS has a hurricane developing in the 10-14 days time frame.

Remember the GFS has an error beyond 10 days that makes it very unreliable.  Still it's a reminder that today is the historical peak of Hurricane season and we have many more weeks to go before the "Fat Lady" sings.  Today's podcast deals with how likely are we to get another tropical threat.  Go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for ($2/month) and hear my thoughts.  In the short term, until the fronts arrive, keep the rain gear handy.  Stay tuned!

Many Swirls Over Northern Gulf, Heavy Rain Threat Into Weekend

 On a "typical/normal" summer day in NOLA, we see T-Storms develop before dawn offshore along the coasts and redevelop inland over land during daytime heating.  However, when we have storms around predawn over us, it's usually a sign something else is enhancing the shower formation before daytime heating arrives.  What I'm seeing on satellite & radar views are many swirls of low pressure creating clusters of slow moving T-storms.

The water vapor loop has numerous upper low over the western and northern Gulf.  That usually is a hostile environment for any tropical development, plus we have a MJO that is moving into Phase 7, which is a sinking air phase for the Gulf.  I talk about that on today's podcast, but you must be a subscriber ($2/month) to hear & see it.  Depending on which graphic you look at, there are swirls all over the place.  Here's the Windy.com surface flow.

It has a low off the mouth of the River.  The visible satellite view is different.

It's seeing a broad swirl/rotation/circulation south of Cocodrie.  That is confirmed by the radar view.

 

In fact, the radar loop has the spin SW of Cocodrie slowly lifting inland south of Houma.  What all this means is we are on the "wet side" of these spins increasing our rain chances to way above our daily normal (30-50%) values.  Most of us (100%) will see some rain today but it will NOT rain 100% of the time.  These are slow moving tropical downpours so some spots will get 3-4" (MSY already 3"+) while other nearby neighborhoods get less than an inch.

On the NWS surface plot, you can see a definite rotation south of Cocodrie.  In past years, a swirl forming offshore over the warm waters of the Gulf would develop.  Perhaps this will too, much like Edouard did, but models bring the circulation inland this afternoon.  NHC hasn't highlighted any area so until they get concerned, neither should we.  Let's see if they do anything on their TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) at 1 PM.  Just pay attention when driving around and keep checking the FOX 8 Weather App. for radar views.  Go to bobbreck.com if you want to become a subscriber and hear this afternoon's podcast.  Stay tuned!