Many Swirls Over Northern Gulf, Heavy Rain Threat Into Weekend

 On a "typical/normal" summer day in NOLA, we see T-Storms develop before dawn offshore along the coasts and redevelop inland over land during daytime heating.  However, when we have storms around predawn over us, it's usually a sign something else is enhancing the shower formation before daytime heating arrives.  What I'm seeing on satellite & radar views are many swirls of low pressure creating clusters of slow moving T-storms.

The water vapor loop has numerous upper low over the western and northern Gulf.  That usually is a hostile environment for any tropical development, plus we have a MJO that is moving into Phase 7, which is a sinking air phase for the Gulf.  I talk about that on today's podcast, but you must be a subscriber ($2/month) to hear & see it.  Depending on which graphic you look at, there are swirls all over the place.  Here's the Windy.com surface flow.

It has a low off the mouth of the River.  The visible satellite view is different.

It's seeing a broad swirl/rotation/circulation south of Cocodrie.  That is confirmed by the radar view.

 

In fact, the radar loop has the spin SW of Cocodrie slowly lifting inland south of Houma.  What all this means is we are on the "wet side" of these spins increasing our rain chances to way above our daily normal (30-50%) values.  Most of us (100%) will see some rain today but it will NOT rain 100% of the time.  These are slow moving tropical downpours so some spots will get 3-4" (MSY already 3"+) while other nearby neighborhoods get less than an inch.

On the NWS surface plot, you can see a definite rotation south of Cocodrie.  In past years, a swirl forming offshore over the warm waters of the Gulf would develop.  Perhaps this will too, much like Edouard did, but models bring the circulation inland this afternoon.  NHC hasn't highlighted any area so until they get concerned, neither should we.  Let's see if they do anything on their TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) at 1 PM.  Just pay attention when driving around and keep checking the FOX 8 Weather App. for radar views.  Go to bobbreck.com if you want to become a subscriber and hear this afternoon's podcast.  Stay tuned!

Remembering Betsy, 2nd Half of September To See Tropical Activity in Atlantic?

When I arrived in NOLA in April 1978, I learned the local only talked about the 1947 Hurricane & Hurricanes Betsy(65) & Camille(69).  Camille was the stronger storm, but it passed far enough east of the city that the major impacts were confined to lower Plaquemines and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.  Hurricane Betsy's track came just south of the city and had far greater impacts for SE LA.  But Betsy wasn't supposed to come here, as it was forecasted to turn to the north and move well off the East coast.  That didn't happen, as Betsy stalled and then made a loop back to the west towards Florida.

There is a wonderful black & white video on YouTube that has Nash Roberts explaining why Betsy reversed course and came back to batter South Florida & South Louisiana.  September 9th, 1965 was the date Betsy slammed into our state as a Cat. 4 Hurricane.  Her destructive impacts prompted Congress to order the Army Corps of Engineers to construct our protective Levee system.  Unfortunately, it was never properly funded, and the Levee system was built to standards that Katrina exposed as inadequate.  After Katrina, Congress gave the Corps $14.8 billion to rebuild the levee system correctly and we are far better able to withstand a Cat. 1,2 or 3 hurricane.  In fact, the Levee system held up well to Cat. 4 Ida in 2021.  In this El Niño summer of 2026, it is looking less likely we'll see any major impacts from a major hurricane along the northern Gulf Coast.  Not only is wind shear staying strong, but the Saharan dust layer keeps the MDR quiet.

We are seeing several waves moving westward off of Africa, but the dust is not allowing any  development.  However, CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is indicating they expect some activity to pick up off the East Coast of Florida during the second half of September.

Note, they keep the EPAC very active and that should mean the Caribbean stays a graveyard for any tropical development.  If we are to see another Tropical threat here, it will have to come from something forming along an old cold front that stalls along the northern Gulf.  My podcast tomorrow will go into why that might happen perhaps into early October.  to see & hear my thoughts, you need to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  

The cost is only $2/month to find out more that "what the models are showing".  You'll hear what I think and not just what NHC or the models are saying.  In fact, one model (GFS) now has something forming in the Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame. The GFS long range (often wrong) is placing some tropical system south of us around Sept. 24th.

So go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Thanks to the hundreds who have already renewed for another year.  In the short term, nothing will develop in the Gulf or Caribbean.

We'll stay typical off-and-on summer wet as the Heat Dome to our north rotates weak disturbances in from the east, enhanced by upper low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean.  That pattern will slowly break down as we head into this weekend.  We reach the peak of Hurricane Activity (historically) tomorrow, with no signs of formation during the next 7-10 days. This will establish a new record.

Don't miss tomorrow's podcast.  Stay tuned!