Isaias Coming To Gulf? NHC Increases Chances, Grief Support Monday, Albuquerque Balloon Fest

 For the past several days, FOX Weather has been highlighting the possibility for tropical development in the SW Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary.  Last night NHC also began to highlight that area giving it a 20% chance for development.  There latest Outlook now has the chances up to 40% by late this week.

Right now, the weak cold front is just to our north waiting for a secondary surge of cooler air to get it down over the Gulf.

We have been caught under this slow moving boundary that has causes general rain totals of 2-3" the past two days. The Water Vapor has an upper low over the southern gulf drifting westward into Mexico.

Two upper disturbances farther to our north should be enough to push the cold front offshore drying us out for the first part of this week.  The WPC 7 day rain total indicates just that. Yesterday's forecast is on top, followed by today's forecast.

It's not a great shift southward, but it is a shift.  Now if the front is in the Gulf and the upper low is gone, then we have conditions that will promote tropical development along the western end of this front.  Many models now show that happening.  Let's begin with the often wrong GFS with the top valid for Friday PM, followed by Saturday midday and Sunday.

Normally, I would just "blow off" the GFS solution.  However, look at the Euro AI & GFS AI models with the Euro on top.

When models start to come into agreement, we need to pay attention.  IF anything starts to develop this week, I will begin doing daily podcasts that will expand on my Facebook post.  To have access to those podcasts, you need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

The cost is only $2/month, but you'll receive my opinions and not just what the NHC discussions are saying.  What are you waiting for?  Go become a subscriber and have the peace of mind that will lessen your anxiety and allow you to sleep better.  Another project I'm involved in is Grief Support.

As many of you know, I moved into Copeland Tower last December and it has been the best decision for me as I met my Fiancée Valerie.  Since I was dismissed from St. Catherine's Grief support after 7 years, I started my own Grief Support Coffee at CTL. We use the same Journal books that are provided by the Al Copeland Foundation and the coffee is free. The next meeting is Monday (Oct. 5th) in room 825 on the Hotel side.  If you or someone you know is struggling with the loss of a loved one, you may find comfort hearing how many others are coping.  Come join me as I celebrate my 79th Birthday with some coffee and baked goods.  Hope to see you there. Finally, The Albuquerque balloon festival is this weekend. Look at these pictures provided by my son Rob.

Taking a balloon ride is on my bucket list and so is doing a zip line ride.  Note, not all the balloons are similar.

As you can see by the crowds, this is a HUGE event for the Albuquerque area.  Maybe it's something to do for my 80th B-day?  Stay tuned!

FOX Weather Pushing Gulf Low, Stalled Front Means Soggy Weekend

Some computer models & the FOX Weather Channel continue to hint there will be a Gulf low forming late next week down in the Bay of Campeche.  NHC is having none of that, as they do not highlight any area for development except way out in the Atlantic where the remains of Fay still linger.  There is a lot of disorganized storms over the Gulf, but the swirl down over the Bay of Campeche is an upper low.

An upper low typically makes for a hostile environment regarding tropical development.  But that low is moving westward taking the highest wind shear with it.

Gulf surface waters are still plenty warm, but the deeper Oceanic Heat Content has pushed into the southern Gulf and with the Gulf Stream eddy coming out of the Caribbean.  My only concern will be how will the weak fronts sagging southward interact with the deep tropical Moisture?  Here are the forecast positions from the WPC beginning with Saturday followed by Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

It's this front sagging into the southern Gulf that FOX Weather says something might develop.

Again, NHC isn't talking about this since it's still a week away.  IF something were to develop, I would have daily podcasts, but you have to be a subscriber to view those podcasts. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  I thought FOX Weather had an interesting graphic about which hurricane letter has been retired the most?

It's the letter I.  The next named storm will be Isaias.  Coming so late in the season, it's highly unlikely it will become a major storm unless it developed down over the higher heat content.  Of course we want to see those Canadian fronts start coming and one is by Oct. 17th if models are correct.  It's certainly getting colder up over Alaska & much of Canada.

We have about another 10-14 days of summer-like warmth before we'll need sweaters and jackets for the second half of October.  The slow-moving front that will make for a wet weekend here is not far away.

It is cooler behind this front (60s & 70s), but it's not the real cold fronts of October that will end our tropical threats.  They will come after the 15th.  The less hot temps this weekend will be due to clouds & rainfall.  Remember, a 100% chance of rain does NOT mean it will rain 100% of the time. We will have many dry hours too.

Finally, it continues to be an active tropical season over the Pacific, where we have 3 hurricanes/typhoons.

While the Atlantic has the second-lowest ACE on record, the Pacific is 2 & 1/2 times above normal.  No signs of that changing.  Enjoy your weekend and keep the rain gear handy.  Stay tuned!