Wind Shear, Dry Air Impacting Isaias, Model Tracks Shift Eastward, New Podcast Coming

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, I'm seeing subtle changes that are all good for SE LA/MS and less good for NW Florida beaches.  We have heard all summer how wind shear has protected us from having an active tropical season.  Many of you have commented about what happened to the wind shear?  Well, on satellite views, I'm seeing both wind shear and dry air impacting Hurricane Isaias and not allowing him to get much stronger.  Recon aircraft reports pressures have RISEN suggesting a weaker storm.  Take a look.

There definitely is an eyewall, but look at all the dry air covering the western Gulf.  Isaias has reached the loop current of warmest waters of the Gulf, but will the wind shear and dry air cap the increase NHC called for later tonight & tomorrow?  I will go into what I'm seeing and thinking on this afternoon's podcast, but you must be a subscriber to see & hear me.

I don't just repeat what NHC says nor just show you "what the model says".  The cost of $2/month is one Power Ball ticket.  Go sign up and listen to our next podcast.  I will be talking about the slight shift to the east in model tracks.

Bryan Norcross pointed out how the Google deep mind model now brings the centerline to Destin.  Will NHC follow that trend?

IF that model proves correct, note the highest winds will be east of Pensacola on over to Panama City.  Ditto for the highest storm surges.  Let's see what NHC changes at 4 PM.  My podcast will be out before 6 PM.  Stay tuned!

Alabama, Florida Gridlocked, Isaias' Bullseye Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola

 Last night, after hurricane warnings were issued for the northern Gulf coast and all the hotels told visitors they would have to leave before 11 AM on Thursday, Valerie and I decided to beat the gridlock and drive back to NOLA at night.  Whew!  What a wise decision as there was no traffic and we made the trip in less than 3 hours.  We had a wonderful meal & time at Lulu's before departing and hope the beach doesn't take too hard a battering.

We all have been there with gridlock.  Leave early, avoid traffic.  NHC has been very consistent with where this storm is going.  Their centerline track hasn't changed in their last three advisories with the centerline east of Mobile Bay & Gulf Shores.  Let's go through the latest.

What I've learned during the past ten years is the stronger the storm, the better the model forecast/solution.  It would be hard for me to disagree with the NHC information, but I will tell you what I see.  Here's the official NHC close track. the red is the hurricane warning area with the blue tropical storm warnings.

I use the centerline track because experience tells me IF you avoid the EYEWALL, your impacts/damage will be far less.  In addition, TYPICALLY the stronger side is to the right of the centerline.  That means the beaches from Orange Beach to Panama City will have the greater impacts with lesser impacts westward from Gulf Shores.

This morning, Isaias is a small strengthening hurricane that is now moving faster (10 mph) to the NE.  NHC turns his track to the north based on a building surface high (Bermuda High) east of Florida. What I see is a weakness from a frontal boundary still over the NE Gulf.

NHC also makes Isaias nearly a Cat. 3 Hurricane by this time tomorrow before weakening him to a Cat. 1 at landfall.  What I also see is a wall of wind shear over the northern Gulf.  I think that will weaken Isaias quicker than NHC suggests, plus I believe they will shift the centerline to the east (Pensacola-Destin) on future advisories.  These are my opinions based on what I see right now.  

What should you get out of all of this? This is NOT New Orleans storm.  For the Mississippi Gulf coast, there will be some wind & tide impacts, but they should not be a big deal as the winds will be blowing offshore. This is Alabama & NW Florida's storm.

The heaviest rainfall will be east of Biloxi with NOLA staying dry.  This is NOT a Katrina type storm.  even the wave heights indicate that.

Isaias' impacts will expand as he weakens, but mainly to the east of that centerline.  I will have a podcast out later this afternoon, but you must be a subscriber to hear & see my thoughts.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.

The cost is $2/month and you'll get to watch a 20-25 minute detailed discussion on 1) what & why NHC is thinking, 2) My thoughts & opinions and 3) what could go wrong.  I thank the hundreds who have recently joined and those that have been with me since last year.  See you later this afternoon.  Stay tuned!

Isaias Gaining Organization, Soon to be Hurricane, Rapid intensification Likely

Back in early October of 1995, Hurricane Opal developed down in the Bay of Campeche and took a track to the NE, eventually making landfall over Pensacola.  Tropical Storm Isaias appears to be headed on a similar path , and like Opal, could become a major Hurricane on Wednesday into Thursday.  As he reaches landfall late Friday, WSW wind shear should weaken him some. Here's Opal's path from 1995.

As I await the 4 PM NHC update, here's what I'm seeing.

Isaias continues to become better organized on satellite loops. Data from the Recon aircraft indicates surface pressures are falling.  NHC should increase max winds to 60 MPH on the next advisory,

It is looking more and more like a tropical system with a concentric center structure developing.  The only question will be where he is going?

He is in an area of weak steering right now.  I do see some westerly winds and that will hopefully take him well to our south & east.. You should be comparing NHC track trending on their next update at 4 PM.  I will go into greater details on my podcast after 5 pm. There I will detail any local impacts expected, but to join us, you must become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  All subscribers will receive an email alert when the podcast is ready.  Stay tuned!

Isaias Is Named, Will Become 1st Hurricane, Future Track Shifts Eastward

I'm still at Orange Beach enjoying my Birthday weekend even though Tropical Storm Isaias is churning & strengthening in the SW Gulf,  While I await the 10 am advisory, this is what we know from last night.

Drier air has pushed the frontal boundary farther offshore giving Orange Beach some filtered sunshine..

Red flags are already up due to the likelihood for increasing rip currents.  Here's the 4 AM track from NHC

Clearly, NHC has shifted the cone to the east with NOLA no longer in it,  Why did that happen?  Look at the current wind shear that has sagged down across the northern Gulf,  Plus, most spaghetti models shifted to the right.

That eastward trend can be seen in the difference of the centerline track from last night to this morning,

That's a pretty significant shift from west of Mobile Bay to East of the Bay.  Right now, Orange Beach is the Bullseye for greatest impacts, but that will change as I believe the westerly shear will keep turning it farther to the east.  Here's the 10 am update from NHC.

The centerline track has shifted farther to the east, lessening impacts for NOLA and the MS. coast. The centerline was over Orange Beach.  The new forecast nudges it closer to Pensacola.

Over time, I expect Isaias to head to the old frontal boundary, taking his main impacts east of Destin over to Panama City.   You should be aware NHC brings Isaias to a strong Cat 2 Hurricane, and he easily could reach Cat. 3.  Wind shear at landfall will weaken him, but this will bring significant impacts to many east of Mobile Bay.  I will have a podcast this afternoon for all my subscribers explaining what could change, so go to bobbreck.com and sign up. It's only $2/month and greatly expands on this free FB Post. You'll see why this is NOT a storm for South LA/MS.  I'll see all my subscribers then.  Stay tuned!

NHC 100% Chance, Internet Going Nuts, Podcast Wednesday PM

Back when I was on the air, I wanted to be the only one right rather than wrong with everyone else.  That's why I used my knowledge plus experience to earn your trust.  Ch. 8 overtook Ch. 4 as the weather leader during Major Hurricanes Isadore & Lili in 2002.  Why?  Because people trusted "What did Bob think?' instead of just what NHC and all the other channels repeated.   They didn't accept what the models said.  So while I await to hear from NHC, this is what I'm seeing.

A low-level circulation has formed down over the SW Gulf, and storms are becoming more concentrated around that center.  NHC now says there is 100% chance of tropical development.

Before you all freak out, I still am in Orange Beach and not feeling any anxiety about where this system might go.  Why?  Because we don't have a center yet and won't until a plane arrives tomorrow morning.  

Do the initial spaghetti plots concern me?  Not really.  I want to be the bullseye at 5 days out.  Where do I think it will go?  Follow the surface front/weakness.

This system is more likely to follow the front towards the Florida Big Bend area.  Just out is the NHC official guidance that you'll see on every channel.

The initial centerline track is just east of Biloxi, meaning the brunt of the storm will be on the Mobile Bay side eastward.  We will follow that centerline every day to see what the NHC trend is doing.  The farther east, the less impacts for NOLA.

I will start a daily podcast on Wednesday afternoon.  To hear and see what I think, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  If you're happy with the local channels repeating the NHC information, that's OK.  FOX 8 does an excellent job with showing you the models and the NHC official information.  If you want more, go sign up and join the hundreds who trust the original Weather Authority.  My podcast will explain in a 20-25 minute discussion what the others can't in their 3-4 minute weathercast.  I have 157K+ FB followers and would like to have some of you join the hundreds who appreciate the knowledge of Bob Breck.  Your decision to stay or leave is something I don't take lightly.  Join the podcast for tomorrow afternoon. I'm disgusted to see all the social media posts stating, like fact, this is what is gonna happen.  Too soon to know Gang.   Stay tuned!

NHC Increases Chances, Recon Scheduled For Wednesday

 Overnight there has been no major changes in thinking from NHC except to increase chances for development to 90% later this week.  That tells me, once they get a Recon plane down into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, and the plane finds a closed circulation, we'll have our 9th named storm ( Isaias),  By waiting until Wednesday to send down the low level Recon, that tells me NHC believes there is no well defined center yet.

You can see the old frontal boundary along the northern Gulf with two clusters of T-Storms.  One is NW of Tampa with the other a much larger system down in the SW Gulf.

The upper low that was over the Gulf has drifted into Mexico replaced by a weak upper high.  That is favorable for surface development.  In addition, the wind shear over the Gulf is low with the strong westerly winds across north Louisiana.

So the question becomes simple.  IF Isaias were to form, where will he go?  Since he hasn't formed yet, there is no certain answer.  However, since NHC designated this area INVEST 92-L, hurricane models can be run.

Now before you freak out, remember NHC is guessing at an initialization point.  I can find two mid level centers on the visible satellite loop.  Which one will take over?  That'll make a difference on track solutions.  On the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), they state folks from Louisiana to Florida should pay attention for later this week for tropical impacts. Here are the model solutions beginning with the Euro & Euro AI.

The Euro AI is stronger and farther to the east.  Here's the GFS and GFS AI

Like the Euro, the GFS AI solution is farther to the east.  Which one do I believe?  None of the above.  Until there is a center to track, it's folly to guess where landfall will occur.  What I do know is we have plenty of time to watch and prepare.  Regardless of development, this will NOT be an evacuation type storm for Louisiana.  It is way more likely to turn to our east so those of you along the AL/FL beaches need to pay attention.  We still have time for our first hurricane and several model intensities do just that.   I will have a FB post later this afternoon and a podcast tomorrow afternoon .  To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  Stay tuned!