Tropical Slumber About To End? Quietest Start to September in 30+ Years

 Today is the historical peak of the hurricane season and we still do not have any Hurricanes Worldwide.  The Weather Channel had several good graphics detailing how quiet it's been. So far we have had 6 named storms, but only one (Erin) that reached hurricane strength.  That is two named storms below average.

Zack pointed out that in the past 75 years, 2025 is only the 9th year with no storm on September 10th. But there's more Lee Zurik!

Now I know the alarmists will point out that the remains of Barry caused the killer Texas campground flooding and that Chantal made landfall in the Carolinas.  However, the only Hurricane (Erin) impacted no land areas.  All in all, a quiet start to the 2025 season.  However, are things about to flip?  NHC is thinking so.

The Canadian model is picking up on development for this weekend, but all signs point to another storm that turns to the north away from the U.S. My thinking  has been for any threat here to come NOT from the Atlantic, but the western Caribbean or Gulf.

Actually, several troughs cover the Gulf, but none shows signs of rotation.  No model develops anything there during the next 5-7 days. However, the Canadian & GFS try to hint at formation over the western Caribbean for NEXT weekend.

The Canadian is on top with the GFS on the bottom.  Both are valid for Saturday 9-20 which is 10 days from now.  Let's see if these models hang on to these features.  We mentioned yesterday that tropical activity would increase after September 15th as the MJO shifts to the favorable (rising air) phase.  It's why I keep plugging more of you to subscribe to the new Bob Breck Podcast at bobbreck.com

I go into much greater detail as to the whys on my podcast.  The costs is only $2/month and it supplements my WVUE Face Book post.  Plus, I will have interviews with different personalities, both local & national, during the coming weeks.  But you can't see them unless you subscribe.  Next interview will be former FOX 8 Sports Director, World Series hero ('69 Mets) & my golfing partner Ron Swoboda.  You'll find out that Ron is way more than an athlete as we talk about his early career in baseball, broadcasting & now retirement.  Go sign up as the price is right (7 cents a day!)  Look at these graphics I grabbed off of the AccuWeather web site.

They certainly go along with increased tropical activity for the second half of this month including the areas I have mentioned where formation will likely occur.  So that is why you should join our podcast and not wait until the threats start coming.  In the next  week plus, we will stay dry.

Bruce talked about no rain chances after today for the next 7-10 days.  Why is that?  Well, the upper high over Texas is predicted to slowly slide to the east bringing a northerly flow over the eastern states. Here are the upper air forecast into next week beginning with today followed by Friday, Sunday and next Tuesday.

So with this kind of set up, the upper high will block any tropical threats beyond Sept. 18-20th.  After that?

With such a hot & dry forecast coming into next week, we gardeners will be watering our lawns & plants daily. Remember, Ron Swoboda will be featured guest on a future podcast.

Yep, you remember their faces and yes, I will have them on future podcasts. Come join the fun at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!

Waiting For Tropical Activity, Muggies Return, Not Done With Summer Yet.

On this 60th anniversary of Hurricane Betsy, the Tropics worldwide remain asleep.  Betsy ('65) & Camille ('69) were the two storms everyone remembered when I arrived in NOLA back in 1978.  Unfortunately, many of those folks who weathered those storms have passed, taking away valuable experiences that were learned.   Satellite views back then were primitive, and the track of Betsy was plotted from Recon data.  She looked like she made the turn to the north away from the United States, but she made a small loop and headed back towards Florida.

As you can see, Betsy brushed South Florida and headed over the "loop current" (warmest waters), strengthening to a Cat. 3 Hurricane.  Fortunately, we have no Betsy-type storm anywhere on the planet this year.  However, that might be changing for the second half of September.  Here's two graphics from Weather Bell Analytics.  The top shows vertical velocities sinking (brown color) over our part of the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.

The bottom view has a flip-flop with rising air (green color) moving over us, the Caribbean & Atlantic.  Will that happen?  Don't know since it's just a model forecast, and models have been struggling with developing systems this summer.  Take the GFS.  The top graphic is yesterday's run, valid for September 20th, with a storm right over us.

The bottom view is today's GFS morning run.  Poof! Nothing is there.  My take is this.  The longer we can go with quiet, the better, since the peak of the Hurricane Season is tomorrow & the closer to October, the better, as cold fronts will start coming.  My fear is this year's season will not get cranking until the last week in September, lasting into the first 3 weeks of October.  It's what we talk about on my new podcast at bobbreck.com.

You can subscribe for $2/month and I will have some high-profile guests to announce shortly.  But you won't hear or see them unless you subscribe.  Currently, NHC has no areas to watch.

I always find something to point out.  We have two swirls showing up.  The one out in the Atlantic is at a low latitude, and no model develops it.  The other swirl is an upper low in the Caribbean interacting with a tropical wave.  Again, models don't develop it.  We still have a boundary along the East Coast into the Gulf.

A small rotation remains west of Tampa, and radar is indicating some heavy rains drenching much of central & south Florida.  For us, the muggies are back with local storms.

Today's storms are triggered by daytime heating as highs were back 90+. I don't see another front coming anytime soon, as the upper dip over the East Coast has lifted out.

So if you thought we were done with summer,  not happening this week.  Stay tuned!