Arthur Struggling With Wind Shear, Careful Crying Wolf, Podcast Coming This PM

 On their 10 AM advisory, NHC upgraded PTC # 1 to Tropical Storm Arthur based on offshore buoy data having winds gusting to 50 knots plus.  However, satellite views clearly show the heavy storms are far removed from the center over the Gulf with Arthurs center exposed with no storms around it Here the NHC official Track.

The yellow arrow points out where the center of rotation is, hugging the Texas coast.  However, the Color Infrared and radar views have the storms 150+ miles away due to the strong WSW upper wind shear.

My thinking is we will see a split in the tropical moisture plume with the storms down over the Gulf heading eastward with some storms closer to Arthur's center developing later today and moving inland to our west as the WPC's rainfall map suggests.

As you can see, this would leave the areas south of Lake Pontchartrain with only 1-2".  It's the North Shore that gets the drenching, but with lower totals (5-10") than predicted yesterday.

I will have my next podcast after the NHC's 4 pm advisory.  If you want to hear how I am different than what the NWS/NHC forecast is, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.   Will the bark from Arthur be worse than his bite?  Stay tuned!

PTC 1 Struggling With Wind Shear

There were no changes on the NHC 7 PM advisory as satellite views show an exposed center as strong WSW upper winds have sheared the taller cloud tops well to the east of the center.  Both satellite and radar loops keep PTC # 1 over land with NHC giving it a drift to the NE at 6 mph.  Recon aircraft will arrive later tonight with more scheduled for tomorrow.   At the moment, all NHC is going on is radar & satellite loops plus surface data reports.

With such strong WSW upper flow over PTC # 1, I can't see this strengthening into a major Tropical Storm.   NHC's discussion barely makes it a named storm (Arthur) on Wednesday.  (40 mph)

A couple of things to note.  All the lightning has been blown well away from the ill-defined center, indicating this system is NOT strengthening.  Plus, the heavy rain band that has drenched the North Shore all day has reformed south along our coast.  I'm hoping the shear continues and doesn't allow the system to strengthen and keeps it moving quickly, reducing the rain totals the computers are currently forecasting.

Heavy rains will continue to be the main threat through midday on Thursday, with the worst coming after 4 PM tomorrow and noon on Thursday.  Friday & the weekend look to be much drier and hotter.  I'll do another podcast on Wednesday afternoon, as we should have Tropical Storm Arthur by then, but you must subscribe to see & hear it.  Just being a Facebook follower isn't enough.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Stay tuned!