Pay Attention Time To Gulf, Tropical Moisture Could Head North

 This is a quick morning post since I've noticed a well defined spin developing over the southern Gulf.  This is an upper low, which usually means a hostile environment for tropical development.  However, the MJO is in the favorable phase (rising air) and that means we need to pay attention to anything that tries to spin up.

Currently, there are no T-Storms around it and I would suspect any development to be very slow.  My guess is NHC might highlight an area over the northern Gulf for low chance (20%) of development in their 2 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook.  I'll have my usual post this afternoon at 4 PM and my podcast this week will be focused on the Gulf and early season tropical formation.  Stay Tuned!

May Recap, Back Door Cold Front, Still Watching Gulf

Today ends May and begins the start of Meteorological Summer, where every day will be hot and humid with a few spotty showers.  Before I get into our local weather, let's look back at May.  Two things that stand out are 1) the average temperature was BELOW normal, and 2) how our dry 1st 4 months flipped to very wet.

What is a little confusing is how much rain fell at MSY and where does 2026 rank compared to past wettest years.  Here's the NWS website info with the bullseye of heaviest rainfall in south Mississippi.

Now what's confusing to me is that there are different numbers for May's total rainfall at MSY.  The Ch. 8 graphics have 9.55" & 9.58" while the NWS site has 9.34"  More confusing is the NWS climate summary issued at 2:50 AM this morning has 9.58".  My guess is the 9.58" is the correct number.  But NWS says May 2026 is the 11th wettest but look at their own web page.

  

IF the 9.58" number is correct, then it's our 9th wettest May.  Whatever, we are no longer in drought.  If you believe in models, a "back door" (moving NE to SW) cold front will reach us on Tuesday, increasing our rain coverage, but then drying us out for Wednesday into Thursday.

IF that front reaches us, we might see our dew points drop into the 60s which would make us feel more comfortable.  What we need to watch for is any swirl that might develop along the tail (western) end of the front.  A lot of tropical moisture remains over the Gulf.

NHC doesn't seem concerned as strong upper westerly wind shear is roaring over the northern Gulf.

The rest of the Gulf and Caribbean are quiet, as no tropical formation is indicated by any model.  NHC continues to highlight (90%) the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) for development of their first named storm (Amanda).

Satellite views remain unimpressive, but computer models say a storm will form.  Out in the WPAC (Western Pacific) Typhoon Jangmi has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it nears Japan.

For us the few spotty, slow moving storms of today will be back again on Tuesday with maybe even greater coverage.

Keep the rain gear handy, with maybe fewer showers for Wednesday into Friday.

I'm not as sure we'll see a surge of tropical moisture returning later this week.  We have reached the time of the year when the 7 day forecast becomes fairly useless in planning as it's difficult to forecast daily rain chances beyond 3 days.  Finally,

The FOX 8 annual Hurricane Special airs tonight.  If you miss it and can't tape it, there will be repeat showings.  Stay tuned!