Stop It Already! No Gulf Storm In Sight, Drier, Hotter Week Coming

 Back in the 70s, comedian Bob Newhart played a psychologist on his Bob Newhart Show.  I remember one program where one of his patients had a problem/fear of being buried alive.  He tried to reason with her, but finally yelled "Stop it!, Just Stop It!"  It's how I feel each day after reading bloggers posting about the possibility of a Gulf storm beyond 7-10 days.  Just stop it!!!

Here's just one example of such hype.  Could it happen?  Sure, we're in hurricane season and anything can & will develop during the next 5 months.  But I'd rather deal with what we know than what we don't know.  Here's the Tropics TODAY.

All the action is in the Pacific where Amanda was downgraded to a Depression while T.D. # 2 forms just south of the Mexican coast.  It is predicted to become Boris while another area should become Christina according to computer models.  But what about a storm in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf?  Not happening this week if you look at the upper steering and all the dry air aloft.

There is an upper high over the Gulf and that would favor tropical development.  However, the tropical plume from earlier this week has lifted inland leaving behind no surface disturbance.  There is a well defined upper low south of Cuba, but that makes for a hostile environment for development. There has been some chatter of a possible spin up coming off the CAG, but I see no signs of that yet.

In fact, the WPC's 7 day rainfall totals have no signs of any tropical moisture surging into the Gulf.  So to the herd on social media who want to be the first to say "I told you so."...just STOP IT!  Don't try to make us more anxious/cry wolf until we need to get concerned.  Locally, this week we will dry out some as all the upper energy lifts northward over the Plains.

The good feel air has retreated to the NE leaving much of the nation hot & humid.  70+ dew points reach all the way to Iowa! There are a few showers around, but way less than on Saturday.

Rain coverage is about 20-30%, which is slightly below normal for a typical summer afternoon.

We'll flirt with 90 everyday this week, which is where we're supposed to be in early June.  This week should be the "rubber stamp" forecast of hot & humid with a few spotty PM Storms.  If your friends show you a Facebook post telling about a coming storm.  Just tell them to STOP IT!!!  Stay tuned!

Tropical Moisture to Decrease, Drier, Hotter Start For Next Week, Late Week Gulf Disturbance?

 All stations correctly called for 80-90% rain chances/coverage today and the computer models clearly verified.  The heavier amounts were north of the Lake and into south Mississippi, where NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings.  South of NOLA, there was less rain and more sunshine.  The strong easterly winds switched to SSW and weakened, allowing for the Coastal Flood Advisory to be cancelled.

Where it's raining, temps are in the 70s.  just south of downtown in sunshine, temps soar back into 80s with Houma near 90.  The old frontal boundary down over the Gulf is gone and the trend heading into next week should be drier.

You can see how the Gulf muggies have returned to most of the eastern 2/3 of the nation.  Our focus then shifts to the tropics, where there are several clusters of T-Storms.

NHC isn't concerned about any of them since upper lows, wind shear & dry air are dominant. All of the action is over in the eastern Pacific.

NHC is giving both areas high (70%) chances for development, and we could see the B (Boris) & C ( Christina) named storms there next week.  Several computer models continue to hint at something trying to form in the Gulf next week.

There is nothing there now so I'm not sure why models have something towards the end of next week.  It's a reminder to go sign up for my podcast at bobbreck.com as I focus on the Tropics each week.  IF/When a storm forms, the podcast will go daily, perhaps multiple times if the threat is in the Gulf.

Sunday should see fewer showers, but keep the rain gear handy just in case.  If we don't see much rain next week, highs should easily top 90 each day.  FYI,  for those who asked about my Bay St. Louis trip.  The Mardi Gras train costs $30 round trip, and the 6-seater golf cart was $100 split 3 ways.  An easy trip, an inexpensive trip.  Stay tuned!