Bark Worse Than Bite, Light Freeze North Shore, Huge Warm Up Late Week

After all of the damage on the North Shore from last week's severe threat, I know many people were anxious about the severe threat from last night's cold front.  Even though there was lots of lightning & thunder, the lines of storms moved by so quickly that rainfall amounts were barely a half inch.  There were strong winds (Lakefront Airport gusted to 60 mph), but any damage was minor as the threat had more bark than bite.  Look at the damage reports from SPC.

There were 5 reported tornadoes, but none were in LA. or MS.  In fact, there were only 2 wind damage reports in south Louisiana and NONE on the North Shore.  That severe threat has shifted to the East Coast today.

There remain several tornado watches in effect, but the bark continues worse than the bite.  The cause of this recent threat has been an unusually deep upper trough over the central plains and eastern states.

That flow has brought an Arctic airmass all the way down to the Gulf Coast.  Satellite views show the extensive snow cover up north (see the rivers), and that has kept temps in the teens & 20s. Fortunately, the higher March sun angle has allowed us to warm back well into the 50s.  Some clouds streaking along the bottom of the upper trough has kept Texas quite a bit colder than us. Dallas is in the 40s!

Those same clouds could help keep south LA/MS from dipping to near freezing on the North Shore.  NWS has a freeze warning up there.

If you live south of Lake P., temps should stay above 40 near the lake.  You might want to protect your tropical plants that don't like the chilly temps.  North Shore requires more protection as temps are expected to dip into the upper 20s.   Wednesday morning may be a little colder with clear skies & lighter winds.  With the western upper ridge shifting over us, look for a huge late-week warm-up.

Finally, I attended the Metairie Road Irish parade yesterday, and the weather was near perfect.

The float throwers were generous, and the parade had no real long delays.  I only had one Guinness, but a new friend named Bobby (Great Name!) allowed us to use their porta potties & share in some eats.  Thank you, Bobby, and thanks to everyone who, for one day (one week here!) thinks & acts Irish.  Thanks especially to my fiancé, Valerie, who has brought joy/sunshine back into my life! Stay tuned!

Severe Threat Later Today, Much Colder Monday & Tuesday

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center)has not backed off on the severe potential tonight and tomorrow for a large area of the eastern United States. The reason is that a vigorous upper-level dip in the jet stream is diving down the central Plains and will be over the Northeast by late Monday.  It is pulling up warm air from the Gulf, colliding with Arctic air diving out of Canada.

SPC has expanded their level 3 severe risk for tonight into Monday (middle graphic), increasing it to a level 4 for Monday along the eastern states. It should be mainly a wind damage event for South LA/MS, with the Tornado threat staying farther to our north.  However, damage is damage whether it's from straight-line winds (very likely) or small tornadoes (very unlikely).  There are Tornado Watches out for many states, but this system is just getting started.

Severe storms are developing in the warm air sector, while blizzard conditions are north and west of the surface low.

 

The only limiting factor right now is the low-level moisture (dew points 60+) is confined to the Gulf Coast.  That will change overnight as the upper energy rounds the base of the trough in Texas.  

Visibilities are near zero because of the dust.  That energy will help ignite T-Storms along the southern end of the front.  It should reach us between 10 PM -2 AM, long after most of us are asleep.  Make sure you have your phone by your bed and have your FOX 8 Weather App ready to go in case warnings are issued.  Check on FOX 8's late weather programs tonight before you go to bed.

This will be a short 2-day cool-down and you'll need to protect your tender plants, especially on the North Shore.   I suspect the main wind damage will stay well to our north with the greatest upper energy, but we need to pay attention just in case the southern end of the squall line turns severe.  Heavy coats and sweaters are needed Monday & Tuesday.  Stay tuned!