Arctic Blasts Coming Southward. Gardeners Prepare For Freezes

 Those of you who subscribe to my podcast know about the "Polar Vortex", the scary term used to describe dips in the jet stream during the winter season.  This week's podcast dealt with what it is and how often it happens.  It's a common feature of EVERY winter.  Sometimes it closes off over the Great Lakes keeping us cold for weeks.  That hasn't happened yet this year as the dips in the jet have been very progressive (moving) so the bitter cold doesn't linger.  

I see more of the same during the next 10 days meaning the true Arctic cold will just brush SE LA/MS with the core going farther to our east.

As the first low lifts back into Canada, you can already see another diving down out of Canada.  The good news is the super bitter cold is NOT over eastern Canada but back over Alaska.

Will many locations see some freezing temps behind tonight's cold front?  Absolutely, but not tonight.  Here's the forecast lows for Thursday & Friday mornings.

There will a brief warm up for Friday PM into Saturday before another lobe of the Polar Vortex dives down for Sunday & Monday.  The GFS model hints there could be some frozen precip here on Sunday, but I don't see that as temps look to be too warm.  Could things change?  Certainly, so you snow geeks need to keep the faith!  

Just looking at the 3 pm temp map gives you an idea why I'm saying the core of the cold will stay to our north & east.  Typically, when we see super freezing temps down to the South Shore, you look to the air coming down from Montana, Colorado & Texas.  Cutbank, Denver are in the 50s with Texas in the 60s.  RIGHT NOW, the next 10 days look generally below normal, but I don't see any pipe busting freezes coming.  Historically, the next 2 weeks are the coldest time of our Winter season.

Clouds are coming over us from the NW and you'll need the heavy weather gear later this evening as the winds shift to the north and increase.  The chill hasn't arrived yet, but it will after dark.

The 7 day has one front coming for tonight, another for Saturday PM with another next week.  What we'll need to pay attention to is that Arctic super cold in Alaska.  With the upper pattern having lobes of the Polar Vortex coming down every 2-3 days, we don't want that Alaska air to start flowing into the lower 48.  Regardless, the Great Lakes snow machine will be in full bloom and the snow cover will grow.  Then again, it's mid January and that's what's supposed to happen.  I do see another thaw coming towards the end of this month.  Stayed tuned!

Frosty Night, Brief Warm Up, Colder Late Week.

For my subscribers, today's podcast focused on the fluctuations in the polar vortex and how it affects our weather.  The upper pattern has definitely shifted to a colder pattern for the eastern states, but there has been a huge change over the source region for the Arctic air.  Gone are the 50-60 degrees below zero temps, replaced by more moderate/seasonal temps. The coldest air has retreated back over Alaska.

So even though we will see several cold fronts this week, none appear likely to bring us any hard freezes south of Lake P.  The NWS forecast graphics support that.

I think Tuesday morning lows will be lower than the NWS forecast since skies are clear & winds will go light.  I like the FOX 8 forecast better.

Obviously, you have to protect pets & plants, but pipes are no problem.

The weak upper low coming out of the southwest has little surface moisture to work with.  As the next dip in the upper air arrives, the cold front should be dry.  But look at the forecast upper pattern.

Normally, that would mean freezing temps for us.  However, the bitter cold over Canada has moderated so much that the coming chill will just be basic January chill

With dew points in the 20s and light winds, many spots will reach freezing in the morning.  Protect plants & pets? Certainly, but no need to drip water.

We are approaching the historically coldest 2 weeks of the year.  I see below normal temps for the next 2 weeks, but the core of the cold stays up over the Great Lakes.  Could that change?  Sure, but right now this is basic winter time Gang.  If you want to see today's podcast, sign up at bobbreck.com for $2/month.  The reason it's not free is that there are no commercials/advertisements to sit through.  Come join us as Zack Fradella is up next, followed by John Snell.  Stay tuned!