Nor'easter To Brush East Coast, Freezing Temps Deep Into Florida

Computer guidance has been very consistent in driving a lobe of the Polar Vortex deep into the Gulf south.   This will pull down another Arctic Blast that will be colder than the last one.  Let's compare yesterday's upper air model to today's forecast for Saturday PM.  On top is yesterday's forecast.

Today's forecast sinks the PV lobe into north Georgia, which will result in the Arctic air plunging down to Miami with near-freezing temps on Sunday morning. With that kind of flow, we look into Canada to see the degree of the Arctic air.

As I pointed out yesterday, the Arctic air over Canada is nowhere near as frigid (40-50 below) as two weeks ago.  Is it cold? (15-25 below) Absolutely! But I'm not sure it will be any colder than this past freeze, especially south of Lake Pontchartrain.  Our local office of the NWS agrees.  Here's their predicted morning lows.

Will full precautions be required on BOTH sides of the Lake?  Absolutely, with Sunday morning being the coldest.  I am not doing a podcast today, but I will tomorrow once we get a better handle on where the core of the cold is going.  To see & hear me, you need to become a subscriber ($2/month) at bobbreck.com.  Some of the snow cover has melted today, but there's still a lot not too far to our north.  Yesterday is on the top.

There is still a small stripe across north Louisiana, which is the ice storm remains.  The Lobe of the Polar Vortex is dipping down into the U.S. with a small disturbance coming down over the northern plains.

That Plains disturbance will phase with the main PV diving down into Georgia for this weekend.  that will spark the development of the Nor'easter off the Carolinas this weekend.

No signs of that yet on the surface map.  In addition, we're not seeing below-zero readings yet.  Still, this weekend we'll need to pay attention to the temperatures as they plunge towards freezing.

Note, we will have 3 nights of below-freezing temps SOUTH of Lake Pontchartrain.  Tomorrow's post & podcast will focus on the "pipe rule" and when to run your water.  If everyone starts dripping water way before necessary, then water pressures will dip too low in case a fire breaks out.  No need to run water tonight.  If we all use common sense, this next frigid spell will not be crippling.  Sign up for the podcast at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!

Cold Slow To Leave, Brief Warm Up, Another Weekend Freeze

Several of you had asked about when will the cold linger and get us off the roller coaster temperature ride?  I pointed out the lack of snow cover was allowing air to moderate quickly after a cold frontal passage.  Not so anymore, as the extensive snow cover nearby to our north is resulting in the cold air to linger.

I find it really neat how the rivers and streams & lakes stand out.  But because of the snow cover, temperatures struggle to warm despite bright sunshine. 

Where there is snow on the ground, temps are in the 30s & 40s.  Where there is no snow, temps warm into the 50s & 60s.  The current upper pattern has the eastern upper trough backing off to the NE and that will allow for a brief warm up for us.

But the bottom graphic is the upper air forecast for Saturday with a big dip digging into the Southeast.  Since the axis is to our east, we'll stay dry.  However, since it's so far to the south, another Arctic Blast is coming for this weekend, perhaps even colder than the last one.

I am encouraged that the new Arctic is not as extreme up in Canada.  A week ago, we had them 40-50 below zero.  Now it's only 20-30 below.  IF the upper trough position becomes reality, we'll be dealing with several mornings of hard freezes for BOTH sidse of Lake P.  I will do a podcast today, expanding on things to watch regarding this next round of freezing weather.  To see the podcast, you must be a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  The cost is $2/month.   John Snell will be my podcast guest next week, so go sign up to see and hear us.  

Those are pretty scary morning lows coming for Sunday & Monday.  I'll get into my thoughts on my podcast coming out after 5 PM today.  Stay tuned!