Next Front Weaker, Some Needed Showers, Phil Saw His Shadow

 After another freezing start (29 at MSY), bright sunshine has allowed us to quickly warm to near 60. Tuesday might top 70 if we have enough sunshine ahead of our next front Tuesday night into Wednesday. We aren't the only ones seeing the shadows today as Punxsutawney Phil  (official Ground Hog) saw his proclaiming 6 more weeks of Winter.  That really doesn't mean a thing for those of us scientists who have studied weather over the centuries.  The north ALWAYS has 6-8 more weeks of Winter while those of us in the South know trees/flowers start blooming once into March.  But the myth continues.  I grabbed these shots while watching The Weather Channel this morning.

It's become a big business day as thousands show up to view Phil & buy all the different stuff vendors offer for sale.  For us, we're just trying to recover from this massive Arctic outbreak that has pushed through the Gulf and into the Caribbean.

Despite bright sunshine, most of Florida, including Miami, will stay in the 50s!

 

We have a pattern change coming as the deep east coast trough has lifted out and a weak upper ridge moves over us bringing a brief warm up.

You can see the surge of warmer air across Texas and up the front range of the Rockies.  Also, they is a surge in low level moisture coming off the Gulf as 50-60 degree dew points head northward.  Our next front will arrive early on Wednesday and that should trigger some showers before our next cool down for Wednesday PM into early on Friday.

Hopefully, these warmer temps will quickly melt the snow cover that is still visible on satellite views.

Note, the South Shore stays above freezing all week.  I have moved my plants out of my shed and uncovered those in the ground.  The ones I didn't protect are toast and I'll pull them out once we warm up later this month.  Remember, I will have my next podcast tomorrow.

It's an enjoyable 35 minutes learning about the REAL John Snell, including 

getting to know his wife Anita.  However, you must subscribe ($2/month) at bobbreck.com to hear & see John's story.  We'll focus more on Hurricanes once we reach April, but during the cold months I'm interviewing some of your favorite Ch. 8 personalities.  There are no ads and for $2/month, it's a no brainer.  Come join us.  Stay tuned and HAPPY GROUND HOG's Day!

It's The Snow Cover Stupid, One More Freezing Night

To paraphrase a line from James Carville (it's the economy, stupid), if you're wondering why we are so cold and have stayed so cold, blame it on recent nearby snow cover from the ice storm 8 days ago.  In December and early January, the South had no snow cover, and the Arctic airmasses were allowed to modify before reaching us.  But look at these snow cover maps now. The recent East Coast snowstorm dumped 1-2 feet on the Carolinas.  It's the snow cover to our north that lingers that's more important for us.

With clear skies and light winds overnight, expect another hard freeze on the North Shore & a light freeze south of Lake P.  Here's the NWS forecast lows.

The FOX 8 numbers are lower than the NWS and I will drip/run my faucets again tonight out of an abundance of caution.  No need to start dripping until you go to sleep on either side of the Lake.  Here was my bird bath this morning.

It was frozen solid as MSY reported their low as 26.  My thinking is Monday will be 28-30, but that is too close to the Pipe Rule for me not to run the water.  Why take a chance?  The warming pattern will begin Monday PM and last through Tuesday before another, weaker cold front moves through.  It all starts over the Pacific, where an offshore upper trough has a ridge over the West with a trough over the East. An Atmospheric River (AR) is heading for the Pacific NW. Hopefully, that will beat down the western ridge and flatten the eastern trough.

The lobe of the Polar Vortex (PV) has moved off the East Coast, resulting in a more relaxed upper flow for us. That should allow for a 2-day warm-up.

Temperatures on the back side of the surface high have soared to 60+ and that's coming our way.  Since dew points remain in the teens, temps will crash once the sun goes down.

Only Monday morning lows will create some freeze issues, as the rest of the week will stay above 32. Finally, my next podcast is coming up on Tuesday with John Snell.  If you want to know more about John's life, his sensational wildlife photography, and his new bride, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Cost is only $2/month, and during hurricane season, it becomes priceless!  FYI, Mandy in Monroe finally has her power back on after one week. Another reason a full house generator from Lightning Services is not just for hurricane season. Stay tuned!