Strong Front Brings Severe Threat Up North, Little Impacts Here, Yesterday's Ring Day

 Let's begin with some exciting news first since our weather remains boring. As you know, I am a commitment guy and have found a new partner, Valerie Adams, at Copeland Tower.  Yesterday she received my commitment of an engagement ring with our wedding date set for December 4th on a cruise down to Belize. Note, we are doing that AFTER Hurricane season is over!  If you see us around town, don't be afraid to come up and congratulate her.

OK, our weather has been delightfully boring.  All the warm air has pollen everywhere and this has been my worst allergy season ever.  There is some hope for change, but not much and here's why.  I've drawn in the west to east flow across the county with the flatten, dry upper ridge over the south.

This current set up will not allow fronts near us.  However, a weak upper disturbance coming across southern Canada will sharpen the trough over the eastern states allowing for a weak front to reach us.  don't get too excited as the cooling will be minimal but the drier air should make for cooler nights.

The air north of this front is still winter-like, but it's not coming here. Note the 90+ from Amarillo to St. Louis.  With such temperature contrasts, SPC believes there is a risk for severe storms later this evening.

They have a level 3 risk over a large area today, but weaken that to zero for Friday.  For us and much of the SE, it's the lack of rain.

Computer models are hinting there could be better rain chances coming next week for us, but when in drought, leave it out.  The other issue is dense fog in the morning as a dense fog advisory is in effect.

A large patch of sea fog remains over the NE Gulf and will spread along the entire Gulf coast later tonight.

I'm not going to get too excited about next week's rain chances just yet since I don't see any fronts coming.  Perhaps Saturday's front will stall and back over us producing some much needed rainfall?  Let's hope so.  Stay tuned and hang in there with those allergies!

Quiet Week Coming, Warm & Dry Here, Pattern Flip Coming

March is the transition month when the building Spring warmth clashes with the retreating Winter cold, often resulting in huge & severe weather outbreaks.  We are running slightly above normal regarding severe weather reports for this year, but this week looks rather quiet.  It's because the huge upper ridge over the West has flattened, leaving mainly a WNW flow across the country.  Without any major dips in the jet stream, there isn't a trigger to produce storms.  That shows up in the WPC's 7-day rain total forecast.

You can see how the upper ridge has flattened and retreated off of California, allowing cooler air to knock down the summer-like heat of this past weekend.  Look at the 24-hour temperature changes.

St. Louis was 90+ on Saturday, mid 70s yesterday, but barely 50 today.  It's hard to find the front on the surface map as there are few clouds with it.

You can see the lower dew points (drier air) just north of us, and we could see some of that for tomorrow and Wednesday.  

You can tell just by looking at the clouds around us that these are not rain-producing clouds. Our rain chances will stay slim to none for the rest of this week.

While we have been dry, perhaps you've seen the terrible rains that have flooded some of Hawaii?

The main rains have shifted farther to the south, with Honolulu seeing some sunshine.  Heavy rains combined with mountainous terrain leads to deadly flooding, much like what happened in the Carolinas several years ago.  Put them on your prayer line Gang.  Stay tuned!