Correction, Podcast Tonight, Melissa Struggling With Wind Shear

 For those of you who are subscribers, I will do a podcast this evening as my hip replacement surgery is at 7 AM Thursday and, in case something where to go wrong, I wanted to express my gratitude for your past & present support.  I am a very spiritual man and truly believe what has happened to me during the past 7 months is for a better purpose.  He's not done with my life yet, so if you're so inclined, sign up at bobbreck.com and watch the little fella tonight.  Back to the Tropics...

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to struggle with westerly wind shear that will limit development in the short term.  However, in another 2 days, the wind shear decreases and NHC is expecting Melissa to explode into a major Hurricane.  Look at the intense T-Storms off on her right side.

Her forward motion has slowed down and she will remain over the warm ocean waters of the Caribbean for several days, hence the increase in intensity.  Sooner or later, she will impact some land area.  Right now, NHC believes to current WSW motion will turn to the north.  For us?

We're protected by strong westerly winds over the Gulf and that's why the sang turn out the lights on Oct. 14th.  That east coast trough will bring down some wonderful weather this week.

I may be able to post Thursday afternoon, IF the drugs wear off.  If not, my next post will be on Friday as we will have a major hurricane to follow.  Thankfully, Melissa will not be our problem.  Stay tuned and thanks for all your prayers.  

No Podcast, Melissa Forms, Another Front Coming

 I was hoping to do a podcast this week before my Thursday hip replacement.  However, in an effort to get my house ready for sale, I am overwhelmed by all one must do to downsize.  It's a task that is challenging for a person who's 78 with a bad hip.  If I'm not too over drugged on Friday, I'll try to do a podcast as to why most storms have turned to the north away from the United States.  Tropical Storm Melissa will likely follow a similar fate as the storms before her.

On the satellite views, there is definitely a low level circulation.  However, the western side is exposed with unorganized T-storms clusters to her east.  NHC blames that on upper wind shear from the west that should limit development for the next couple of day.

Over time, they drift Melissa to the NW and gradually make her a hurricane.  But she can't get into the Gulf due to the fast westerly upper winds that will turn her to the east.  Spaghetti plots are all over the place so don't be surprised if Melissa keeps going farther to the west.  The upper trough over the eastern states is expected to deepen into next week blocking any threats to the northern Gulf.

With the upper flow from the NW, look for more fronts coming with each one a little colder than the last.

Notice the much lower dew points/drier air behind this next front.  A few showers have developed ahead of it.

There are gaps between showers along the front and as the sun sets, we should see the weakening of these storms as they near us after dark.

The drier air behind this next front will allow morning lows to drop into the 40s & 50s, but highs should still top 80.  The front coming for Halloween week will bring back the sweaters and jackets.  I will try to post tomorrow ahead of Thursday's surgery.  Very thankful to all my friends standing by me as caregivers during a very difficult time in my life.   Stay tuned!