Remembering Last Costume, Tornado Watch Till 7 PM, Models Spot On Again.

Throughout my 46 year on-air career, I prided myself about educating my viewers regarding my passion about the weather.  It was one thing to know the WHAT of the forecast, but I also wanted you to know the WHY.  I understood most just want the forecast, and to educate you about meteorology, I would also have to be entertaining.  I wore a lot of costumes on-air (Full length Fur Coat, Big Pumpkin, German Lederhosen etc) but the last one in 2016 was my favorite.  Do you remember?  Can you guess who I was?

The late Nancy Parker was Cleopatra, John Snell looked like a Bourbon Street barker? and the Breckster?   C'mon, don't you recall the late George Carlin routine, yo, your hippy dippy weatherman?  Less than a month later, I retired never to costume again.  It was fun in my youth!   Once again BRAVO to the NWS/NOAA computer models for correctly predicting dangerous wind gusts by 11 AM.

They were spot on and, as expected, we are now under a Tornado Watch until 7 PM.   The first band of showers are nearing us with the main line plowing through between 4-7 PM.

We knew yesterday that the set up for severe storms would develop, but to see the accuracy of the hourly wind speeds is truly remarkable.  It was why Jefferson cancelled all parades and Orleans restricted their parades.  Thank goodness the models were right as many folks thought officials overreacted.  Not so, kudos to those public officials for having the courage to make the right call.

 

The strong upper disturbance is on track and will lift to our north by later tonight.  As the upper winds split apart (diffluence) over us, it will increase the low level uplift (orange circle) creating the potential for severe storms.  It's pay attention time through 3-8 PM.

Temperatures are slightly cooler behind this front, but notice how much drier (lower dew points) across Texas.  We have seen winds constant 20-35 MPH with MSY having gusts to 52 !!!

Finish enjoying Mardi Gras, but understand your FOX 8 Weather App may start alerting you to warnings after 4 PM.  For now, your hippy, dippy Weatherman says stay tuned!

Severe Weather Outbreak Will Limit, Not Cancel Mardi Gras

9 years ago (March 3, 2016) I began my first day of "retirement" flying down to Puerto Vallarta to party with our friends Mark & Ivan.  Back then, it would be unheard of to cancel any parades 1-2 days ahead of time.  Well, we have all witnessed the tremendous increase in technology that now allows computer graphics to give us hour by hour maps for rainfall, winds, & even snow (remember January?!!) days in advance.  Are they always correct?  No, but more often than not they are.  That is why Jefferson (a way more exposed parade route ) cancelled all parades and Orleans has limited the scope of Zulu & Rex.  So what is causing all these precautions?  Let's begin with the set up.  There is a powerful upper disturbance centered over Utah this afternoon as depicted on Water Vapor.

A surface dry line (Brown dashes) has developed over OK/TX with a rich low level flow of Gulf moisture surging northward.  SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has highlighted an area where they expect storms to fire this evening.

The bottom graphic shifts that area eastward and expands it along the MS/AL coasts for Tuesday.  Clearly, the greatest threat/risk is centered to our north, but not by much. All of the North Shore is under a level 3 (Enhanced) risk.

The local NWS office has some easy to understand graphics on their web page.  Based on what I'm seeing, the curtailment of parades is wise & a matter of public safety.  Gusts to 50+ would make float riding & throwing difficult, if not dangerous.

With such strong SSE winds, NWS has issued a coastal flood advisory for high water outside the flood protection/reduction levees.  Yeah, it stinks, but Tuesday is a pay attention day.

IF we see any sunshine, temps could jump into the lower 80s.  Note the surge in dew points across Texas from Houston/Austin southward.  That is the fuel that could be ignited by the approaching upper disturbance.

While the South Shore saw a lot of sunshine, the North Shore stayed mostly cloudy.  

So we will see some strong storms tomorrow afternoon & evening.  Mardi Gras will be limited, but it will NOT be cancelled.  We will be cooler & drier for Wednesday & Thursday with another front approaching late Saturday.  Stay safe & stay tuned! Happy Mardi Gras Gang!!!