Arthur Is Gone, Boundary left Behind, Heat Becomes An Issue

 NHC has given up on Arthur's remains becoming organized off the Carolinas reducing redevelopment chances to near zero.  However, this system has left behind a boundary from Texas to the Georgia where more heavy tropical downpours are falling.  Fortunately, the boundary is farther to the north and not over the rain drenched Guld coastal locations.

I think it's a stretch to call it a cold frontal boundary as it's hard to find cooler air behind it.

 

There are lower dew points (drier air) well north of the "front", but look at those high dewpoints (75+) over the south.  Geez, Jackson is reporting their dew point at 81 !!!  No wonder the T-Storms are so heavy with all that moisture/fuel to work with.

We are seeing far fewer storms around today since the boundary moved northward.

What I don't want to see for Saturday is the boundary to sag back down farther to the south over areas where most rivers are in Flood.

That's the thinking of FOX 8 as they increased rain chances for Saturday before we dry out heading into next week.  Finally, the MJO (Madden/Julian Oscillation) is going into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase over us.  That should mean the Atlantic Basin will be quiet the rest of June. We already know the MDR is dead because of the Saharan Dust.

Now that Arthur is gone, the Gulf and Caribbean are clear.  But what is really stunning is the lack of Tropical Activity Worldwide.  The EPAC is dead.

Even in the most active basin (Western Pacific), there is only one weak Tropical Storm (Mekkhaka).  Since Arthur  created a week of anxiety with one high anxiety morning (Thursday), we all need time to decompress.  Let's use this weekend to relax and "enjoy" our typical summer heat that will only get worse as we head towards August.  Everyone playing/working outdoors needs to use common sense.  Hats, sunscreen & stay hydrated Gang. Stay tuned!

Arthur Gone? Not Really, New Podcast This Afternoon

Those of you who are subscribers to my podcast heard me DOWNPLAY our overnight rain threat based on satellite & radar loops and the latest data from the WPC's (Weather Prediction Center) rainfall prediction graphic.  I mentioned the lightning down over the Gulf made me a little nervous, but I felt the WSW upper shear would take those storms south of our coast.  Well, I was wrong as those storms headed straight into SE LA with a band of 7-10" totals, causing widespread street flooding before daybreak.  So this afternoon's podcast will go into explaining WHY that happened.  Let's begin with the WPC's rainfall prediction (on top) from yesterday PM, followed by the reality of what actually fell(bottom view).

Clearly, the forecast rain map proved to be in error.  The reds & pink on the bottom graphic depict 6-10" totals with the heavier amounts staying just west of Orleans Parish.  So what changed from when I taped by podcast at 5 PM yesterday? Go rewatch yesterday's podcast, where I mentioned being nervous about the storms in the central Gulf.  I grabbed these radar views and follow the track of the lightning from these storms.  The time clock is at the bottom.

I obviously didn't expect those storms to come right over us, but all the lightning made me nervous that something was there.  So why did these storms come NNE instead of going ENE and stay mainly offshore?  This is just my guess, but look at the Water Vapor view from yesterday PM.

Did the upper lows moving across the Great Lakes dig a little deeper to the south, pulling up those Gulf storms towards the upper trough?  Perhaps, and that's what this afternoon's podcast will be about.  To see it, you must be a subscriber.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  I believe every weather event is a learning experience, and when I'm wrong, I want to know why.  My podcasts explain the WHAT & WHY and not just show you the forecast.  As we all saw, the rain potential graphic was flip-flopping with every model run.  But WHY?  Go sign up and learn about WHY the South Shore received the heaviest rains overnight.

Currently, I see several swirls on the visible view, the left one being the "DNA" from Arthur.   NHC believes there is a slim chance he could redevelop off the Carolinas this weekend.

Heavy tropical downpours will move across LA/MS/AL/GA this afternoon as there is a split in the upper flow enhancing lift.

We are not done with the rain today, especially north & east of NOLA.

The new WPC's rainfall prediction really focuses in on the North Shore & MS/AL/FL coasts.

 

The orange indicates another 4-6+" of rain.  Pay attention Gang.  Podcast coming up for subscribers shortly.  Stay tuned!