NHC Says No, Eastern Heat Wave, Daily Storms Return

 One thing that is clear in this El Nino Hurricane Season is atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic Basin are likely to remain hostile.  Whether it's the strong upper westerly wind shear, or the Saharan Dust layer coming off of Africa, or all the "TUTT" Lows...for a tropical storm and/or hurricane to get going and remain strong, it will be difficult without a favorable (rising air) MJO.  T.S. Arthur formed during a favorable time of the MJO.   That is not likely for awhile.  Look at the conditions over the Tropics today. The dust has shut down the MDR while the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) Lows are everywhere.

It's no wonder NHC only gives a 10% chance for development off the Carolina coast later this week.  Conditions are not there for something to develop.  So the big news for the eastern states is the building heat wave this week.

We are underneath the Heat Dome today and it has capped any daytime heating storms from forming.  Watch what the GFS model does with this Dome beginning with Today on top followed by Wednesday & Friday & then Sunday.

As you can see, the high drifts northward & eastward through Friday.  As the center of it pulls away, we'll see an increase in low level moisture rotate back over us from Florida.  Without the upper high capping daytime heating, expect daily spotty storms to bubble up much like typical summertime.  The bottom view on Sunday has the upper high gone from the East.  But look at where the upper high shifts by mid July.

 

The heat dome reforms over the western states where this week they are under an upper trough and very chilly temperatures.

It was even cold enough for snow at higher elevations!  That will be quite a flip temperature wise if the GFS model is correct.  For us in the short term, we're staying hot but should see increasing rain chances as the upper high drifts away from us.

It's a rare summer day when our state (and those around us) have no rain on radar.

Without any fronts coming this week, any relief from the heat will have to come from daytime heating storms.   Use common sense if working or exercising outdoors for the next 2-3 months!  October seems so far away!

Just remember, a typical summer day has highs 92-96 with heat index up to 105-110.  Can you imagine living in the South BEFORE air conditioning?  Hardy people indeed!  My podcast tomorrow will be about my vacation trip to the Biltmore Estate in Asheville last week.  250 rooms, 65 bathrooms all under 175,000 square feet.  To see and watch how the Rich & Famous lived, sign up at bobbreck.com.  IF anything forms off the East Coast, I'll have another podcast Wednesday or Thursday.  Stay tuned!

 

 

Grief Support Coffee, Eastern Heat Wave, Tropics remain Dead

For the past 7 years I have been part of a grief support group at St. Catherine's in Metairie.  I've learned a lot from Patricia Lawson & Becky Steppe (our group leaders) and so, with so many widows & widowers living here at Copeland Tower, I've decided to start a new grief support coffee on the first Monday of each month.  You don't have to be a resident of Copeland Tower to attend, but I would need you to register with me at bobbreck@cox.net.

Our next coffee will be Monday, July 6th at 10 AM.  If you have lost a loved one and are struggling on your grief journey, come listen to others who walk in our shoes.  There is no cost to attend.  Just contact me.

As promised, my next podcast will be about my vacation to the Biltmore Estate in Asheville.  It might also deal with some tropical activity as NHC continues to highlight an area off the Carolinas.

With the MJO in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase,  I don't see anything happening including in the Gulf or Caribbean where dry air and upper lows remain in charge.

NWS is expecting the upper high to drift northward this coming week with some tropical moisture rotating in towards us from the east by midweek.  No model develops any surface low, just some tropical moisture that will allow for increasing rain chances here. For Monday, it should be another day of below normal rain chances.

Those 100+ temps in Texas will spread over the eastern states, and coupled with high 70+ dew points, it will feel extremely uncomfortable for the eastern 2/3rd of the nation.

There were a few brief showers with the sea breeze front, but for most it's been just hot & dry.

The increase in rain chances by Wednesday should help make it less hot.  Finally,

My next podcast will deal with the current lack of tropical activity plus some spectacular pictures of the Biltmore resort.  To sign up to watch, go to bobbreck.com.  As we get closer to the heart of hurricane season, my podcast expands on my Face Book post giving you my experienced opinion that often is different than the NHC & NWS discussions.  Come join us.  Stay tuned!