Daily Rain Chances Make 7 Day Useless, Easter Sunday looks Wet.

Back when I was on-air, I often mentioned that once we got into May, the 7-day forecast became almost useless for planning your outdoor activities since 1) we knew each day would be warm to hot, and 2) it would rain somewhere across our viewing area due to daytime heating pop-up storms.  We're still in March, and NWS indicates the upper air pattern shift will give us daily rain chances without mentioning why or which day has a better chance.  They just give each day equal chances, and the FOX 8 seven-day forecast follows their guidance.

The higher rain chances Easter weekend will be due to an approaching cold front.  What I try to do is look for reasons why our rain chances have returned.  I do it by showing you satellite features and not just showing what the models say.  Saturday's cold front stalled off our coast and moved back northward during the morning hours. We're back in the muggies, and a weak upper disturbance is passing well to our north.

But after weeks of dry weather, what has changed?  The persistent West Coast ridge and East Coast upper trough gave us a mainly dry upper WNW flow.  Now we're going back to a West Coast trough, allowing our upper flow to turn more to the SW.

Embedded in that flow are weak disturbances that are difficult to forecast.  In addition, the moisture boundary that formed over us today becomes a forecast challenge all week.  Models say it stays in place, but what if it shifts just a little bit to our east tomorrow as the weak upper disturbance passes to our north?  Most of Louisiana is enjoying bright sunshine today.

 If I were still on-air for tomorrow, I would downplay the rain chances with higher chances Tuesday & Wednesday as the next weak upper disturbance comes from the West coast.  There are no fronts around to trigger more activity.

One thing is for sure: temperatures will stay warm to hot depending on how much sunshine we get each day.  WPC's rainfall outlook has the heaviest rains far to our north, but they give us 2-3" during the next 7 days.  It's needed and welcomed by our lawns and gardens.

So will the rain chances be equal each day?  Watch your favorite weathercaster and see if they follow the NWS guidance, or maybe give you a reason why it might be different.  Bottom line, go find your umbrellas since it hasn't rained in many weeks.  Stay tuned!

One Day Cold Front, Rain Next Week? Thank You Great Comments

 As we get further into Spring, the cold fronts get weaker and weaker as the sun angle gets higher and the length of daylight gets longer. Tomorrow's front will have a brief kick to it bringing some cooler and drier air, but it won't last beyond Sunday PM.  On the weather map it looks pretty impressive with a significant temperature cooldown behind it.

For us, the cooling will only be 5-10 degrees, but our 60+ dew points should drop into the 30s & 40s making the air feel great!  Unfortunately, there will be little, if any, rain with this front.  Why?  Check out the flow on the water vapor.

Note all the dry air above us even though we are moist at the surface.  Models are hinting that the upper ridge will continue to shift to the East coast as a deep trough develops over the Western states.  As the trough comes eastward, our rain chances should finally increase for next week.

Will rain chances be 40% every day next week?  Probably not, but what the extended tells us is they won't be zero.  We'll be able to zone in on which days have higher chances the closer we get into next week.   Finally,

Your comments regarding my engagement to Valerie Adams truly touched my heart.  She has brought Bob back to the Bob you know...full of energy & life.  I'm humbled by all your support and thrilled to be with you to help Weather any Storms we might have this Hurricane Season.  You're happy to join us on our wedding cruise in December down to Belize AFTER Hurricane Season is over!!!  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!