Jerry Forms In Atlantic, Karen Coming To Southern Gulf? Weak Front Here

This season's 10th named storm has formed out in the MDR of the Tropical Atlantic.  Like the previous storms this summer, Tropical Storm Jerry is predicted to make the turn to the north way before affecting the U.S.  However, he could brush close to the Virgin Islands before making the turn to the north on Saturday.  We begin with the wide satellite view with the circles indicating areas to watch.

At the moment, Jerry is not a large storm with a small burst of storms (red) around his center.  NHC is forecasting him to become a Category one hurricane for this weekend.

Tropical Storm Watches (Yellow colors) are up for the northernmost Islands, but it appears Jerry's main impacts will remain out to sea.  Closer to home, we have a mid-level circulation down over the Yucatan.

Even if something does develop later this week, it will remain over the southern Gulf.  A more interesting system is forecasted to develop along the Eastern seaboard.

Many models develop this system into a winter-like nor'easter for this weekend.  On top is the Euro for Sunday, followed by the GFS & AI for Monday.

As you can see, IF this storm develops, its rotation will bring us some drier and slightly cooler air for us this weekend. The upper pattern is slowly shifting, allowing cooler air to filter down from the north.

Most of the northern Plains and Great Lakes are in the 50s & 60s.

We will have a slight chance for showers ahead of the front on Wednesday.

It was another day of 90+ as we await the cooler weather behind the front.

Since it is still early October, this front will bring feel-good air and not sweaters and jackets.  A final note, The Jim Cantore Podcast is tomorrow.

If you want to see Jim talk about his career from beginning to end, you'll need to subscribe to my podcast at bobbreck.com.  It's only $2/month and I believe well worth it.  Future guests will be Bruce Katz, John Snell, Margaret Dubuisson, Zack Fradella & more.  Give it a try.  Stay tuned!

Call Is made To Fat Lady, Tropics Remain Active, Cold Front Coming

Despite the fact we could see another two named storms this week, I placed a call into the agent who represents the "Fat Lady" to find out her availability for after Oct. 20th. She's currently is in southern France.   From what I'm seeing from the models, we have no threats coming into the northern Gulf during the next 10-14 days. Hence, I'd like her to sing "turn out the lights" later this month.   However, we are not done with tropical weather.

Way out in the Atlantic is Invest 95 L which should become Tropical Storm Jerry later this week.  All models turn this storm out to sea just like many of the previous systems this year.  Closer to home, NHC has highlighted a system in the NW Caribbean while I circled an area near the Bahamas.

Neither of these disturbances are expected to bother Louisiana.  The low along our coast over this weekend has lifted to our north.

As it moved inland over night, it triggered some severe weather across the North shore with spots of heavy rainfall south.  My two day total was 2.30".  Now, it appears a weak cold front will stagger through by Thursday.

It won't require sweaters or jackets, but it's a sign of things to come.

North Shore lows might even get into the 50s later this week!  Finally...

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is coming to the Bob Breck Podcast on Wednesday.   Jim talks about some of the more memorable storms he's covered and about his life.  But you can't see or hear Jim's story unless you subscribe to my new podcast at bobbreck.com.  It'll cost you $2/month, but it's well worth it even IF we don't have any hurricane threats this year..  Come join the fun!  Stay tuned!