AI Model Says NW Gulf System, Satellite Views Say No Way

Colorado State University updated their 2026 Hurricane outlook yesterday and it wasn't surprising to see them LOWER/DECREASE their numbers based on the getting stronger El Nino out in the Pacific.  Remember I have posted on this blog and in my podcast I felt the number of named storm might be lower than 10, maybe more like 8.  Here's the latest from CSU that FOX Weather had on this morning.

You shouldn't read too much into these outlooks since they cannot predict with any skill the landfall location of any storms that develop.   But just having fewer storms means the chances of getting hit decreases.  We'll see, but as always we'll pay attention until those October cold fronts start coming.  Back to the Tropics.

NHC still gives a 20% chance for development over the western Gulf later this week.  Wave heights tell us there is something churning up the waters, but satellite views confirm NOTHING is developing. the visible view has the low level center already moving westward & inland over Mexico with a weak surge of tropical moisture into south Texas.

The color IR has ZERO T-Storm with the center and very little out over the Gulf.  So why is NHC still hanging on to a 20% chance for development over the NW Gulf?  It's because the AI model forecasts that.

Since the AI model was the most accurate last hurricane season, NHC is placing some value in it in case it is correct.  Right now, I see the tropical moisture moving into Mexico and not streaming towards the northern Gulf.  Our local NWS is sticking to the heavy rain potential for early next week.

The thinking is the tropical moisture would meet moisture moving southward with a cold front.

My take is the cold frontal boundary will stall well north of Louisiana keeping the heaviest rain threat away.  Here's why.  The current Water Vapor view has a northerly flow over the Gulf while the wide U.S. view finds mainly a zonal (west to east) flow over much of the country.

 

How can a front get near us with no dip in the jet stream?  Maybe an East Coast trough develops later next week, but I'm not seeing that today.  In the short term, Sunday should be like Saturday, hot & humid with a spotty shower.

With dew points well above 70, it doesn't take much to bubble up some storms.

The 7 day forecast indicates we'll turn very wet, but my discussion above should point out the uncertainties in that forecast.

IF the AI model proves to be valid and a disturbance tries to form over the NW Gulf, I'll do a daily podcast update expanding on my daily FB post.  To hear & see it, you'll need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

For only $2/month, you'll find information that only the little fella can give you through 5 decades of experience.  Come join us.  Stay tuned!

NHC Watching Western Gulf, Wild Card Approaching Cold Front, Heavy Rain Next Week

The Tropical Wave moving over the Bay of Campeche has taken on a compact look down over the southern Gulf.  NHC has expanded northward an area were they believe there is a slight chance (20%) for development early next week.  Models are NOT bullish on this and they take the current cluster of storms straight into Mexico.

What will prove to be the complicating factor whether we see any tropical development is a slow moving cold front that is likely to stall well to our north.

So the main forecast question becomes...where will the frontal boundary set up along with the band of heavy rainfall?  Zack used these graphics this morning.

I haven't seen any model try to form a Tropical (warm core) low along the western part of the front, but I feel NHC just wants folks to pay attention to the weather late this weekend into next week in case a heavy rain event sets up. Here's the WPC's thinking for our Flood Risk next Monday and Tuesday.

As you can see, the greater threat/danger is north of Lake Pontchartrain.  Their 7-day rainfall forecast paints a broad area of 4-7"+ amounts from Texas to Georgia.  Will it happen that way?  Right now, computer guidance is saying we need to PAY ATTENTION.

So what could happen to change this scenario?  1) The tropical moisture could just move into Mexico and not become involved with the frontal boundary, or 2) the front stalls well to our north (northern LA/southern AR), keeping the heavy rain bands farther from us.  RIGHT N OW, it's just time to watch and nothing to get too nervous about.  IF it looks to become more serious, I will do daily podcasts on it beginning on Monday.  You have to sign up ($2/month) to be able to hear & see my podcasts.  Go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Here's the wide view set up for the next two days.

On the satellite view, there is a deep upper low over Canada with another lobe (yellow dashed lines) of energy circulating towards the northern Plains.  The first front has already stalled over Arkansas, awaiting another push from the front diving down over the Dakotas.

The real super heat is confined to along the East coast, but look at all the 70+ dew points that cover the south.  Even if we get no tropical moisture feeding into the frontal boundary next week, there is already abundant low-level moisture present for heavy rainfall.

 

Currently, the strong T-Storms are well north, while we do see the sea breeze front triggering several downpours around us.

So this weekend our weather will be basic summertime...hot & humid with spotty daytime heating storms.  Next week, rain chances will go up.

Finally, here are my feelings/opinions regarding Gulf development.

There is an upper high over the Rio Grande, creating a flow that takes the tropical moisture into Mexico and NOT northward towards Texas or Louisiana.  In addition, look at all the dry air that makes for a "Hostile Environment" for any development.  NHC doesn't even have any plans for Recon aircraft on Saturday.  Our concerns for next week should focus on how far south the frontal boundary makes it.  There will be significant flooding over a wide area, but I'm not convinced yet it will include areas south of Lake P.  The latest drought monitor shows south LA/MS is no longer in drought, and we don't need more rain.

Go out and enjoy a typical summer weekend here, BUT, make sure you pay attention to the forecast for next week.  Stay tuned!