Boris & Christina Are Named, No Signs of Gulf Development, Heat Index Hype

In an El Nino year, the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) basin is supposed to be more active with less activity in the Atlantic.  That is holding true to form as NHC upgraded 2 systems to Tropical Storms.  Neither is expected to become a hurricane, but both will bring a heavy rain threat to the western Mexican coast.

NHC track forecast brings Christina inland and weakens her.  However, what we need to watch is if any tropical energy from that system reaches the southern Gulf for this weekend. I've drawn in the motion of the tropical moisture plumes.

Two things to note on our water vapor view.  1) The low over the Caribbean south of Jamaica is an upper Low and  2)There is an upper high over the southern Gulf.  Upper lows make for hostile environments for tropical formation, while upper highs mean less wind shear and encourage development.  None of the main models are showing anything forming from Christina this weekend over the southern Gulf, and NHC doesn't seem the least concerned.

The clusters of T-Storms over the Central Caribbean are the result of a tropical wave interacting with the upper low.  Development is not expected.  So we shift back to our local set up.

 

Without any fronts around, our showers will come from daytime heating with typical summer coverage of 30-40%.  With such high dew points, weathercasters are hyping the Heat Index/Feels Like temps.  I thought FOX 8's Amber Wheeler put it into perspective on her noon broadcast. Sure the Heat Index will top 100 each day, but as Amber stated, that is NORMAL so get use to it.  Only when it reaches 110+ do we really need to issue a First Alert so folks can be reminded of the heat/dehydration dangers.  Then Amber had this graphic.

Wow! We just completed a cool/below normal May and now compare our temps to last year.  We already had 15 days of 90+ temps.  This year so far just one.  That has resulted in cooler water temps, especially over the northern Gulf. Sure surface water temps have reached 80+.

But the deeper water oceanic heat content over the Gulf is below average.  That translates into less fuel for any tropical system.  Love to see that continue.

The rest of this week will be basic summertime.  Perhaps over the weekend we might see an increase in shower chances as moisture streams up from the Pacific systems.  This week's podcast will focus on early June storms and why they form in our part of the World.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up for my next Podcast on Wednesday.  Stay tuned!

Stop It Already! No Gulf Storm In Sight, Drier, Hotter Week Coming

Back in the 70s, comedian Bob Newhart played a psychologist on his Bob Newhart Show.  I remember one program where one of his patients had a problem/fear of being buried alive.  He tried to reason with her, but finally yelled "Stop it!, Just Stop It!"  It's how I feel each day after reading bloggers posting about the possibility of a Gulf storm beyond 7-10 days.  Just stop it!!!

Here's just one example of such hype.  Could it happen?  Sure, we're in hurricane season and anything can & will develop during the next 5 months.  But I'd rather deal with what we know than what we don't know.  Here's the Tropics TODAY.

All the action is in the Pacific where Amanda was downgraded to a Depression while T.D. # 2 forms just south of the Mexican coast.  It is predicted to become Boris while another area should become Christina according to computer models.  But what about a storm in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf?  Not happening this week if you look at the upper steering and all the dry air aloft.

There is an upper high over the Gulf, and that would favor tropical development.  However, the tropical plume from earlier this week has lifted inland, leaving behind no surface disturbance.  There is a well-defined upper low south of Cuba, but that makes for a hostile environment for development. There has been some chatter of a possible spin-up coming off the CAG, but I see no signs of that yet.

In fact, the WPC's 7 day rainfall totals have no signs of any tropical moisture surging into the Gulf.  So to the herd on social media who want to be the first to say "I told you so."...just STOP IT!  Don't try to make us more anxious/cry wolf until we need to get concerned.  Locally, this week we will dry out some as all the upper energy lifts northward over the Plains.

The good feel air has retreated to the NE leaving much of the nation hot & humid.  70+ dew points reach all the way to Iowa! There are a few showers around, but way less than on Saturday.

Rain coverage is about 20-30%, which is slightly below normal for a typical summer afternoon.

We'll flirt with 90 everyday this week, which is where we're supposed to be in early June.  This week should be the "rubber stamp" forecast of hot & humid with a few spotty PM Storms.  If your friends show you a Facebook post telling about a coming storm.  Just tell them to STOP IT!!!  Stay tuned!