Tropical Activity Next Week? Will Our Rains Ever End?

 The official start to our Hurricane Season is June 1st, but we often see activity begin in late May.  In fact, looking at the past decade plus, we see many seasons with named storms in April & May.  Climatologically, the average date of the first named storm is June 20th.  I found this old graphic that doesn't include 2024-25.  In 2024, Alberto was named on June 19th while in 2025 Andrea was named on June 23rd.

Typically, a disturbance develops in the western Caribbean or Southeastern Gulf around what is described as the Central American Gyre (CAG).

Today's cloud loop hints at a weak swirl down south of Belize.  Several internet posts are saying there could be development there sometime during the next 7-10 days.  Duh!  That should come as no surprise, but with the current set up, IF anything does form, it should be steered into central or south Florida where they really need rain.  The question for us is...When will these rains end?  The end is not far away as satellite & radar indicate right now.

Clearly, the bulk of the rains are north & east with much of Louisiana seeing clouds move from the NE to SW.  Only over us are clouds still streaming in off the Gulf. I'm encouraged by the most recent update from the National Weather Service (NWS).

Perhaps they are thinking some of the drier air in the upper levels over the western Gulf will come our way lowering our rain chances.  That's what I'm thinking so Captain Hylton and I will try fishing Tuesday PM and on Wednesday.  Rain chances will depend where these upper disturbances move.

The main jet stream has retreated to the north leaving behind these weak, hard to forecast lows.  No fronts are around and the only reason we're not hot yet is the cloud cover & rain.  Look how warm it is up north.

It's hotter in North Dakota than here!  The dew points show where the stalled frontal boundary is located.  St. Louis is in the dry air (49) while not far to the east Louisville (69) feels just like us.  Hopefully this rainy pattern has started to break down, but the FOX 8 extended in the short term stays wet.

Just keep up with the radar on your FOX 8 Weather App in case more heavy rain develops.  I'm going fishin' !  My next podcast will be about Albuquerque & Santa Fe.  To see it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  A smart investment since there could be some early season tropical activity.  Stay tuned!

Goodbye Santa Fe, Stalled Upper Pattern Keeps Us Wet

 After 7 days of glorious sunshine, I have returned to what has been an ugly pattern of gloom & often wet locally.  Fortunately, it's been mostly nuisance rain with little flood issues, but the NWS is keeping us in a Flood Watch Through Monday night.  Here's why.

The upper low remains over Texas with a split in the flow creating some heavy storms down over the Gulf.  What we don't want to see is those heavy storms coming our way and I don't see that happening.  In fact, storms have been weakening this afternoon as they mover inland over SE LA/MS giving us mostly light rain.

As you can see, we have no fronts around so our weather is caused by an upper trough to our west creating a SW flow of moisture that over time is slowly weakening.  WPC's 7 day rain total keeps drifting it eastward, but we remain in the 4-6"+ rain totals over the next 7 days.

What the Water Vapor image shows in the bottom view is the lack of any upper level high pressure.  Consequently, with cold air aloft, that is an unstable set up that explodes into daytime heating storms. The heaviest storms are to our east and south with only some light rain across most of NOLA.  Certainly that's no reason to go out for dinner and support our local businesses as any threat for flooding is slim to none this evening.

My opinion is to keep the rain gear handy for most of this week, but isn't that what we do most  afternoons during the summer?  Finally,

The scenery of Albuquerque & Santa Fe is spectacular and my time with my 2 older sons PRICELESS.  We will do a podcast later this week so go sign up at bobbreck.com.  Stay tuned!