Before I deal with today's post, let me say thank you to all who commented about yesterday's blog. Several correctly spotted my intentions for using an outrageous hurricane graphic (click-ons) as my followers were way higher than normal. What disappointed me was the number of comments by people who obviously never read my discussion and just made comments about the picture. C'mon Gang, read my whole post BEFORE you comment. We have just one more day before the start of the 2026 hurricane season and worldwide, we have just one Typhoon (Jangmi) going on and that's in the western Pacific.
The current forecast track has it impacting Japan, with the stronger side of this storm staying offshore. NHC does highlight an area east of Hawaii for potential development, but that is based mainly on computer models. Satellite views don't show much.
The EPAC season started May 15th, and they have yet to see their first named storm. As for the Atlantic Basin, the conditions remain very hostile, and there should be nothing happening for the next 7-10+ days. The Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High is centered way out near the Azores, with cold fronts depressing the western nose far south.
The Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is streaming off of Africa, with some dust reaching into the southeastern Gulf. In addition, the Water Vapor view has nothing but upper lows, strong westerly wind shear, and lots of dry air.
But then again, in this El Nino summer, Tropical Development is supposed to be limited. Let's hope that continues. My podcast next week will focus on those limiting factors, but you need to sign up at bobbreck.com to hear and see it. The beauty of my podcast is that it is ad-free and you can listen to it while driving in your car. The better part is being able to watch and see me draw on the graphics on your home tablet or PC. Current subscribers will get a renewal notice as we have made it as hassle-free as possible. For the cost of one Powerball ticket ($2/month), you can become part of Breckster's Backers. Give it a try.
Currently, the disturbed area over the southern and eastern Gulf is almost gone, and WPC's 7-day rain totals no longer bring a heavy rain threat back into Louisiana for next week, keeping most of it well over the southern Gulf. Some welcomed rains are streaming into Drought-stricken Florida.
It's not widespread or nearly enough, but they will take whatever they can get. A strong cold front has pushed off the East Coast, bringing out the sweaters and jackets.
Can you believe Boston is in the 40s and it's almost June? Burrr!
We know the drill here. Highs will be 90+ for the next 3 1/2 months with dew points in the 70s. There is a surge of muggy air all the way up into Minnesota, while the good feel air has dipped into Kentucky and the Carolinas. Locally, we actually saw a sea breeze front around Lake Pontchartrain today.
A few brief showers developed, and that should be the case for the next couple of days. NWS increases rain chances later next week, but I don't see any reason for that happening.
Remember, basic summertime here means 30-50% daily rain chances. Perhaps that weak front coming down the East coast could get close enough to increase our chances, but that would just make us less hot. We certainly don't need (especially southern Mississippi) any more rain for several days. Enjoy your Sunday. Stay tuned!
