Gulf System Unlikely, Heavy Rain threat Next Week.

NHC stopped all advisories on Christina as her circulation is no longer visible on satellite views.  What is visible is the surge of tropical moisture entering the southern Gulf.  NHC continues to give this area a slight chance for development over the weekend.

The Tropical Wave will be steered westward by the nose of the Bermuda High.  Development will be hindered by an upper low over the Gulf with lots of dry air covering the western Gulf. It's why NHC only gives this area a 10% chance to develop.

By late Sunday into Monday, a weak cold front will sag into northern Louisiana, becoming stationary before reaching us.  That stalled boundary will be the focus for heavy rains early next week.

Typically, these late fronts run out of support and stall over northern Louisiana.  That is where WPC's Flood risk is centered for next Monday & Tuesday.

WPC's seven-day rainfall has 4-7" totals across most of LA/MS/AL so we'll need to pay attention in case the frontal boundary gets closer to us.  For now, we're just hot and dry.

 

The next two days will see little, if any, rain but by Sunday rain chances start to increase.  That should result in less hot temps for next week.  Stay Tuned!

NHC Watching Southern Gulf, Hot, Mostly Dry here Rest of Week

Just as soon as I mentioned no tropical development in the Gulf this week, NHC came out this morning highlighting an area over the extreme southern Gulf for potential development.  They give it only a 10% chance, and it is more associated with a strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean than the remains of Christina near the coast of El Salvador.

Christina has weakened due to strong NNE shear around an upper high to her NW.  Several have speculated that some of her moisture/DNA might get into the southern Gulf.  I don't see that as the main moisture is from the tropical wave, not Christina.

Another thing at work here is the reformation of the surface Bermuda high extending westward over the northern Gulf.  that has decreased showers for us and essentially blocks the moisture from the wave coming to the northern Gulf.

Note on the bottom graphic, the WPC's seven day rain totals have nothing coming in from the Gulf.  Instead, it's pooled to our north as a frontal boundary sags closer for next week.

It's pretty much basic summertime for most of the country, with highs 90+ and 70+ dew points up into Wisconsin.  IF we do see a front get close NEXT week, our rain chances could go back up.

In the short term, I see below normal (20-30%) rain chances and typical daily 90+ heat.  Finally,

Today's podcast focused on early-season hurricane development.  If you want to watch it, you have to subscribe for $2/month.  The podcast supplements my Facebook post and goes deeper into the whys of the forecast.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up. Stay tuned!