PTC #1 (Arthur) Coming To NW Gulf, Next Podcast This PM

Even though the center of Invest 90-L is inland SW of Corpus Christi, NHC is using their newer tool (Potential Tropical Cyclone) to begin to issue advisories.  The color satellite view shows intense clusters of T-Storms all along the western Gulf Coast.  I've drawn where the low-level center is on the visible view.

Actually, the heaviest storms (brighter reds) with higher cloud tops are well south of the Low.  This is NOT a well-organized system and may never be.  You should know that in a well-defined, strong Tropical system, the greatest impacts are close to the center of the storm.  In a weaker, ill-defined system, the impacts often extend well beyond the immediate center.  Why is that important?  Because significant impacts can actually occur OUTSIDE the cone of error/uncertainty.  Here's NHC's official Forecast.

You know I follow the centerline position so I can see the NHC's trends on what change in direction/motion the storm is taking.  As mentioned above, with a weaker storm, the centerline is not as important.  With soon to be Arthur (Recon flight is scheduled for this evening), the greater impacts will be well east of the centerline as this is a highly sheared lopsided disturbance. For us, it appears our risk for excessive flooding rain is increasing even though the NHC/WPC graphics keep the heaviest west & north of Lake P. The timing for heaviest rains will be Wednesday after 4 PM into midday on Thursday.

The WPC's graphics have bullseye 10-15"+ total off the Texas coast and inland over LA/MS to our west.   NHC is similar.

I would check with FOX 8 at noon to get the latest model total rainfall potential to see if it is shifted eastward closer to us.

I can actually see 3 swirls on radar over south Texas with one offshore east of Corpus.  A Tropical Storm Watch extends westward to Morgan City.

That will likely be extended eastward on the NHC 4 PM advisory.  My afternoon podcast will follow that advisory.  If you want to watch and hear my thoughts/opinions, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

The cost is $2/month and the podcast frequency is weekly during Hurricane Season, daily during any tropical threat.  It's the price of one Powerball ticket to hear the little fella's take on the NHC guidance. This will NOT be an evacuation storm IF you are inside the levee protection system.

The spaghetti plots are centered on the upper Texas/SW LA. coasts, however there are several models closer to us.  It's pay attention time Gang.

This is a complicated forecast challenge due to a stall, ill-defined frontal boundary that is hard to find even looking at the dew point temperatures.  Here's what I'll be watching.

Will the upper low on Water Vapor entering Wisconsin be close enough to grab PTC 1 and quickly lift him up to the NE.  Or, will PTC 1 get left behind and slowly strengthen over the NW Gulf?  That's why I'll be checking on wave heights to see if they're increasing.  Come join my podcast where I go into much greater detail and tell you "What's Bob thinking?"  When will the dangers reach us, if ever?  Podcast update coming after 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Arthur Coming To NW Gulf? Landcane Bringing Flood Threat? Podcast This PM

 For years Weather Wantabees have been coming up with terms to describe weather extremes. Some examples are Snowmageddon, Super Storm, and now Landcane.  Yes, the internet is going nuts with all kinds of scenarios describing what MIGHT happen in the next few days along the northern Gulf.  Take a look at these.

The bottom is a takeoff on Hurricane Camille back in 1969...Camille, she was no lady.  I have to give these folks credit for being creative.  But what is the point of increasing anxiety when there is so much UNCERTAINTY involved in a complicated forecast situation?  Let's go over what we do know before trying to figure out what we don't know.  There is a long leftover frontal boundary from Texas to Georgia.

There is a low level swirl inland over Mexico with most models bringing it back to the NE later this week.  As  WeatherBell Analytic's Joe Bastardi has been pointing out for weeks, the MJO is in phase 8, which is the favorable phase (rising motion).  He alerted his subscribers that an early season (June) storm was likely.  Now models are trending that way.

The most important question is...will this disturbance move back over the open water of the Gulf?  Well, even if it doesn't, Joe reminds us of Tropical Storm Allison back in 2001 that flooded Houston and much of south Louisiana and looked like a hurricane on radar as it passed north of us (hence Landcane)

Our local weathercasters have informed us that the rest of this week will be Alert/Impact/Warning days.  I prefer to use the term "Pay Attention Time" as Zack pointed out this morning that there will be areas of flooding rain potential.  Right now models are focused on Houston to Lake Charles.

But what if that area is farther to the east?  Then we'll need to PAY ATTENTION.

Zack pointed out such a scenario this morning.  But we all know when a system is weak and ill-defined, models do not handle the solution very well.

 

I grabbed the above graphics from The Weather Channel this morning where Jim Cantore focused the system right on Houston.   Hey, all I want you to know is there still remains high UNCERTAINTY and it's why I will have an afternoon podcast giving you my feelings.  To view the podcast, you must be a subscriber.

NWS has alerted us of the increasing risk on their website.

The predicted rain totals are greater north of Lake Pontchartrain, but even the South Shore should get 2-4".  The main rain area has pulled to our north today with only a few showers around this afternoon.

This week will certainly be a wet one.  The benefit will be less hot temperatures.  I'm preparing to do my next podcast later this afternoon.  Come sign up to see & hear WHAT DOES BOB THINK? Stay tuned!