Drier, Hotter Weekend Ahead, But Tropical Surge late Next week.

When I started in broadcasting with the late Roy Leep at Ch. 13 in Tampa back in 1971, there was no internet and we received our weather information via slow teletype machines.  Regarding tropical information, the NHC/government issued a statement "Not for public information" as they believed those not trained in meteorology could misinterpret/misinform others about the discussion.  Fast forward to now and anything goes.  All kinds of weather "wantabees" issue their own forecast without having earned the credentials that qualify them as being knowledgeable.  Here's an example I found today.

I've searched the models and can find NOTHING to support such nonsense.  The closest thing is the Euro & WPC's 7 day rainfall which does have a heavy rain band near us.  The Euro is on top.

The bottom shows the current tropical moisture that has been pushed farther down into the Gulf.  As NWS indicates, some of that deep tropical moisture COULD bring back the heavy rain threat later next week.

So for now I rather tell you what we do know and that's the central and southern Gulf still has that deep tropical moisture well to our south.

At the moment, drier air has invaded the western Gulf and that should overspread us this weekend as the Gulf moisture turns toward Florida.  Until I have something to follow and models latch on to a day by day model run consistency, then let's ignore the internet chatter and enjoy our weekend.

Without a strong upper high, rain chances will not be zero, but more like typical summertime (30-40%).

There is a stalled front to our north and the good feel air is north of that.  South of that (dew points 70+) it's sticky and almost hot.

 

As our rain chances decrease, temps may warm to 90+ this weekend.  get use to it as we have at least 3 1/2 more months before real cold fronts return.  Get out and enjoy this weekend using common sense and sign up for my podcast as there are signs tropical activity could be on the increase as the MJO goes into the favorable phase for the next several weeks.  Stay tuned!

GFS Model, There You Go Again With Storm In Gulf,Drier Hotter Weekend Forecast, New Podcast

 I remember during a Presidential debate bay in 1980, Ronald Reagan used a line "there you go again" when confronting his opponent who made a falsehood/misleading statement.  It's almost like last night's model run of the GFS that placed a named storm in the Gulf south of us for early NEXT Saturday.  There you go again as the GFS often places storms 7-14 days out that never happen.

Sure the Gulf water temps have reached the 80s and could support such a storm.  However, the upper pattern remains such a hostile environment with low pressure creating strong winds shear that storm formation is highly unlikely and NHC isn't talking about it.  

In addition, the next model run had nothing there! But we are nearing the time of the year when our focus shifts away from cold fronts to tropical disturbances.

If each hurricane season makes you anxious, often scared, then you need to sign up for my Hurricane Podcast at bobbreck.com.  There are no ads to weigh through and the cost is only $2/month.  If you want to know "What does Bob think?" when a storm is in the Gulf or Caribbean, then go sign up.  Today's podcast is about my recent vacation to Santa Fe & Albuquerque.  Future weekly podcasts will deal with tropical discussions and switch to daily podcasts when a major storm forms and/or something gets into the Gulf.  It's called TRUST.  If we are to get an early season storm, it will have to be near the U.S.  Why?  Look at the Atlantic.

Besides water temps being too cool, look at the dust pouring off of Africa.  That is normal for early June & July and we hope it lasts until the strengthening El Nino generates upper wind shear during August & September.  For now, we're trying to get out of a rainy pattern.

Without an upper ridge over us, we have seen a steady stream of tropical moisture pour in from the Gulf. A cold front moving down the East Coast will flatten the SW flow over the Gulf taking the moisture into Florida this weekend where they need the rain.

As we see fewer showers this weekend and more sunshine, that should lead to hotter temperatures and highs 90+.

This morning's downpours have moved well to our north and east and rain coverage will be far less for the next several days.

Just remember, basic summer time here means hot & humid with daily spotty (30-40%) rain chances/coverage.   Unless an upper high builds right over us, it will rain somewhere each day between now & late September.  Subscribers, enjoy my podcast & Stay tuned!