May Recap, Back Door Cold Front, Still Watching Gulf

Today ends May and begins the start of Meteorological Summer, where every day will be hot and humid with a few spotty showers.  Before I get into our local weather, let's look back at May.  Two things that stand out are 1) the average temperature was BELOW normal, and 2) how our dry 1st 4 months flipped to very wet.

What is a little confusing is how much rain fell at MSY and where does 2026 rank compared to past wettest years.  Here's the NWS website info with the bullseye of heaviest rainfall in south Mississippi.

Now what's confusing to me is that there are different numbers for May's total rainfall at MSY.  The Ch. 8 graphics have 9.55" & 9.58" while the NWS site has 9.34"  More confusing is the NWS climate summary issued at 2:50 AM this morning has 9.58".  My guess is the 9.58" is the correct number.  But NWS says May 2026 is the 11th wettest but look at their own web page.

  

IF the 9.58" number is correct, then it's our 9th wettest May.  Whatever, we are no longer in drought.  If you believe in models, a "back door" (moving NE to SW) cold front will reach us on Tuesday, increasing our rain coverage, but then drying us out for Wednesday into Thursday.

IF that front reaches us, we might see our dew points drop into the 60s which would make us feel more comfortable.  What we need to watch for is any swirl that might develop along the tail (western) end of the front.  A lot of tropical moisture remains over the Gulf.

NHC doesn't seem concerned as strong upper westerly wind shear is roaring over the northern Gulf.

The rest of the Gulf and Caribbean are quiet, as no tropical formation is indicated by any model.  NHC continues to highlight (90%) the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) for development of their first named storm (Amanda).

Satellite views remain unimpressive, but computer models say a storm will form.  Out in the WPAC (Western Pacific) Typhoon Jangmi has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it nears Japan.

For us the few spotty, slow moving storms of today will be back again on Tuesday with maybe even greater coverage.

Keep the rain gear handy, with maybe fewer showers for Wednesday into Friday.

I'm not as sure we'll see a surge of tropical moisture returning later this week.  We have reached the time of the year when the 7 day forecast becomes fairly useless in planning as it's difficult to forecast daily rain chances beyond 3 days.  Finally,

The FOX 8 annual Hurricane Special airs tonight.  If you miss it and can't tape it, there will be repeat showings.  Stay tuned!

Typhoon Jangmi Threatens Japan, Late Week Gulf Moisture, 2026 Season Begins

 We all know the 2026 Hurricane season begins at midnight and the next 4-5 months we'll be on the Tropical Watch each day. Right now all the action is out in the western Pacific (WPAC) with only one Typhoon (Jangmi 85 mph) heading on a track just south of Japan.  That should lessen the impacts as most of Japan will be on the weaker side of Jangmi.

NHC is indicating the eastern Pacific (EPAC) is about to get active in the next 3-5 days with a 90% chance (red) for development.

Current satellite view are not impressive, but computer models do develop a storm by late week.  In our part of the World we have no issues, but a couple of interesting features to watch. The most interesting is a cold front that has stalled over the Southeast, but will get closer by Tuesday as a secondary surge of cold air comes out of Canada.

There are several features in the Gulf and Caribbean that catch my eye.  The first is a strong tropical wave moving over the Western Caribbean with the second being the lingering tropical moisture over the east half of the Gulf.

No model develops anything this week, but IF we are to see any early season development, it often is with a frontal boundary that sags down into the Gulf.  The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps the core of the heavy rains down over the Gulf for the next 5-7 days.

The GFS valid for Friday morning does bring some of that moisture inland over south Louisiana, but it also hints of a weak low south of Lafayette.  The MJO is in the favorable phase (rising motion) so it's something to follow this week.

You can clearly see where the frontal boundary is located.  40s & 50s dew points (good feel air) covers the Ohio Valley into the Northeast while most of the South suffers with dew points 70+.  Again today we had a few heavy showers develop.  

I had a great view from high up in Copeland Tower looking back towards downtown.  That shower spread westward over most of East Bank Jefferson.

Like most summer storms, one block is in sunshine while 2-3 blocks away 1-2" of rain falls in less than an hour.  I don't see any major changes until later this week when rain chances could increase depending on that moisture plume down over the Gulf.

My next podcast will focus on our chances for early season hurricane development.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Don't forget the FOX 8 Hurricane Special "Weathering the Storm" airs Monday night at 6:30 PM.  Stay tuned!