Polar Vortex Podcast, Colder Blast Coming Late Week.

 Many of you have wondered when will we get cold and stay cold?  In the Winter, that usually depends on the deepness of the East Coast upper trough.  Sometimes when it cuts off, it's referred to as the Polar Vortex.  More correctly, it's called a lobe of the Polar Vortex.

My next podcast this week will go into detail about this feature and you can watch it by subscribing to my podcast for $2/month at bobbreck.com.  Next up after that is FOX 8 morning meteorologist Zack Fradella talking about his job and family as a new father.

It's almost perfect timing regarding the Polar Vortex as later this week models are indicating just that.

The current set up has a broad trough over the Northeast.  Note how that changes for later this week.

The current trough lifts out with a much deeper trough digging deeper into the Southeast by Thursday.  That could bring us a hard freeze to the North Shore and freezing temps to the South Shore for Friday & Saturday mornings.  I went back to my old house today to bring my hanging baskets into my He-Shed for the rest of this week.

Our current air mass is cold, but not from the Arctic.  It has brought back more January like temps instead of the warmth of last week.  Dew points are very low and that should limit any rain chances for this week.

If you're dressed for it, the next several days should feel delightful.  Not sure why the FOX 8 extended has a warm up on Friday.  I see the late week Arctic Blast being stronger and we will need to pay attention regarding the pipe rule for Friday & Saturday mornings.  My next podcast will air either on Monday or Tuesday.  All subscribers will receive an e-mail notice alerting you it's ready.  Stay tuned!

Severe threat Limited, Mainly North, Cooler Not Frigid Weekend

Since we are in the warm air sector and a cold front is approaching, we will continue to have a threat for some strong T-Storms overnight into Tomorrow.  The upper energy is near Amarillo, and it quickly races to the NE by late Saturday.  Since this system appears to be progressive and not a slow mover, I don't expect any widespread flooding.  SPC has not increased the severe threat, keeping us in a level 2 (slight) risk through Saturday.

Radar currently has most of the rain/storms well to the north & west of NOLA.  Those of you on the North Shore need to pay attention, as the severe threat/danger is greatest north of Lake P.  The upper low is still well to our west over the Texas Panhandle.

Since models quickly move it to the northeast on Saturday, WPC has lowered their total rainfall amounts, with the South Shore lucky to get an inch.

We will be noticeably cooler for this weekend, but this is not an Arctic Outbreak as the upper flow doesn't deepen until next week.  We begin with today's upper flow, followed by Sunday.

You can see on the bottom graphic (Sunday) that the base of the trough doesn't dig down to the Gulf Coast.  Compare that to the GFS forecast for the following Sunday (1-18).  The trough is deeper and farther to the west.  You snow geeks should get excited, as this hints at a southern snowstorm.  But that is way out and likely to change.

Today was another 80-degree day, but model guidance indicates it might be the last for this month as the second half of January will be much colder.

 If you're north of Lake Pontchartrain, pay attention to the radar & your FOX 8 Weather App tonight & early on Saturday.  The severe risk is far less to the south.  Finally, I will post my next podcast on Monday, talking about the Polar Vortex and why we haven't stayed cold this winter. Sign up to subscribe at bobbreck.com.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!