Thursday, March 5, 2015

Huge River Rise Coming...

One of the things I watch for at this time of the year is heavy rains that fall on top of deep snow pack up north.    A little over a week ago heavy snows fell from Dallas across Arkansas into Ky. & TN.   Earlier this week a huge surge of warm air moved northward melting most of that snow, but a band of heavy rainfall (2-3”+) soaked most of Kentucky & Tennessee before  another snowstorm yesterday blanketed the same areas from Dallas northeastward into D.C.   2 Days ago the Mississippi River stage at Cairo, IL . was falling at 28 feet (flood stage is 40’).   When I checked today their gage rose 3+ feet with a crest above 43’ coming on March 10th.   That’s a whopping rise of 15 feet.   It will take 2 weeks for that rise to reach us, but I would guess our Carrollton gage will jump from the current 7 feet to above 10+ feet provided no more heavy rains fall.   It could be a pattern setting up that will bring us river problems here in April & May much like 2 years ago?  Stay tuned!

 

In the short term, we’ve seen some exceptional temperature drops (30-40 degrees) over a few hours and could be dealing with record cold (31) Friday morning after record warmth (85 Audubon Park) on Wednesday.   Fortunately, the next 2 days look dry with filtered sunshine through high, thin clouds.  The warm up will be painfully slow with highs staying below normal/average for the next 5-7 days.   Next week’s pattern is setting up to be a rainy one for several days.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

March Madness !

Home of the Wildcats & likely National Champions, Lexington, KY. Is being buried with 1-2” of heavy wet snow that could total over a foot by morning.   In fact, Winter Storm Warnings are flying from New England back to Texas tonight.   Dallas will likely again have long delays along with other airports.  Any car  travel north of Jackson/ Alexandria tomorrow will be very difficult due to icy roads.    Locally, we’ll need the heavy coats & sweaters again as temps will be nearly 40 degrees colder.  A wind advisory is in effect for Thursday with gusts to 40 mph possible.   In addition,  the winter weather gear will be needed into next week as the warm up will be slow and rain chances return by Sunday.   Spring?  Hope you enjoyed the past 2 days!   Stay tuned!

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Wild Swings of Spring

Today was our warmest day since last December when we hit 81 on the 5th.  Lakefront Airport recorded 83 with Kenner hitting 80.   Since I like warm weather, I have no problems dealing with it.  However, with local water temps still in the 50s, dense fog issues will continue until a cold front arrives early on Thursday.  Expect another Spring like day on Wednesday as many spots should top 80, but behind the front on Thursday, the daylight highs will stay in the 40s with a brisk north wind.   That will be a big change for us, but luckily the frozen stuff will stay well to our north.  This front will have a tough time clearing the LA/MS coast as a WSW upper flow will allow the front to stall with over running moisture keeping rain chances around into the weekend.   After Wednesday, a rather cold and ugly 3-4 days are shaping up.   Boo.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Winter Not Done...

While our temps have rebounded from last week’s chill, there are signs that many more cold front will be coming during the next several weeks.  In fact, this is the time of the year for strong fronts that sometimes bring severe weather and this is our Severe Weather Awareness Week.   Fortunately, it appears that the strongest storms with our next front will stay to our north & east, but we will not miss out on the temperature drop.  Tuesday and Wednesday will be Spring Like (80+) before it’s back to sweaters and coats (40s) on Thursday.  Friday doesn’t look much better (near 50) with a slow warming into the weekend.    This up & down pattern is fairly typical for the transition from Winter into Spring.  The next issue for us will be watching the River rise IF we get heavy Spring rains up north on top of their snow cover.  A minor rise will bring the Mississippi up to 7 feet at the Carrollton gage this week, far below where it causes any problems.  Stay tuned!