Monday, September 24, 2018

The Countdown Has Begun...

One week from today we reach October and no computer model has any tropical system developing in the Gulf.  Models do show our first real front pushing through towards the end of the first week in October.   I have booked the “Fat Lady” for the second week of October when we should know if more cooler weather is coming.   Tonight’s temperatures from Boston to NYC to Detroit, Chicago out west to Denver into Montana are in the 40s & 50s – sweater weather!  It’s only a matter of time before that chill will return…but not this week & most of next week.   It the meantime, we have to deal with that summer-like feel that has been here since May.   NWS indicates shower chances for the next few days will be above normal (60-80%) versus the more typical 30-40%.  Keep the rain gear handy.

 

The Tropics continue active, but all of the threats remain far out at sea.   The nearest is a cluster of storms SE of the Carolina coastline that is expected to swing just offshore.  The last thing they need right now is more rain.  It’s heartbreaking to watch all the neighborhoods still under water.  Certainly brings back the ugly memories of Katrina where many of us were displaced from our homes for weeks & months.  We can identify with their misery.  Leslie is going to stay way out in the middle of the north Atlantic while what’s left of Kirk is churning towards the Windward islands.   For now things are looking up for us, especially if we can get the cold fronts coming.  Stay tuned!

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Fall Coolness Not Too Far Away...

A good part of the nation is in the 40s & 50s tonight and all we need is for an east coast trough to develop that will drag that chill down to us.  Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen until NEXT week at the soonest.   However, walking Bailey tonight and it just didn’t feel bad out…warm, but not hot.   With the MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation) going back into the favorable (rising air) phase for the next 7-10 days, look for more tropical activity to break out.  No model shows anything developing in the Gulf, but the swirl south of Bermuda is starting to see some storms burst around the circulation and that is likely to be our next named (Michael) storm.  Models bring is westward toward the Carolina coast, but quickly turn it back to the NE just brushing the coast.   The last thing they need is more rain so let’s hope the models are correct keeping the rain shield offshore.   Leslie is the only other system way out in the central Atlantic and it will probably still be around next weekend.   Kirk was smashed by strong westerly shear and that shear will keep a hostile environment over the Caribbean for much of this week.  The “Fat Lady” has indicated she is available to sing anytime during the next 10-14 days, but I want to make sure we have cold fronts coming before she sings…”turn out the lights”.  Stay tuned!

 

On my last blog, I talked about a JPAS play in Westwego that I saw on Friday night that was terrific.  However, I never mentioned the name of the play so tonight I will.  It’s called SHEAR MADNESS and it really is.  Go check it out.  I promise you’ll love it. 

Friday, September 21, 2018

No Kirk Just Yet, But 4 Systems to Track...

NHC upgraded the area of disturbed weather several hundred miles SE of Barbados to Tropical Depression # 11 tonight.  There is a low level swirl of clouds, but all the T-Storms are being sheared off to the south and east of the center by strong west upper winds.  If this were to become Kirk, he wouldn’t last very long as the upper shear is expected to persist ahead of it through the weekend.  Another obvious swirl has moved off of Africa and it appears to have the better chance of becoming our next named storm.  However, it is so far out that, even if it were to come straight to us, that would be 12-14 days from now.  Another swirl is south of Bermuda with no storms with it, with yet another swirl far out over the north Atlantic.   The eastern Gulf has an upper low drifting towards the west and that should keep a hostile environment for any development into next week.

 

What we’re all waiting for is that first real Fall cold front as Fall (Autumnal Equinox) happens on Saturday.   Sadly, there are no strong fronts in sight, although a leftover frontal boundary will sag our way for next week.  That might make for a soggy pattern for a few days so keep the sweaters in the closet and your shorts & rain gear handy.  The following weekend into the first week of October might see a better chance for a weak front to pass through.  Most of the norther tier of states are in the 30s & 40s tonight.  It’s gonna get here, but not until next month.  

 

Tonight I went to see a comedy murder mystery play at the Westwego Performing Arts Theatre and have not LOL ( that’s Laugh Out Loud for those over 50!) that much in a long time.  The material is so funny and presented by a talented cast of local actors who are really, really good.   If you are looking for local entertainment in a quaint setting, try going to see this play.  Call the JPAS (Jefferson Performing Arts Society) at 504-885-2000 or info@jpas.org for tickets.  I promise you won’t be disappointed.  Go with a group of friends like we did tonight.   It was really a hoot!!!  Stay tuned!

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Which Will be Kirk, Leslie or Michael?

We continue to be in a lull across the Tropics this week, but the MJO is heading back into the rising air mode for next week.  Expect to see several systems getting named at once & there are 3 possibilities showing up on satellite loops tonight.   A well-defined low level swirl of clouds near Bermuda has no storms around it  since there is too much NW upper wind shear.   Another well-defined swirl is several hundred miles SE of Barbados with yet the third, and largest swirl coming off of Africa.  None of them look to ever be a threat to the northern Gulf coast.    Long range models continue to bring our first real cold front through for the last week in September.  That’s still over a week away so don’t look for any relief from our humidity & heat just yet.   Today saw a few late PM storms that swamped some neighborhoods while leaving nearby areas dry.   Parts of Jefferson received 2-3”+ while in Orleans very little fell.   It appears our heat wave is finally over as our daily shower chances have returned.   I’ll be happy to get into October when we know more fronts will be coming and we can say goodbye to 90 degree heat and hello to less humid good feel air.   Most of Montana had highs in the 60s today.  It’s only a matter of time…Stay tuned!