Monday, October 20, 2014

Hanna In Gulf? Not Likely

We are now in the last 10 days of October and I cringe whenever I hear a local Weathercaster talk about a system in the Gulf we need to watch.   Can I say it again...OUR TROPICAL SEASON IS OVER!   Can we get a late season storm in the Gulf?  Absolutely, but the chances of it impacting Louisiana are NEAR ZERO.  For instance, we do have a weak disorganized circulation down over the Bay of Campeche.   NHC is giving it a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days.  But have you looked at the upper wind pattern predicted for the rest of this week?  A deep East Coast trough is expected to trigger an early season Nor'Easter that will keep a northerly flow across us and steer anything that might form over the southern Gulf towards Florida or Cuba.   It will not and can not be our problem.   So relax and enjoy this absolutely gorgeous spell of late October weather that should last through next weekend.  There are signs that a real shot of cold air will arrive during the first week of November.  Those longer Fall nights are beginning to show up in near zero temperatures across northern Canada.   I have my sweaters ready, and when necessary, I'll bring out the heavy weather gear for Winter.  You "Cold Air Freaks", get ready to enjoy your time of the year..  Once Christmas passes,  I'll be looking forward to Spring.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Verifiable Forecast...

As most of you know, I have often complained of the Alarmist's predictions from the Global Warming Crowd as being " unverifiable".  In other words, make claims that cannot be proved right or wrong since none of us will be alive.  As an example...in the year 2050, or 2080, or 2100 this or that will happen.   On the other hand, NOAA came out with their Winter Forecast this week that says it'll be colder and wetter for most of the U.S. east of the Mississippi.   Finally that's something that we will know in another 3-4 months if there is any skill involved.   My friends at WeatherBell Analytics are predicting another brutal Winter, colder & snowier than last year.  Again, that's a forecast we'll know in 3-4 months if they are right or wrong.  When you see wild claims about the future 50, 80 or 100 years from now, remember those are "predictions" made for hype, for media visibility, not for scientific accuracy.

Hope you have been enjoying this stretch of beautiful October weather.   That is why I usually take many vacation days this month.  Plus ratings begin in November and I can't take any time off.   Computer models are trying/hinting that there could be some tropical development over the southern Gulf during the next 3-5 days.   As I have mentioned many times, once into October, especially after the middle parts of the month, we are protected by stronger westerly winds that steer any tropical systems far to our south & east.  That is certainly the case this year.   We have several cold fronts coming so I look to more great feeling air before the real cold of Winter sets in next month.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

How Sweet It is...

I remember the late Jackie Gleason crooning “Oh how sweet it is.”   On the Honeymooners, a great comedy show back in the 50s. (yea I am that old!)  Tonight the air feels just that way.  Just the way I remember Marine Corps boot camp in San Diego back in 1970.  Each day was sunny with highs in the 70s while the nights were comfy cool in the 50s & that went on for weeks & weeks.   One reason I love October is he cold fronts are not too cold and the days still warm up but no longer too hot.  We are in such a stretch right now that will last for the next 2-3 days.   By this weekend, it’ll start to feel summer like again as we warm back to 80+ and the muggies return.  However, since no new fronts are coming, no rain is expected.

 

Hurricane Gonzalo is now a strong Cat. 3 and is predicted by NHC to be Cat. 4 on Wednesday.  It’s forecast track nears Bermuda late Thursday as a Cat. 3 and that island is already under a Hurricane Watch.   In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Ana may threaten Hawaii late this weekend.   Thank goodness fronts are coming and our season is over.  Stay tuned!

Monday, October 13, 2014

Fall Severe Season

Most of us know that the Spring is time for Tornadoes, but there is a distinctive secondary severe weather season for us in late October into early December.  Usually the threat is more widespread “straight line winds” versus the compact swirl of a tornado, but damage is damage.  Does it matter what caused it?  Nah, the only ones who care are the insurance companies, but let’s not get me started.   Behind these early Fall fronts the cool down is not drastic and the daytime highs are pleasantly warm (75-80) with the nights comfy cool (40s & 50s).  Enjoy the next 2-3 days before the muggies slowly crept back over the weekend.

 

Hurricane Gonzalo has already started making the turn to the north away from Puerto Rico.  He is getting stronger and could become a major storm during the next 2-3 days threatening Bermuda only days after that island took a blow from Fay.  Our season is over since we have cold fronts coming and anything that forms this late should be steered well to our east.  Stay tuned!