As mentioned in a previous blog, the southern storm track has become active bringing much needed rain to areas of severe drought. Last week’s 2-4”+ helped put out fires but brought tornadoes with it. Since colder air is in place this week, the severe threat will be confined much farther to the south. We will see several waves of rain between now and Tuesday with many dry hours in between. IF we get back into the warm sector on Sunday & Monday, some strong storms could develop. But the real story coming next week will be the cold. An Arctic blast will spread over most of the country by late week with more freezes coming for the North Shore and away from Lake P. on the South Shore. What the models are not showing right now is the development of low pressure along the Arctic front. IF that happens, a snow storm could whiten parts of the Gulf South. Don’t get too excited as the flakes should stay well to our north. Regardless, get the cold weather gear ready as you’ll need it by Thursday & Friday of next week. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
There has been a real severe weather set up today, but the SPC’s bullseye for the greatest threat is well to our north. That is where individual super cell storms have formed producing several tornadoes. IF we are to see any severe weather here, it will likely be caused by straight line winds along a LINE of storms near daybreak. Watching various local weathercasters, I was disappointed to see they all read from the same playbook. None of them downplayed our risk, much like last night when nothing happened. I always worried about crying wolf all the time would result in many folks tuning you out when the threat was real. Am I saying there is no risk? Of course not, but show me what NWS & SPC thinks & THEN tell me what your training & experience tells you. One thing lacking tonight is a drastic temperature contrast behind the front that would enhance lift. Will we see some strong storms for morning drive? Probably, but let’s not overhype this threat for us. The real danger should stay well north of Lake P. Stay tuned!
Dr. Jeff Masters on has web site is asking folks to support climate scientists thru something called CSLDF. . . Climate Scientists legal Defense Fund. What this fund will do is try to protect the BILLIONS of dollars our government spends pushing the AGW agenda. If the Planet continues to warm for the next 5-10 years, I’ll join the AGW bandwagon. My take is a cooling CYCLE should set in as it always has in past climate history. We should not have long to wait to see results as the El Nino of 2015 is long gone. Signs are shaping up for a snowy, cold December to develop during the next 7-10 days. Remember the snow here in December 2008? Too warm usually goes to too cold. We can always dream!
Monday, November 28, 2016
Satellite & radar loops indicate the strongest storms are staying well north of the Lake and moving away as the main upper energy lifts to the NE. However, another strong upper disturbance will approach by late Tuesday into early on Wednesday bringing another threat for strong storms. There appears to be a set up for a more active southern storm track for the next 7-10 days and that will be great news for areas that are in severe drought. In the short term, tonight will see some fast moving spotty showers with some rumbles of thunder, but rain totals should be less than an inch at most locations. Tuesday will see lots of clouds with a few AM showers, but there will be many dry hours. The best rain chances come after midnight Tuesday into early on Wednesday when a weak cold front will move through. This front will not bring brutal cold but there are signs that next week could be much colder with even some southern snows. No fooling! Too soon to say how far south, but I want to get you snow “freaks” excited ! Stay tuned!
I counted over 200 grapefruit still on my tree and the colder it gets, the sweeter they get.
Sunday, November 27, 2016
Yep, seems like anytime you do something where you don’t want it to rain, it rains. Case in point…we went 6 weeks without rain back in Sept. thru early November. I had a long time fishing trip planned the 1st week in November and, budda bing, that was the day we had 3-5”+ of rain. Luckily the trip was down in Venice and we only had to dodge a few showers. Fast forward…I had another trip planned for tomorrow & Tuesday and cha-ching, cold front is coming, small craft advisory goes up and rain chances increase to 80%+. What’s going on? I think back to a priest friend (Fr. Joe) who once say…”He will afflict you in your comfort…” I guess my comfort has been retirement, but c’mon now…2 trips in a row. Forget about needing rain…I need my fishing! Talk about kicking a guy when he’s down ( OK you Ohio State fans, you won so let me move on!).
Seriously, we do need some rain, especially areas to our north and east into Alabama & Georgia. A slow moving front should give us several waves of rain Monday night into Tuesday and again late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Computer models suggest several inches are possible and that would be ok if stretched out over many hours. I don’t see any brutal cold coming in the next 7-10 day time frame and our recent coolness has been perfect for hardening my plants & citrus trees for the coming Winter freezes. In fact, the cool nights sweeten my grapefruit crop, which this year totals 200-250. I’ve got 40+ lemons in a pot and I’m hoping my satsuma finnaly bears fruit next year or it’s outa here! Now that I have time, gardening is so much fun. Fishing, gardening, golfing, traveling…I need to go back to work to get some rest! NOT !!! Stay tuned.