Saturday, September 24, 2016

Computer Models have Bloggers Buzzing...

For the 3rd straight day, several long range (10-12 days) computer models develop a major hurricane in the Caribbean and move it westward.    The problem continues to be location that far away.  Initially, Louisiana was the bullseye, then the Florida beaches and today anywhere from the Yucatan to west of Tampa Bay.   So let’s take a deep breath and go over what we do know.    1)  There is a strong tropical wave out in the Atlantic that is farther south than any system so far this year.  2)  It is moving very quickly (20-25 mph) to the west so development should be slow.  3)  The western Caribbean has some of the warmest water temps. 4) IF it did head into the Gulf, that wouldn’t be until late next week (Oct. 6-7).  The rest we don’t know except, historically, there has only been one (1893) land falling major hurricane cross the Louisiana coastline after October 1st.     IF this system becomes a storm (Matthew) and then a strong hurricane, stronger hurricanes typically curve to the north and then northeast.   Notice, I have not mentioned the “Fat lady” lately and that is because of the potential  future threat from this system.   She is in the house and heading towards the stage, but she won’t start going onto the stage until we know for sure we will not have a threat from this disturbance.  We’ll have all week to watch it and plenty of time to prepare.


Of immediate interest is a cool front that appears to be heading our way next week.  No, it won’t require sweaters and jackets, but it should push away the tropical feel we have endured for 5 months..  Hopefully, more frequent and stronger fronts will start coming putting the nail in the coffin to our 2016 hurricane season.  Stay tuned!

Friday, September 23, 2016

Hurricane in Gulf in 2 weeks?

Yep, that’s what the GFS is doing…bringing a strong hurricane into the Gulf & then northward into Louisiana 2 weeks from today.  Could that happen?  Sure.  And the Saints might go to the Super Bowl this year too!   Bottom line, computer models often form storms way out (10-14 days) that never develop.  So far we have nothing to track except a weak wave that has moved off of Africa.   The only thing that supports development by the end of next week & into October is the Rising air phase of the MJO that shifts from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf & Caribbean.   But you have to have some type of disturbance first & RIGHT NOW, we have nothing going on.    Let’s keep an eye on that system in the Atlantic & future model runs that will either show consistency that a storm might be coming, or that today’s model run was out to lunch.   What is more likely to happen late next week is this.  A weak cold front will stagger into the Gulf & something might try to spin up on the SW end of it way down in the Gulf.   So instead of worrying about something so far away, we may need to pay attention to something much closer to home…but again that’s at the end of NEXT WEEK.  Enjoy this weekend even though it won’t feel like Fall.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Still Quiet on our Tropical Front...

With a little over a week to go in September, we have no signs indicating a tropical threat will come our way for the next 7-10 days.  That gets us into October when cold fronts should start coming on a more frequent basis.  I’m encouraged by the lack of activity during the peak of the season.  Late season activity almost always is steered away from us as the westerlies dip farther south.  I’m not ready to declare the 2016 Hurricane season is over for us, but it really looks like we will not have a storm that would require evacuations here.  Worldwide, there are zero storms in the Pacific and only 2 in the Atlantic right now.    Whatever the reason for this inactivity, let’s hope it continues.


Locally, Fall has arrived with no signs of cooler weather for at least a week.   Carl Arredondo had a graphic tonight that showed since June, the last 4 months have been either the hottest or the 2nd hottest on record.  That’s pretty telling for our long, hot summer.   I have mentioned this in the past.  Mother Nature often will go from one extreme to the other with little time in between.   The Fall outlook is calling for the warmth to hang around over the Southeast, but my take is we could see some really cold air come December-February.   After the last 4 months, even this hot weather geek won’t mind a cooldown.   Stay tuned!

Monday, September 19, 2016

Climate Change Agenda...Full Assault

Since we have little to talk about regarding tropical weather, let me rant a little on what I feel is an all-out full court press by the government  to curtail fossil fuels & our standard of living.   In Today’s USA TODAY, big headlines said…”TOUGH LOVE IS NEEDED ON CLIMATE CHANGE”.   It was an article spouting all the claims on how our Planet is going to hell in a hand basket without zero opposing viewpoints…and there are opposing viewpoints.   Strange that we NEVER see these in the mainstream press.  It’s almost like, I dare say, a conspiracy to keep any opposing facts out of the hands of the American public.   In the same newspaper in section B was this headline.  MORE WILLNG TO PAY TO FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE, SURVEY SAYS.   The headline implies the American people are will to pay , however, the articles then says 57 % are willing to pay an extra ONE DOLLAR per month on their electric bills with 42% saying no way I want to or can pay more.     Seriously?  Hardly an overwhelming endorsement.   But here’s my point.   There is a government agenda that wants to penalize us for being successful and tax us more to try and stop something that is way beyond our control.    What I don’t understand is why don’t we try to fix stuff (the homeless, the hungry, the drug addicts, the lack of family support in raising children, the killing of young black males by each other etc. ) that we can influence?  Where we can measure results?  Does anyone really believe creating more government agencies to limit carbon emissions will work?   How can it be monitored?  I try to read as much as I can regarding both sides of the debate, which is…what is causing our current warming CYCLE?  I suggest you look up ICECAP.US to read other viewpoints regarding what is happening on our Planet.   I found this line that is food for thought.  “ Religion is a culture of Faith.  Science is a culture of doubt”.    When one side (government) will not allow the doubt to be heard, then their views become like a religion.    Amen!