Sunday, October 15, 2017

Finally Relief...

I mentioned that I was going to the LSU game yesterday, and what a game it was.   However, my friends & I didn’t watch the come from behind win in the stadium, but rather in an Air Conditioned sports bar.  Our seats were on the east side(sun side) of the stadium and we knew it would be hot.  But after enduring the heat for the 1st quarter into the second, we made a decision to leave as none of us (all 70+) were feeling very good despite trying to stay hydrated.  Emergency medical reports indicated many people were treated for heat related symptoms during the game.  I’m sure, if we stayed, we would have been in that number.  Never in my life have I been that hot.  I know having a day game in mid-October is not what LSU wants, but they are controlled by the SEC contracts with the CBS network who owns broadcasting rights.   CBS wanted Alabama-Arkansas in prime time, and rightfully so since ‘Bama is #1 in the polls.  But really having a day game in September or the 1st 3 weeks into October should be banned just for the safety of the fans.  I realize that will never happen since big money is involved, but I needed to vent.  

 

The first real front since mid-September will arrive before daybreak bringing brisk north winds, much lower humidity & much cooler temperatures.  We will enjoy 3-4 days of sunshine and comfortable temperatures before the muggies return in earnest for next weekend.   That surge of Gulf moisture could bring a heavy rain threat for the many Fairs that are scheduled for Friday through Sunday.   Long range, an even stronger cold front will blast through around the 10-14 day time frame.   That will bring out the sweaters and jackets for a while.  Word has it that the “Fat Lady” has landed and will be on stage tomorrow night ready to belt out her hit record,…”Turn Out the Lights”.  Stay tuned!

Friday, October 13, 2017

Which Tiger Will Be Hot? How About Both!

Tradition has LSU playing most of their home games on “Saturday Night in Tiger Stadium”.  Da Da Da Uoomph!   Sometimes, because of SEC TV commitments , our Tigers have to play Saturday afternoon, which is the case for tomorrow.  My friend (Dr. Rob) has again invited me to join him cheer on our boys, but I can guarantee everyone will be hot with highs 85-90.  I’m sure there will be some folks who’ll suffer from heat exhaustion in the stands & many players are likely to cramp up as down on the field temps could approach 100.   Bottom line, I’ll have my sunscreen and wide brimmed hat on and will stay hydrated with plenty of WATER!   No light beer till the game is over.   This current hot spell will finally end as a real cold front arrives late Sunday night.  The North Shore should see lows dip into the 50s next week with even some 60s south.  Water temperatures in Lake Pontchartrain are still in the low to mid 80s, way too warm for so late into October.   It appears the pattern is setting up to see several fronts pass through during the next 2-3 weeks, each one getting a little colder.  In fact, if models are correct, the last week in October could bring out the sweaters and jackets. With that in mind, the “Fat Lady” will be flying in to perform on stage Monday Night.   In case some of you are too young to remember, Don Meredith (former Dallas Cowboy QB & ABC announcer) would sing parts of the song late in the Monday Night football game when it became apparent the one team would lose. He would say,…”the game is not over until the Fat Lady sings”.  Don would then sing the first verse of the Willie Nelson song recorded back in the 50s.  Thought you might enjoy…

                Turn out the lights, the party’s over.  They say that all good things must end.  Call it a night, the party’s over.

 

I’ve adopted it as the closing out of the hurricane season FOR US.   Hurricanes can and do form in late October into November, but our threat gets so small that the party’s over.   NHC is following a well-defined swirl approaching the northern Leeward Islands that showed up on the daylight (visible) satellite loop.  There are no T-Storms with it since there is too much upper shear.  It could develop late this weekend east of the Bahamas but will not impact the U.S.   Our next front arrives late Sunday so we only have 2 more days to really fry.   Some good news for California.  Long range models are bringing the first rainstorm into the state for NEXT weekend.  Hopefully it’ll be enough to end their fire season which has been the deadliest on record.   Stay tuned!

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Still Waiting for Real Front...

As we are almost midway through October, I was noticing our record lows are down into the mid-40s so it can get chilly at this time of the year…but not in 2017.  We were spoiled with an early cool front in the second week of September, but since then temperatures have been way above normal.  We hit 90 again today only 1 degree from tying the record high.  A weak front did bring slightly drier air today, but it’s the next front on Monday that should have you excited.   That front won’t get you scurrying for your sweaters, but it should whack highs back into the 70s with morning lows on the North Shore dipping into the 50s with 60s south of Lake P.       Usually when we’ve been very warm for a long time, the atmosphere flip-flops to a much colder pattern.  I don’t see that happening yet as even up in Alaska, there is no real cold air building yet.   Typically, that’s where I look in the Winter months to see what kind of air we’ll get in the 2-3 week out time frame.   If Alaska isn’t cold yet, don’t expect any arctic blast from plunging our way.  We don’t want that type of chill, rather just enough to get us back to “normal/average”. 

 

NHC is talking about an area of T-Storms east of the Leeward Islands that could slowly develop by this weekend as it moves to the northwest.  Since we have a strong front coming on Monday, that would block anything from moving into the Gulf.   So the “Fat Lady” telephoned she will arrive Sunday night and will be performing on stage Monday night.    They will probably be 2-3 more named storms before the season wraps up in November, but for us it’s time to “turn out the lights…”   Amen!  Stay tuned!

 

If you saw more videos from the nightmare out in California, all you can say is…stunning, numbing, amazing…but to those of us in the weather business, not surprising.  Last year’s rainy season was one of the wettest ever and that created a lot of lush vegetation or fuel for this fire season.    California always has a fire season, but this year we knew it could worse since the Winter rains allowed for rapid plant growth.  Unless you’ve lived through a “firestorm”, there’s no describing the speed and intensity of a wall of fire.   Like an Earthquake, a wildfire gives folks little warning/chance to prepare.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Hurricane Season Over?

As we transition deeper into Fall, it becomes less & less likely any hurricane can cross the Louisiana coast.   Oh sure, there was Juan back in late October of 1985, but that is more the exception.   The time for any major (Cat 3+) hurricane historically has passed.  Cold Fronts thankfully will be coming (Egad, was it hot out today!) and the upper air westerlies will increase creating too much shear for tropical development.   Looking at today’s water vapor loop shows upper (TUTT- Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) lows  covering most of the tropics from the western Gulf to way off the East Coast.  These lows create a hostile environment for tropical development and none of the long range computer models shows anything happening for the next 10-14 days.  Ophelia is still churning out in the Atlantic, but that is the only storm on the whole planet.  While this has been a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, that is not the case for the Tropical Pacific.    I have heard that the “Fat Lady” will be on a flight back here early next week.  By then (Tuesday) a real cold front should be pushing through and it’ll be time for her to sing “Turn Out the Lights, The Party’s Over!!!)  Stay tuned!

 

As I mentioned, we all know how bad this hurricane season has been.  Deadly, destructive with overwhelming damage over vast areas.   But I believe we’ll take the hurricane threat any day over the wildfire threat that is burning thousands of homes out in California.    At least we can prepare for hurricanes.  Watching the videos of the fires showed folks had minutes at best to scramble and flee leaving whole lifetime of memories behind.  It was so sad to hear of the couple (aged 100 & 98) who had been together since grade school perish during the fires.    Yea, hurricanes are bad, but they provide us time to pack up some valuables and flee out of harm’s way.   We need to be thankful that the storms of 2017 only brushed Louisiana.  We’ve been in the deepest, darkest Valley (Katrina) before so we know the pain many people are feeling from natural disasters this year.  Prayers are in order.