Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Tropics Remain Quiet...I Think

The WSI computer model is hinting that a circulation will form just south of the mouth of the River early Friday morning.   NHC isn't talking about it, but I think there is some potential for development since 1) surface pressures are low and 2) there is diverging upper winds over the central Gulf.  Diverging upper winds promote rising air motion at the surface.    IF there is some development by Friday, we could see some unexpected moisture rotate back over south LA/MS possibly reaching as far north as the CBD.    There really isn't a threat to us since the fast upper NW flow should take whatever might form farther down into the Gulf away from us.     If that did happen, dry air should be drawn down over us making for a mostly dry weekend.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, there is a weak upper disturbance heading across Arkansas tonight.  It could increase shower chances here for Thursday PM.   No real cold air is in sight, but it appears we are seeing a gradual cool down as the sun angle gets lower in the sky.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Edouard Briefly Cat. 3

It's hard to believe (after all the Alarmist's predictions for more numerous & intense hurricanes) that we finally saw a major (Cat. 3) hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.   You have to go back to Sandy in 2012 when she was a Cat. 3 south of Cuba.   The lack of storm activity (5 Names) in the Atlantic contrasts to the eastern Pacific where they have had 16 named storms with 7 of them reaching major status!   That is very typical.  When one basin is active, the other is not.  So let's hope this trend/pattern continues into October.  I was thinking we'd see several late September REAL cold fronts, but that appears unlikely for the next 7-10 days.  We need the east coast upper trough to return and computer models are not predicting that.  In fact, they are keeping most of the lower 48 states warm with the winter-like cold bottled up in Canada.  When the dip in the jet stream does arrive in early October, we'll be running for our sweaters & jackets.  Stay tuned!

locally, we should see far fewer showers around the next several days.  Drier but not cooler!

Monday, September 15, 2014

Dave Barnes Passes...

On everybody's journey through life, there are usually several people that really make a difference.  My grade school teacher Sister Marie Anita, my college professor Dr. Bill Kuhn, my TV mentors, John Coleman, Harry Volkman & Roy Leep.   I would add Dave Barnes to the above list as Dave was the head of the local office of the  National Weather Service back in 1978 when I arrived in N.O.  The office was located on one of the top floors of a building near the Post Office with a very visible tower that housed the radar.  Since Ch. 8 had no weather office or any weather equipment when I arrived, I visited Dave's office everyday for 4-6 weeks until Ch. 8's weather equipment finally was delivered.  Dave was the one who tutored me on New Orlean's unique weather and helped me survive my 1st "hundred year" flood (May 3, 1978).  Dave took my late wife & I on his boat for my 1st trip on Lake Pontchartrain.   Even when Dave left the NWS to join Ch. 4 in 1983, we stayed close friends.   I admired him (he had a Masters in Meteorology), I respected him & I competed against him...but always, we remained friends.   Dave Barnes was only 78.

Don't much feel like talking about the weather & I trust you understand.  Tuesday should see more active tropical downpours.  The Tropics have several systems, but none are in our neighborhood nor are any expected for the next 7-10 days.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

No Hurricanes, No Tropical Storms, Just Depression

Yea, we should be happy that it appears we'll not have to evacuate for a hurricane this season.  Then why do we feel such DEPRESSION?   Can you say Da Saints Defeat?  Wow!  Who would have thunk 0 & 2?  But lest we forget, it is more important how you finish strong.  Let's just trust our guys will turn it around next week.

As we reach the middle of September, computer models are showing no storms threatening the Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  I have mentioned in the past that once into October, our chances for a major hurricane is near zero. Only in 1893 have we had a major hurricane cross the Louisiana coast and that happened during the first week.   I am feeling more and more confident that we will not have to worry about evacuation during this storm season.   Can we still see a late season storm?  Absolutely, but history tells us those storms are far weaker (Juan 1985) than the Brutes of August & September, plus stronger westerly steering currents start to bring down fronts from the north.  I can hear "The Fat Lady" rehearsing in the back room, but it's still awhile before she steps on stage.  Stay tuned!