Monday, April 27, 2015

Faith in Models...

Just when you think computer models are never right, along comes today.  If you watched Nicondra Norwood last night at 9 & 10, she showed the RPM model that nailed the squall line/bow echo that roared through us this morning.   It was on time & in the correct location.   The old saying…”even a blind squirrel finds a stray nut” every now and then.   That’s why INITIALIZATION is so important.    Tonight’s VIPIR does not initialize the current rainfall correctly. So I must buy into the RPM since it does.   The RPM moves the heavy rains offshore and away from us with no new line of storms coming for morning drive.   That is a change from earlier runs.  Let’s hope that is correct as we have now moved into the 5th wettest April spot just under 12” !   We need a week to dry out and we may get that as the upper disturbance over Texas lifts out and bring down cooler & drier air for the rest of this week.   IN fact, we could see a stretch of good feel, low humidity air into the weekend.  We’ve earned the break!  Stay tuned!   

Sunday, April 26, 2015

More Severe Storms Monday?

With last week’s hailstorm and Saturday’s wind storm fresh on our minds, it appears the next 2 days could bring us more nasty boomers.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a “slight risk” for severe storms so we’ll need to keep up with the weather on Monday, especially between 9-noon as  a squall line is predicted to develop over east Texas and head quickly across south Louisiana.  Gusty, possibly damaging winds & large hail with heavy rains are the more likely possibilities.  A weather watch box is likely to be issued if the computers are correct.   The computer models weren’t very accurate on Saturday and they could be overplaying tomorrow’s threat, but it is a day we need to pay attention to those morning broadcasts.

 

In this age of modern technology, I find it difficult to believe so many boats were caught in Saturday’s T-Storms south of Mobile Bay.  The boaters I know all have the ability to receive real time radar and no longer have to watch the horizon to know it’s time to head inland.  Several dead, some still missing…tragic.   What were they thinking?   More likely, what were they drinking? 

Friday, April 24, 2015

Weekend Wet? Nah...Models say no...

A cluster of T-Storms developed over east Texas this morning and raced across south Louisiana bringing lots of lightning, large hail, heavy rainfall and damaging winds.  I don’t expect the same situation to develop on Saturday as computer models have few, if any, showers forming.  That does not mean we can’t bubble up a stray storm or two.  I just feel we won’t see the intensity of this afternoon’s boomer.  Sunday looks to be our driest day and we could reach the 90 degree mark for the 1st time this year.  Shower chances increase again on Monday & Tuesday with a cold front bringing back the good feel air for late next week.   Until then we’ll have to deal with high humidity with highs almost hot.   Enjoy your weekend!

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Stormy At Times...

Almost on cue, with big events this weekend, our dry, good feel air leaves with the muggies returning.  Couple in a fast, active sub-tropical jet stream with many disturbances racing through and you have the potential for heavy T-Storms with the treat for some severe weather.  It appears the main threats besides heavy downpours are wind gusts to 40+ and some large hail.   There will be many dry hours on Friday with the challenge being the timing of the storms that will roll though.  There will be more storms early on Saturday with a brief drying on Sunday before more wet weather returns next week.   With almost 9” of rain this month already, we could easily jump into the top 5 rainiest before May arrives.  Let’s pay attention during the next 2 days as we could see several Severe T-Storm Watches issued by the SPC.  The greater threat for severe storms hopefully will stay well north of Lake Pontchartrain.  Stay tuned!