Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Ahoy Grand Isle...Breckster Coming Down...

The Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo begins at daybreak Thursday and I'm  hoping we finally get a weather break.  Our observers on Grand Isle tell us they have been drenched with 8-13"+ of rain just this week !  yikes!  That can't continue as we need a good weekend to bring out the fishermen & bring down folks who want to hear great music & party hardy!  I'll be doing reports from Grand Isle on Friday hopefully catching some fish too.

Weatherwise, the upper low appears to be weakening and that should mean fewer storms the next 3-4 days.  When we don't have the clouds & storms, temps are likely to soar back above 90 which hasn't happened very often this month.  Another July cold front (#3) could come down for next week.  What a strange summer.  Stay tuned!   back on-air on Monday.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Upper Low Slow Go...

An upper low pressure system is slowly drifting across SE LA/MS tinight and we'll be on the "wetter side" of that circulation for Wednesday.  That should keep highs 90 or below with rain coverage 50-60%.  As the low weakens and drifts farther to the WSW, rain chances decrease Thursday thru Sunday with high temps increasing to the low to mid 90s.   Those kind of highs are typical for late July.  We have been up to 95 only once so far this summer.  Compare that to our hottest summer (2011) when we already had 28 days of 95+ with 2 of those above 100 !  Wonder what could be causing our cooler summers?   Hummm

In the Tropics, tonight's satellite loops show a burst of T-Storms near the small tight rotation of TD # 2.   NHC still says this will not become Bertha since 1) it is surrounded by very dry and and 2) it is moving into an area of higher wind shear.   They expect it to dissipate in a day or tow.   Long range computer models show another unusually deep east coast upper trough developing next week that 1) will protect us from any tropical activity (none expected) and 2) shifts the threat for tropical development east of Florida much like when Arthur formed from an old cold front.  What I'll be watching is whether next week's front is strong enough to push into the Gulf by midweek and whether the western end tries to spin up a rotation like back in August of 1983 (Alicia).  Stay tuned!

Monday, July 21, 2014

Bertha not Quite Yet...

Tonight's satellite loops still show a well defined circulation in the central Atlantic but there are few T-Storms around it.   Water Vapor indicates lots of dry air is just to the north and ahead to the west so TD # 2 will struggle to retain its identity during the next 2-3 days.  None of the computer models develop it so I think Bertha will have to wait...unless NHC needs to get the total number of named storms higher?   The longer range models develop yet another unusually deep east coast trough that 1) might bring us our 3rd July cold front & 2) could result in a storm forming along the east coast like Arthur back on July 1st.   The trough would protect us so, at this time, I am not worried about any tropical threat here for the rest of this month.  August 10th begins the HEART of the hurricane season through about Sept. 30th so we'll have many weeks yet to pay attention.  Stay tuned!

In the short term, our weather this week will depend on the position of a cut off upper low that is nearly stationary over central Alabama.  We should still be on the dry side of it for Tuesday with rain chances below normal (30%) and mainly during the PM.   IF the low shifts to our west, looks for higher (50-60%) chances for Wed-Friday.

Bertha being Born ?

Well, Just as soon as I say NHC is bored, walla, the 10% of a weak wave developing has soared to 705 this afternoon as the wave clearly has a swirl/rotation.   It still has dry Saharian air to its north, but there is little shear ahead of it so it just might be named later today.   It is 4 days east of the islands and no where near being a problem for anyone right now.  Stay tuned!