Thursday, October 23, 2014

Octoberfest at its Finest.

Our current dry spell is 10 days and that will continue until sometime next week.   With high pressure building right over us, the next 2 days will be fantastic to be outdoors.  Clear, cool mornings give way to sunny, warm afternoons with not a lot of wind.  Humidity will remain low & the air will feel great.  By Sunday you’ll start to notice a different feel as moisture will return along with warmer temps.  That Summer-like feel will last for much of next week where daily morning fog could become an issue.   The next front won’t arrive until Wednesday or Thursday & it will not be a strong one.   A few showers could accompany it but don’t  expect widespread heavy rains.

 

 

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Getting Cold Up North

We are still in October but sub-zero temps are already showing up across northern Canada making the Polar Bears very happy!  My friend at WeatherBell Analytics, Joe Bastardi, has updated their Winter Outlook and he is indicating it will be as cold or colder than last year, plus very snowy perhaps even down to us!   Yea I’m just trying to get you pumped for the coming chill as you know how much I hate the cold.    It appears our 1st “brutal” cold arrives during the 1st week of November.

 

NHC downgraded TD 9 into just an area of low pressure that is just a rain maker tonight.   Our weather really is coming around a Nor’Easter parked off the Long Island coast tonight.   Cold rain & wind are making for a miserable night from New York to Boston.   Cool, Dry air is rotating around that low push all the way down into the southern Gulf.   We should enjoy another 2-3 days of cool nights & mild days before a warming trend returns for your weekend.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Hanna In Gulf...So What!

Just when you say something won't happen, it happens.   NHC sends out a plane that finds a well defined circulation over the extreme southern Gulf this afternoon with wind speeds to 35 mph, but it does not make it a Depression or named storm.   Tonight, based on satellite pictures, NHC says TD # 9 has formed and will probably become Trop. Storm Hanna on Wednesday before reaching the Coast of the Yucatan.   If we were still in August or September, we might have reasons to be nervous.  But since we are in late October and winds are roaring out of the WSW across the central & northern Gulf,  whatever forms tomorrow or later this week will not be allowed to move northward towards us.  In fact, as a Nor'Easter deepens along the east coast, a strong push of dry air could force this system south of Miami and not threaten Florida at all.   Several computer models hint that another storm might develop over the western Caribbean late next week, but we will be almost into November and more fronts will be coming.   Our Tropical season is over.

Locally, we are in day 8 without rain and that streak is likely to reach 12-14 before any significant showers arrive next week.  Clear, cool nights with warm, sunny days means great weather for outside activities.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Hanna In Gulf? Not Likely

We are now in the last 10 days of October and I cringe whenever I hear a local Weathercaster talk about a system in the Gulf we need to watch.   Can I say it again...OUR TROPICAL SEASON IS OVER!   Can we get a late season storm in the Gulf?  Absolutely, but the chances of it impacting Louisiana are NEAR ZERO.  For instance, we do have a weak disorganized circulation down over the Bay of Campeche.   NHC is giving it a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days.  But have you looked at the upper wind pattern predicted for the rest of this week?  A deep East Coast trough is expected to trigger an early season Nor'Easter that will keep a northerly flow across us and steer anything that might form over the southern Gulf towards Florida or Cuba.   It will not and can not be our problem.   So relax and enjoy this absolutely gorgeous spell of late October weather that should last through next weekend.  There are signs that a real shot of cold air will arrive during the first week of November.  Those longer Fall nights are beginning to show up in near zero temperatures across northern Canada.   I have my sweaters ready, and when necessary, I'll bring out the heavy weather gear for Winter.  You "Cold Air Freaks", get ready to enjoy your time of the year..  Once Christmas passes,  I'll be looking forward to Spring.