Wednesday, August 27, 2014

How I Hate August...

People ask me "what's it gonna be like this weekend".  Most of the year I can tell them with a degree of confidence what I feel will happen.  But then comes August where steering currents go into the dumper, water temperatures soar out of the cooler and forecasts depend on something that hasn't formed yet, may not form at all.  Computer models are clueless so I revert back to old school...looking for and indications on satellite and radar loops for any hints of development.  Such a swirl is 100 miles east of Brownsville, TX drifting slowly to the west.  Earlier indications had it moving inland so no problem....Hold on...RPM tonight's model run takes the system inland on Thursday BUT brings it back into the Gulf on Friday and heads it to the north.  It certainly looks like a TG or TS will form south of Houston.   Why am I concerned?   Because I don't put complete faith in computer models with weak tropical systems.   History has proved them to be more wrong than right.   What if this system drift farther to the east on Friday?  Or drifts farther to the west?   Vastly different impacts will exists for Louisiana.   So..."what's it gonna be like this weekend"?  Stay tuned!  it changes daily.   Can't wait for those September cold fronts!

August in the Gulf

Just when you think you know, you don't know & you may never know (Coach Mora) !  Yep, went to bed last night feeling confident that nothing was happening in the Gulf as all of the showers & T-Storms on radar & satellite views diminished and surface pressures were not falling.   Oh silly me!   With the Gulf's waters hovering in the upper 80s to near 90, the fuel for Tropical Development is at its usual August-September high.   So when we start receiving daylight (visible) pictures, whoa... what do we see?   A well defined swirl/rotation of LOW LEVEL clouds about 150 east of Corpus Christi.   NHC quickly has scrambled the Hurricane Hunters out of Keesler AFB to fly & see if something (Trop. Depression) is forming.   The good news for us is this system is drifting to the west.  The better news is it could bring some much needed rainfall to south Texas the next 2-3 days.  I'll have my usual update tonight.  Stay tuned!

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Gulf Settles Down...

Satellite loops tonight still show a weak swirl down over the northern Gulf south of Lafayette, but all the showers around it have diminished.    As this system drifts farther to the west, any risk for heavy rains here are least for now.   Our VIPIR model & RPM  show another surge of Gulf moisture will arrive on Friday, but for Wed-Thursday, we should see below normal rain coverage. 

Hurricane Cristobal will brush by Bermuda tonight, but it's circulation has brought very dry air down over the Northeastern Gulf.   We'll need to monitor this boundary, but Water Vapor shows a well defined Upper High has developed that should squash any shower formation.   Now if a low level swirl were to develop under an upper high...nah!  Unless something springs to life out of no where, this final weekend of "meteorological summer" should not see a tropical threat here.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Heavy Rain Potential Gulf Coast

Watching radar loops clearly shows a well defined circulation off the mouth of the river moving slowly to the west.  Several bands of heavy rains have developed around this system and it could mean for a wet start on Tuesday.  Whatever is likely to form should slowly drift westward towards the Texas coast taking the heavy rain potential farther to our west.   However, weak tropical systems in August have histories of wandering around the Gulf coast so we'll need to pay attention to this for the next couple of days.   Offshore buoys tonight show no signs of a west wind indicating that low pressure at the surface is not forming.  However, winds east of the mouth of the river have increased to 20-30 knots with seas 5-6'.  Stay tuned!