Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Storms Coming back...

On a "typical" summer day, we should see 30-50% coverage of scattered T-Storms.  Today we saw ZERO...NADA...Nothing.   Not just here but all over LA/MS/AL.  Amazing how strong this past front is/was. (AGW!)  The chill lingers tonight, but it will be gone by midday Thursday with increasing chances for rain as another upper disturbance approaches.   It appears a boundary will form along the Gulf Coast focusing slow moving heavy T-storms Friday thru Sunday.  Hope you've enjoyed this brief Fall preview?

Out in the Tropical Atlantic, satellite loops show activity picking up.  There are 2 swirls of low pressure to watch.  the closer in one has a flare-up of T-storms around it and NHC has a plane scheduled to investigate in once it gets closer to land.  It could become TD # 3 & then Bertha but it is struggling with dry air to the north and stronger winds shear to the west.  It certainly is no concern for us as long as we have the East coast trough creating a WNW flow over the northern Gulf that would steer anything well to our east.  Stay tuned!

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Maybe not Cold...but Nice for July...

When you consider we have entered, historically, the hottest part of the Summer, yet we find dewpoints dropping into the 50s & 60s with north winds, you want to ask...'what's going on?  September in late July?"   The pattern that started last Winter (upper east coast troughs) and has persisted through most of this Summer continues to bring cool fronts down into the Gulf.  IF this pattern lasts another 6-8 weeks, any strong tropical disturbance should be turned well east of Louisiana protecting us from any major damages.  However, we all know there are breaks in large scale patterns that could let a system sneak our way.  But RIGHT NOW I feeling confident that the major threat this season should stay over Florida and up the East Coast.  The well defined circulation out in the Atlantic last night is still there tonight, but it has no T-Storms around it.  NHC has scheduled a plane out to investigate it on Thursday and they still give it an 80% chance to develop into Bertha.   Models still indicate a track east and north of Puerto Rico & well east of Florida. There is another swirl off of Africa following behind this first system & we are nearing August so expect to see a ramp up in activity during the next few weeks.

Locally, we are enjoying early September temps as record cold morning lows are predicted from the Great Lakes down into the Deep South.  Our fling will be brief as reality returns by Thursday PM.  Stay tuned!

Monday, July 28, 2014

Another July Front, Tropics getting active...

In my 37 Summers living in New Orleans, I cannot remember this many (3) cold fronts pushing off our coast during the month of July.  The latest should be by before daybreak with much less humid air flowing in throughout the day.   July cold fronts aren't really cold, just less humid behind them which should result in cooler morning lows for Wednesday.   Later this week, we will return to the daily summer T-Storm pattern with slow moving storms producing briefly heavy rains with possible street flooding.

Out in the Atlantic, satellite loops show a well defined circulation that NHC is giving a 70% chance of  becoming Bertha maybe as soon as Tuesday.   Most computer models curve this system northward before threatening the U.S. east coast, however, it is far too soon to say we don't need to worry about it.  What I can say is this...IF Bertha goes into the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico & survives the mountains of Haiti/Dom. Rep., then we'll need to pay closer attention NEXT WEEK, not this week.  Bottom line, we have many days to track & watch whatever forms.  The predicted El Nino that was supposed to form & create shearing winds has backed off the past couple of weeks.   Stay tuned!

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Ahoy Grand Isle...Breckster Coming Down...

The Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo begins at daybreak Thursday and I'm  hoping we finally get a weather break.  Our observers on Grand Isle tell us they have been drenched with 8-13"+ of rain just this week !  yikes!  That can't continue as we need a good weekend to bring out the fishermen & bring down folks who want to hear great music & party hardy!  I'll be doing reports from Grand Isle on Friday hopefully catching some fish too.

Weatherwise, the upper low appears to be weakening and that should mean fewer storms the next 3-4 days.  When we don't have the clouds & storms, temps are likely to soar back above 90 which hasn't happened very often this month.  Another July cold front (#3) could come down for next week.  What a strange summer.  Stay tuned!   back on-air on Monday.