Back to weather...I state often that I want to be the "bullseye" on the NHC track at day 5. Most of the time that's correct as with Ike. NHC had Ike going east of Miami, then shifted him to Key West and now farther south off the Louisiana coast. The average NHC forecast error at 5 days is 305 miles. With Gustav, NHC nailed landfall 5 days out. As they admit that doesn't happen very often. Having said that, we remain in the forecast cone of error so even though RIGHT NOW it appears Ike may stay far enough to our south, it's way too soon to sound the all clear. As Dr. Masters said...."landfall is some 6-7 days away for the Gulf." I have a feeling we'll be tracking Ike all this week. We either want a turn to the north today or tomorrow or we don't want any turn and Ike keeps marching westward towards Mexico or Texas.
Regarding why Gustav didn't intensify when he passed over the loop current, an NHC forecaster told me they were all stumped. It appears dry air was entrained(wrapped) into the circulation. Bottom line...it's more than just water temperatures. I will still be on vacation tomorrow but will be back on-air on Tuesday. After working 17 straight days, I needed some down time. (remember Fay?) Ike is still 2+ days from reaching the Gulf. Let's hope the mountains of eastern Cuba knock her down some? Next update later this evening.
25 comments:
Thank you Bob.
Hope you are enjoying your vacation, and getting some rest. Looks like one way or another, you'll need it!
The folks here hang on your every word and count on you to help them understand in plain English what's going on.
Thanks for your take on Gustav weaking in the Gulf. To me, that's why it's important to remember that hearing ONE thing, doesn't mean that "loop eddy" or "Shear" or "model" should be focused on. The NHC and Bob put the whole picture together as best as they can.
We're looking forward to seein' ya Tuesday.
The force be with you, lol! Thanks again.
Stormzz
Thank You again.
Your words of hope contrast with the doom and gloom of other media.
Thanks for this blog and your hard work.
Seriously, for once, any criticisms toward Bob Breck regarding evacuation and prognostication are senseless.
Bob, like all meteorologists, is paid to do two things: relate the official opinion of the NHC and relate his own opinion. Both opinions are based on very good - but not magical - computer data, experience and historical records. Bob always relates the NHC information. He only sometimes adds his own opinion when it conflicts with the official line. He's probably as accurate when it comes to predicting these things.
Also, any criticism that Bob isn't cautious enough regarding evacuations is misguided. Remember - Bob was the guy who relentlessly alerted us of the possibilities of Katrina-like levee failures and worst case scenarios.
I've had a bad habit during Gustav and Ike of reading the commentary of amateur and semi-amateur prognostications on Wunderground, Accuweather and here. If you take those opinions very seriously you will become very depressed.
Squidhammer...
I appreciate and echo your sentiments. Just looked at Wunderground and Dr. Master's blog. Wow...folks look at satellite and see a subtle jog to the north over one frame, and start posting "It's moving north and is going to hit Florida."
Several of us are moving for a section with Meteorologists only, and another for amateurs.
When listening to Bob, don't forget that he has 30+ years of experience. He will not let you down.
Thanks for listening! :)
Stormzz
Thanks Bob. I do not have a bad feeling about this storm, however, I will still be on my toes (just in case).
Thanks for your work Bob, enjoy those days off. We had the prtable TV tuned to you while staging during Gustav, and really appriciated your skills and voice of reason.
Hopefully the NHC's track will be as good as with Gustav and send him to Texas/Mexico.
Thanks for for the great job you do!
Bob, At this projected path what will be the effects for La, (N. O. and the Baton Rouge area?
Bob, will be interesting to see what the 5 pm advisory says. Looks to me that IKE is creating a weakness in the ridge and trying to move a bit to the WNW?
I am not seeing him make the next forecast point....this is different from the models...what's your take?
Thanks,
Stormzz
Bob:
Thanks for the info. Because of your comments here, I paid the $10 and subscribed to the Weather Underground. Very informatiove website and easy to nagivate.
I also want to thank the WVUE news dept. for streaming the news feed over the Internet. I was in Memphis with a brand new computer running Microsoft Vista and was able to test all the cool things that Microsoft brags about in Vista and everything worked flawlessly. It was nice to see the news as it was happening.
You have made me a fan of WVUE news. Until now, I was a "three-letter" channel fan.
Phil Haase
I learned of this blog just prior to Gustov. I read the blogs then and I am reading them now. They gave and are giving me peace mixed with caution but not panic which I tend, as a lay person, to get each time a storm comes into the Gulf (since Katrina).Having been destroyed once in my life is one too many times, and I thank you for your caring and willingness to make sense out of the senseless as once again we deal.
Caveman believes that the wnw to nw jog we observed was a typical cycloid involving evolution of the eye wall. It appears to me the motion has leveled off to an average westward motion, and the track forecast by NHC is right on. If the "jog" had continued, the distance off for the 08/00 forecast plot would have amounted to approx 30 miles. We'll see how far it actually is at 08/00. Plus, the storm continues to clip along at 14mph or so, a slow down will occur before any major track change. At this speed, you can expect that will follow the gradual northward parabola as forecast. It's not following the NHC's track and there is a trough of low-pressure due to move into the gulf this week that I personally believe will force IKE E or NE before ever getting as far west as Texas.
The bigger the storm the harder they are to predict. They have a mind of their own and have not learned how to follow a tracking chart.
Enjoying your blog.
http://weatherworks.blogspot.com/
Please let me begin by stating that I've relied on your broadcast for as long as I can remember. I respect and appreciate you. I attended the Saints game today and was VERY disappointed with the commercial time your network spent on Hurricane Ike. As I am sure you understand, most of us were there to do what we do - root for our team. Bringing up Ike took away, at least for a moment, took some of that away from us. For what? I don't believe/hope that this was your decision. Please pass along this message.
Brandy,
I politely disagree.
The Superdome reminds me EVERY moment that I'm in it, of Katrina. I think that a lot of folks think about Katrina there...during Saints games.
It is helpful to me, and others to be informed. Information can set our minds at ease, instead of leaving us to wonder.
I understand what you are saying, and can appreciate why, but I am not sure that everyone feels that way.
Thanks...hey, and the Saints won! :)
Stormzz
I truly believe we are looking at a 50 mph storm in the GOM Tuesday night, and I do not think he will get it back together.
We do monitor the comments and when/if things get to personal we will delete.
Please don't post personal attacks on the blog. No one appreciates them. We don't censor the blog (for the most part) but we will step in if we have to.
Webmaster, BobBreck.com
Ok, so some of the storms don't behave, lol!
I'm just saying, it will weaken...but I think he'll come out just as forecasted by the NHC and strengthen again in the GOM
Thank you for your blog as this was the only website I could log on (the computer was very old).
I appreciate your comments, keep up the good work.
Howard
Yes, we do agree that Bob does NOT call evacuations, nor is it his job to do so. He tries to guide people on when they should leave, but NEVER issues evacuations. Sorry for any confusion...shouldn't have worded it like that in my first post(our first blog post EVER). We were extremely stressed out for Gustav, and now another hurricane that could possibly threaten the area, so you have to excuse....plus not being in Louisiana for a few years now, since Katrina. We thought that was how it was, until we actually stopped to really think about it...sorry for any misunderstanding:)
GOD BLESS YOU ALL!!!!!!!!!
Just reading...
Thanks fishinguy...God Bless You too!
...as for Ike...a lot could happen before eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast.
Let's remember the folks in Haiti and the Turk & Caicos...Cuba. They have/will take quite a beating from this fellow.
Nite all..
Stormzz
My brilliant daughter turned me on to you. You are the new Nash Roberts. Only person my mom listened to way back when. On the Northshore, all I'm hearing now is that you are the one to watch. I agree. Thanks for your tempered comments and the way you educate us on what is going on. --Melody
On the latest run of the models some of the more "reliable" models are now shifting Ike back towards the east and not as far west towards middle texas as the last runs. Won't be surprised if NHC changes Ike's forcast track.
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