I will not update my blog until Monday evening since I'll be traveling most of the day. If there was an immediate danger to us, I would fly back Monday morning. Thanks for all your comments. I agree with one comment about our video streaming this year. We stream the whole newscast, not just parts of it. There was a glitch when too many tried to access it, but that issue was resolved. Keep watching wherever you are.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Cuba being Clobbered...
As I get ready to sleep since tomorrow is travel day, I noticed the 7 PM model runs have now mostly shifted to our south & west. I hope this trend continues. As I mentioned yesterday, Monday is an important day. We'll know if Ike goes and stays over Cuba or if he stays just along the northern coast. The more over land the better for us. What I'll be watching is if the center goes south or north of Havana. North would signal a greater threat for us down the road while south should mean Ike stays far enough off our coast as to not be a problem. Regardless, we'll have plenty of time to react IF we need to since Ike should slow down.
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20 comments:
Have a safe trip home, Bob!!! We need ya in one piece to get us through Ike!!!
Summary of current possibilities for Gulf of Mexico and Ike.
There is a strong ridge of high pressure stretching from Bermuda to Florida that has today weakened over Florida. This may have allowed Ike to move mostly westward today, rather than just south of west. This high pressure is expected to rebuild over Florida, and Ike will continue his path around this high.
Ike will probably get into the GOM on Tuesday. That is when it is really crunch time for Texas, LA, MS, AL, and FL.
There is a predicted trough thought to be developing whose presence and strength will ultimately determine the path of Ike. I am trying to break down into simple English the two dominant possibilities, and then give an unlikely third possibility.
#1
Most of the computer models show the low pressure trough being relatively weak and the high pressure system extending beyond Florida being the dominant feature. This would result in a WNW track into Texas, and possibly SWLA. The National Hurricane Center is leaning towards this possibility, as of midday Sunday the 8th.
#2
Two of the reliable models (HWRF and NOGAPS) show the trough being stronger than the majority of the computer models. If the trough is stronger, it would likely influence Ike and pull him northward, once he is in the GOM. This would result in a landfall anywhere from central LA to the FL Panhandle. This is the minority opinion.
#3
The third possibility is a little bit of both of the above possibilities. That is the trough is stronger than the majority of computers predict (possibility #1), but not as strong as the HWRF and NOGAPS believe it will be. The trough would be a semi-determinant factor and would steer Ike slightly to the NW, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would put Louisiana at the most danger. This, however, is the only possibility of the mentioned possibilities that none of the computers are currently forecasting.
Feel free to use any of this breakdown, if you think it is accurate or helpful.
i think we should all get ready to leave its coming this way
Thanks for a good explanation laying out the possibilities that was more than just a "it's so far away that it could go anywhere...."
It seems like the model overall consensus IS becoming steadier as regards the track even while some individual models have shifted with the greater uncertainty being intensity.
Of course, let's hope for much weakening over the Cuban landmass.
However, what is story with ridging and is there likely to be any ridging in place at least around or near SE La. and the New Orleans region by middle to late week?
Somehow I can't imagine that whatever trough that there is going to be quite that strong. Later in the month maybe I can envision that but not now. However, what is a concern is the possibility of lack of ridging (if it's a powerful enough storm then wouldn't be more sensitive to weakness/absence in ridging even without a well-defined trough?)
The latest model seems to be holding up. Is it too much to hope for that it won't "wobble" much and stay on this path?
now what would be really cool is if fox8 could stream newscast or even segmented newscats that can be viewed on a mobile device. utilize youtube or something similar until y'all can get it going on your servers. or maybe just streaming audio feed?
Wow, thank you nolawxwatcher for that detailed and thoughtful analysis of the situation.
I would bring up the 18Z GFDL model, which shows landfall in central LA. By the way, it is very debatable as to whether NOGAPS is at all a reliable model.
To me, the bottom line is that we don't even know yet, what IKE will do over Cuba, and as for me, I'd rather see what we get on the other side before trying to figure out all of the possibilities...
Enjoyed reading your post!
Good night
...be safe traveling Bob!
-Stormzz
The latest GFS models, from which other dynamic models get their information, has a break in the high pressure ridge forming due south of NOLA. The trough is so pronounced, it picks up Ike and pulls him northeast to the AL/MS coast.
Expect a more easterly projection from the NHC by the time the morning rolls around.
In my experience, loyalty to any computer model for getting a track over the past 24 hours or for getting a previous storm track correct is foolish.
Relying on VIPIR for Katrina because it got Charlie correct was a bad choice.
But it goes for all the computer models.
Loyalty to computer models will make you look stupid most of the time. Go with trends and what the NHC says. The NHC is far more intelligent than any one meteorologist or computer model.
And it goes in reverse also. Just because one computer has not been accurate in the past or in the past 24 hours does not mean that it won't get this future 24 hour track right.
A trough that strong this time of year would be a shock. But the main thing is, I figure, to hope for some weakening over Cuba.
nolawxwatcher....
I was just making a statement, as I don't have a lot of loyalty to any models...I just use them, as a guide. The models will flip flop back and forth when 5 days out. Today, the consensus changed several times.
I do agree with you, that relying on models instead of all of the information is not a good choice. I'm not sure that I would call anyone stupid around here ;)
hundred oaks, I just looked at the water vapor and steering currents...and I agree with you! I think that the GFS is over amplifying the trough...
But, as the NHC said in their discussion:
"Suffice to say that it is simply too early to say what
portion of the Gulf Coast will ultimately be affected by Ike."
As I said earlier, I will start getting serious about this once he's coming off of Cuba. Until then, we should likely say a prayer for those who have been beaten up SEVERAL times this year...certainly, tonight!
Nite all..
Stormzz
The computer consensus now has #3 scenario playing out.
By the time most of you wake up, the NHC model track will have shifted a good bit eastward, toward NOLA.
What are the differences in the models, such as what info does one use that another doesn't etc.. Also, the US Navy has a model
(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html). Which one has got the best track record of being close or right? (say 4-5 days out)
"By the time most of you wake up, the NHC model track will have shifted a good bit eastward, toward NOLA."
Wrong! Scaremonger...
I'm awake and it is still going west.
morning all
Please re-read bob's words and wait. There is no reason to be afraid. The NHC does not make change quickly nor is this storm.
Relax...Bob will be back later. Have a good day
Stormzz
Scaremonger? Predicting that a 6 day track will shift shouldn't put fear in anyone's mind.
I am surprised, however, that the NHC has not shifted to the east because the model consensus that had it aimed for the TX coast shifted to the east. I am assuming the NHC didn't shift it east because Ike jumped Cuba into the Caribbean and is still on a westerly pattern right now, meaning that he will be further west when he does feel the trough.
All: The late night model runs, especially GFS turned the storm siginifantly, but this morning's model runs, including GFS, have resumed a westward track, which is reflected in the NHC track. I believe the GFS model run from last night overamplified the trough as was noted in several comments.
WRT to NOGAPS - NOGAPS is a navy model which does much better in large open basins but isn't particularly tropically inclined. The Navy is looking at revamping NOGAPS in a collaborative effort both in the US and abroad.
:-)
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