Monday, July 20, 2009

Tropics getting More Active...

As we head towards the last 10 days in July, we start to look farther out in the Atlantic for tropical activity. Several strong waves are heading westward with the first already moving thru the islands and into the eastern Caribbean. This wave will not develop as it will encounter strong westerly shearing winds for the rest of this week. The other wave looks better organized tonight, but it's at a much lower latitude (below 10 degrees North). Unless it shifts farther to the north, it will run into the north coast of South America later this week. Over the Gulf we still have a deep east coast trough that will keep any development away from us. Longer range computer models bring yet more east coast troughs later this week meaning we do not have to worry about any tropical storms here for the next 7-10 days. The longer this pattern hangs around, the better for us. In fact, it could mean some early season September cold fronts?

2 comments:

ONLYREAL said...

Yep,

97L is heading straight into 40+ Knot's of vertical wind shear. Some models indicate that a piece of energy from the wave may break off and head into the Bahamas where cyclogenesis will likely occur and the big trough you mentioned picks it up and rapidly ejects off to the northeast. Also, The environment off the East Coast is too baroclinic to allow it to become a full fledged warm core Tropical Cyclone. So no tropical development from that.

Now the other disturbance you mentioned is tangled into the ITCZ and it's likely no development will occur with it unless it manages to detach itself, but none of the models show this happening at this time. But what would happen if the models are wrong and it does manage to get out of the ITCZ? The answer to that is the environment in the Atlantic will still be way too hostile for any significant development to occur with it.

ONLYREAL

Wayne Watkins said...

Keep those east coast troughs a 'comin'!