It's More than Warm Water Temps...

Following Emily from afar, I have 2 observations. 1) Most of the computer models were awful (incorrect) in forecasting this storm. Only the ECMWF model was correct in not developing it. Lesson learned? If the tropical system is weak, most computer models overplay it. Once the system becomes a hurricane, the models do much better. That's why I don't get too concerned when a system has not been identified as a closed circulation. 2) Tropical development requires more than just warm water temps. Spoke several weeks ago regarding the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO). It involves high level winds around the tropics that rotates around the globe. There is a favorable phase that promotes rising motion and an unfavorable phase that promotes sinking motion. It appears we will enter the favorable phase after August 20th so expect an uptick in hurricane activity. The next 8-10 weeks are, historically, the most active so stayed tuned. The current pattern has a weakness(trough) along the east coast that should turn most storms east of Florida and a ridge over the Gulf South that should steer any Gulf system westward into South Texas or Northern Mexico. Let's hope that pattern continues.

In the short term, the upper ridge that has been producing the extreme heat will weaken and shift slightly to our west. That should allow more daily T-Storms that should keep us less hot. I'll be back on-air on Monday on FOX 8 at 5 PM.