Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Get Your MJO On...

Yep, it appears the MJO is getting to the favorable(rising air) mode over the tropics so expect to see us tracking several (Gordon, Helene,Issac?) systems at once during the next 7-10 days.  Ernesto is rapidly intensifying as the center has moved back over the warm Gulf waters, but it's heading west into Mexico and no threat to the U.S.  NHC has upped the probability to 70% that Gordon will form Thursday out in the open Atlantic. Another well defined swirl is right behind it moving off of Africa.  Luckily for us an unusually deep trough is developing along the eastern U.S. that will steer any systems coming across the Atlantic east of FL & up the east coast for the next 5-7 days.  We need El Nino to kick in increasing the shear across the Gulf & Caribbean.  Get ready for an interesting couple of weeks.

In the short term, this digging eastern trough will bring a cold front down to us increasing our rain chances for Thursday & Friday before drying us out for Sat-Sunday.  Expect some really strong storms the next 2 days.

2 comments:

Kell Naquin said...

Hope this front doesn't go into the gulf and turn into a hurricane.

Eric said...

Bob,,I live on the MS Gulf Coast. It seems the last few days the pm storms have been coming from every direction, North to South, South to North, East to West and today West to East. What is causing this day to day change? Is it just normal summer time flare ups?