Wednesday, January 28, 2015

We Were 90% Correct...Huh?

That’s what my friend Jim Cantore proclaimed this morning on The Weather Channel regarding last week’s Blizzard of ’15.    Sure there were snowfall amounts of 2-3 feet as predicted, however, the Weather Channel sounded the alarm when they said 70 million people would be affected by this storm IMPLYING that most would get 2-3 feet.  That’s why all the public officials reacted in unison, which ( I agree with Jim) ,  was a good thing.     However 60+ million people were not buried with 2-3 feet.   Perception is 90% of reality and The Weather Channel’s management must have felt the public’s displeasure as they devoted the whole day to repeating over and over how they were mostly right.     The lesson learned from this storm?     We forecasters must be clearer regarding the uncertainty of the computer model outputs…whether it’s a blizzard or a summer hurricane…don’t place all your trust in the models.   They certainly have been vastly improved during the past 10-20 years and will continue to get better in the future.  However, that’s why FOX 8 always gives at least 2 scenarios regarding the impacts of a hurricane…depending on the track of the storm.   That way the public will understand why the forecast didn’t verify because the storm track changed at the last minute.   Let’s move on…


Wow, what a Thursday we have coming.   70s in January?  Sure looks like it as Dallas hit 80 on Wednesday.  Our next front arrives before dawn on Friday bringing back the need for coats & jackets.   This weekend should be seasonally cool & mostly dry with a few showers possible by Sunday PM.

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