What has changed since yesterday? 1) We definitely have a closed low level circulation clearly visible on the daylight satellite loop that is totally EXPOSED, meaning there is an absence of any T-Storms around the circulation allowing us to see the swirl. 2) NHC has LOWERED their probability of formation from 80% down to 70%. 3) With a weak system, it is much more likely to continue moving to the west (90%) meaning it will reach the Gulf by Sat-Sun instead of turning to the north (10%) and staying up Florida’s east coast. 4) the strong surface winds (gusts to 50+) have decreased today.
What hasn’t changed? 1) The uncertainty of where it will go in the Gulf remains high as long as it stays weak. 2) No actions need to be taken until we have an actual named system. I’ll have more later this evening in my night blog. Stay tuned!