Not Much Happening...

I wish I could say we are “out of the woods”, “out of harm’s way”, “Nothing to worry about”, but I can’t just yet.  Here’s what we know tonight.  The weak center of this tropical disturbance continues to move west and will move into Cuba on Friday.  There are no T-Storms with it and very little surface wind.   It remains in a hostile environment and little development is expected for the next 2 days.  However, eventually it should emerge over the southern Gulf by Sunday and still could develop under much less upper wind shear.   So rather than say nothing to worry about, I’d rather say little to worry about tomorrow and Saturday.   The European model has totally missed the forecast so far with the American model doing much better.   NHC has lowered the chances for development from 80% yesterday to 60% tonight.   I like that trend!  However,  history reminds me that Camille was a weak wave until it reached western Cuba and we all know what happened back in 1969.  Too young?  Look it up as Camille strengthened into a Cat. 5 at landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast.   No I’m not saying this will be another Camille.  What I am saying is 1) we are now in the heart of hurricane season, 2) Water temperatures in the Gulf are 85-90, 3) Upper wind shear over the SOUTHERN GULF is less, 4) the rotation around the blocking high will bring any system towards the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast IF something forms over the SOUTHERN GULF Sunday-Tuesday.      So we do what we always do…wait & watch for any signs of organization.  Stay tuned!  But for now, relax.