Sunday, June 18, 2017

Still No Clarity...

Well 24 hours have passed and we still have total uncertainty regarding the cluster of storms in the Caribbean.   What we do know is that NHC cancelled the AF Hurricane Hunter flight this afternoon, always a good sign.   Visible  satellite pictures hinted at a weak circulation over the Yucatan Channel, but there were no T-Storms with it.  It appeared a better mid-level circulation was just west of Grand Cayman & some T-Storms have developed around that tonight.  Model runs for 93L are useless since their starting point is way off so their possible future tracks are highly suspect.   NHC has increased the chances for development to 90% meaning they have great confidence something will form.   I’m beginning to wonder if there is too much working against this disturbed area (north Gulf water temps below normal, wind shear axis over most of the Gulf) for it to develop.  The 2 scenarios mentioned the past couple of nights remain in play.  The European continues to say it will stay weak and head westward towards south Texas.  The American model moves the system northward closer to us, which could mean a heavy rain event later this week.   I am on standby to help the FOX8 Weather Team, but I’m not sure I’ll be needed.  Regardless of what does or does not develop, it is clear the system will be, at worst a Tropical Storm or, at best just a weak depression.  Remember, slow moving depressions can generate huge rain totals so we can’t just write this off yet.  Evacuations ( inside the levee protection system)  will not be necessary as none of the models make this a hurricane.   Again, we watch and we wait for more CLARITY  Stay tuned!


Today was another day that showed location is all important in the summer.  Kenner had 2 downpours at MSY with 1.30”.  My house in Metairie had zero.  What’s a forecaster to do?  That’s why I always liked to say…” it will rain SOMEWHERE on a typical summer day”.  Cheers & Happy Father’s Day to all Dads.

1 comment:

JS said...

First I would like to thank you for keeping us informed. I live on the lake in Slidell. Any idea of storm surge/winds?