There Is Great Uncertainty...

While I await the 10 PM advisory, let me give you my thoughts.   The daylight (visible) satellite loop showed a well-defined large circulation over the central Gulf with 3-4 distinct mini swirls rotating around it.  NHC issued a Potential Tropical Cyclone advisory this afternoon that allows them to post warnings before a storm is named.  At that time NHC said TC # 3 was moving to the north at 9 mph, however both Bruce & David on FOX 8 showed the mini centers rotating back to the SW.  At 7 PM, NHC relocated the center to the SW and said the system was stationary.  Immediately I knew the model track couldn’t be correct since Mother Nature wasn’t following it.  What do I expect NHC to do on this next advisory?  I don’t know since there are no storms forming around where the center is supposed to be, plus it appears there may be a swirl trying to form farther to the east where the T-Storms are.  I noticed the rain shield that earlier was heading towards us has stalled corresponding to the stationary motion NHC  says has occurred with the center.   The upper low over the western Gulf continues to supply wind shear that will hinder any development.  However, I do expect NHC to name this system just because they gave it a 90% chance for development.  Based on what I’m seeing tonight, the naming won’t happen until during the day on Tuesday.  Let’s see if the 10 PM advisory agrees.

 

OK it’s in and NHC has the system moving again towards the NNW at 7 mph.  Frankly, I can’t see that just by looking at the infrared loop, but NHC lives on consistency and they really don’t like to drastically change their guidance until it’s obvious they are incorrect.  What they did do is tweak the track forecast slightly farther to the west which doesn’t change the rain impacts for us as we stay on the wet side.   My thinking is this.  If the system is relocated after visible satellite loops and another hurricane flight tomorrow, this system could stay far enough to our south and west to not really have many impacts on us.   For sure, This will not be an evacuation situation for us.  The heavy rain potential is still there depending on the track and forward speed.    We should pay attention but not be alarmed.  My experience tells me computer models do not handle weaker systems very well.   Do not be surprised if NHC keeps shifting the track farther to the west as the European model has indicated for days.   I’m not expecting to be called back to work with this storm as the FOX 8 Weather Team has done a marvelous job of giving you the various scenarios.  Stay tuned!