Saturday, September 30, 2017

Nate Not Knocking Tonight...

The Tropics are dominated by upper level lows (hostile environments) with one just north of Puerto Rico and the other over the southern Gulf north of the Yucatan.  These lows should limit any development for the next several days as they create too much upper wind shear.   That doesn’t mean all will be quiet here.  A large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will interact with a westward tropical wave moving across the northern Gulf.  We already have seen the higher dew points return and showers are likely to develop Sunday, but especially for Monday & Tuesday,  Brisk easterly winds for the next several days will cause high tides and NWS is likely to issue a coastal Flood watch/advisory.   The 1st week in October will not be cool, but because of the clouds & showers, it’ll be less hot.  Models are still indicating the next REAL cold front should arrive the following week either on the 10th or 11th.   Most people who understand the UNCERTAINTY of the models beyond 5-7 days realize pinpointing the exact day that far away is beyond the skill of the models.  There is still time for tropical development before this front arrives so our “Fat Lady” is still driving around.   I understand her Uber driver is her brother so all expenses are kept in the family!  Stay tuned!

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