Models Appear Clueless...

As I pointed out in a previous blog, computer models have a high degree of UNCEETAINTY beyond 5 days.  For the past several days, the models have been all over the place with regard to possible tropical development in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf on days 10-14. That continues to be the case tonight with both the GFS (American) model & the European indicating a system will try to form over the weekend.  I’ve pointed out before that models do very well with large & intense( Harvey, Irma, Jose & Maria) systems, but struggle with smaller & ill-defined storms.  So we should not feel there is any need to be concerned until an actual system starts to organize.  What bothers me is these same models have been flip-flopping with our next real cold front.  Tonight they have backed down on the coldness coming plus delayed the arrival until the 12-13^th.  So what’s a fella to do when confidence with guidance becomes low?   Stick to the short term where we know a massive area of high pressure over the eastern states is creating a strong flow of deep tropical moisture off the Gulf.  I’ve been down fishing at Shell beach & the tides were as high as I’ve ever seen them.  Water was so deep over the road that only high water vehicles could get through.  This isn’t likely to change for another 1-2 days.  In addition, we had a weak disturbance rotate around the southern end of the high triggering numerous showers & storms.  While the airport in Kenner had less than an inch, much of the metro received 3-5”+ causing lots of street flooding.   Drier air is filtering around the high and that should make for more sunshine and warmer temps for the rest of this week.  But beyond Friday?  Let’s wait to see if tomorrow’s model runs produce less confusion.  Stay tuned!