With Jose back to a Cat. 1 Hurricane and 96L & TD 14 showing signs of circulation, the tropical Atlantic is staying active. Jose has entered a low shear environment and could get back to a Cat. 2 hurricane before it moves over colder water farther to the north. The main question with Jose is how close to the coast will he come? The official NHC track turns his center to the NE soon enough to keep the brunt of the storm offshore. However, NYC & Long Island over to Boston and Cape Cod all are within NHC’s error cone (uncertainty) and several models suggest it could be closer to the coast. As we saw with Irma, a slight shift in the track has huge impacts so if you have travel plans anywhere to the major cities up there, pay attention to Jose as he could impact your travel plans. The focus should be on Jose for the next 3-5 days.
Way out in the Atlantic T.D. 14 doesn’t look very impressive but is predicted to become a tropical storm in the next 1-2 days. Farther to the west ahead of TD 14, Invest 96L has a much better swirl on Satellite Loops and it could beat TD 14 in being named Lee. In fact, models strengthen 96L and brings it into the islands this weekend before curving it to the north before it reaches the U.S. No model brings a storm into the Gulf near us for the next 7-10 days. Stay tuned!
I said in a past blog that trailers should be banned in coastal hurricane areas. Several took offense to that comment saying that is all poor folks can afford. My reasoning goes back to attending many hurricane conferences for almost 40 years. After Andrew in 1992, where many homes (not trailers) failed, the Florida legislature passed the strongest building codes in the nation in hopes of mitigating(reducing) the damages. I think it’s just common sense that, if you want to build in harm’s way, you MUST build stronger. Government cannot keep spending & rebuilding homes like in Houston, where I read one house has flooded and been restored SIXTEEN times! That’s nuts. It would be less expensive for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to buy out those folks and relocate them. We cannot sustain rebuilding property over and over again. Solutions to the problem? Here’s one, in places like Key West, the NFIP could build raised concrete & steel structures for low income housing. Those types of structures survived very well in Irma. That would be far better than paying folks to bring in new trailers that will be blown apart or away in the next storm. Common sense & government? Need I say more?