Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Tropics Going Nuts...3 Storms at Once...

Watching my blog & FB hits go through the roof tells me many of you have high anxiety regarding Hurricane Irma.  Let’s all take a deep breath, shake our arms & hands and go over what we currently know and don’t know.  As I have mentioned many times before, the hurricane models do VERY WELL projecting future forecast tracks and 95% of the models continue to bring a sharp turn to the north once Irma reaches central & western Cuba.  This will take the core of the storm either up along the west coast of FLA. (Bad for Ft. Myers, Tampa), right on up through the heart of the state or up along the east coast (bad for Miami & the Gold Coast) making second landfall in Georgia or the Carolinas.   We know a cold front will reach us and push down well offshore BEFORE Irma gets into the Gulf (if she even does) blocking Irma’s threats from us.  AT THIS TIME, it does not appear Irma will impact SE LA/MS. , but until she finally does make the turn (likely late Sat. into Sunday) we wait & watch.  My only concern this afternoon, watching Nicondra show the IR satellite loop, is that firm westward motion that has increased slightly up to 15 mph.  This current track will take Irma right over Puerto Rico & Hispaniola, very mountainous islands that will greatly impact Irma’s circulation.  NHC’s centerline keeps Irma just north of the islands and that is why they don’t lower the intensity.  Let’s see what happens in the next 1-2 days.  We’ll either have a Cat. 4-5 heading towards the Florida Straits or a much weaker Cat. 1 hugging the north side of Cuba.   Either way, the models project a radical turn to the north.  So there is still very high UNCEETAINTY on which side of Florida gets the greatest impact plus how bad the impacts will be.  That will depend on the intensity of the storm which will depend on the reality of Irma’s track.  Florida’s low lying coastal communities are ready to evacuate inland.  Cities like Orlando & Gainesville are far removed from the storm surge threat.  There the concern will be some high wind gusts (power outages) and 5-10” of rain.  None of the models forecast Irma to stall and she will not be like Harvey regarding the heavy rain totals…5-10” for most, 8-12” for some and 10-15” in isolated spots.  Inland communities DO NOT evacuate because they would interfere with those living along the coasts who need to flee the water.  The time line brings the worst into South Florida late Friday, moving into Central Florida for Saturday & on to north Florida on Sunday.  From the many videos I’ve seen, most Floridians have already stocked up on water & supplies & gas.   Even though I don’t see any way Irma comes here, I suggest you make sure your car is fully gassed in case we would need to make decisions early next week.

 

Elsewhere, TD 13 has formed in the Bay of Campeche and could become Katia, plus Jose is churning way out in the Atlantic. Neither will impact the U.S.    I remember once year we were tracking 4 or 5 named storms at once.  To have 3 as we reach the peak of the season is no big deal.  But all this activity is making folks nervous and it’s my job to keep the calm.  When you see me appear on FOX 8, then you’ll need to pay attention.  For now let’s watch and pray for the folks in Harm’s Way.  Stay tuned!

8 comments:

Unknown said...

Thanks for the clarity, Bob. You're the only Meteorologist I've paid attention to for many years. Eric from Biloxi.

André said...

Dear Mr. Breck,

Thank you for continued blog posts but I particularly think it helpful to many of us who perhaps are feeling a bit too much angst regarding Irma when the preponderance of the information suggests that we are not likely to be its eventual target. We greatly appreciate your years of experience and knowledge you bring to us during these stressful storms.

I have a question that I would like to have you respond to based on your comments the past two days about citizens being far enough inland (e.g., Orlando) that they should shelter in place and wait out the storm rather than evacuate. As a resident of Hammond in an area that (to date) has never flooded, is north of I-12, I believe is over 40+ feet above sea level, and not really near the coast (although I would suppose would be about 10 miles from Lake Manchac) would you similarly advise staying in place in the event of hurricanes heading in our direction? Is there a size hurricane or direction (or other factor) that would affect your decision? (We have a natural gas generator and supplies at home as well).

Being a former New Orleanian, I hear a storm is coming our way and I evacuate (traffic, expense, etc...) and I am wondering if I should rethink this and instead stay put and allow more room for others on the road and in the hotels.

Your thoughts on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

André

Unknown said...

Thank you Bob I like the way you always calm my nerves about the weather. We sure do miss you. If only the others could do as good. But they are learning.

Pompo/Webmaster said...

Anxiety is high indeed! Thank you Bob!

Jonathan Bailey said...

Bob,

I just want to say thank you for all that you do with this blog. You're a voice of reason, someone I can point to when others are panicking needlessly and someone I trust for balanced information about the threats we face.

You're doing more than you realize to keep this city both sane and accurately aware of what's going on.

Cmroma said...

Thank you for your calm tone and cllear explanation of the situation, Bob. This certainly is reassuring for NOLA residents.

Unknown said...

Good to know you have our back, Bob, and if it gets bad, they'll bring you back. (I keep telling people I'm not going to worry unless Bob's back on the air!) Either way, I do miss your positive explanations to "your gang," as you always have a calming influence on us.
Thank you for everything you do!

Francine Howard said...

Thanks I was waiting on you to appear on the news and I was going to pack my car up and head outta here.......