When I retired nearly 2 years ago, I know I disappointed many of you because you trusted me during hurricane season. I get that. I worked hard to earn your trust. That’s why I was happy that FOX 8 hired David Bernard to be my replacement. I knew David was a lot like me. Not afraid to go against NHC models if they looked wrong, not afraid to point out and explain the dangers a far off storm might bring. Tonight, if you watched David’s broadcast on FOX 8, you can understand my comfort level with him. He clearly explained why the storm will not come our way and why Florida will get the major impacts. The only issue now is nailing down which side of Florida Irma will go. What I’m seeing tonight is a shift back to the east for most of the models. Irma has begun a slight shift from due west to WNW. That should keep most of her circulation away from the mountainous islands allowing her intensity to stay Cat. 4 or 5 until landfall. The Euro makes 1st landfall on the north side of Cuba while the GFS is taking a track just offshore along the east coast of Florida. It will make a HUGE difference for Florida depending on the track. Worse case is coming off Cuba heading northward making landfall near Tampa. That would place most of the state under the strong side(east) of the storm. IF the track would stay just offshore along the east coast, the worst part of the storm would remain offshore. There will be major impacts regardless, however, the west coast track would spare the “Gold Coast” from major damage. It’s still too soon to know which side Irma will go. What is becoming more certain with time is the turn is coming, a front is pushing off our coast and that front will be the avenue/weakness between ridges that allow Irma to go north and not west. Evacuations will begin over South Florida for coastal locations and the Keys tomorrow. More evacuations farther north along the coast will begin on Friday depending on the track. Inland locations have elevation and can shelter in place. Power outages will be widespread and could last for days. Unlike Harvey, Irma will not stall so rainfall will not be the main issue. Her wind damage will surprise many although Florida has the strongest building codes in the nation. Let’s hope that allows many structures to stay intact. Stay tuned!
Our excitement should be our 1st real cold front since early May arrives tomorrow PM. We will enjoy several days of low humidity with lots of sun and warm, but not hot temperatures. Night time lows on the North Shore could even dip into the 50s. Next update in AM or Wed. PM
5 comments:
Thank you and we miss you!!!
We love you in new orleans bob and I love our fox 8 crew.
Bob, Many of us grew up watching you and having faith in you. After Nash Roberts, everyone around here grew up trusting you. I think it is wonderful that you finally got to retire and I seriously hope you enjoy your retirement. God knows after what you have been through, you deserve it. David Bernard is a great meteorologist, but it is going to take people around here a while to get use to him. Besides Bob, David has some awfully big shoes to fill, especially after hurricane Katrina. I am sure everyone in New Orleans will grew to have faith in him, as we grew to have faith in you, after Nash Roberts. Until then, please be patient with all the New Orleanians who grew up with you and enjoy your retirement.
I moved to New Orleans when I graduated from HS in 1997, so I did not grow up here. Nevertheless, I grew to trust your weather reports, and it was because of your candid reporting that my young family evacuated the city ahead of Hurricane Katrina. I watch the news, but as long as you share your thoughts online, I will follow you and your advice! Thank you for continuing to do your work on this blog. It really means a lot!
I started seeing some of your wisdom in him not too long, ago! Thank you again Bob!
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