Friday, October 6, 2017

Hurricane Warning Now Includes NOLA...

I don’t have much good news about Trop. Storm Nate.  NHC’s latest centerline track has shifted slightly back to the west from Pascagoula earlier to Biloxi.  This is why the Hurricane Warning is extended to cover all of NOLA.  We will still be on the weaker side, but any further shift back to the west will mean far greater impacts for us.  The Mississippi Gulf coast will definitely be on the stronger side while areas west and north of New Orleans will see much less in terms of wind & rain.    Frankly, this storm is likely to come too close for comfort for us.   Know this, Nate still hasn’t reached the Gulf and the final track could shift 50 miles either way.  His satellite presentation is becoming better organized and there still is the potential for Nate to become either a Cat. 2 or 3.  No computer model indicates that RIGHT NOW, but he will move over the Gulf warm loop current during the day on Saturday.  What I’ll be looking for is how far west the center goes before making the turn to the NE.  If he gets to 90 degrees west longitude, then we’ll be in for the full brunt of the storm.   NHC believes he’ll turn before then keeping the worse impacts east in MS/AL/FL coasts.   At this time, I’m going to get up early (7 AM) on Saturday and access the most recent model runs.  IF the track is farther to the west, then I’ll quickly go close my shutters and move my potted plants inside.   This storm is roaring for a tropical system moving NNW at 21 mph.   If it gets bigger, it will be very difficult to make any radical turn to the NE.   I suggest you watch David Bernard as he is doing pretty much what I’d be doing for you.  His graphics are terrific and his explanations focused & easy to understand.   FOX 8 will be on the air at 4 AM Saturday so you’ll have time to prepare IN THE MORNING. By later in the afternoon, especially after 3 pm, you’ll need to be safely at your home unless you have work responsibilities.  No one should be outside after 8-9 PM.    Nate will not be like Katrina.  The fast forward motion will restrict the size of storm surge (5-8 ‘ east of the track).  Katrina had a top surge of 28’.  Nate won’t come close, thankfully.  Next update around 10 pm.  Stay tuned!

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