Mid Day Update on Nate...

The earlier trend of a shift in the model tracks to our east continues as NHC now suggests land fall will be somewhere from Gulfport to Pascagoula.  Since Nate is still down over the western Caribbean, I’d like to see several more model runs that confirm this shift before I feel really good.  As for now, I am not going to close my shutters and prepare my yard as there is still time to do that Saturday morning.  What we see from Nate is that his track has been more to the north than west and he will not go over any part of the Yucatan to weaken it.   Eye catching is his forward speed that NHC is 21 mph !!!  That means Nate will race across the warm Gulf and I don’t think that will allow him to rapidly intensify.   He should be at worse a Cat. 1 hurricane, perhaps a strong Tropical Storm.   Since the heavy rains won’t last very long, totals should be no worse than 3-6” with the greater totals to the right/east of the centerline track.   Right now that centerline has shifted to just east of the mouth of the river going into Mississippi near Pascagoula.  IF that proves to be reality, Metro NOLA will escape the brunt of the storm with the worse being from Gulfport to Mobile.   IF the eastward trend continues, the greater storm threat might extend on to the Florida beaches.   Our main concern appears to be rising water outside the levee protection (risk reduction) system.   NHC is suggesting a surge of 4-7’ might be coming which wouldn’t be that bad except the strong east winds all week have tide levels 2-3 feet above normal.  Add on another 7 feet and water levels  will become an issue.   So to recap, it appears that the center of Nate will stay to our east keeping us on the weaker side of the storm.   Next update coming around 5 PM.