Lack of Cold Air Result of Upper Air...

The driver of surface weather around the northern hemisphere is typically the upper level wind patterns.  Usually there are 4-5 "long waves" rotating around the northern hemisphere with many faster "short waves" in between.  This Winter has lacked in those more stable long wave troughs that bring down the bitter Arctic air into the United States. 

Notice how most of the U.S. is above freezing for late January.   It's still 35-40 below up in Canada, but I don't see any deep trough coming in the next 7-10 days that would bring that chill our way.

This morning's rains are now to our east and we are seeing a few peeks of sunshine.  However, you can see an upper swirl over Kansas that will keep some clouds around into Friday.  Saturday should be sunny before another fast moving system brings back clouds and showers on Sunday.  The Carrollton gage has topped 15 feet and should crest towards the end of the month around 15.5' .  Since there are significant falls on the River to our north, hopefully we'll get below 12 feet by mid February.   Of course, that will depend on future rainfall falling farther to our north in the coming weeks.  Stay tuned!