I really didn't want to post today since there isn't much new...until NHC put out their 8 PM tropical 5 day outlook They still highlight an area east of the Islands for possible development, but now include two new areas mainly based on computer model guidance. Satellite views have nothing there yet. But listen to the lyrics.
"here you come again, just when I've begun to get myself together, you waltz right in the door, just like you've done before...and shakin' me up so that all I really know is here you come again, and here I go!" We are so done with this year's hurricane season, and looking at today's Gulf oceanic Heat Content, I'm more confident we are done. 
The Gulf is much cooler and more fronts are coming during the next 2 weeks. Plus, it's getting really cold up north.
So why is NHC making us nervous? They're just doing their job as tropical activity will go on for many more weeks. But this late in the season, the threat is shifted to the Caribbean, Florida and the Bahamas. Note what the models are predicting 10 days from now.
The top two graphics are the GFS model on Oct. 24th with a low moving up over Cuba and then up the east coast never a threat to the gulf. The Euro on the bottom brings a system in from the east, again well east of Florida. So if you are nervous about these systems, don't be. Cold fronts are coming and we will be protected from any tropical threats.
Finally, the Wildfires in California are far fewer, however, look at Colorado. The smoke plumes spread out into the central plains. All of the West needs the rainy season to begin. I'll be watching the Tropics this weekend, but I am not nervous. The fronts are coming! Stay tuned!
3 comments:
Bob, I trust you completely. If you say we are done with storms this season, I believe you! Thank you for everything you do!
Bob.. keep the shivers coming. Got a lot of outdoor projects.
God Bless you Bob Breck !!!!
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