Goodbye Florida, Hello The Carolinas...

Ian was downgraded to a Tropical Storm moving across Florida, but now that it's back over the warm waters of the Gulf stream, NHC has again made him a Hurricane.  He is far weaker a storm since lots of dry air has circulated into his south side, but being back over water allows some time to regroup.  The latest track info has shifted the center line track slightly to the right/east.

You know the drill from watching Ian approach Florida.  Stay to the left/west of the center line track AND avoid the EYEWALL, you should be ok with only minor damages.  Charleston is now west of the track and that should mean less or little storm surge and fewer impacts if that eastward shifting trend continues.  Of course that would mean greater impacts east of Charleston and especially Myrtle Beach.

From satellite views, we do not see that donut hole look.  Ian is a far weaker storm, but he still could produce a surge of 4-7'+ east of that center line landfall.   That landfall will happen during the daylight hours on Friday.  I trust local officials have instructed all those at risk in low lying areas to get away from the water.  I'm hearing the death toll in Florida is at least 15.  Heed the warnings Gang!

Speaking of Florida, the videos I;ve seen are tragic.  The causeway to Sanibel & Captiva islands is gone.  It will take months to repair limiting access to the island only by boat.  Look at these pictures.  They remind me of after Ida.

The bottom shows the dangers of staying in a mobile home.   You can't stay when a big one comes.  But there's more...

If the wind didn't get you, a broken gas line will.  No fire fighters available during the height of the storm.  I almost feel a sense of guilt regarding what great weather we have.

With an upper tough over the East, a cool, dry Canadian high has settled over Michigan.  The circulation around Ian interacting with the high has driven the drier air off our coast & all the way into Florida.

That good feel air will help those without power & AC.

We still have brisk north winds, but they will diminish as Ian lifts farther away.  We have a beautiful weekend coming up.  Get out and enjoy it, but let us never forget prayers for our friends in Ian's path.  We were there a year ago.  Stay tuned!