NHC Increases Chances For Bertha, Watches/Warnings Later Today, Podcast This PM

 On their 4 AM Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC increased chances for development in the northern Gulf to 80%.  Translation...it will happen and and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will be issued by NHC later this afternoon once the Recon aircraft data is received.  The first plane is scheduled out after the noon hour so NHC probably won't start issuing advisories until after 4 PM CDT.

Those of you with computer knowledge of all the tropical website already have seen the spaghetti plots that brings whatever forms to Louisiana & Mississippi so I won't dwell on them.

What I will focus on during this afternoon's podcast is the structure of soon to be Bertha.

Clearly, T-Storms are not organized (yet) around what is becoming a better defined center.  RIGHT NOW, most of the storms are far away from the circulation center.  In the short term, today and Monday will continue very hot and mostly dry here.  The changes begin by Tuesday when the storm gets closer.  Here are some model graphics. The first are from Zack's morning program on FOX 8.

Certainly, IF this model is correct, all marine interests should prepare for winds 40-50 knots+ and a tidal surge of at least 2-3 feet.  I grabbed these model predictions from FOX Weather.

It's stupid to disagree with so many models focused together.  What are the bigger questions...where will the greatest impacts (Heavy rainfall) be?  and what wind impacts can we expect?  I will have my thoughts on this afternoon's podcast for my subscribers.  To see and hear me, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  

The cost is $2/month (one Powerball ticket!) and you get to hear my opinion.   You can go on line for free to hear the National Hurricane Center's discussion, but I will give you my take on what I see on my podcast.  We'll know much more later today after the plane gets into Invest 91 L.

IF the Euro model proves correct, most of the heavy rains will stay south of our coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.  As Zack mentioned on his program, whatever forms will not be strong or an "evacuation type" storm.  If you live inside our levee protection system, there should be few, if any problems.  I'll post again after 4 PM with the podcast to follow going into detail where the greater impacts will be.  Go sign up to hear "What does Bob think?"  Stay tuned!

Is Bertha Coming To Northern Gulf? NHC Increases Chances, Podcast Coming This PM

 Satellite views clearly show there is a broad circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/America.  NHC has designated this area Invest 91-L and they have started running the Spaghetti model plots.  My take is we must be careful and not assume these model solutions have much skill yet since we don't have a surface center and the initialization point is only a guess.  A Recon aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system on Sunday.  NHC now gives this area a 40%  chance to develop.

 

What I'm seeing is multiple mid level swirls with no concentrated T-Storms around them.  In addition, the water vapor loop has dry air to the north of this system and that should limit any rapid development. 

In addition, wave heights are NOT increasing telling me there still is nothing down on the surface.  But here are the first spaghetti plots issued on Invest 91-L.

With most models moving whatever is there to the NNW, the Euro model has shifted the heaviest rainfall father to the west away from Florida and closer towards us.  Is that reality or just a guess?  I'll give you my views coming up on my podcast later this afternoon. But to see and hear me, you have to become a subscriber for $2/month.

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  See you in a few hours.  Stay tuned!