Arthur Gone? Not Really, New Podcast This Afternoon

Those of you who are subscribers to my podcast heard me DOWNPLAY our overnight rain threat based on satellite & radar loops and the latest data from the WPC's (Weather Prediction Center) rainfall prediction graphic.  I mentioned the lightning down over the Gulf made me a little nervous, but I felt the WSW upper shear would take those storms south of our coast.  Well, I was wrong as those storms headed straight into SE LA with a band of 7-10" totals, causing widespread street flooding before daybreak.  So this afternoon's podcast will go into explaining WHY that happened.  Let's begin with the WPC's rainfall prediction (on top) from yesterday PM, followed by the reality of what actually fell(bottom view).

Clearly, the forecast rain map proved to be in error.  The reds & pink on the bottom graphic depict 6-10" totals with the heavier amounts staying just west of Orleans Parish.  So what changed from when I taped by podcast at 5 PM yesterday? Go rewatch yesterday's podcast, where I mentioned being nervous about the storms in the central Gulf.  I grabbed these radar views and follow the track of the lightning from these storms.  The time clock is at the bottom.

I obviously didn't expect those storms to come right over us, but all the lightning made me nervous that something was there.  So why did these storms come NNE instead of going ENE and stay mainly offshore?  This is just my guess, but look at the Water Vapor view from yesterday PM.

Did the upper lows moving across the Great Lakes dig a little deeper to the south, pulling up those Gulf storms towards the upper trough?  Perhaps, and that's what this afternoon's podcast will be about.  To see it, you must be a subscriber.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  I believe every weather event is a learning experience, and when I'm wrong, I want to know why.  My podcasts explain the WHAT & WHY and not just show you the forecast.  As we all saw, the rain potential graphic was flip-flopping with every model run.  But WHY?  Go sign up and learn about WHY the South Shore received the heaviest rains overnight.

Currently, I see several swirls on the visible view, the left one being the "DNA" from Arthur.   NHC believes there is a slim chance he could redevelop off the Carolinas this weekend.

Heavy tropical downpours will move across LA/MS/AL/GA this afternoon as there is a split in the upper flow enhancing lift.

We are not done with the rain today, especially north & east of NOLA.

The new WPC's rainfall prediction really focuses in on the North Shore & MS/AL/FL coasts.

 

The orange indicates another 4-6+" of rain.  Pay attention Gang.  Podcast coming up for subscribers shortly.  Stay tuned!

Is Arthur Reforming Farther To East? Shear Remains King

 While I await the 4 PM advisory from NHC and get ready for my next podcast around 5 PM, I thought I'd share what I'm seeing on satellite and radar.  First, on the visible loop, the old well defined exposed circulation along the Texas coast appears to have fallen apart.  I'm guessing, based on satellite & radar views, a new center is trying to form nearer the storms over the Gulf.  Here's what I mean.

The old center is the smaller L with the possible new center the bigger L.  Whatever, the WSW upper wind shear appears to not allow any surface center to get better organized.  Unless you look farther to the south where there is less shear and colder, brighter (reds) cloud tops.

Could that be where a new center is trying to form where there is also an upper high aiding the outflow?

I'm finding the models to be really clueless with this disturbance. So far today, the bulk of the heavy rains remain offshore.  Not sure what NHC will do, but if you want to see & hear more of my thoughts, go to bobbreck.com and sign up for my podcast.

It will cost you $2/month to access my podcast, but if you want more than what NHC & NWS says, then go sign up.  Next podcast coming after 5 PM.  Stay tuned!