Josephine Coming to Carolina East Coast? Guam Threaten, Great Cool Weekend Here

 I hope all my subscribers enjoyed the singing of "Turn out the lights, the party is over" on Wednesday's Podcast.  As I mentioned, the tropical threat is over for the northern Gulf.  It's not over for everyone as many models are indicating a strong area of low pressure will develop east of Cape Hatteras this weekend.  NHC seems uninterested, but FOX Weather & Weather Bell Analytics are all over it.

Many models (including GDM) are forming this low along the cold frontal boundary that will sweep through us overnight.  As I mentioned on my podcast, the northern Gulf is protected by fronts and history tells us we have never had a hurricane cross the Louisiana coast once into November.  

So while Texas, Louisiana into Mississippi have history on their side, not so much for locations to our east and south.  Here's the set up. An upper low is diving southward bringing the coldest air of the season into the lower 48.

The tropical moisture trying to stream northward over the Gulf will get swatted away by our first real front.  As that front drops off the East Coast, models are suggesting some type (tropical/sub-tropical/ winter-like) of low pressure will form. Even the WPC's frontal forecast has that for Sunday.

But NHC has highlighted no area of concern.  What's troubling to me is NHC is quick to highlight an area way out in the Atlantic or off of Africa for development (when it will impact virtually no one), but seems to ignore close in systems (Nor'easter 2 weeks ago) that will impact millions.  Impacts are impacts regardless whether they are tropical or sub-tropical.  Let's see if models are on to East Coast development this weekend.  Our focus is on this first REAL front for us coming tonight.

In the morning, you will need a sweater or jacket as the air will feel colder and much drier.  20 & 30 degree dewpoints are heading our way.  With surface winds of 20-30+ mph, the feels like temps will be in the 50s!   Burr!  I hate cold weather but will suck it up to get rid of hurricanes.  There could be a brief shower as the front slides though before midnight.

I watered all the potted plants around our Copeland Tower pool as the strong north winds will quickly dehydrate and wilt our flowers.  You should too.

Some folks on the North Shore will see some 40s for Sunday morning.  The cold won't linger as we're back 80+ for next week.  Now for my fishing trip.  The weather was beautiful, the sunrise awesome, the tides perfect for catching fish, but...Captain Hylton Petit (front) & Valerie (soon to be Mrs. Breck) were trying hard, the fish would not bite.

That yellow pole is the NWS Shell Beach weather buoy with all the birds looking for a free meal.  I wish I could have shown you what we caught.

No this is NOT from yesterday but a past successful trip..  Here's one of my fish from yesterday.

Yes, I did throw him back!  Totally, we caught 13 keeper trout & one 23" redfish.  A bad day on the water is better than any day at work!  We need more cold fronts to get the fish into the deeper holes where they'll school up and be easier to find.  The fronts are coming Gang.  Go get your Fall wardrobe ready as the chill is almost here.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!

Summer-like 2 More Days, New Podcast Tomorrow, Turn out The Lights!

 Maybe it was my 2nd glass of chardonnay last night, but did anyone see any weathercaster at 10 PM talk about the dense fog we had this morning?  Just me, but I was shocked to see how dense and widespread it was.  NWS finally put out a dense Fog Advisory after the fact and many morning commuters had to deal with slow travel conditions. As the fog started to lift, it was a pretty view from Copeland Tower.

Expect more of the same for Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  In fact, the next 2-3 days will not change much, meaning near record warmth with very slim rain chances.  That won't change until the upper pattern changes and that happens for this weekend.

The current upper high over the Southeast will shift east of Florida with the current trough over the Rockies redeveloping over the eastern states.  Note it's not a deep trough, but it should be enough to bring us a real cold front.  Right now, there is no front near us.

The summer warmth extends up to St. Louis, but look at the chill over the western states.  Some of that chill will be here for Friday night into Saturday.

WPC positions the front just to our NW for Friday morning and we'll really start to feel it for Friday night into Saturday.  It won't last but a day or two, but it will be a welcomed change.

You can see the return flow off the Gulf rotating around the surface high over us.

Even though it will be too warm, I'm going fishing with Valerie & Captain Hylton tomorrow & Thursday. I will have a new podcast on Wednesday, but you have to be a subscriber to view it.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  It will feature "turn out the lights, the party is over" on this hurricane season.  FOX Weather was talking about that today.

They were a little wishy-washy on saying it's over, but for the northern Gulf, I'm saying it is.  They also compared the Google Deep Mind AI model to what the actual track for Isaias turned out to be.  It was amazingly correct.

The bottom view is the GFS AI (Not the GDM) that does try to form a system off Florida's west coast on Thursday Oct. 29th.  I'm thinking there still might be 2-3 more named storms, but because of the coming fronts along with wind shear, out tropical threats should be over.  Come join the fun on my next podcast for tomorrow.  Stay tuned & I'll post my fish stories on Friday.