Models Predicting Snowmageddon From Texas To Carolinas, For True?

 I thought I was pretty clear yesterday that I "hitched my wagon" to the GFS (American) model that brought us into the Artic air, but kept us dry behind the front.  I pointed out the reason was the "axis" of the upper trough was to our east and not to our west.  Those who follow FOX 8 saw Bruce show the GFS model flip last night and that continues with today's run.  IF models are correct (remember it's still 3-4 days away), the Gulf South will shut down from Texas to the Carolinas on Tuesday.  Look at these forecast snow totals from the GFS followed by the Canadian. The pink colors are 10"+ totals !!!

The Canadian goes nutso with 8-12" from eastern Texas across LA/MS/AL into Georgia with 1-2 FEET  over eastern GA,SC into NC!!!  Can this happen?  Why?  Well, let's look at how the upper air forecast has changed.  The Polar Vortex is still plunging southward.  We begin with today showing the flow straight out of Canada.

The coldest (50-60+ below zero) air remains over Russia/Siberia, but note how Alaska & eastern Canada keep getting colder.

So with all that bitter cold sitting just north of our border, what does the upper flow do?  The top graphic is valid for Sunday morning with the vortex dropping over Hudson Bay. Clearly you can see why we will get very cold with a multiple night freeze threat coming.

But now see the difference from yesterday's GFS run.  The middle is valid for Tuesday AM with the bottom for Tuesday PM.  Notice that the "axis" of the trough is to our WEST producing an over running condition for all of the Deep South.  Look, my wagon is hitched to the GFS so I must go with 3-5"+ of snow across the North Shore and 1-3"+  south of Lake P.  I do realize that you snow geeks are unforgiving.  If we call for snow, it better snow!  Hard to go against ALL models.  Based on what I saw at the stores today, panic has already set in with folks stocking up on food and supplies.  I will ready my yard tomorrow for the freeze coming next week.

I want you to know IF we do get a deep snow cover, those freezing lows will be worse, possibly 15-20 on the North Shore and 20-25 South.  Yikes!  In the short term, enjoy Saturday's warmth.

Remember to watch the temperatures in Denver, Oklahoma City & San Antonio.  Those will be key indicators regarding the intensity of our cold air.  Just to throw out a possible scenario.  The cold air isn't as deep & is slower in arriving leaving us with temps  at 34 degrees on Tuesday with a cold rain.  Bummer!  Schools are already closed.  Bring on the snow!  Stay tuned!

Polar Vortex To Bring Down Cold, Southern Snow Storm Less Likely

I enjoyed watching Bruce Katz last night as he laid out the various scenarios that could happen with the coming cold blast.  As he explained, confidence is HIGH that Arctic cold is coming with several mornings next week that will have freeze issues.  However, he explained at 5-7 days out, confidence was LOW that any snow/ice problems would develop for us.  Today's models have confirmed that low confidence as the trends have been for drier conditions behind the Arctic front with no overrunning precipitation.   So the first question should be How cold will it get?  First off, the upper pattern must change as we still have a mainly west to east flow across the southern states.

The Polar Vortex is centered way north of Hudson Bay where the air is 20-30 below.  So let's track the model forecast for that Vortex beginning with Saturday morning. As you can see, the Vortex starts to move southward.

By Monday morning, the Vortex has sunk to just north of Lake Superior.  Notice the flow to its west is straight out of the North Pole and that is why confidence is high that the bitter, freezing cold is coming. So why is the chance for snow so low? Look at the "AXIS" of the upper trough for Wednesday morning.

It has pushed to the Northeast with a NW upper flow over us.  For us to get snow once we're in the cold air we need an upper SW flow.  Geez, just watched TWC showing all the model solutions for snow and it was almost comical.  C'mon, just say model solutions have conflicting information.  I try to show you why (IF the GFS model is correct) we will get cold, but we won't see much, if any, frozen stuff. Don't try to just hype your ratings by giving the snow geeks hope.  It may snow here & I might win the Powerball tonight!  So back to the cold.  Where is it? Not over the lower 48 as Denver is in the mid 50s with even Montana in the 40s!

The Super cold (50-60 below zero) remains over Russia & Siberia with no signs yet coming across the Pole.  Northeast Canada does have some cold (20-30 below) and that is what will begin coming southward with the Polar Vortex.

For the freeze to reach us, it has to get much colder in the states to our north.  What I have seen is the melting of the snow cover across Oklahoma, Arkansas & Tennessee.

I'll be watching cities like Denver, Oklahoma City & San Antonio as an indicator of how cold will we get?  Whatever the severity is, it's pretty certain the duration will cover most of next week.

I pretty much agree with the FOX 8 numbers.  18-22 for the North Shore means a hard freeze with full precautions Sunday night through Thursday.  28-33 for the South Shore hopefully means we will have no pipe issues, but those numbers could go lower. In the short term, we have a nice Friday & Saturday ahead with a Spring preview.

We could see a few showers early on Saturday.   All my plants are outside enjoying the milder weather.  I'll make the move into my heated shed on Saturday.  Finally, what a wonderful evening to visit 3909 Magazine Street (Degas Gallery) between 6-8 PM and see some of my wife's artwork.   I'll be there sipping some bubbly & tasting some snacks.  Come by and say hi.  Stay tuned!