New Podcast just Published, Western Gulf Still Stormy, Models Not Seeing Anything

 Yesterday I mentioned an area over the Western Gulf  that popped up with a cluster of T-Storms.  They have persisted again today, but NHC hasn't highlighted it since computer models appear clueless.  Until the models show it, NHC isn't concerned, nor should we.  I point these things out as information as to what I see looking daily at satellite loops.

Until I see wave heights increasing over the SW Gulf, I know nothing is developing.

An upper low is moving over the Bahamas, but the Tropics should stay quite for another 10-14 days +.

Today was another basic summer day with daytime heating storms popping up along the sea breeze boundary.

WPC is indicating by late this weekend, a weak frontal boundary will sag near us increasing our rain chances.  Their 7 day rain totals are quite impressive.

The main result should be temperatures staying not as hot.  4-6" spread over 7 days should be no big deal.

Super Typhoon Bavi continues to weaken now down to a Cat. 2 storm.  There will be some impacts

to northern Taiwan & China, but this is not the same beast that crossed the Mariana's two days ago.

Remember, to hear more about our Hurricane Season forecast, go to bobbreck.com and sign up for tonight's Podcast.  Two weeks from today the International Grand Isle Rodeo begins.  Come on down to the island and fish with this year's President Liz Murrill and our Admiral of the fleet Tab Troxler.

We have a line up of great local bands, plus daily children's crab races and wonderful food vendors.  In addition, your registration includes an opportunity for the Rodeo's Grand prize of $10,000.  Winner doesn't have to be present.  Go to tarponrodeo.org to register.  Stay tuned!

T-Storms Form Over SW Gulf, CSU Lowers Hurricane Numbers, Typhoon Bavi To Brush Taiwan

The biggest news today is Colorado State University has lowered the number of named storms expected this year to single digits.  The long term 30 year average is 14, but CSU now says we're likely to see less than 10.  Blame it on a developing super strong El Nino off of South America that should result in strong westerly upper shear across the Caribbean & Atlantic that will limit formation.  Here are the new CSU numbers compared to their previous ones.

I will go into more detail on my next podcast that will come out tomorrow.  To watch/listen to what does Bob think?, you have to go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

The cost is only $2/month to hear my thoughts/opinions that are based on what I see and not what NWS or NHC is saying.  For instance, NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) has no mention of any development for the next 7 days.  However, what is in the SW Gulf today?

Clearly, a cluster of T-Storms has formed, but NHC isn't talking about it since no model sees it.  At the very least, I see this area drifting northward bringing increasing rain chances later this week.  Actually, I see two clusters of storms that appear involved with upper lows.

It's information like this that you'll find in my podcast.  Go sign up before our next tropical threat comes.  Otherwise, it's basic summertime weather for most of the nation.

MSY received .24" inches of rain this afternoon cooling us down while Dallas topped 100 with no rain around them.

A look at the FOX 8 Extended Outlook sees a ramp up in rain chances for this weekend into next week.  Could that be some of the topical moisture down over the SW Gulf being drawn northward?

Finally, Super Typhoon Bavi has weakened down to a Cat. 3, but it's still a strong storm.

On the current forecast track, Taiwan would be on the weaker side of Bavi.  Let's hope this strong El Nino summer prevents any major hurricane from forming in our part of the World.  Stay tuned and go sign up for tomorrow's podcast!