No Dolly, MJO Stuck in 6, New Podcast Today

 In this amazingly quiet summer of 2026, Tropical Activity in the Atlantic Basin continues to struggle with development.  Invest 95 L is gone while Invest 96 L has a low level swirl but not much else.  There are many waves coming off of Africa, but models are NOT developing any of them except 96 L, which should become Dolly later this week.

All I can think of for causing this lack of activity is the MJO being stuck in phase 6, which is the sinking air phase for the Atlantic Basin.  We know the Caribbean has the strong westerly winds from the El Nino, so any system heading there will be blown apart.

  

The Saharan Dust layer is quickly decreasing so the limiting factor for development has to be the sinking phase of the MJO.  It does show signs of slowly shifting into Phase 7 then 8, but not until the second or third week in September.  Even the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has gone negative for future development.

For now, the Gulf & Caribbean are quiet.  IF we are to have a tropical threat in the next 6 weeks, it probably will be something that develops close in where the wind shear is less.

There are many clusters of storms either side of Florida, but nothing has any rotation.  Models for the next 10-14 days have NOTHING forming.  Today's podcast for subscribers goes into the lack of activity and why.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to gain access to hear what does Bob think.

As a subscriber ($2/month) you can go back and view previous podcasts.  A recent one talked about what is the MJO.  For such a low investment, the return information is priceless!  Locally, the upper East Coast trough persists with the upper Heat Dome over Texas.

There are disturbances rotating around the upper high.  SPC places us in the level two risk for flooding storms on Thursday.  Amber wheeler had these graphics at 4 PM.

The timing is different with the greater threat coming during the morning hours.

Rainfall could exceed 3-5 inches IF the model is correct.  Pay attention on Thursday as the FOX 8 Weather App will alert you if any warnings are issued.  A few storms are around today.

With more clouds and storms on Thursday, highs might stay in the 80s!  That would be nice.  Stay tuned!

Still Waiting On Dolly, Edouard, Heat Dome Weakens, New Podcast Wednesday

As we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season (Sept. 10), the tropical Atlantic continues to struggle to produce any storms.  We all know the Saharan Dust layer has been a factor along with upper shearing winds during this El Nino summer.  The dust layer is diminishing, but the shearing winds are not.  The average date for the 1st hurricane is August 11th with the 2nd hurricane occurring by August 26th.  That will not happen this year.   I am seeing 3 swirls out in the Atlantic & 2 of them might yet become named storms.

It would be a shame if NHC names the system north of Bermuda as it is racing into colder waters.  The system off of Africa has the greater chance to develop.

But satellite views indicate the lack of T-storms around a weak rotation.  Models do forecast development and this will probably become Dolly in another day or two.  

Most models keep this system weak allowing it to go farther to the west and not making the northward turn until getting north of Puerto Rico.  My next podcast will go into detail as to why we must continue to pay attention even though it appears the pattern is set for a re-curvature to the north away from the U.S.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

Some models even hint Invest 96 L (soon to be Dolly?) might go farther to the west.

One only has to remember Hurricane Andrew was making the turn to the north before shifting back towards the west eventually slamming south Florida.  We have almost 2 weeks to watch this system and I won't get nervous this far out.  Neither should you.  I found another interesting swirl just SE of Miami.

Models don't see it nor are the clusters of storms in the Gulf showing rotation.  We continue to see daily disturbances rotate around the Upper Heat dome over Texas.

Get rain, get cooler temperatures.

At least it appears the worst of this summer's heat is diminishing.  Now if only we can get some early season cool fronts once into September!  Stay tuned!