Fay Coming To Atlantic? AI Models Say Yes, Heat Dome Lingers

 On their 1 PM  T.W.O. (Tropical Weather Outlook), NHC has increased development chances east of Bermuda to 40%.  There is a definite swirl out there, but it appears to be more upper level than surface based.  None of the conventional models (GFS,EURO,CMC) have development, but the Google AI & Euro AI models do.  Let's begin with the wide satellite view and focus in on the area of NHC interest.

Any development will be slow along with forward motion so we'll have a long time to follow this system.  Here are the AI forecasts.

What I'm seeing is not much motion between this Wednesday & next Monday.  Looking at what's there right now and I'm seeing a rather hostile environment of upper lows.

In fact, I'm seeing a strong upper low (yellow arrows) with a weaker surface low (white arrows) near Bermuda.  IF something were to form, it's east of Florida and should make the curve north before reaching the East Coast.  There is an upper low over the western Gulf.

With the lingering upper high (Heat Dome) lingering over the Southeast, that low will be forced to keep drifting farther to the west into Texas.  There are signs that changes are coming later this month and that will be the focus of this week's podcast on Thursday.  To gain access to my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  

Fall has come to the Northern Rockies with temps in the 40s & 50s at midday.  A weak front coming down the East Coast could bring us some drier air here for Thursday & Friday.

Note the dew points in the 40s showing up over the Great Lakes.  That's a sure sign that fronts are getting stronger and it's only a matter of time before they arrive down here.  I love seeing the temperature contrasts on either side of fronts.

One side of the front has 90+ while to the north it's in the 60s & 70s.  Of note, today is the 50th day Dallas has reached 100 this summer.  Their record for 100+ days is 71, which appears to be safe for what's been a hot summer. Locally, we have a few storms around, mostly on the North Shore.

Locations with nearby showers are less hot.  No rain and temps are low to mid 90s.

IF this weak backdoor front makes it, we'll notice lower dew points which will result in cooler morning lows especially north of the Lake.  We still have another week of summer left until the Fall Equinox arrives on Sept. 22nd at 7:05 PM. We won't reach sweater weather until well into October.  Stay tuned!

NHC Is Bored, New Area Possible Development, Monday Grief Support

 It's been so many weeks with nothing to do that I think NHC is hoping something develops out in the Atlantic this week.  Looking at the satellite views, I don't see much there yet.  In fact, it appears there is a well defined UPPER LOW.  However, the MJO is moving into the more favorable (rising air) phases for development so I suspect we should see an uptick in activity in the 5-10 day time frame. The CPC outlook is on top followed by the NHC T.W.O. (Tropical Weather Outlook)

But if you look at the visible satellite view and the Water Vapor, there is nothing there except an upper low.

The white arrow is Bermuda so you get an idea how far out this area of development really is from the U.S.  Now the AI models are beginning to indicate the uptick in activity in the 5-10 day time frame.

The bottom view is the GFS AI at 2 weeks that has a storm/hurricane near Cozumel.  That probably won't happen, but it tells me it's way too early to write off this season until we start getting some cold fronts.  It's why you should be subscribing to my podcast that goes into greater details regarding what I think.  

The cost is $2/month and the information is something you don't get on your nightly weather programs.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Speaking of fronts, there is a significant front that has made sweater & jacket weather across the northern states.

Unfortunately, that front will stall well to our north.  We'll need to wait another 14-21 days before we see a real cold front and that puts us into October.

We still have a couple of almost hot weeks to go, but it doesn't feel as bad as August.  Finally, This Monday, Sept. 14th) is our next Grief Support meeting at Copeland Tower.

It starts at 10 AM in room 825 on the Hotel side. If you, or someone you know is struggling with the recent loss of a loved one, come share your story.  The meeting doesn't cost anything, but it could help you hearing how others are coping with walking in our shoes.  You don't need to be a resident of Copeland Tower.  Hope to see you there.  Stay tuned!