Southern Ice Storm, Snow Farther North, Freeze Here Monday & Tuesday

I haven't seen much change in model guidance over the south that changes what I posted yesterday.  As of Wednesday afternoon, everything points to an all-rain event here on both sides of Lake Pontchartrain with the slight chance for some sleet or flurries on the North Shore early Sunday as the frigid air filters in.  By the time it gets cold enough across the South Shore, all the moisture will be gone.  I like the FOX 8 graphics.

IF you have to travel north over the next several days, leave tomorrow.  By Friday, a band of heavy snow & freezing rain will shut down all interstates north of Shreveport to Jackson line. Here's the Euro model guidance with freezing rain on top, followed by heavy snow.

The model is forecasting a band of 1-2 feet of snow from Oklahoma City, north of Little Rock & Memphis, to Washington, D.C.  But it's the band of freezing rain that will be worse, knocking out power for thousands.

For all you snow geeks, I think we stay too warm for any frozen precipitation.  Could that change?  Sure, the cold air could dig farther southward, but will the moisture linger?  Right now, I don't think so except for a brief time across the North Shore. Here's the NWS forecast graphic

You can see what they're saying...DON'T DRIVE NORTH on Saturday or Sunday.  So then the next question is...how cold will we get?

Based on what I'm seeing, the Polar Vortex never digs down to the Gulf Coast, telling me the core of the Arctic Blast will be to our north & east.  It doesn't mean we won't freeze, but I don't see pipe-busting temps. except north of I-12 and east into MS/AL/FL.  Also, we still don't have a snow cover near us, but that will change.

 

The key cities to watch over the next several days will be Denver (51), Dallas (66), and San Antonio (71).  IF the Arctic air moves over these cities, then I'll be more concerned about a hard freeze.  This is an evolving situation, and I always preach UNCERTAINTY.  The bottom line is we pay attention when cold air comes, just as we do with tropical systems in the summer.

The FOX 8 7-day certainly is bullish regarding a hard freeze for Monday & Tuesday.  IF that proves to be reality, you still have time to protect your plants & property. 

There are many ways to cover your outside faucets.  Get that done if you haven't already.  As we get closer to the event, we'll decide if we need to drip the water.  For now, pay attention & don't travel north!  Stay tuned!

Crippling Southern Ice Storm, Hard Freeze Coming Next Week

I'm sure many of you have been watching TWC and all their graphics detailing the potential snow & ice storm coming for this weekend.  The main questions concern where will the boundary set up, where it's all snow, or will the ice buildup from freezing rain create massive power outages?  I'm pretty confident forecasting the coldest air of this winter for next Monday & Tuesday as there will finally be a nearby snow cover.  Here are some graphics from FOX 8.

Anyone thinking about traveling northward Saturday & Sunday needs to delay plans as there will be a massive ice storm on a line from Alexandria to Jackson, MS.  Hannah Gard showed us this morning that a Gulf low will form, but it will move too close to our coast, keeping our precip. a cold rain.  IF this low were to form farther to our south, it could bring the frozen precip. line closer to us.  That doesn't appear likely.  My guess is the line for sleet/freezing rain will get as close as Baton Rouge, to Covington, to Bogalusa.  Bottom line, there will be significant power outages in the freezing rain areas to our north late Saturday into Monday.  Again, this is 4-5 days out with great UNCERTAINTY and the potential is still there that the freeze line could sink closer.  One thing is for sure: coming Sunday through Tuesday is freezing temperatures with upper 20s possible on the South Shore Sunday night into Tuesday morning.  I'm leaving all plants outside until Saturday, when I'll bring the tropical plants into my He-Shed. Satellite views show the Gulf return moisture surging northward over Texas.

You can see the dew points in the 40s & 50s that will be here by later tomorrow.

With the surface high moving to the East coast, warmer air will ride back northward on the backside bring very mild air over us.  But don't get used to it as more Arctic air is over eastern Canada.

After another chilly start, we warmed into the lower 60s.  Tomorrow could approach 70.

To summarize, it appears that the rain, sleet & snow line will stay well to our north, but that could change.  Nicandra just showed the latest Euro model.

It keeps South LA/MS all rain.  Sorry, you snow geeks, but remember, stuff can change.  IF the low forms farther to the south in the Gulf and draws in colder air, who knows?  Keep the faith.  Finally,

This week's podcast features FOX 8 morning meteorologist Zack Fradella.  To see & hear Zack, you'll have to subscribe to my podcast at bobbreck.com.  The cost is only $2/month.  John Snell is next week's guest.  Let's pay attention to the ever-changing forecast this weekend.  Stay tuned!