East Coast Trough Returning, Less Hot Late week

 I do read the comments some of you post and yesterday's heat opinions were interesting.  I have been on this planet for nearly 8 decades and grew up during the "cooling cycle" of the 40s, 50s, & 60s.  We have been in a "warming cycle" since the late 70s and I can understand how many of you believe our current heat is "different".  Some comments pointed out how our expanding urban heat islands contribute to the heat.  My only comment is all we hear about is the degree of this heat.  For instance, look at the local National Weather Service headline.

 

If the media keeps bombarding us with "extreme, dangerous, deadly heat", I can see why some of you believe it's never happened before.  However, the hottest decade on record was the 1930s when the planet had far fewer people.  Back in the 60s, I worked summers at the (no longer there) Youngstown Sheet & Tube Steel Mill to help pay my tuition at the University of Michigan.  It was so hot inside the mill we drank 8 bottles of R.C. Cola (16 oz.) per 8 hour shift and took salt tablets.  No one called it extreme heat.  I walked out of the 106 degree mill on a 98 degree day and it felt like I walked into air conditioning.  OK, Enough about the heat.  Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics had an interesting graphic about how water temps have cooled down in the past several weeks off the East Coast.

That's been caused by a persistent upper East coast trough that has brought cold front after cold front. But we also have seen a cool down in the Gulf from tropical storm Bertha.

As we approach the heart (Aug-Sept) of the Hurricane Season, any cooler water certainly helps in limiting development.  But as we saw with Bertha, upper shear is King.

The upper westerly shear from El Nino plus the Saharan Dust have prevented any development in the Caribbean or MDR.  IF the East coast troughs keep coming, anything that might form should be steered away from the U.S.  

What we need to watch for is an upper low cutting off from the main trough and diving down to the northern Gulf bringing a cold front.  Below is the European model forecast for this Saturday.

You can see the upper high (Heat Dome) backing over the SW with the hint of a closed low forming around Chicago.  I'll be watching to see IF that happens and sinks southward.  The upper low will initially increase our daily rain chances making us less hot, but IF that circulation would dip into the northern Gulf for next week, we could see another tropical threat develop for the northern Gulf.  Right now, that's just something to speculate about as no model has that happening.  This week's podcast will focus on what to expect for the rest of the 2026 Hurricane Season and why the northern Gulf and along the East Coast may be the most likely areas to see impacts.  To see & hear my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

You don't have to wait for NHC to start alerting you what might happen.  I'll tell you the whys (reasons) something might form.  For $2/month, it's a bargain. Locally, A few showers have popped up.

Real relief won't come until the upper heat dome retreats back to the west later this week.

Note, as rain chances increase, our temperatures decrease.  Use common sense if working or playing outside tomorrow.  I plan to golf and will stay hydrated, have a hat & will use sunscreen.  My next podcast will air on Thursday. Stay tuned!

 

Oregon Fires, Active Central/Eastern Pacific, Local Heat Warnings

Had several of my friends ask me why do all channels keep harping about "Extreme Heat, Dangerous Heat, Deadly Heat" when, back years ago, it was just called SUMMER?   Not sure what to tell them, as I remember growing up in NW Indiana where my late brother (Jim) and I went to the ball park EVERYDAY no matter how hot.  Mom might tell us, "make sure you drink lots of water" (Douglas Park had lots of water fountains), but I never felt threatened by the heat.  Jim & I took many breaks, went to the A&W for a soda pop, a burger & fries for lunch (cost less than a dollar!), and never got deadly sick.  We just used common sense.  But here it is from the NWS.

Is it hot?  Of course, but it happens every summer about now through early September, where we flirt with 95-100 each day.  Why?  It's called the Summer Heat Dome or an area of upper high pressure that causes sinking air, few clouds, and no rain.

Rotating around this dome are disturbances that cause clusters of strong storms to develop.  Until this dome retreats back to our west, we'll see at least 2 more days of mostly dry weather before the "ring of fire" T-Storms bring us some cooling relief later this week.

Look at all the cities that are 100+ at 3 PM. Where it's rained (Chicago, Tampa) note how less hot it is.  It's a rare day in the summer when we have no rain between us and the beaches.

It was so hot down at Grand Isle, we found this Egret trying to take a drink from a fire hydrant.

Oh c'mon now, lighten up.  Gotta think that's funny?!!!  What's not funny are the fires out west creating a smoke plume that spreads out for thousands of miles.

Some of that smoke may work its way around that upper heat dome and reach us later this week.

So let's just use some common sense until this current heat wave breaks down.  At least in our part of the World, the Tropics have gone to sleep. I see three clusters of storms, but no rotation.

It is active out in the Pacific where it's supposed to be active in an El Nino year. There's a Tropical Storm way SW of Hawaii and a weakening Hurricane (Fausto) going north of Hawaii.

 

The real beast remains Genevieve who peaked out earlier today at 160 mph.

Her satellite presentation still looks quite impressive but she's heading towards cooler waters where she'll weaken, never threatening any land areas.  Locally, it's all about the HEAT. Stay tuned!