Cristobal Maybe In Atlantic, Euro Crushes Hawaii, MJO Podcast Is Out

Not unexpectedly, the tropical Atlantic MDR is showing signs of life.  In fact, there is a whole wave train coming across Africa that will result in more possible development later this month.  However, 1) we know we are in an El Nino year with strong upper shear, 2) the Saharan Dust layer remains strong and 3) perhaps most importantly, our part of the world in the MJO Phase 6,(sinking air).

There is a cluster of storms over the western Caribbean that should drift into Belize with 3 distinct systems out in the Atlantic.  NHC is highlighting only one with the 2nd being a system way north heading out to sea.

It would be a shame if NHC gives a name to the northern most system, but models are hinting that the southern system should become Cristobal.  OK, even if that happens, look at the gauntlet of hostile environment conditions it will have to struggle through.

My guess is NHC will name it Cristobal, but it will struggle to become much more than what Bertha was for the northern Gulf.  Hopefully, it will bring much needed rains to the Islands & Puerto Rico.  Again, with the MJO in Phase 6, the rising air is over the Pacific and not the Atlantic.

My podcast coming out today is about the MJO and what it is.  To see and hear that podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  The cost is just $24/year or $2/month.  That's the cost of one Power Ball ticket, but you'll feel a winner with each podcast!  

Locally, we have nothing going on except an upper heat dome that will dry us out and allow temps to soar to 95-100 for the next 4-5 days.  By the way, NHC has just designated the two areas out in the Atlantic 92-L & 93-L.   That tells me Cristobal might be named for that northern system that will affect no one.  It's difference in the EPAC.

One model (Euro) hammers all of the Hawaiian Island with heavy rains and strong winds.  If you have travel plans there during the next 5-7 days, you may be impacted.

As you can see, we have some serious heat coming for the next 5-10 days so use common sense if working or playing outdoors.  Stay tuned!

Hawaii To Be Threaten, Cristobal Coming To Atlantic, MJO Podcast

The Tropics have come alive worldwide with the main focus later this week will be the threat of a Hurricane affecting the Hawaii Islands.  Model uncertainty can't say whether INVEST 93-C will go north or south of the Islands as a low level surface circulation has yet to form.  NHC is highlighting an area with a 90% chance (translation - It's gonna happen) with the next named storm on their list being Hernan.

I've circled all the threat areas and you can see none of them have any concentrated T-Storms yet.  The Atlantic Basin has also come to life.

The northern most area is heading out to sea and would be another wasted name if NHC upgrades it.  Two areas out in the Atlantic have higher chances, but there is a lot working against them.  The southern most system is on a lower latitude and will encounter the Caribbean wind shear, but it could bring some welcomed rains to the lesser Antilles.

The second system with the higher (60%) chances for development has a core cluster of storms with it and is likely to be named Cristobal later this week.  Models are turning it northward before it reaches the Islands and it should not affect the United States.  Besides wind shear and Saharan dust, the MJO is in phase 6, which is a sinking air phase.  But what is the MJO?  And why is it an important factor in tropical development?

That will be the focus of my podcast this week.  If you want to learn more about it, become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  Thanks to all who have renewed for a second year, and if you have been having trouble receiving my podcast, check your spam filter/folder.  The cost is $2/month making it affordable for all.  The other main local story is the Upper Heat dome coming our way.  Here it is today with Friday on the bottom.

That should cap any daytime heating storms from forming and allow our temps to reach the mid to upper 90s.  We've seen a few storms around today.

We still have 21 days left in August and they look to be above normal.  That's because we expect no tropical activity due to a sinking air phase of the MJO.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to learn more about it on this week's podcast.  Stay tuned!