Bertha Weakening, Nearing Mississippi Coast, Not Following NHC Track

 As most of you know, I'm a big believer of interpreting satellite and radar views to see if a storm is following the computer model forecasts.  Watching local and network stations, few (if any) of the broadcasters have mentioned the current jog to the NNW that has brought Bertha near the Mississippi coast far north of where the models are predicting. Let's look at the graphics to show you what I mean.  We begin with the 10 AM advisory.

What I see on this NHC advisory is 1) pressure is rising, 2) forward motion is WNW 3) winds are still kept at 50 MPH, mainly east of the center.  The MS/AL/FL coasts are getting the stronger winds.

IF the current NW motion continues (contrary to NHC track), the worst impacts will stay east of NOLA.  Here's the past track and the newest NHC update.

I actually see the center closer to the Mississippi coast than the green dot has it.

That's confirmed by radar views.  NHC still says Bertha will begin a sharp turn to the WSW shortly, but what if?  What if Bertha goes inland around Biloxi/Gulfport shortly after 1-2 PM?  We should see a rapid decrease in wind speeds and water rises.  Impacts for Louisiana will be much less than for you folks east of the Pearl River.  In fact, the strongest winds will be east of Biloxi.  So what about the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo? Back to the maps.

Clearly, the main cluster of T-Storms have decoupled from the surface circulation of Bertha moving farther into the Gulf.  Strong storms down there might be where a new center is trying to form?  In fact, a Recon plane is scheduled to investigate that area later this evening.   Bottom line for us, impacts from Bertha will be minimal.  I'll be leaving for the Grand Isle Tarpon rodeo shortly and will try to do a podcast from the island after 4 PM.  To watch it go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Do NOT subscribe to my Facebook post.  Subscribe at bobbreck.com Stay tuned!

Bertha Peaking, Making West Turn, Shear Is King, New Podcast This PM

 In 98% of past tropical events, the worst weather (heaviest rains, strongest winds, greatest surge) is to the right of the track/forward motion.  The exceptions I remember are Hurricane Danny (1997) that stalled over Mobile Bay and the current Bertha.  Once Danny stalled, all the heaviest rains rotated around to the left/west side of the storm producing rain totals topping 30-40"!  With our current Bertha, strong NE upper wind shear is taking most of the heavy rains well south/left of the forward motion.  And that motion has been very erratic overnight into this morning.  However, in the past 2-3 hours, there has been a obvious turn to the left which is what models have been forecasting for days.

So it should come as no surprise that Bertha is turning towards us.  Rather than repeat the graphics on the NHC website, let me set the table for what I will talk about on this afternoon's podcast.

 

The 2 PM EDT advisory from NHC maintains peak winds of 60 MPH, but those winds are confined to areas south and east of the center.  The winds are much lower on the northern side of this storm.

Wave heights have responded to these higher winds with 10-12 foot seas to the east of the center.  All models are forecasting Bertha to begin weakening this afternoon are it moves into drier air & increasing upper wind shear.

You can see on the color infrared satellite that the brighter. colder cloud tops are south of the center.  IF the centerline track verifies, the impacts for south LA/MS will be minimal.   I will go into greater detail on my next podcast.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.  Do NOT subscribe to the Facebook post.

The latest NHC centerline track moves Bertha just north of Grand Isle late Wednesday into early Thursday.  That has delayed the start of the Tarpon Rodeo until 5 PM Thursday.

Once Bertha weakens and moves away from Grand Isle, come on down to the Island to get some good food and hear local music on Thursday.  Some hardy fishermen may even try to fish Thursday PM.  otherwise, the Rodeo is planning for the usual daily events on Friday and Saturday.  Go to tarponrodeo.org to register and have a chance for the Grand Prize ($10,000) that will be drawn on Saturday night.  See you down there.  Stay tuned!