We Have Dolly, Is Edouard Right Behind?

 We are about 2 weeks behind schedule regarding the naming of storms this hurricane season.  The average date of the 4th name storm is August 15th and we finally reached the 4th name (Dolly) on the 2026 list this morning.  Satellite views indicate the 5th name (Edouard) might be right behind even though models don't show it.  The wide satellite view clearly shows Dolly out in the middle of the MDR.

The daylight/visible satellite view has Dolly with a well defined circulation.  However, look behind her to the east and another swirl has moved off of Africa.

The average date for the 5th name storm is August 29th and we could catch up IF the second wave starts developing.  However the Atlantic remains a hostile environment as the Water Vapor view shows all the dry air around Dolly

You can see that the center of Tropical Storm Dolly is exposed on the northern side of the T-Storms.

Add in her fast forward speed (west at 24 mph) and it's no wonder NHC limits future strength to a 45 mph storm.  In fact, NHC dissipates Dolly before she reaches the Windward Islands.

None of the models bring what's left of Dolly into the Gulf.  She should be a short lived storm.  With the recent death of Dolly Parton, NHC felt it was necessary to clarify this naming had nothing to do with the music star icon's recent death.

Go Google "Dolly Parton writes a song for Johnny Carson".  She claims he made her a "Star".  Locally, this morning's storms continue the pattern of disturbances rotating around a weakening Heat dome to our west.

The Gulf and Caribbean remain a hostile environment for Tropical Development and we should get into September without any threats.  As my last podcast pointed out, we won't reach the peak of hurricane season until September 10th.  This lack of activity this summer doesn't mean we'll see no more tropical threats.  Remember the Andrew year (1992) had only one big storm.  I'm optimistic we won't see any major threats, but we might get a small disturbance form along one of the Fall cold fronts that are only weeks away.  To become a podcast viewer, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  Stay tuned!

No Dolly, MJO Stuck in 6, New Podcast Today

 In this amazingly quiet summer of 2026, Tropical Activity in the Atlantic Basin continues to struggle with development.  Invest 95 L is gone while Invest 96 L has a low level swirl but not much else.  There are many waves coming off of Africa, but models are NOT developing any of them except 96 L, which should become Dolly later this week.

All I can think of for causing this lack of activity is the MJO being stuck in phase 6, which is the sinking air phase for the Atlantic Basin.  We know the Caribbean has the strong westerly winds from the El Nino, so any system heading there will be blown apart.

  

The Saharan Dust layer is quickly decreasing so the limiting factor for development has to be the sinking phase of the MJO.  It does show signs of slowly shifting into Phase 7 then 8, but not until the second or third week in September.  Even the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has gone negative for future development.

For now, the Gulf & Caribbean are quiet.  IF we are to have a tropical threat in the next 6 weeks, it probably will be something that develops close in where the wind shear is less.

There are many clusters of storms either side of Florida, but nothing has any rotation.  Models for the next 10-14 days have NOTHING forming.  Today's podcast for subscribers goes into the lack of activity and why.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to gain access to hear what does Bob think.

As a subscriber ($2/month) you can go back and view previous podcasts.  A recent one talked about what is the MJO.  For such a low investment, the return information is priceless!  Locally, the upper East Coast trough persists with the upper Heat Dome over Texas.

There are disturbances rotating around the upper high.  SPC places us in the level two risk for flooding storms on Thursday.  Amber wheeler had these graphics at 4 PM.

The timing is different with the greater threat coming during the morning hours.

Rainfall could exceed 3-5 inches IF the model is correct.  Pay attention on Thursday as the FOX 8 Weather App will alert you if any warnings are issued.  A few storms are around today.

With more clouds and storms on Thursday, highs might stay in the 80s!  That would be nice.  Stay tuned!