Heavy Rain Event Coming, Which Model Do You Believe?

On their afternoon update, NHC increased the odds for Tropical development along the northern Gulf from 20 to 30%.  They are placing greater value on the AI models rather than the standard GFS & European models.  This will be a good test to see if the AI models are really better since the GFS & Euro models both keep the heavy rain threat to our north & west.  Let's begin with the AI forecast that forms a weak low south of Houston by Wednesday AM.

The AI takes that energy right across SE LA/MS along with the heaviest rains.  It is why NHC has increased their chances along the northern Gulf.

But not all models agree.  We start with the Euro that doesn't develop a low over water and takes the energy well to our north before developing it. The top is valid for Wednesday AM and the bottom is Friday PM.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The GFS seems to be in agreement with location & timing.

The bottom view is the WPC's 7 day rain totals and they seem to follow the GFS & Euro keeping the heaviest rain totals (4-7"+) from east central Texas across central LA/MS/AL to Georgia.  So as I always do, let's see what the satellite shows us.

The surface low/swirl is inland over Mexico.  Will it come back out over the Gulf as the AI model shows?  I don't see how based on the Water Vapor flow.

I see all of the upper lows moving west to east across the northern states with a zonal (west to east) flow over the South.  That should stall the weakening cold front well north of us agreeing with where the heaviest rain boundary sets up.  Our local NWS office is leaning towards heavy rains north of Lake P.

So the bottom line is our rain chances will be increasing for the coming week.  The farther north you live, the higher the chances for flooding rains.  RIGHT NOW, I don't feel the South Shore has any concerns.  However, IF the AI model proves valid, that could change.  I will plan on doing daily podcasts if that scenario proves correct.  To see and watch those podcasts, you have to become a subscriber.

In the short term, we have no issues.

So let's do our usual pay attention time this week.

A benefit for increased clouds and showers will be less hot temperatures.  Stay tuned!

AI Model Says NW Gulf System, Satellite Views Say No Way

Colorado State University updated their 2026 Hurricane outlook yesterday, and it wasn't surprising to see them LOWER/DECREASE their numbers based on the strengthening El Niño out in the Pacific.  Remember, I have posted on this blog and in my podcast, I felt the number of named storms might be lower than 10, maybe more like 8.  Here's the latest from CSU that FOX Weather had on this morning.

You shouldn't read too much into these outlooks since they cannot predict with any skill the landfall location of any storms that develop.   But just having fewer storms means the chances of getting hit decreases.  We'll see, but as always, we'll pay attention until those October cold fronts start coming.  Back to the Tropics.

NHC still gives a 20% chance for development over the western Gulf later this week.  Wave heights tell us there is something churning up the waters, but satellite views confirm NOTHING is developing. The visible view has the low-level center already moving westward & inland over Mexico with a weak surge of tropical moisture into south Texas.

The color IR has ZERO T-Storm with the center and very little out over the Gulf.  So why is NHC still hanging on to a 20% chance for development over the NW Gulf?  It's because the AI model forecasts that.

Since the AI model was the most accurate last hurricane season, NHC is placing some value in it in case it is correct.  Right now, I see the tropical moisture moving into Mexico and not streaming towards the northern Gulf.  Our local NWS is sticking to the heavy rain potential for early next week.

The thinking is the tropical moisture would meet the moisture moving southward with a cold front.

My take is the cold frontal boundary will stall well north of Louisiana keeping the heaviest rain threat away.  Here's why.  The current Water Vapor view has a northerly flow over the Gulf while the wide U.S. view finds mainly a zonal (west to east) flow over much of the country.

 

How can a front get near us with no dip in the jet stream?  Maybe an East Coast trough develops later next week, but I'm not seeing that today.  In the short term, Sunday should be like Saturday, hot & humid with a spotty shower.

With dew points well above 70, it doesn't take much to bubble up some storms.

The 7 day forecast indicates we'll turn very wet, but my discussion above should point out the uncertainties in that forecast.

IF the AI model proves to be valid and a disturbance tries to form over the NW Gulf, I'll do a daily podcast update expanding on my daily FB post.  To hear & see it, you'll need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.

For only $2/month, you'll find information that only the little fella can give you through 5 decades of experience.  Come join us.  Stay tuned!