Remembering Betsy, 2nd Half of September To See Tropical Activity in Atlantic?

 When I arrived in NOLA in April 1978, I learned the local only talked about the 1947 Hurricane & Hurricanes Betsy(65) & Camille(69).  Camille was the stronger storm, but it passed far enough east of the city that the major impacts were confined to lower Plaquemines and the Mississippi Gulf coast.  Hurricane Betsy's track came just south of the city and had far greater impacts for SE LA.  But Betsy wasn't supposed to come here as it was forecasted to turn to the north and move well off the East coast.  That didn't happen as Betsy stalled and then made a loop back to the west towards Florida.

There is a wonderful black & white video on YouTube that has Nash Roberts explaining why Betsy reversed course and came back to batter South Florida & south Louisiana.  September 9th, 1965 was the date Betsy slammed into our state as a Cat. 4 Hurricane.  Her destructive impacts prompted Congress to order the Army Corps of Engineers to construct our protective Levee system.  Unfortunately, it was never properly funded and the Levee system was built to standards that Katrina exposed as inadequate.  Congress after Katrina gave the Corps $14.8 billion to rebuild the levee system correctly and we are far better able to withstand a Cat. 1,2 or 3 hurricane.  In fact, the Levee system held up well to Cat. 4 Ida in 2021.  In this El Nino summer of 2026, it is looking less likely we'll see any major impacts from a major hurricane along the northern Gulf coast.  Not only is wind shear staying strong, the Saharan dust layer keeps the MDR quiet.

We are seeing several waves moving westward off of Africa, but the dust is not allowing any  development.  However, CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is indicating they expect some activity to pick up off the East Coast of Florida during the second half of September.

Note, they keep the EPAC very active and that should mean the Caribbean stays a graveyard for any tropical development.  If we are to see another Tropical threat here, it will have to come from something forming along an old cold front that stalls along the northern Gulf.  My podcast tomorrow will go into why that might happen perhaps into early October.  to see & hear my thoughts, you need to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  

The cost is only $2/month to find out more that "what the models are showing".  You'll hear what I think and not just what NHC or the models are saying.  In fact, one model (GFS) now has something forming in the Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame. The GFS long range (often wrong) is placing some tropical system south of us around Sept. 24th.

So go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Thanks to the hundreds who have already renewed for another year.  In the short term, nothing will develop in the Gulf or Caribbean.

We'll stay typical off & on summer wet as the Heat Dome to our north rotates weak disturbances in from the east enhanced by upper low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean.  That pattern will slowly break down as we head into this weekend.  We reach the peak of Hurricane Activity (historically) tomorrow with no signs of formation during the next 7-10 days. This will establish a new record.

Don't miss tomorrow's podcast.  Stay tuned!

T.U.T.T. Remains King, Saharan Dust Still Dominant

Could this be the summer without a hurricane?  We reach the average date of peak activity on September 10th, so we have many weeks to go before the "Fat Lady" sings.  We currently stand at 5 named storms and will probably see another 4-5 names during the next 4-6 weeks.  But will any of them become hurricanes?  Chances are great that at least 1-2 of them will reach that status.

Why would activity suddenly pick up.  look at the MJO above that is currently in Phase 7.  In another week it moves into Phase 8 then Phase 1.  those are the favorable (rising air) phases for tropical development in our part of the world.  So look for activity to increase after September 20th through about October 10th.  Even Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics has lowered his numbers, but focused his locations to along the Gulf coast and especially along the East coast of the U.S.

I think Joe may be too aggressive with the late season activity burst.  Look at what's happening worldwide

We only have one hurricane and one sub-tropical storm right now in the Pacific.  The Atlantic remains dead.  Why?  Look at the dust.

It continues to pour off of Africa shutting down any development.  In addition, the many TUTT (Tropical Tropospheric upper Trough) Lows are creating strong wind shear. Those are upper lows in the Gulf.

No model for the next 10 days see anything forming meaning we will set a record for latest hurricane formation.  IF we are to see something spring up once the MJO gets into phases 8 & 1, it'll have to be close in along one of those old frontal boundaries.

WPC's 7 day rain totals have a bullseye of 4-6+" south of Lake Pontchartrain.  We'll have fairly high rain chances each day for the rest of this week.

keep the umbrellas handy as these are tropical downpours that don't last long but are real soakers.  Here is my view from high atop Copeland Tower. 

To watch the approaching rain shaft move across the city is really fascinating.  For a retired weatherman...Priceless!!!    This week's podcast will focus on the lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and why time is our friend as we head towards October. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up and become a subscriber.  Stay tuned!