Fay Fizzles, FOX Weather Pushing C.A.G., Fronts Are Coming Here

 Yesterday the NHC tropical discussion was showing Tropical storm Fay gaining Cat. 1 hurricane strength for today.  She looked well organized with a central core, but overnight, in this El Nino Summer of wind shear, she was blown apart.   Let's begin by showing you Fay from yesterday.

There has been a recent burst of storms on Fay's north side, but NHC is forecasting her to weaken as she drifts back to the SW. Here center has become exposed with the colder cloud tops being blown off to the north & east.

That would continue the record streak of latest hurricanes with nothing in sight, well almost nothing.  NHC has started to highlight an area off of Africa for possible development.

There is nothing there on satellite views that indicate something forming.  NHC is highlighting that area strictly due to computer models.  None of the models has Gulf or Caribbean development through the next 7-10 days.  The upper low over the eastern Gulf yesterday has pulled back over Florida.

 FOX Weather today once again mentioned the C.A.G. as an area to watch for early October.

While they mentioned the CAG as an area to watch, but here's another of their graphics showing we have no need to get concerned.

In years with a super El Nino, there has NEVER been a storm forming in the Gulf or Caribbean in October. Certainly there are lots of cloud clusters around central American, but nothing is organized except Polo in the EPAC.

I have placed a call into the "Fat Lady" regarding her singing "turn out the lights", but she's out of the country until early October.  Our focus is on cold fronts coming during the next 10 days. This month's heat dome has been crushed to the south.

Clearly, Fall has arrived north of the frontal boundary where temps are in the 50s & 60s.  The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 7:04 PM tomorrow ending what has been a long, hot summer.  NWS is predicting a strong Nor'easter will form later this week.  The circulation around that should force the cold front down to us for later this week.  It will lower humidity while making temps. less hot.  Finally...

In the eastern Pacific (EPAC), Hurricane Polo has quickly formed and is expected to become a Cat. 5 (160 mph) during the next 2-3 days.  Fortunately, computer models are turning it away from the Mexican coast.  My podcast this week will detail how our chances for tropical threats decrease as we get deeper into October.  Go to bobbreck.com to become a subscriber. Thanks to all of you who have renewed for another year.  Stay tuned!

  

Fay Forms, Should Become 1st Hurricane, Gulf Lows, Fronts Coming

Tropical Storm Fay was named way, way out in the NE Atlantic and will never affect any land areas.  She is NOT a wasted name, as satellite views confirm Fay is a legitimate Tropical Storm.  In fact, NHC does make her a hurricane later tonight, finally ending the drought as the latest Hurricane in the modern satellite era.  Let's begin with where she is and why she's named.

 

I have no problem upgrading Fay based on satellite loops that clearly have a concentration in the core

of storms around her center of rotation.  Compare that to the two rotations in the Gulf.

The swirl over the western Gulf is low-level, but it lacks any storms with it.  The upper low over Tampa

has storms around it, but they are over land caused by daytime heating.  The Water Vapor loop 

shows the Gulf remains a hostile environment for any tropical development.

The water vapor also shows how the lingering upper Heat Dome is being weakened by gathering cold air over the northern states.

Look at all the 50s & 60s north of the front.  It won't happen this week (weak humidity front), but I see a real cool front coming that 1st week in October.  

In fact, I've placed a call to the "Fat Lady" to see what her availability is after October 10th.  None of the models have any tropical threat in the Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  It gets you wondering about what's coming this winter?

Could it be back-to-back January snows?  Who's dreaming of a White Christmas?!!!  Stay tuned!