Isaias Is Named, Will Become 1st Hurricane, Future Track Shifts Eastward

I'm still at Orange Beach enjoying my Birthday weekend even though Tropical Storm Isaias is churning & strengthening in the SW Gulf,  While I await the 10 am advisory, this is what we know from last night.

Drier air has pushed the frontal boundary farther offshore giving Orange Beach some filtered sunshine..

Red flags are already up due to the likelihood for increasing rip currents.  Here's the 4 AM track from NHC

Clearly, NHC has shifted the cone to the east with NOLA no longer in it,  Why did that happen?  Look at the current wind shear that has sagged down across the northern Gulf,  Plus, most spaghetti models shifted to the right.

That eastward trend can be seen in the difference of the centerline track from last night to this morning,

That's a pretty significant shift from west of Mobile Bay to East of the Bay.  Right now, Orange Beach is the Bullseye for greatest impacts, but that will change as I believe the westerly shear will keep turning it farther to the east.  Here's the 10 am update from NHC.

The centerline track has shifted farther to the east, lessening impacts for NOLA and the MS. coast. The centerline was over Orange Beach.  The new forecast nudges it closer to Pensacola.

Over time, I expect Isaias to head to the old frontal boundary, taking his main impacts east of Destin over to Panama City.   You should be aware NHC brings Isaias to a strong Cat 2 Hurricane, and he easily could reach Cat. 3.  Wind shear at landfall will weaken him, but this will bring significant impacts to many east of Mobile Bay.  I will have a podcast this afternoon for all my subscribers explaining what could change, so go to bobbreck.com and sign up. It's only $2/month and greatly expands on this free FB Post. You'll see why this is NOT a storm for South LA/MS.  I'll see all my subscribers then.  Stay tuned!

NHC 100% Chance, Internet Going Nuts, Podcast Wednesday PM

Back when I was on the air, I wanted to be the only one right rather than wrong with everyone else.  That's why I used my knowledge plus experience to earn your trust.  Ch. 8 overtook Ch. 4 as the weather leader during Major Hurricanes Isadore & Lili in 2002.  Why?  Because people trusted "What did Bob think?' instead of just what NHC and all the other channels repeated.   They didn't accept what the models said.  So while I await to hear from NHC, this is what I'm seeing.

A low-level circulation has formed down over the SW Gulf, and storms are becoming more concentrated around that center.  NHC now says there is 100% chance of tropical development.

Before you all freak out, I still am in Orange Beach and not feeling any anxiety about where this system might go.  Why?  Because we don't have a center yet and won't until a plane arrives tomorrow morning.  

Do the initial spaghetti plots concern me?  Not really.  I want to be the bullseye at 5 days out.  Where do I think it will go?  Follow the surface front/weakness.

This system is more likely to follow the front towards the Florida Big Bend area.  Just out is the NHC official guidance that you'll see on every channel.

The initial centerline track is just east of Biloxi, meaning the brunt of the storm will be on the Mobile Bay side eastward.  We will follow that centerline every day to see what the NHC trend is doing.  The farther east, the less impacts for NOLA.

I will start a daily podcast on Wednesday afternoon.  To hear and see what I think, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  If you're happy with the local channels repeating the NHC information, that's OK.  FOX 8 does an excellent job with showing you the models and the NHC official information.  If you want more, go sign up and join the hundreds who trust the original Weather Authority.  My podcast will explain in a 20-25 minute discussion what the others can't in their 3-4 minute weathercast.  I have 157K+ FB followers and would like to have some of you join the hundreds who appreciate the knowledge of Bob Breck.  Your decision to stay or leave is something I don't take lightly.  Join the podcast for tomorrow afternoon. I'm disgusted to see all the social media posts stating, like fact, this is what is gonna happen.  Too soon to know Gang.   Stay tuned!