Models Say Kyle Coming This Weekend, Weak Front Fizzling Here

Several weeks ago we had the "Fat Lady" sing turn out the lights on any hurricane treat for the northern Gulf coast. I mentioned in a past blog post that I expected 1-2 more named storms this year.  NHC has begun highlighting an area east of the Bahamas for something to form later this week.  For us, we have never had a November Hurricane cross the Louisiana coast and this El Nino year should be no different.

Satellite views show nothing is there yet, but many models are developing a named storm for this weekend. The Euro AI is on top with the GFS on the bottom.

The Water Vapor has an upper low over Florida extending down into the western Caribbean.

IF anything were to form, it would drift eastward out to sea affecting only the shipping lanes. we remain under an upper SE ridge keeping all of the SE very warm.

The cold is building up over Canada, but without an East Coast trough, that chill is bottled up in Canada for the next 5-7 days.

As this next front approaches on Wednesday, we'll be lucky to see some drier air filter in for Thursday and Friday.

We have lots of clouds around today but the only showers are out to our west.  South and central Florida are getting the flooding rains we had on Saturday.  I do not expect more than a few showers with our front on Wednesday.  Stay tuned!

From Drought To Flood, Weak Front Midweek, Grief Support Monday AM

 Yesterday I gave Kudos to the computer models & NWS for indicating our dry spell would end.  They had 50-70% rain coverage and it turned out to be 95-100%.  However, none of the guidance indicated there would be 3 separate bullseyes of flooding rainfall.  Southern Mississippi received the greatest totals in Pearl River County.

15-20" fell in less than 4 hours because a cluster of storms developed and didn't move. I grabbed a number of radar views with the time stamp from yesterday at the bottom.

Between 6:30 & 10:30 PM, the intensities were 3-4"/hour.  Obviously, flooding was extensive and I'm sure the news tonight will have videos of the damage.  On the South Shore, Metairie was the target, especially from Airline Drive northward.

The 6-9" in less than 4 hours caused extensive street flooding hampering travel and having several cars get stuck in deep water.  Here's the radar views with the time stamp at the bottom. There wasn't any rain at 2:30 PM when I did my FB post, but after 4 PM the skies opened up.

For 2-3 hours, intensity rates were 2-3"/hour before another cell took over on the Westbank to the south. I'm still trying to understand 1) what triggered these downpours and 2) why they remained stationary?  Let me try. We had this tongue of 70+ dew points move over coastal locations.

There was an upper swirl over northern Arkansas with a split in the jet stream (orange circle) right over us.  We had no surface fronts around so it had to be this upper diffluence that enhanced the low level lift.  Fortunately, we have not seen a repeat today as the upper disturbance moved down into the eastern Gulf with Florida getting the soaking.

Our next real rain chance will be along a weakening cold front that will stagger through Wednesday morning.  This front will struggle getting here due to another upper trough over the Rockies.

The take aways from this next front are 1) the main upper energy/support will go well north of us, 2) there will be some showers, maybe a little thunder, but rain totals should not be excessive and 3) there will be very little cold air behind the front.  Hopefully we will see drier air for Thursday into next  weekend.

If you're waiting for heavy coats & sweater weather, not happening this week.  Finally,

Our next Grief Support Coffee is tomorrow (Monday) on the hotel side of Copeland Tower in room 825.  It begins at 10 AM.  If you're struggling with the loss of a loved one, perhaps we can help smooth the road on your grief journey?  There is no charge and we'll be done before noon.  Come join us as we walk in each other's shoes.  Stay Tuned!