NHC 100% Chance, Internet Going Nuts, Podcast Wednesday PM

Back when I was on the air, I wanted to be the only one right rather than wrong with everyone else.  That's why I used my knowledge plus experience to earn your trust.  Ch. 8 overtook Ch. 4 as the weather leader during Major Hurricanes Isadore & Lili in 2002.  Why?  Because people trusted "What did Bob think?' instead of just what NHC and all the other channels repeated.   They didn't accept what the models said.  So while I await to hear from NHC, this is what I'm seeing.

A low-level circulation has formed down over the SW Gulf, and storms are becoming more concentrated around that center.  NHC now says there is 100% chance of tropical development.

Before you all freak out, I still am in Orange Beach and not feeling any anxiety about where this system might go.  Why?  Because we don't have a center yet and won't until a plane arrives tomorrow morning.  

Do the initial spaghetti plots concern me?  Not really.  I want to be the bullseye at 5 days out.  Where do I think it will go?  Follow the surface front/weakness.

This system is more likely to follow the front towards the Florida Big Bend area.  Just out is the NHC official guidance that you'll see on every channel.

The initial centerline track is just east of Biloxi, meaning the brunt of the storm will be on the Mobile Bay side eastward.  We will follow that centerline every day to see what the NHC trend is doing.  The farther east, the less impacts for NOLA.

I will start a daily podcast on Wednesday afternoon.  To hear and see what I think, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  If you're happy with the local channels repeating the NHC information, that's OK.  FOX 8 does an excellent job with showing you the models and the NHC official information.  If you want more, go sign up and join the hundreds who trust the original Weather Authority.  My podcast will explain in a 20-25 minute discussion what the others can't in their 3-4 minute weathercast.  I have 157K+ FB followers and would like to have some of you join the hundreds who appreciate the knowledge of Bob Breck.  Your decision to stay or leave is something I don't take lightly.  Join the podcast for tomorrow afternoon. I'm disgusted to see all the social media posts stating, like fact, this is what is gonna happen.  Too soon to know Gang.   Stay tuned!

NHC Increases Chances, Recon Scheduled For Wednesday

 Overnight there has been no major changes in thinking from NHC except to increase chances for development to 90% later this week.  That tells me, once they get a Recon plane down into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, and the plane finds a closed circulation, we'll have our 9th named storm ( Isaias),  By waiting until Wednesday to send down the low level Recon, that tells me NHC believes there is no well defined center yet.

You can see the old frontal boundary along the northern Gulf with two clusters of T-Storms.  One is NW of Tampa with the other a much larger system down in the SW Gulf.

The upper low that was over the Gulf has drifted into Mexico replaced by a weak upper high.  That is favorable for surface development.  In addition, the wind shear over the Gulf is low with the strong westerly winds across north Louisiana.

So the question becomes simple.  IF Isaias were to form, where will he go?  Since he hasn't formed yet, there is no certain answer.  However, since NHC designated this area INVEST 92-L, hurricane models can be run.

Now before you freak out, remember NHC is guessing at an initialization point.  I can find two mid level centers on the visible satellite loop.  Which one will take over?  That'll make a difference on track solutions.  On the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), they state folks from Louisiana to Florida should pay attention for later this week for tropical impacts. Here are the model solutions beginning with the Euro & Euro AI.

The Euro AI is stronger and farther to the east.  Here's the GFS and GFS AI

Like the Euro, the GFS AI solution is farther to the east.  Which one do I believe?  None of the above.  Until there is a center to track, it's folly to guess where landfall will occur.  What I do know is we have plenty of time to watch and prepare.  Regardless of development, this will NOT be an evacuation type storm for Louisiana.  It is way more likely to turn to our east so those of you along the AL/FL beaches need to pay attention.  We still have time for our first hurricane and several model intensities do just that.   I will have a FB post later this afternoon and a podcast tomorrow afternoon .  To see & hear the podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  Stay tuned!