New Tropical Record, Fronts Are Coming?

 Some wise man/woman once said (maybe Yogi), "records are made to be broken".  Well, in the satellite era (1966), the latest hurricane formed on September 11th and that happened twice. 

 

Now, some of you might wonder if we ever had a season with zero hurricanes?  The answer is yes.  In modern times 1907 & 1914 both had zero hurricanes.  We are now past the historical peak (Sept. 10th) of the hurricane season and history tells us we still have many opportunities for more named storms.

Since we are so far below average/normal, I suspect those 6 named storms might be closer to 3 with maybe one becoming a late season hurricane far away from the U.S.  Found this graphic on line yesterday.

So today makes it 315 days with models showing nothing for another 7-10 days.  The MDR stays dead as more African dust keeps coming.  In fact, it has forced the ITCZ far to the south.

Several private companies have maps showing a slight chance for development in the 10-14 day time frame.

The CPC graphic is at the bottom.  Note it keeps the Caribbean dead (brown) with the Gulf and off the East coast (Bahamas) the more likely areas for late September formation.  The later it gets, the better for us as cold fronts start coming.  One such front has made a push out of Canada.

Note it is sweater/jacket weather behind this front.  However, it will stall well to our north as an upper high will block any movement down to us.  We are many weeks away from our first real front, but the cooler air is getting closer.  What we'll have to pay attention to are these 1st fronts making their way down into the Gulf and a spin forming along the frontal boundary.  We already have 3 storms that have impacted our state.

In the short term, we'll stay summer-like all next week.  With an upper high building over us, that should limit rain chances until later in the week when another tropical wave approaches.  We have now starting posting on Instagram.  If you are not a current subscriber to my podcast, go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  The MJO goes into the favorable phases for us the last week of September into mid October and I still expect a late season burst of activity.  My podcast expands on my FB & Instagram posts. IT's a bargain at $2/month.  Stay tuned!

The Fronts Are coming, Gulf Low Moves Inland

 It has been a dreary day across most of SE LA/MS as several areas of low pressure have given us above normal clouds and showers.  Most swirls have drifted to the north are now are well inland which should limit any development.  Currently, we have general coverage of showers that have kept us less hot.

If this weak rotation continues to move farther inland, Friday could see fewer clouds and storms. Of course, that would mean we'd be back in the heat.

Most locations were well below 90 due to the clouds & rain.  What I'm seeing is the start of the Fall fronts coming southward out of Canada.  None will reach us until after Sept. 15th, but the end of the heat is in sight.

The Heat Dome is being crushed as colder and colder air gains a footing.  Most of Canada is in the 40s & 50s and that Fall feeling is coming into the northern states.  We'll probably have to wait another 10-14 days to see a weak front reach us.

That won't happen until after the 15th.  We'll need to pay attention the last 2 weeks of September as the MJO heads into Phases 8 & 1, the favorable (rising air) phases for the northern Gulf and East Coast.  As usual, the GFS has a hurricane developing in the 10-14 days time frame.

Remember the GFS has an error beyond 10 days that makes it very unreliable.  Still it's a reminder that today is the historical peak of Hurricane season and we have many more weeks to go before the "Fat Lady" sings.  Today's podcast deals with how likely are we to get another tropical threat.  Go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for ($2/month) and hear my thoughts.  In the short term, until the fronts arrive, keep the rain gear handy.  Stay tuned!