Edouard Coming To NW Gulf? Dolly Not Done Yet?

 Since we remain in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase of the MJO, I'm not expecting any rapid development of the two systems NHC is watching.  They do believe the closed circulation down south of Grand Isle will become a Tropical Depression or Storm (Edouard) before it reaches the upper Texas Coast on Tuesday.  Perhaps you've noticed the increase in winds over us today?  Something is slowly developing down in the Gulf where buoys show we have west winds and a circulation.

Even though we have a surface rotation, there is no concentration of storms around the center. Still, NHC has increased chances for development up to 50%

Wave heights are not increasing much, yet don't be surprised to see NHC make Invest 97-L a Tropical Depression at 4 PM.  Spaghetti plots all take him to the upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  That will keep most of the wind and storm surge away from SE LA/MS.  We will see some rainy/squally periods, but there should be no significant impacts for us.  The upper heat dome will steer Dolly westward and not northward.

Another tropical wave east of Florida may increase our rain chances later this week.  Now for Dolly. There is still something remaining even though at the surface, we no longer have a closed rotation.

She is bringing some welcomed rains to all the Islands including Puerto Rico.  The wave heights indicate Dolly's "DNA" is still there.

Several models do bring whatever is left of Dolly into the Gulf late next week.  No model develops her into more than a strong tropical wave.   I'll have a special podcast this afternoon for my subscribers.

Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Let's see if NHC makes 97-L Tropical Depression # 5 at 4 pm.  Stay tuned!

Dolly Making Comeback? Pay Attention Northern Gulf

 This is a special midday Saturday post based on what I'm seeing on Satellite views and information from NHC.  On my Thursday blog post, I mentioned 3 separate swirls/lows that were visible inland along the northern Gulf coast.  Yesterday I mentioned one of those lows moved offshore south of Pensacola.  On their 8 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) last night, NHC began highlighting an area over the northern Gulf for possible development giving it a low chance (10%).

Currently, this system has clusters of disorganized storms around it.  I've drawn in (white arrows) the upper flow that is from the SW on the northern side, but NE on the southern side.  In addition, a tropical wave is moving across south Florida complicating the pattern.  The current wind shear is highest along the northern coastal Gulf, but weakens down over the Gulf.

We'll see if NHC increases the probability for development on their 1 PM TWO.  They have scheduled a Recon plane for Monday, if needed, just off the coast SW of Houma.  If this season has shown us anything, don't expect rapid development especially since the MJO is not in the favorable (rising air) phase.   I may do a special podcast later this afternoon if I have additional information that you need to know about.  Go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

I do more than just re-read what NHC posts on their website.  I tell you what I'm seeing and give you different possibilities/solutions that might happen.  The cost is only $2/month.  Thanks to the hundreds that have renewed for another year.  The other thing of interest today is what's left of Dolly out in the Atlantic.

It appears to me that Dolly is trying to make a comeback.  However, she is heading towards increasing upper wind shear and that's why NHC only gives her a 10% chance to re-develop.

IF she can survive the wind shear and reaches the Bahamas with anything left, then we might need to pay attention.  Remember Hurricane Andrew in the El Nino summer of 1992.

Note, he was a weak system until he was north of Puerto Rico and exploded as he approached Florida. There are several models that keep Dolly's DNA intact and then develop her around Florida. The Canadian (rarely verifies) is most bullish.  The top view is valid for next Thursday 9-3.

The middle view is valid for Saturday 9-5 with the bottom valid for Monday 9-7.  Is that solution likely?  Probably not, but some of the AI models try to bring something into the Gulf.

I mention these solutions not to scare you, but to make you aware that we are approaching the peak of the Hurricane season and, despite the super El Nino, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 tells us what can happen.  A comparison to 2025 shows we are behind that pace, but remember how active it got in mid September into October.

You can see how this year ranks compared to 150+ previous years.  Despite being so slow so far, let's not think we are done for 2026. I believe the total numbers will be less than 10, but that still leaves 4-6 storms to go.  If you want to hear & see my podcast later today, go subscribe.  The next NHC TWO comes out at 1 PM.  Stay tuned!