New Podcast Today, Gulf Low Unlikely, Rainy Weekend Probable

 Those of you who are subscribers to my podcast should have received an email notice telling you to log in for this week's edition.  It focuses on the next several weeks and what are our chances for a late October Tropical threat.  It talks about when will the "Fat Lady" finally sing "turn out the lights, the party is over!"  but you can't see it without becoming a subscriber for $2/month.   

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  Next week I'll review the history of the song "Turn out the lights", and when will we finally be able to not worry about a hurricane threat this year.  Come join us.  Locally, all the TV stations are hyping this coming wet weekend that has already canceled many fairs & fundraisers.  It's hard to go against model guidance, but there are several things that could happen to not make this weekend a total "washout".  Let's review what we know.

There is a surge of tropical moisture expected to rotate around the Bermuda High and interact with several frontal boundaries sagging down from the north.  WPC has shifted the heaviest (5-10") rainfall to our south and east keeping us in the 2-4+" amounts.  It all depends on the movement southward of these cold fronts.

My take is these fronts don't have much cooler air to force the lift to produce the heavy rainfall.  That lift will come from daytime heating, meaning there should be many dry hours both Saturday & Sunday.  As the fronts sag slowly into the Gulf, drier air should set in for next week.   So the next question is, could a low form along the front offshore in the Gulf?  I don't think so and here's why.

The Water Vapor view shows a huge upper low down over the Yucatan with dry air across thew northern and western Gulf.  That will not allow tropical development.  However, look into how the low leaves for next week. By Monday (Oct. 5) it's gone replaced by an upper high that would be favorable for development.

However, by the 10th, a big dip of strong winds dives across Texas into the Gulf bringing an end to any tropical threat.  I remember back in 1995, Hurricane Opal formed in the Bay of Campeche and became a major Hurricane the first week in October.

Opal made landfall over Pensacola giving them two direct hits in one season.  In fact, that year Pensacola and south Georgia west of Valdosta had two direct hits from storms.

Crazy things happen in weather so let's not be caught off guard by this weekend's heavy rain threat.

FOX 8 has issued a First Alert for Saturday & Sunday so I want you to pay attention if you plan outdoor functions this weekend.  Make sure you have your FOX 8 Weather App set up to receive all the severe weather warnings and notifications.  We need some good soakers since we have been dry.  Let's hope the heavy downpours space out and give the pumps time to catch up.  Stay tuned!

September Ends Without Hurricane, Late Week Gulf Moisture Brings Flood Potential

 As we say goodbye to, historically, the most active month of hurricane season, we enter October with no names in the Atlantic.  NHC has downgraded both Fay & Hanna to remnant lows.  In the short term 7-10 days, no tropical activity is likely due to the strong upper winds caused by the Super El Nino in the Pacific.  You can see those upper winds on the visible satellite loop.

 

With an upper low over the Gulf, there can be no tropical development.  This will be the first September since 1994 that didn't have a September Hurricane.

However, that same year had two hurricanes form in November (red circles).  Note how neither affected the Gulf.  With the MJO Still in 8 going into 1, we have  about another week in the favorable (rising air) phase for something to develop.  

 

Once the MJO gets into phases 2 & 3, our tropical season should be over here.  FOX Weather is still hinting at the Central American Gyre (CAG) kicking off something in the southern Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.

The bottom view is the Euro tropical development potential highlighting the greatest threat staying in the Pacific, but does have a smaller bullseye in the southern Gulf.

So even though it appears any tropical threat coming in early October stays down over the Gulf, I want to see some real cold fronts come through before I ask the "Fat Lady" to turn out the lights on this hurricane season.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on my thoughts regarding the rest of this season.  To hear and see me, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

The only threat in the short term will be the flood potential caused by returning gulf moisture interacting with several cold fronts.

The upper trough crossing the Rockies will bring down a cold front close to us.  These slow moving Fall fronts often can cause several days of heavy rains.

WPC has backed off the the heaviest rains over us, shifting the bullseye south of the MS/AL/FL coasts.

Let's hope that trend continues and the predicted wet weekend won't be so wet.  Stay tuned!