Central Plains Severe Outbreak, Southern Spring Preview Continues

At this time of the year, as daylight gets longer & the sun angle gets higher, Springtime warmth surges northward colliding with retreating winter like cold air.  SPC is predicting just that for tomorrow & Friday. The severe threat is well to our north & west.

The severe threat is along a stalled surface frontal boundary that is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next several days.\

 

The WPC is indicating as much as 4-7" of rain may fall over the next 7 days.  Parts of north Louisiana will get into the heavier rainfall with way less amounts down over us.  This is much needed rainfall and should not result in any widespread flooding.

There are several weak disturbances moving through the upper SW flow triggering some heavy storms.

It's difficult to predict how much rain we'll get as the surface boundary will stay to our west.  Suffice to say, we remain in the warm air sector with increasing low level moisture so there will be daily rain chances into this weekend.  

Today's rainfall came very close, but movement is from the south to the north keeping the much needed rains west of a Houma to LaPlace to Covington line.  Our higher rain chances will arrive over the weekend when a stronger upper disturbance over Washington dives down over the Rockies.  that may drive that frontal boundary closer to us.

But the long range computer guidance indicates no signs of the upper East Coast trough returning during the next 10-14 days.  That means our temperatures will stay way too warm for early March.

The new drought monitor comes out tomorrow and will not include the rainfall that fell over south Louisiana today.  We reached 80 degrees today at noon before clouds moved in.  Normally our highs in early March should be around 70 so we're running 10-15 degrees above average.  I still believe we have some cold air returning for the second half of this month.  It's too soon to start thinking about our summer heat.  Stay tuned!

Spring Begins, March Arrives Like a Lamb

We have completed the three coldest months (historically) of the year with no snow events and only a couple of freeze nights, mainly on the North Shore. Astronomical Spring doesn't arrive until March 20th, but those of us who live in the South have already seen 80+ warmth with more coming this week.  A sure sign of Spring is how Mother Nature works with animals.

 

I shot this picture of Mother Duck and her children crossing the street by my old house.  I'm not sure how animals know when it's time to mate/spawn, but it must have something to do with the increasing daylight, along with warmer temperatures.  For many up north, they still have many weeks of cold air and wintry weather to endure.  But not for us in the South.

The next two weeks, according to CPC, will be very mild over the eastern 1/3 of the nation.  That is due to the current upper pattern that has mainly a zonal (west to east)  flow of the U.S.

Without an East Coast/Great Lakes upper trough, the really cold air will stay well to our north.

You can see how the temperature contours align themselves to that west-to-east upper flow.  70s & 80s dominate the southern states, while north of the frontal boundary, they're in the 20s & 30s.  We finish February on a warm note and will start the first 10-14 days of March mild to warm.  Look for a pattern flip by the middle of this month that will remind us we'll still need sweaters and jackets.  But not right away.

It's hard to get any rain without clouds and a cold front, and the CPC's forecast indicates the bullseye for precipitation the next 7-10 days will stay to our west and north.  That's OK as those rains will drain into the Mississippi River basin, raising levels here.

We've spent most of the winter with water levels at the Carrollton gauge around 2 feet.  This allowed a saltwater wedge to creep northward, requiring the Army Corps of Engineers to construct a sill down river.  With water levels now back to 4 feet plus, that should no longer be a problem with the prediction of 3-5"+ falling upriver during the next 7-10 days.  So we stay in a mainly quiet pattern that has gotten the gardeners planting flowers & veggies.  With temps 75-80+ all week, trees are budding out, grasses are growing, pollen is flying, and allergies are going nuts!

It appears a weak front could get close enough by next weekend to give us better rain chances.  I think it might be time for fishing with Captain Hylton once again, Monday & Tuesday.  I will have my next podcast available for Tuesday, and if you want to hear my thoughts about the rest of March into April, you need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up for $2/month.  We will begin focusing on the 2026 Hurricane season (Yeah, only 3 months away) shortly, and my podcast is the only way to see & hear what I think.  Go sign up as coming topics will involve climate change, government cutbacks, and what you'll need if you plan not to evacuate this coming Hurricane season.  Stay tuned!