Fox Weather Keeps Hinting Gulf development, Some Models Place Storm in Gulf

What I like about watching the FOX Weather Channel is how they don't wait for NHC to spoon feed them information.  Instead, they examine satellite loops and models and express their opinion regarding what they see.  For two days, they have been mentioning an upper low will move across Florida this weekend and enter the Gulf for next week. I've talked in past post about getting another tropical threat along the northern Gulf will come from a close in development.  Let's look at the FOX Weather graphics.

If this solution verifies, we'll stay on the dry side of this low through this weekend.  That Heat dome could force the low to drift farther down over the hottest waters of the Gulf early next week.

Most computer models are NOT developing anything.  However, The GFS & GFS AI models do place a storm in the Gulf for the following week. The GFS on top is valid for 9-25 .

The GFS AI model has a system just south of our coastline valid for Oct. 1st, two weeks away.  We all know how badly the GFS model is beyond 5-7 days.  Still, since the MJO is heading into phases 8 & 1 (favorable rising air), we should not just ignore that model. 

If you are a subscriber to my podcast, we explained the MJO weeks ago.

Tomorrow's podcast will focus on possible Gulf development the last week in September.  To see & hear what I think, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com for $2/month.  Subscribing to my Facebook post does NOT give you access to my podcast.  You must go to bobbreck.com.

Right now, all NHC is talking about is a weak low east of Bermuda.

I'm more concerned about the yellow circle that could get into the Gulf.  Models keep 98-L nearly stationary for the next 4-5 days.

The Google AI model even makes 98-L a hurricane, but as you can see, it's not our threat.

There are no signs that the upper heat Dome will move through this weekend.

So until we start getting some real cold fronts, I will not call the "Fat Lady" into singing for another 3-4 weeks.  Go sign up to my podcast to learn about what I'm thinking that NHC isn't talking about just yet.  Stay tuned!

 

FOX Weather Pushing Weekend Gulf Low, NHC Sees Only Atlantic Low

Yesterday FOX Weather was really pushing development of low pressure in the central Gulf.  This was based on the Google "DeepMind" AI model.  Today that model has backed off from any formation, but FOX Weather is still talking about possible development in the Gulf, not based on any satellite features, but mainly on the spin in the "available moisture" loops.

So what FOX Weather (NOT FOX 8) is looking at are model solutions.  Let me show you what I see.

There is an old frontal boundary drifting down the East Coast, and maybe they believe something will "spin up" along that boundary.  I do see an upper low north of Haiti & the Dominican Republic.  Is that the spin the models see?  I will go into greater detail on this week's Bob Breck podcast coming out on Thursday.

You must sign up for $2/month to gain access to my podcast.  It allows me to go into greater detail than what our FOX 8 weather programs (3-4 minutes) can give you.  Typical podcasts run 15-20 minutes or more.  If you're a weather geek or just want to feel safer hearing what I think, go sign up.  NHC is hanging on to a disturbance east of Bermuda.

All the AI models keep this disturbance well into the Atlantic off the East Coast.  It's in a region of lower shear, but all around it is a hostile environment.  In fact, all of the Tropics continues with high upper-level wind shear.

IF we are to see another northern Gulf tropical threat this year, it will have to come from something developing in the Gulf.  Nothing indicates that happening in the short term.  What we want are for cold fronts to start coming. That is happening across the northern Rockies, but a Heat Dome is blocking any southward movement.

So without any fronts, we still need to pay attention to the Gulf as water temps are 85-88.

 

I don't see any disturbance now that has any potential to get into the Gulf.  However, the MJO is going into the Favorable (rising air) phases (8 & 1), so don't be surprised if the folks at FOX Weather are on to something for early next week.  More of my ideas coming up on Thursday's podcast.  Go to bobbreck.com to become a subscriber.  Stay tuned!