Amanda Forms In Pacific, Gulf Low Unlikely, Expect Local Impacts

The first named storm for the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) basin is Amanda, and NHC upgraded her this morning.  She is way out over open water and should not ever affect any land areas.  It looks to be the first of several named storms as computer models make the EPAC active during the next 8-14 days.  We want that region to be active as it usually increases the upper wind shear over the Gulf & Caribbean.

NHC's forecast track keeps Amanda as a weak Tropical Storm and dissipates her by early next week.  She will not impact Hawaii, staying well off to the southeast.  Let's get back to our world and whether we need to worry about an early-season storm in the Gulf.  Thursday's podcast will focus on early-season storms in the Gulf, so sign up at bobbreck.com to see & hear What Does Bob Think?

I've drawn the current surface features on the visible satellite view.  Low pressure is moving off the Carolina coast drawing down cooler & much drier air across the Southeast.  There is a slug of  deep tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf and, if we were in August, I would be nervous that something might start to develop.  NHC once again has not highlighted any area in the Gulf for formation and here's why.

The water vapor imagery has nothing but upper lows all over the place, including the northern Gulf.  Upper lows typically mean "hostile environment" for tropical development.  So why the flare-up down in the Gulf?  That is where the split in the upper flow is occurring, enhancing upward lift into T-Storms.  The real question is...where will this moisture end up?  The WPC's rainfall graphics DO NOT bring any excessive rainfall inland over the northern Gulf. The top graphic is for the next 2 days with the bullseye down over the eastern Gulf.

The bottom view is for the next 7 days, where WPC believes 2-4" totals could move into south LA/MS/AL, but there are no 8-10" totals expected since no model predicts any tropical development.

So even though no storm should form, that doesn't mean there will be no impacts.  Remember that front coming down the East Coast?  The interaction of the surface high and the weak low in the Gulf will cause brisk easterly winds that will increase tides all along our coasts.  NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory outside our levee protection system.  It's hard to find the surface front.

Temperatures are cooler over the southern states due to clouds and rain.  But the really dry air (low dew points) is well behind the front.  Atlanta's DP is 50, with Jacksonville down to 52!  I'm thinking we'll sneak into some drier air overnight into Thursday before the muggies return for Friday & the weekend.

As models predicted yesterday, we have had a wet afternoon.  Thursday looks much drier, so I'm going on a day trip over to Bay St. Louis and may not post again until Friday. At 3 PM, the rain has really cooled us down.

The rains are expected to return for Friday and Saturday, keeping our temps less hot.   Models are suggesting/hinting at some tropical problems over the Caribbean and southern Gulf next week, but let's pay attention this week until the disturbed area over the eastern Gulf is gone.  Next podcast for subscribers is tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

Gulf Disturbance Unlikely, Weak Front Coming

The Forecast specialists at NHC did not highlight any area for tropical development during the next 7 days as they must believe the upper dynamics are unfavorable for storm formation.  There is a cold front dipping down the East coast and models indicate this front will push off our coast into the northern Gulf. Sometimes these fronts can spin up little areas of low pressure that develop into a tropical system.  Hurricane Alicia (August 1983) was one such storm.  However, it appears strong westerly upper winds over the Gulf will prevent anything from getting started.  There is an unusually deep East coast trough that is driving the front southward, but the WSW upper shear across the Gulf is extreme.

The only concern for us is this...will the area of deep tropical moisture covering most of the Gulf head our way?  WPC's 7-day rainfall graphic says no, with the heaviest totals staying well down over the Gulf.

I'll be watching to see how this front interacts with the moist pool over the Gulf.  In the short term, the front will bring us some storms on Wednesday with some drier air for Thursday & Friday.

While temps behind the front are in the 60s & 70s, look at the dew points.  30s, 40s & 50s is really crisp, good feel air.  If we're lucky, we could see some 60 dew points here Thursday & Friday.

There is a band of heavy rains across the North Shore that could reach the South Shore before dark.  As this front moves through on Wednesday, East winds will increase and Nicondra showed why the NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through Friday.

And as Zack showed us on his morning program, even though tropical formation is unlikely, there is a chance for some heavy rains along the northern Gulf this weekend.

The driest day appears to be on Thursday, with tropical moisture returning late on Friday.  As I said earlier, NHC doesn't seem concerned about anything in the Gulf, and until models begin to see something, we should relax and just pay attention as we always do at this time of the year.  My next podcast will air on Thursday, focusing on June storms in the Gulf.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to watch.  Stay tuned!