Spring Begins, March Arrives Like a Lamb

 We have completed the three coldest months (historically) of the year with no snow events and only a couple of freeze nights, mainly on the North Shore. Astronomical Spring doesn't arrive until March 20th, but those of us who live in the South already have seen 80+ warmth with more coming this week.  A sure sign of Spring is how Mother Nature works with animals.

 

I shot this picture of Mother Duck and her children crossing the street by my old house.  I'm not sure how animals know when it's time to mate/spawn, but it must have something to due with the increasing daylight along with warmer temperatures.  For many up north, they still have many weeks of cold air and wintry weather to endure.  But not for us in the South.

The next two weeks, according to CPC, will be very mild over the eastern 1/3 of the nation.  That is due to the current upper pattern that has  mainly a zonal (west to east)  flow of the U.S.

Without an East Coast/Great Lakes upper trough, the really cold air will stay well to our north.

You can see how the temperature contours align themselves to that west to east upper flow.  70s & 80s dominate the southern states while north of the frontal boundary they're in the 20s & 30s.  We finish February on a warm note and will start the first 10-14 days of March mild to warm.  Look for a pattern flip by the middle of this month that will remind us we'll still need sweaters and jackets.  But not right away.

It's hard to get any rain without clouds and a cold front and the CPC's forecast indicates the bullseye for precipitation the next 7-10 days will stay to our west and north.  That's OK as those rains will drain into the Mississippi river basin raising level levels here.

We've spent most of the winter with water levels at the Carrollton gage around 2 feet.  This allowed a salt water wedge to creep northward requiring the Army Corps of Engineers to construct a sill down river.  With water levels now back to 4 feet plus, that should no longer be a problem with the prediction of 3-5"+ falling upriver during the next 7-10 days.  So we stay in a mainly quiet pattern that has gotten the gardeners planting  flowers & veggies.  With temps 75-80+ all week, trees are budding out, grasses are growing, pollen is flying and allergies are going nuts!

It appears a weak front could get close enough by next weekend to give us better rain chances.  I think it might be time for fishing with Captain Hylton once again Monday & Tuesday.  I will have my next podcast available for Tuesday and if you want to hear my thoughts about the rest of March into April, you need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up for $2/month.  We will begin focusing on the 2026 Hurricane season (Yeah, only 3 months away) shortly and my podcast is the only way to see & hear what I think.  Go sign up as coming topics will involve climate change, government cut backs and what you'll need if you plan not to evacuate this coming Hurricane season.  Stay tuned!

 

Is Winter Over? Meteorological Spring Begins Sunday

 You can tell when the weather is boring when 1) I don't do daily blog posts and 2) local weathercasters create graphics to help them keep you entertained/interested since nothing is going on.  Oh sure, we are in a mini-drought and I'll talk about that.  But what I think most of you want to know is..."are we going to see anymore cold outbreaks? Or can I put away the sweaters till next Fall?"  MY answer is YES, the hard freeze threats are over for this Winter.  But, NO we are not done with the cold.  Zack Fradella had this graphic just for the past 5 years.

As you can see, 2022 & 23 both had frosty conditions well into March at MSY.  The "rule of thumb" for gardeners is don't plant tomatoes before March 15th, unless you can protect them if we get a late season frost.  The CPC's (Climate Prediction Center) 8-14 day outlook calls for way above average/normal temps for the eastern & southern states.

The deep upper trough over the eastern states that brought last week's Nor'easter has retreated and flattened across the U.S. blocking any of the real cold air from coming southward.  The upper ridge of the Rockies will shift to the Southeast keeping us way above normal/average for the next 10-14 days.  We do have a weak front that will stagger through overnight giving us a chance for some rain.

You know Spring is almost here when you see 90+ in south Texas.  The other big weather story is the lack of rainfall over much of the Southeast. The deeper reds indicate greater drought intensity.

The CPC's Precip. Outlook offers some relief as does the current weak cold front.

  

Unfortunately, our end of the front doesn't have much rain with it yet.   Our best chance for showers will come after midnight and towards dawn on Friday.

This weak front should bring some less humid air back over us for Saturday and Sunday.  That will allow nights to be cooler, but with the higher sun angle, daytime highs should rebound to near 80.  Compared to the folks up over the Great Lakes & Northeast that will still be dealing with the cold and snow, our weekend looks "almost perfect".  Of course with warmer air and longer days, trees & grasses start growing increasing the pollen in the air.  My allergies have gone nuts and I'm sure many of you are going through the annual change of season miseries?!!!  Get like Big Lou...he's on meds too!  Stay tuned!