Slim Rain Chances This Weekend, Last Rains Oct. 3-4th, Next Podcast Thursday

There was a story in today's Advocate/Times-Picayune that was the classic example of bad luck.  A Louisiana couple decided to have a destination wedding on Grand Isle on Oct. 3rd. Sure enough, those were the only two days it rained this month so far.

It's a really cute story and all ended well even though it was wet.  After 23 dry days, we need some rain.  I'm not as convinced as the local broadcasters are (60% chance) for showers this Saturday on Halloween.  Here's why.

As I mentioned yesterday, the sub-tropical active jet stream is just starting to take shape.  I've outlined the disturbances in yellow with the main flow in blue.  The stronger systems are west of California and over the northern Rockies.  There are no fronts/triggers over the southern states.

The current showers over Texas are associated with a weakening upper disturbance.  Another weak disturbance will approach us on Saturday bringing a slight chance for a few stray showers.  Remember, when in drought, leave it out.  A stronger front will arrive late NEXT Tuesday giving us a better chance for rain.

Note that San Antonio & Dallas are still 80+.  Until we get a front moving through, I'm not getting excited about rain chances.

I think 20-30% this weekend seems more reasonable, meaning most of us stay dry.  Next Tuesday's front might bring 60-70% chances, but even then, that might be too high.  We will finish October way too warm. Finally, my next podcast will feature my trip to Orange Beach after Hurricane Isaias.  Coming up in early December will be my wedding podcast.  To see & hear both of them, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.  Stay tuned!

El Nino Winter Signature, Few Late Week Showers, New Podcast

 If you watch the network News Programs or any of the weather channels, they have featured heavy rainfall creating flooding conditions across parts of the Rockies.  While most of the eastern states enjoyed a wonderful Fall weekend, much of the Western states were cold & wet.  Why?  It's all about the upper air features that drive surface systems.  A persistent upper trough is over the West with signs that the "Hawaiian Pineapple Express" (Yellow circle) is about to begin.

Notice how chilly it is out there compared to locations south of the frontal boundary.  The current upper pattern will not allow that cold air to spread down to us in the short term (7-10 days).

But notice how that changes in the next 2 weeks.  On top is today followed by the forecast for Nov. 11th on the bottom.

Wow!  That's quite A FLIP-FLOP with the western trough shifting to the Great Lakes and Southeast.  That will make us significantly colder for November IF that prediction proves correct.  We shall see. For the rest of this week, a slow moving cold front will bring much needed rainfall to many states.

Yes, those blue colors over the Dakotas is snow falling.  This front will struggle to reach us and my old colleague, Jeff Baskin, coined the phrase..."When in drought, leave it (rain chances) out".  My gut tells me this frontal boundary will get close, but stall out/wash out north and west of us this weekend.  We certainly could us some good soakers, but I wouldn't bet the house that will happen.

Low level easterlies are increasing surface moisture, but the real rains are back to our west.  

I would not get too excited about the 40% rain chances on Saturday.  That is more for areas (BTR, North Shore) to our north and west.  Unless the front reaches us, most of us will stay dry.  Finally...

This week's podcast will be about Orange Beach, Alabama and how they survived Hurricane Isaias with little impacts.  To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  One of my future podcasts will be my November 30th wedding to Valerie Adams aboard the NCL Breakaway on a cruise to Belize.  You could join us on the cruise, OR become a subscriber for $2/month.  We will have one podcast of the actual wedding ceremony with others about the various ports & excursions along the way.  Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30th, but the party for us is just beginning and you can follow it into December.  Come join the fun.  Stay tuned!