TD 2 Become Bertha, No Major Changes

A Recon Aircraft flying around TD # 2 found 40+ mph gusts on the south side of the circulation, so NHC has named our second storm of 2026 Bertha.  The next track forecast will come out at 10 PM, but there should be no major adjustments expected.  Satellite views as the sun sets indicate a very asymmetric (Lopsided) storm with strong NE upper wind shear blowing all T-Storms south of Bertha's center.

 

The Water Vapor Loop indicates lots of dry air ahead of Bertha's path and that should limit development.  

So the cluster of storms south of Bertha's center should stay well off the LA/MS coasts.  NHC's rain total confirms that thinking.

Unless there is some magical change in direction, some magical drop in upper wind shear, Bertha should not have any major impacts for us.

So why has NHC named this system?  My guess is 1) data from Recon aircraft and 2) increasing wave heights.

The insurance industry is cheering since everyone's Hurricane Deductible now kicks in.  The recent model runs are hinting at a more southern track.

NHC still says a 2-4' storm surge is possible.  Our local NWS office says 1-3' is more likely.  My thinking is dry air plus wind shear wins every time.  Check the 10 PM advisory and again on Tuesday.  Bertha will not become a strong storm.   I'll have another podcast Tuesday PM.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Stay tuned!

TD 2 Struggling, Watches for LA/MS Coasts, New Podcast This PM

 The new weather word of the day is "meandering", replacing "wobbling that has been used for years.  NHC is describing the path of motion of T,D. # 2 as meandering over the eastern Gulf.  Perhaps some social scientists told them that is a clearer way to describe wobbling?!!! Either way, this system hasn't begun a definitive forward motion just yet.

So far TD 2 is walking like a drunken sailor trying to return from shore leave!

The 11 AM EDT advisory does NOT strengthen TD 2 because upper level wind shear is too strong not allowing storms to form around her center.

Clearly, most of the T-Storms are being blown south of the center and that's likely to continue.

The upper high over the central plains is building to the east and that should keep the strong NE shear over TD 2.  NHC will probably name it Bertha, but they have lowered the intensity forecast from 60 to 50 mph.  In fact, when it reaches (if it reaches) the Louisiana coast, it might barely be a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm.  The upper shear should also keep it very lopsided with the bulk of the rainfall staying offshore.

Radar has almost all of the rainfall offshore of Florida right now.

Wave heights have increased over the eastern Gulf, but buoy information around the center shows no tropical storm force winds.

So maybe the models can help us figure out where TD 2 is going?  Nope!

The Spaghetti plots are useless.  At least the NHC hurricane models give the feeling of a westward motion and not northward.  Because of that, NHC has issued a storm surge watch from the mouth of the River eastward to Florida.

In addition, they have issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Morgan City eastward into Florida.  Because of this, I will have a special afternoon podcast to tell you what I think & WHY it will NOT effect the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.

To see and hear my thoughts and opinions, you must subscribe to my podcast for $2/month.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up. Stay tuned for my next podcast update!