TD 18 Upgraded To Trop. Storm Rafael, Heading Towards Southern Gulf

Based on Satellite views and Recon data, NHC has upgraded TD 18 to our 17th (Yep, that was their # to reach) named storm (Rafael) that is expected to rapidly intensify to a hurricane tonight and on Tuesday.  It is in an area of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures. Let's begin with the NHC future track.

This will be a slow moving storm that we'll track for many days.  Note, NHC keeps it a hurricane over eastern Cuba into the southern Gulf before weakening it as it heads farther northward.  Here's why. The intensity guidance rapidly ramps Rafael into a Cat. 2 storm.

The highest Oceanic Heat Content is in the Caribbean with a small surge with the loop current into the Gulf.  But the loop current is much weaker than back several weeks ago.  In addition, there is lots of dry air covering the Gulf with much stronger SW upper winds (Shear) over the western Gulf.

There is still a small well-defined swirl just along the north side of Cuba.  It will probably be absorbed by Rafael's circulation.

Keep that in mind as you look at the Spaghetti Plots.  Most turn whatever is left of Rafael to the right east of us.  The WPC's 7-day rain totals show the path of heaviest rains over the eastern Gulf into the Florida beaches.

That's pretty much the track that Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics predicts.

Joe is even more aggressive making Rafael a Cat 3 coming into the Gulf, weakening him west of Tampa but keeping Rafael a Cat. 1 at landfall near Destin.  That follows the track of Hurricane Kate in 1985, a Cat. 2 at landfall.

Since The Lady has sung 2 weeks ago, whatever is left of Rafael should be no more than a rainstorm with gusty winds IF it came right to us.  I don't expect that as I believe the SW shear will turn him to the east before reaching us.  The Euro is way more wacky turning Rafael to the west and heading him to Mexico or dissipating over the western Gulf.

Bottom line, models agree in solutions in the short term, but are totally confused beyond 3 days.  If we were in early October or late September, we would need to be more concerned.  Right now, I'm not nor should you either.  Here's why we're staying warm.

The upper trough over the Rockies is making them feel winter-like.

It appears that will change over the weekend IF Rafael goes up the East coast bringing down some cooler air on the backside.

It may not be sweater & jacket weather, but it will sweep away the humidity.  I'm thinking of going fishing with Capt. Hylton IF the winds weaken tomorrow,  so my next post might be delayed. Stay tuned!

PTC 18 Becomes TD 18. Soon To Be Rafael heading Towards Gulf.

Recon Aircraft this morning confirmed a well defined low level circulation had developed south of Jamaica, but the surface wind strength remains below 40 mph.  NHC has upgraded Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 to Tropical Depression 18 that is predicted to become storm strength (Rafael) this afternoon.  The NHC future track brings Rafael into the Gulf as a Hurricane by late Wednesday.

 

NHC keeps the strength of Rafael as a Cat. 1 hurricane, but Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics is indicating a much stronger storm (Cat 3) first hitting Cuba before entering the Gulf..  So where will it go and how strong will it be?  I like to look at past history as Zack Fradella showed us this morning.

So past history tells us there have only been 6 hurricanes enter the Gulf and NONE crossed the LA/MS coastlines  Why?  Because the meteorology has changed making the Gulf a much more hostile environment for storms.  Let's go through what we know by looking at satellite views. Focus on the Caribbean.

The surface feature (TD 18) is the green arrows.  Note there is a weak upper low (blue arrows) to the north.  Right now TD 18 is over the warmest waters and lowest wind shear for the next 2-3 days.  But look at the Gulf on Water Vapor.

Not only does upper level dry air cover the Gulf, but strong SW winds rotating around the upper trough over the Rockies should provide a block for us and turn Rafael to our east.  The question I have is will this SW flow remain?  Or will the upper trough lift out as Rafael will be a slow mover.  

The Spaghetti Plots have that uncertainty once the system gets in the Gulf.  Models are in agreement/consensus in days 1-3, but beyond look at the spread.  

One of the outliers is the European that is the farthest to the south towards Mexico.  NHC indicates confidence beyond 3 days is VERY LOW.  As I mentioned yesterday, Rafael may never reach land and just wander around weakening over the Gulf.  I'll have another update after 3 PM  Stay tuned!