Bertha Peaking, Making West Turn, Shear Is King, New Podcast This PM

 In 98% of past tropical events, the worst weather (heaviest rains, strongest winds, greatest surge) is to the right of the track/forward motion.  The exceptions I remember are Hurricane Danny (1997) that stalled over Mobile Bay and the current Bertha.  Once Danny stalled, all the heaviest rains rotated around to the left/west side of the storm producing rain totals topping 30-40"!  With our current Bertha, strong NE upper wind shear is taking most of the heavy rains well south/left of the forward motion.  And that motion has been very erratic overnight into this morning.  However, in the past 2-3 hours, there has been a obvious turn to the left which is what models have been forecasting for days.

So it should come as no surprise that Bertha is turning towards us.  Rather than repeat the graphics on the NHC website, let me set the table for what I will talk about on this afternoon's podcast.

 

The 2 PM EDT advisory from NHC maintains peak winds of 60 MPH, but those winds are confined to areas south and east of the center.  The winds are much lower on the northern side of this storm.

Wave heights have responded to these higher winds with 10-12 foot seas to the east of the center.  All models are forecasting Bertha to begin weakening this afternoon are it moves into drier air & increasing upper wind shear.

You can see on the color infrared satellite that the brighter. colder cloud tops are south of the center.  IF the centerline track verifies, the impacts for south LA/MS will be minimal.   I will go into greater detail on my next podcast.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.  Do NOT subscribe to the Facebook post.

The latest NHC centerline track moves Bertha just north of Grand Isle late Wednesday into early Thursday.  That has delayed the start of the Tarpon Rodeo until 5 PM Thursday.

Once Bertha weakens and moves away from Grand Isle, come on down to the Island to get some good food and hear local music on Thursday.  Some hardy fishermen may even try to fish Thursday PM.  otherwise, the Rodeo is planning for the usual daily events on Friday and Saturday.  Go to tarponrodeo.org to register and have a chance for the Grand Prize ($10,000) that will be drawn on Saturday night.  See you down there.  Stay tuned!

TD 2 Become Bertha, No Major Changes

A Recon Aircraft flying around TD # 2 found 40+ mph gusts on the south side of the circulation, so NHC has named our second storm of 2026 Bertha.  The next track forecast will come out at 10 PM, but there should be no major adjustments expected.  Satellite views as the sun sets indicate a very asymmetric (Lopsided) storm with strong NE upper wind shear blowing all T-Storms south of Bertha's center.

 

The Water Vapor Loop indicates lots of dry air ahead of Bertha's path and that should limit development.  

So the cluster of storms south of Bertha's center should stay well off the LA/MS coasts.  NHC's rain total confirms that thinking.

Unless there is some magical change in direction, some magical drop in upper wind shear, Bertha should not have any major impacts for us.

So why has NHC named this system?  My guess is 1) data from Recon aircraft and 2) increasing wave heights.

The insurance industry is cheering since everyone's Hurricane Deductible now kicks in.  The recent model runs are hinting at a more southern track.

NHC still says a 2-4' storm surge is possible.  Our local NWS office says 1-3' is more likely.  My thinking is dry air plus wind shear wins every time.  Check the 10 PM advisory and again on Tuesday.  Bertha will not become a strong storm.   I'll have another podcast Tuesday PM.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Stay tuned!