Dolly & Edouard, Not So Fast. Heat Dome Weakening, Podcast Renewals

 I have been pointing out how the MJO appears to be one of the controlling factors in tropical development.  It has been stuck in Phase 6 which is the sinking air phase for the Atlantic Basin.  The rising air phase has been over the Pacific and that continues today. There are at least 5 named storms out there.

The Atlantic looks like it wants to perk up, but development has been limited.  However, Dolly and Edouard could be named as NHC is watching two areas for possible formation. NHC gives the system coming off of Africa the greater chance to be named.

There is clearly a rotation in the mid levels, but the color view has no storms around the center.  Models are hinting this disturbance could become the season's first hurricane later this week, but it's track is predicted to curve well east of the Islands.  The feature near Bermuda appears to be fighting upper wind shear.

There are some storms trying to form around a low level circulation, but this feature is running out of time as it moves northward.  Out local weather is again dominated by heat & strong PM T-Storms.

These storms have had plenty of lightning and brought welcomed cooling rainfall to most.

My views from high atop Copeland Tower have been awesome.  It's a weatherman's delight!  The upper Heat Dome to our west is allowing a 'ring of fire" pattern that should bring us more storms later this week.

These daily storms should keep us less hot for the rest of this week.  As August is renewal month for my podcast subscribers, some of you have credit cards that have expired and that doesn't not allow you to renew.  Check your card account to see if you have been billed the $24 for the coming year.  Our next podcast this week will focus on why any storms that do form are likely to make the same recurve as last summer's storms.

If you are not a subscriber and would like to see & hear "what does Bob think?", go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  My focus at this time of the year are on any hurricane threats.  Later in the Fall & winter, I'll feature some interviews with folks from my past along with focusing on any winter weather threats.  For $2/month, I think you'll enjoy it.  Stay tuned!

Dolly, Edouard Coming To Atlantic This Week? heat Dome To retreat

It appears we'll get through August without a tropical threat in the Gulf.  But models are hinting, and satellite views suggest, we might see two named storms well out in the Atlantic this week. Which one will be Dolly?  The system coming off of Africa?  Or the cluster east of Bermuda?

The Saharan Dust layer is beginning to split apart, and both systems are in between the heaviest dust layer. The system moving off Africa is still partly over land.

The system near Bermuda shows some signs of organization.  My bet is that it will become Dolly tomorrow.  We'll see, as neither system will be our concern.  The Pacific remains the hotbed of activity.

The red circles are all named storms.  Our interest this week will not be on the Tropics, but when will the heat dome break down or move away?

From what Amber Wheeler showed us this morning, the upper high pulls back to the west this week as the East Coast trough deepens.

That should result in disturbances riding down around the ridge, increasing our rain chances and making us less hot, but not right away.

There are some folks on the North Shore getting some relief.

Remember, these daily storms bring lots of lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours in a short period of time.  They also bring cooling temps, so let's hope for more rain.  Stay tuned!