It's The Snow Cover Stupid, One More Freezing Night

 To paraphrase a line from James Carville (it's the economy, stupid), if you're wondering why we are so cold and have stayed so cold, blame it on recent nearby snow cover from the ice storm 8 days ago.  In December and early January, the South had no snow cover and the Arctic airmasses were allowed to modify before reaching us.  But look at these snow cover maps now. The recent East Coast snow storm dumped 1-2 feet on the Carolinas.  It's the snow cover to our north that lingers that's more important for us.

With clear skies and light winds over night, expect another hard freeze North Shore & a light freeze south of Lake P.  Here's the NWS forecast lows.

The FOX 8 numbers are lower than the NWS and I will drip/run my faucets again tonight out of an abundance of caution.  No need to start dripping until you go to sleep on either side of the Lake.  Here was my bird bath this morning.

It was frozen solid as MSY reported their low as 26.  My thinking is Monday will be 28-30, but that is too close to the Pipe Rule for me to not run the water.  Why take a chance?  The warming pattern will begin Monday PM and lasting through Tuesday before another, weaker cold front moves thru.  It all starts over the Pacific where an offshore upper trough has a ridge over the West with a trough over the East. An Atmospheric River (AR) is heading for the Pacific NW. Hopefully that will beat down the western ridge and flatten the eastern trough.

The lobe of the Polar Vortex (PV) has moved off the East Coast resulting in a more relaxed upper flow for us.  that should allow for a 2 day warm up.

Temperatures on the back side of the surface high have soared to 60+ and that's coming our way.  Since dew points remain in the teens, temps will crash once the sun goes down.

Only Monday morning lows will create some freeze issues as the rest of the week will stay above 32. Finally, my next podcast is coming up on Tuesday with John Snell.  If you want to know more about John's life, his sensational wildlife photography and his new bride, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Cost is only $2/month and during hurricane season, it become priceless!  FYI, Mandy in Monroe finally has her power back on after one week. Another reason a full house generator from Lightning Services is not just for hurricane season. Stay tuned!

Sunday Morning Coldest, Full Precautions Needed, Warm up Next Week

As my podcast described in detail yesterday, our lows this morning barely dipped to below freezing on the South Shore, and the duration was brief (2-3 hours). My subscribers were in the know and easily saved the $2/month charge for viewing my podcast by not running their water.  No need to wait until hurricanes come. Sign up at bobbreck.com, as Winter is far from over.  Our "Pipe Rule" served us well, and there was no need to drip/run your water south of Lake P.  North Shore was a different story as lows were in the mid 20s.  Tonight will be colder, and BOTH sides of the Lake will need to drip the inside faucets, but NOT until after dark. Let's go over the details and review.

Our local NWS office is predicting 26 at MSY on Sunday & 34 for Monday morning.  My suggestion is for those of you north & west of Lake Pontchartrain is start dripping water after dark/6-7 pm.   For us, south of the Lake, start dripping before you go to bed (10-11 PM).  My thinking is the center of the Arctic high will not be over us so the winds are likely to stay up, producing some lake effect on the South Shore.  My gut is saying 27-31 at MSY.  That's too close for comfort, so I will start dripping before I go to sleep. The wind direction will shift from the NNW to NNE overnight.

Computer models have again nailed this Arctic Blast as the upper low is moving over Georgia/SC.

The source region of cold air in Canada is not nearly as cold as several weeks ago, yet the Polar Vortex is driving the chill through the Gulf into the Yucatan & Cuba.  My friend Tom in Tampa reminds me it's Gasparilla parade weekend.  Burrr! for parade watchers.

Miami might get into the 30s for Sunday AM!  Our warm up begins tomorrow afternoon, but it will be a slow process.

With such low dewpoints (teens), the temperature will drop like a rock as the sunsets.  So tonight is the night that all of us must drip the water.  Don't start dripping until temps reach the upper 20s, so as not to cripple the firefighters with low water pressure.

Again, these morning lows for the next 2 days appear to be worst-case scenarios.  IF the winds diminish but stay 5-10+ mph, lows might not get that cold.  Still, let's take precautions so we don't have any pipes bursting.

My next podcast, Monday or Tuesday, will be about John Snell, long-time main senior anchor at Ch. 8. You'll learn about John's start into broadcasting, his current passions (his wife & photography), and some of his past anchors, including Margaret Dubuisson & the late Nancy Parker.  To see & hear John, go to bobbreck.com & become a subscriber. Stay tuned & Stay warm!