Wind Shear, Dry Air Impacting Isaias, Model Tracks Shift Eastward, New Podcast Coming

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, I'm seeing subtle changes that are all good for SE LA/MS and less good for NW Florida beaches.  We have heard all summer how wind shear has protected us from having an active tropical season.  Many of you have commented about what happened to the wind shear?  Well, on satellite views, I'm seeing both wind shear and dry air impacting Hurricane Isaias and not allowing him to get much stronger.  Recon aircraft reports pressures have RISEN suggesting a weaker storm.  Take a look.

There definitely is an eyewall, but look at all the dry air covering the western Gulf.  Isaias has reached the loop current of warmest waters of the Gulf, but will the wind shear and dry air cap the increase NHC called for later tonight & tomorrow?  I will go into what I'm seeing and thinking on this afternoon's podcast, but you must be a subscriber to see & hear me.

I don't just repeat what NHC says nor just show you "what the model says".  The cost of $2/month is one Power Ball ticket.  Go sign up and listen to our next podcast.  I will be talking about the slight shift to the east in model tracks.

Bryan Norcross pointed out how the Google deep mind model now brings the centerline to Destin.  Will NHC follow that trend?

IF that model proves correct, note the highest winds will be east of Pensacola on over to Panama City.  Ditto for the highest storm surges.  Let's see what NHC changes at 4 PM.  My podcast will be out before 6 PM.  Stay tuned!

Alabama, Florida Gridlocked, Isaias' Bullseye Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola

 Last night, after hurricane warnings were issued for the northern Gulf coast and all the hotels told visitors they would have to leave before 11 AM on Thursday, Valerie and I decided to beat the gridlock and drive back to NOLA at night.  Whew!  What a wise decision as there was no traffic and we made the trip in less than 3 hours.  We had a wonderful meal & time at Lulu's before departing and hope the beach doesn't take too hard a battering.

We all have been there with gridlock.  Leave early, avoid traffic.  NHC has been very consistent with where this storm is going.  Their centerline track hasn't changed in their last three advisories with the centerline east of Mobile Bay & Gulf Shores.  Let's go through the latest.

What I've learned during the past ten years is the stronger the storm, the better the model forecast/solution.  It would be hard for me to disagree with the NHC information, but I will tell you what I see.  Here's the official NHC close track. the red is the hurricane warning area with the blue tropical storm warnings.

I use the centerline track because experience tells me IF you avoid the EYEWALL, your impacts/damage will be far less.  In addition, TYPICALLY the stronger side is to the right of the centerline.  That means the beaches from Orange Beach to Panama City will have the greater impacts with lesser impacts westward from Gulf Shores.

This morning, Isaias is a small strengthening hurricane that is now moving faster (10 mph) to the NE.  NHC turns his track to the north based on a building surface high (Bermuda High) east of Florida. What I see is a weakness from a frontal boundary still over the NE Gulf.

NHC also makes Isaias nearly a Cat. 3 Hurricane by this time tomorrow before weakening him to a Cat. 1 at landfall.  What I also see is a wall of wind shear over the northern Gulf.  I think that will weaken Isaias quicker than NHC suggests, plus I believe they will shift the centerline to the east (Pensacola-Destin) on future advisories.  These are my opinions based on what I see right now.  

What should you get out of all of this? This is NOT New Orleans storm.  For the Mississippi Gulf coast, there will be some wind & tide impacts, but they should not be a big deal as the winds will be blowing offshore. This is Alabama & NW Florida's storm.

The heaviest rainfall will be east of Biloxi with NOLA staying dry.  This is NOT a Katrina type storm.  even the wave heights indicate that.

Isaias' impacts will expand as he weakens, but mainly to the east of that centerline.  I will have a podcast out later this afternoon, but you must be a subscriber to hear & see my thoughts.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.

The cost is $2/month and you'll get to watch a 20-25 minute detailed discussion on 1) what & why NHC is thinking, 2) My thoughts & opinions and 3) what could go wrong.  I thank the hundreds who have recently joined and those that have been with me since last year.  See you later this afternoon.  Stay tuned!