NHC Jumps In, Highlights 2 Areas For Potential Development, No Impacts Here

I guess NHC got tired of all the hype on social media regarding the potential tropical development in the NE Gulf for early next week.  Today they highlighted an area for possible development during the next 5 days, mainly based on the European model.  Chances are very low (20%) and IF something were to form, it would not impact SE LA/MS, but mainly Florida, Georgia into the Carolinas. 

In fact, we will be on the dry side of this system, unlike Florida where 5-8" rain totals are possible.

As you can see, there is NOTHING there yet.  All the lows are over land with a strong wave heading into the Yucatan.  Still, many models are indicating the possibility of something in the NE Gulf this weekend.

Bottom line here, IF you have any trips planned for the Florida beaches or Disney World/Universal Parks in central Florida, just pay attention and don't be surprised IF your trip has issues.  Right now, it's a heavy rain threat.  I wouldn't change my plans until we have more model information confirmed by satellite views.  IF something develops, I'll have my next podcast on it later this week.

You need to go to bobbreck.com to sign up and become a subscriber to learn What Does Bob Think?  But NHC also issued an area way out in the Atlantic for development.

NHC only gives this system a 10% chance for development.

The next couple of days here look hot & mostly dry.

Let's watch the NE Gulf the next couple of days in case something were to develop.  I don't see any impacts here, but Florida, Georgia & the Carolinas could get a drenching.  Finally...

The 98th annual Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo start one week from tomorrow.  Go to tarponrodeo.org for more details and how you could win the $10,000 Grand Prize.  Stay tuned!

AI Models Back Off, NE Gulf Threat Lessens, We Dry Out & Heat UP

One reason NHC isn't highlighting the northern Gulf for possible tropical development is the fact none of the main computer models indicate anything happening.  The only models hanging on to something trying to form are the New AI models.  Even they have backed off from future development for early next week.  We begin with the Euro AI valid for NEXT Monday & Wednesday.

They seem to have something, but there is no closed low like yesterday.  The GFS AI has something, but it doesn't look like much.

Again, they are hinting at something, but there's nothing there yet.  So we keep watching and waiting.  The other focus is on when will the disturbed weather all along the Gulf coast dissipate?

The current upper heat dome is shifting to the East Coast and will slowly push all the areas of low pressure back to the west.  Our drying trend begins this afternoon and should last into this weekend.  Of course, that will mean hotter temps in the 90s returning.

If you want to listen or watch today's Podcast, go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  I give you my opinions as to why tropical development will struggle for the next few weeks.   Don't forget the International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is coming next week.  Go to tarponrodeo.org to sign up for a chance at winning the $10,000 Grand Prize.  Stay tuned!