The Lady Has Arrived, Cold Air Covers The Gulf, It's Time To Sing...

We all know that "officially" the Hurricane Season runs until November 30th.  I've seen many on line posts warning " to not let your guard down" as there could be a late season threat in the Gulf or along the East Coast.  I am here to tell everyone who follows this blog, OUR season is over!  The Lady flew in last night and can't wait to sing tomorrow.  We all remember Hurricane Zeta in late October 2020.  Major hurricanes can happen in October during the Earth's current warming cycle.  However, not this year.  Why?   Let's go to the graphics.

 

Our first real strong cold front has pushed down through the Gulf into the Yucatan, dramatically cooling down the Gulf's Oceanic Heat Content.  The weak disturbance east of Puerto Rico and the one down off of Nicaragua cannot head into this large cool air mass.  None of the models develop any storm in the Gulf during the next 10-14 day time frame.  Hence, it's time for The Lady to turn out the lights.

Not only is this air mass way cooler than average/normal, it is exceptionally dry with dew points in the 20s & 30s.  Tropical activity does not like cool, dry air.

There are some clouds along our coastline, but these are cold air clouds and not the kind that produce rain.  It has been 13 days since our last rainfall. We stay that way for the next 7+ days.

We will warm back up over the weekend into next week, but we're done with those dreaded 90s.  So soak in the sunshine and comfy cool temps (Bogalusa was 39 this morning!).  We've seen the injury lists and all signs point to another Saints defeat tonight.  However, I'm betting with Drew Brees in the house (His number is going up in the Dome's ring of honor), our guys will rise to the occasion and beat the Broncos 24-17.  Gotta stick together Who Dats!  Stay tuned!

Now Mama, That's A Real Cold Front! The Lady Is Coming For Friday

 While walking Bailey last night, it still felt warm and I wondered if the computer guidance (that said we'd be in the 50s by daybreak) was too aggressive with this cold front.  After all, Lake Pontchartrain is still in the 70s.   But when I opened the door to get my morning paper (yeah, old school), Bam!  a strong north wind slammed into my face telling me my running shorts & t-shirt were not enough to keep me warm.  I quickly headed to my back sunroom to check on my outside thermometer.  It read 56, but that 20+ north wind made it feel like the 40s.  Burrr!  Our first real cold front and it'll hang around into the weekend.

We're not only 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday, but the dew points (lower 70s yesterday) have dropped into the 30s.  That's seriously dry air that has prompted the NWS to issue red flag alerts for high fire dangers.  In fact, today is day 12 without rain and I see none coming for the next 7-10 days. The cold air is flowing southward out of Canada as a deep East coast trough is pulling across the SE.  In another 6 weeks, that kind of dip will bring us a freeze threat.

The upper trough is also bringing fast westerly winds over the Gulf effectively blocking any tropical activity from the U.S.   With each front comes colder air that cools down the Gulf.  The Caribbean still is warm, but look how the Oceanic Heat Content (OHC) has changed over the Gulf.

For Francine, Helene & Milton, there was lots of red (warm) colors with a well defined Loop Current.  Now we only find several pockets of warm water with the northern Gulf dramatically cooler.  That's why The Lady will be singing for us on Friday.  She's flying in tomorrow night and is ready to put this hurricane season to bed.  For us, colder air is our friend and those northerly winds will continue to bring it down into Friday.

If you haven't done it yet, open those windows and let in the "fresh" air!  It feels great IF you're dressed for it.   Stay tuned!