Still Waiting On Dolly, Edouard, Heat Dome Weakens, New Podcast Wednesday

As we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season (Sept. 10), the tropical Atlantic continues to struggle to produce any storms.  We all know the Saharan Dust layer has been a factor along with upper shearing winds during this El Nino summer.  The dust layer is diminishing, but the shearing winds are not.  The average date for the 1st hurricane is August 11th with the 2nd hurricane occurring by August 26th.  That will not happen this year.   I am seeing 3 swirls out in the Atlantic & 2 of them might yet become named storms.

It would be a shame if NHC names the system north of Bermuda as it is racing into colder waters.  The system off of Africa has the greater chance to develop.

But satellite views indicate the lack of T-storms around a weak rotation.  Models do forecast development and this will probably become Dolly in another day or two.  

Most models keep this system weak allowing it to go farther to the west and not making the northward turn until getting north of Puerto Rico.  My next podcast will go into detail as to why we must continue to pay attention even though it appears the pattern is set for a re-curvature to the north away from the U.S.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

Some models even hint Invest 96 L (soon to be Dolly?) might go farther to the west.

One only has to remember Hurricane Andrew was making the turn to the north before shifting back towards the west eventually slamming south Florida.  We have almost 2 weeks to watch this system and I won't get nervous this far out.  Neither should you.  I found another interesting swirl just SE of Miami.

Models don't see it nor are the clusters of storms in the Gulf showing rotation.  We continue to see daily disturbances rotate around the Upper Heat dome over Texas.

Get rain, get cooler temperatures.

At least it appears the worst of this summer's heat is diminishing.  Now if only we can get some early season cool fronts once into September!  Stay tuned!

 

Dolly & Edouard, Not So Fast. Heat Dome Weakening, Podcast Renewals

 I have been pointing out how the MJO appears to be one of the controlling factors in tropical development.  It has been stuck in Phase 6 which is the sinking air phase for the Atlantic Basin.  The rising air phase has been over the Pacific and that continues today. There are at least 5 named storms out there.

The Atlantic looks like it wants to perk up, but development has been limited.  However, Dolly and Edouard could be named as NHC is watching two areas for possible formation. NHC gives the system coming off of Africa the greater chance to be named.

There is clearly a rotation in the mid levels, but the color view has no storms around the center.  Models are hinting this disturbance could become the season's first hurricane later this week, but it's track is predicted to curve well east of the Islands.  The feature near Bermuda appears to be fighting upper wind shear.

There are some storms trying to form around a low level circulation, but this feature is running out of time as it moves northward.  Out local weather is again dominated by heat & strong PM T-Storms.

These storms have had plenty of lightning and brought welcomed cooling rainfall to most.

My views from high atop Copeland Tower have been awesome.  It's a weatherman's delight!  The upper Heat Dome to our west is allowing a 'ring of fire" pattern that should bring us more storms later this week.

These daily storms should keep us less hot for the rest of this week.  As August is renewal month for my podcast subscribers, some of you have credit cards that have expired and that doesn't not allow you to renew.  Check your card account to see if you have been billed the $24 for the coming year.  Our next podcast this week will focus on why any storms that do form are likely to make the same recurve as last summer's storms.

If you are not a subscriber and would like to see & hear "what does Bob think?", go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  My focus at this time of the year are on any hurricane threats.  Later in the Fall & winter, I'll feature some interviews with folks from my past along with focusing on any winter weather threats.  For $2/month, I think you'll enjoy it.  Stay tuned!