Northern Gulf Wave Train, 3 Hurricanes In Pacific, Atlantic Still Sleeping

 In this El Nino summer, all the preseason hurricane forecasters told us the Pacific would be very active with the Atlantic basin staying below normal.  Boy have they ever been correct as the EPAC has had 6 hurricanes while the Atlantic has had none.  The EPAC has seen 13 named storms while the Atlantic has named only 5.  There are no signs the pattern is changing soon.  The main question is whether major Hurricane Lowell will make a turn back to the Hawaiian Islands?

Computer models are showing a sharp right turn in Lowell's future track that might bring some impacts to the Islands west of Honolulu.  The other 2 hurricanes should stay out to sea and not threaten any land areas.

If you look outside the central & eastern Pacific, there is not much tropical activity, especially in the Atlantic.

If we are to see any development during the next 10-14 days, it will have to come from a close in system.  There is a west to east band of disturbed weather along the northern Gulf extending out into the Atlantic.

The water vapor loop has an upper low over the southern gulf with a convoluted pattern flowing out from that trough along the northern Gulf.  There are no fronts around as we are in the transition time between Summer & Fall.

This labor Day weekend forecast should be basic summertime, hot & humid with spotty storms.  With this wave train along the northern Gulf, it appears Friday & Sunday might see higher rain chances.  But rain chances are there every day.

I've drawn in what I believe are these weak wave features on radar moving east to west.

I'm seeing hints of rotation on radar loops, but no model indicates development & NHC hasn't highlighted any areas to follow.  Just keep the umbrellas handy.  Hey, I have found some good news.

It's getting colder (30s & 40s) up in Alaska & northern Canada.  It's only a matter of time before we start seeing cold fronts.  FOX 8 had a graphic showing during the last 5 years, the 1st real (temps staying in 70s) cold front comes mid to late October.  I think most of us are ready for that change, but we still have many more 90+ days to endure before the "Fat Lady" sings.  Stay tuned!

Edouard Stalls Over East Texas, Northern Gulf Wave Train

During my 45-year on-air career in television, there were 2 slow moving storms that stood out for dropping excessive, deadly rain totals.  In 1997, Hurricane Danny came over us with no big impacts.  However, he came to a halt over Mobile Bay, dropping 40+" of rain on the western side of the bay.  In 2017, Hurricane Harvey roared into Texas as a Cat. 4 storm but stalled inland and stayed for over 2 days.  Rain totals were 40-45", causing major damage.  Edouard was a moderate Tropical Storm this week, but he too has stalled inland, dropping 20-25+ inches of rain on East Texas.

Oftentimes in late August into mid-September, the steering patterns become ill defined in the transition from summer to Fall.  Even though we're in an El Niño year that should keep any major hurricanes away from us, these little homegrown northern Gulf systems can cause major impacts.  We missed any problems from Edouard, but that lingering trough/weakness lingers along the northern Gulf coast.

Water vapor view has an upper low/wave moving our way for Thursday & Friday.  There is a weak rotation over Florida around Orlando.

No model develops any of these systems, but it should mean our daily rain chances will continue through this holiday weekend.

Until the upper pattern changes, September over the East will remain hot while the West has cooled down.  For the next 10-14 days, the tropics in the Atlantic should stay quiet.

Not so in the Pacific, where we have two Cat. 4 hurricanes and 3 Tropical Storms.

Right now, Hawaii looks to be between Karina going to the north and Lowell staying just to the south.  As the MJO heads towards phases 8 & 1, I look for the Atlantic Basin to get active the last two weeks of September into mid-October, when the cold fronts start coming.  Stay tuned!