NWS Now LOWERS Halloween Rain Chances, Western States Brace for Rain/Snow

 Yesterday I showed you that the NWS (National Weather Service) office in Slidell was calling for a 50-70% chance for rain on Halloween evening.  I questioned why they were that high/aggressive on their forecast since we have no fronts coming to act as a "trigger" to produce lift/rain.  Plus, today marks day 25 without rain..."when in drought, leave it out".  As usual, I like to show you the reasons for my thinking.  Let's begin with the new NWS Forecast.

Radar at 2 pm has all this rain over central & south Texas and one might assume that is coming our way.  IF you watch radar AND satellite loops, you would see why it is not.

With a deep low redeveloping along the upper West Coast trough, that rain over Texas plus the remains of Vance over Mexico will be drawn more to our north and west.  "But there's more" as Lee Zurik used to say.  Currently, there are no fronts around us, but lots of dry air.

We have this bubble of warm air over the Southeast with one tongue of dry surface air over us and another tongue of moisture/higher dew points surging over Texas into the central Plains.  In their discussion, NWS points out the "trigger" to give us rain might be a moisture boundary forming late Saturday night into Sunday.  The WPC's (Weather Prediction Center) graphics indicate just that. They actually form a frontal boundary on their map while I've drawn in a dark green dashed line that more aligns itself with their heavy rainfall totals.

So that is why I'm not jumping on the bandwagon about rainfall this weekend.  It's hard to break the dry cycle without a strong cold front (coming next Wednesday) or a strong upper disturbance.  

I just think 60% is way too high.  20-30% seems more reasonable based on what I'm seeing.  Who will get the rains?  The West Coast & Rockies.

A deep storm NW of Seattle is energizing the "Pineapple Express" of moisture from Hawaii. That will bring us a much better chance for rains here late next Tuesday into Wednesday.  Finally, this week's podcast from Orange Beach is out.  If you want to watch it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  For all my subscribers, IF you can't open it, let us know in the comment section on this FB post.  Coming to the podcast in 4 weeks, Val & Bob's wedding cruise.  You don't want to miss it.  Stay tuned!

NWS increasing Rain Chances, Pineapple Express Showing Signs of Life, New Podcast

Gosh, it hasn't rained since Oct. 4th (24 days) so any chances for showers should be welcomed...except if they come on this Halloween weekend.  Models are showing and NWS is indicating high rain chances for Saturday PM into Sunday midday.  Now it's hard to disagree with our improved model technology, except my past experience tells me it's often hard to break out of a dry spell unless there is a "Triggering Mechanism" (surface front, upper disturbance).  Let's begin with the NWS thinking.

 

I agree with their "Rain? Seriously???"  70% on Saturday PM is pretty aggressive when there is no cold front involved.  I like to track features on satellite loops, but all the features are far away from us.  There is a strong upper low NW of Seattle, the remains of Trop. Storm Vance moving into Mexico and the hints of moisture spreading from Hawaii with the sub-tropical jet stream (Hawaiian Express).

                            

But where is the trigger to produce showers for us this weekend?  We have no fronts around.

We do have the surface high off the East Coast with a warm bubble of air all the way up to Green Bay.  70+ dew points are showing up over south Texas so low level moisture is on the increase.  But what will trigger our weekend showers?  Models show it.  NWS is forecasting it, so all local stations are calling for it.  I'm just tossing out the past issues of breaking out of dry spells.  I'd like to see something on satellite/Water Vapor loops to confirm what models are showing.  Aside from the remains of Vance, I don't see much to trigger 70% rain chances.  We'll see.

 

Right now, radar is seeing a few showers heading into Texas.  Compare that to the moisture with the remains of Vance moving into Mexico.  I believe that moisture from Vance moves into Texas & Oklahoma and stays to our north and west.  Just trying to figure out what will break our current drought.  When in drought, leave it out.

I think the only thing certain regarding this weekend is the TIME CHANGE. We set our clock back one hour before you go to sleep Saturday night (Fall Back).  Tomorrow's podcast is about my trip back to Orange Beach after Hurricane Isaias.

The beach looked great and you can watch it by going to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber. Stay tuned!