Hawaii To Be Threaten, Cristobal Coming To Atlantic, MJO Podcast

The Tropics have come alive worldwide with the main focus later this week will be the threat of a Hurricane affecting the Hawaii Islands.  Model uncertainty can't say whether INVEST 93-C will go north or south of the Islands as a low level surface circulation has yet to form.  NHC is highlighting an area with a 90% chance (translation - It's gonna happen) with the next named storm on their list being Hernan.

I've circled all the threat areas and you can see none of them have any concentrated T-Storms yet.  The Atlantic Basin has also come to life.

The northern most area is heading out to sea and would be another wasted name if NHC upgrades it.  Two areas out in the Atlantic have higher chances, but there is a lot working against them.  The southern most system is on a lower latitude and will encounter the Caribbean wind shear, but it could bring some welcomed rains to the lesser Antilles.

The second system with the higher (60%) chances for development has a core cluster of storms with it and is likely to be named Cristobal later this week.  Models are turning it northward before it reaches the Islands and it should not affect the United States.  Besides wind shear and Saharan dust, the MJO is in phase 6, which is a sinking air phase.  But what is the MJO?  And why is it an important factor in tropical development?

That will be the focus of my podcast this week.  If you want to learn more about it, become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  Thanks to all who have renewed for a second year, and if you have been having trouble receiving my podcast, check your spam filter/folder.  The cost is $2/month making it affordable for all.  The other main local story is the Upper Heat dome coming our way.  Here it is today with Friday on the bottom.

That should cap any daytime heating storms from forming and allow our temps to reach the mid to upper 90s.  We've seen a few storms around today.

We still have 21 days left in August and they look to be above normal.  That's because we expect no tropical activity due to a sinking air phase of the MJO.  Go to bobbreck.com and sign up to learn more about it on this week's podcast.  Stay tuned!

NHC Increases Chances, Models Not Bullish, Cristobal Unlikely

 Not much has changed in thinking from yesterday as NHC believes there are two areas for possible development way out in the Atlantic in the MDR.  The first has the lower (20%) chance and is on a more southern track.  The second has a higher (50%) chance to be named sometime in the 3-5 day time frame.

The second system isn't fully off of Africa yet.  Neither looks very promising and both face hostile conditions ahead of them.

The first system is barely over warm enough waters, but more importantly, the western wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic should not allow much development, if any.  The second system has similar issues.

My guess is the first system won't be named, but the second might (Cristobal)  The average date for the third named storm is August 3rd so we are running about a week behind.  We all knew wind shear from an increasing El Nino would decrease the number of storms, but the MJO only has been in the Favorable (rising air) stage for June and early July.  Until the MJO gets into phases 8 & 1(Rising air), any tropcial formation will be difficult fighting shear & Saharan Dust.  I will try to explain

 the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) on this week's podcast.  Go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

It only costs $2/month and I thank all my subscribers who have renewed for a second year.  It we are to have another threat this season, it will most likely come from a system that forms in the Gulf or east of Florida.

I've circled two clusters of storms but neither will develop or affect us.  The real tropical danger appears to be for Hawaii, where NHC is giving the western most area a 90% chance to form.

Right now, it's still an area of disorganized T-Storms.  Our local weather will be typical August heat.

In fact, models are developing an upper high/ridge over us meaning our shower chances will go down allowing for some mid to upper 90s.  We can take the heat as long as we have no storms in the Gulf.  Stay tuned!