Dolly Making Comeback? Pay Attention Northern Gulf

 This is a special midday Saturday post based on what I'm seeing on Satellite views and information from NHC.  On my Thursday blog post, I mentioned 3 separate swirls/lows that were visible inland along the northern Gulf coast.  Yesterday I mentioned one of those lows moved offshore south of Pensacola.  On their 8 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) last night, NHC began highlighting an area over the northern Gulf for possible development giving it a low chance (10%).

Currently, this system has clusters of disorganized storms around it.  I've drawn in (white arrows) the upper flow that is from the SW on the northern side, but NE on the southern side.  In addition, a tropical wave is moving across south Florida complicating the pattern.  The current wind shear is highest along the northern coastal Gulf, but weakens down over the Gulf.

We'll see if NHC increases the probability for development on their 1 PM TWO.  They have scheduled a Recon plane for Monday, if needed, just off the coast SW of Houma.  If this season has shown us anything, don't expect rapid development especially since the MJO is not in the favorable (rising air) phase.   I may do a special podcast later this afternoon if I have additional information that you need to know about.  Go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

I do more than just re-read what NHC posts on their website.  I tell you what I'm seeing and give you different possibilities/solutions that might happen.  The cost is only $2/month.  Thanks to the hundreds that have renewed for another year.  The other thing of interest today is what's left of Dolly out in the Atlantic.

It appears to me that Dolly is trying to make a comeback.  However, she is heading towards increasing upper wind shear and that's why NHC only gives her a 10% chance to re-develop.

IF she can survive the wind shear and reaches the Bahamas with anything left, then we might need to pay attention.  Remember Hurricane Andrew in the El Nino summer of 1992.

Note, he was a weak system until he was north of Puerto Rico and exploded as he approached Florida. There are several models that keep Dolly's DNA intact and then develop her around Florida. The Canadian (rarely verifies) is most bullish.  The top view is valid for next Thursday 9-3.

The middle view is valid for Saturday 9-5 with the bottom valid for Monday 9-7.  Is that solution likely?  Probably not, but some of the AI models try to bring something into the Gulf.

I mention these solutions not to scare you, but to make you aware that we are approaching the peak of the Hurricane season and, despite the super El Nino, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 tells us what can happen.  A comparison to 2025 shows we are behind that pace, but remember how active it got in mid September into October.

You can see how this year ranks compared to 150+ previous years.  Despite being so slow so far, let's not think we are done for 2026. I believe the total numbers will be less than 10, but that still leaves 4-6 storms to go.  If you want to hear & see my podcast later today, go subscribe.  The next NHC TWO comes out at 1 PM.  Stay tuned!

Tale Of Two Oceans, Dolly Dissipates But Not So Fast, Northern Gulf Swirl

Way back in April, when the first preseason predictions for the 2026 hurricane season came out, the researchers were saying that, with an increasing El Niño coming on, tropical activity would be up in the Pacific Basins and down in the Atlantic Basin.   Kudos to those early predictions, as the central & eastern Pacific have seen 12 named storms while the Atlantic has seen only 4 very weak storms.  The satellite view tells the story.

While the Pacific has one Typhoon (orange), 3 Tropical storms (green), and 3 tropical depressions (purple), the Atlantic has just the remnants of Dolly.

What a different tale of two Oceans.  The Atlantic is essentially dead due to all the dry air and upper lows.

NHC downgraded Tropical Storm Dolly to just a remnant low or open tropical wave at 10 AM based on satellite & buoy information.  However, Dolly has made a comeback this PM.

Look at these two views 5 hours apart.

So the question is, will NHC reverse course and upgrade Dolly back to a Tropical Storm?  My guess is no, at least in the short term, unless the satellite information shows continuing organization.  What I find interesting is that two models keep what's left of Dolly's DNA heading towards Florida and into the Gulf for next week.  1st view is the Canadian model, valid for next Thursday.

They bring Dolly into South Florida before turning her back to the NNE.  The GFS is different.

It takes what's left of Dolly westward well south of us into south Texas.  The Euro sees nothing so far out; I'm not reading much into any solution.  Of more concern is a close in development that could bring significant rains here for this Sunday and next Monday.  I mentioned the lows that were inland yesterday. One swirl has now moved into the northern Gulf south of Pensacola.

The upper Heat Dome over the west is expected to shift eastward north of us.  That would stop the northern Gulf low from moving NNE and start drifting back to the west.  That was shown on both Zack & Grace's FOX 8 programs this morning.

Could we have another Bertha-type system for next week?  Maybe.  NHC is not highlighting this area, and no model develops anything either.  Since we are not in MJO phases 8 or 1, development would be slow and limited.  Still, I want you to pay attention for a "homegrown system".

To learn more about any northern Gulf development this weekend, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  Enjoy the final weekend of August and stay tuned!