AI Hinting At Storm In NE Gulf, NWS Heavy Rain Potential Next 2 Days

 All of the main computer models develop named storms in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) this coming week, which is what we expect to happen during an El Nino summer.  Right now, satellite views are seeing the beginning of a swirl south of the Mexican Coast moving to the WNW.  NHC is giving this area an 90% chance for development during the next 1-2 days.

NHC indicates the Atlantic Basin will stay quiet for the next 7 days.  However, One of the AI model runs continues to hint at some development in the NE Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame. the top view is valid for Monday July 20th.

The bottom view is valid for Tuesday July 21st.  IF something were to form, we would be on the dry side with little impacts.  It's that time of the year when we start paying more attention for Tropical Development .  The Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is still keeping the MDR (Main Development Region) quiet, but note the dust doesn't cover the northern Gulf.

My next podcast will focus on potential close in tropical development during the next 10-14 days.  To see & hear my opinions, you'll need to join as a subscriber for $2/month. Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  The  short term main concern for the next 1-2 days is the potential for heavy, flooding rainfall along the northern Gulf coast.  NWS highlights the dangers.

The WPC's rain totals have the bullseye of heaviest rains away from SE LA/MS. However, we already know that our slow moving daily storms can dump 2-4"+ totals in an hour overwhelming our pumping capacity.  That's why NWS is concerned about the next two days.  Here's the set up.  An upper heat dome covers the Rockies and northern states with a broad upper trough covering the Southeast.

There is an upper low over Kentucky that will move to the East Coast and that will drag down a frontal boundary closer to us.

You can see the 100+ temps over the Rockies where 2 weeks ago they were in the 40s & 50s.  Locally, it's our usual daytime heating storms firing off.

Today's storms are more concentrated north of Lake P.  However, the leftover cloud cover is keeping most folks less hot.

After Tuesday, we'll see a sharp drop off in rain chances as the upper trough leaves and the heat dome builds over us.  Finally,

The International Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is less than 2 weeks away.  Come join this year's President Liz Murrill & her Admiral of the Fleet (2027 President) Tab Troxler for three days of great fishing, good food, live local bands and the kid's daily crab races.  We have a grand prize ($10,000) that is awarded Saturday night during the final awards ceremony.  Give yourself a chance to win by registering at tarponrodeo.org. Winner need not be present.  So even if you don't fish, don't party and don't come down to Grand Isle, you could be $10,000 richer just by registering for $50.  Help make the 2026 Rodeo a huge success.  Stay tuned!

MJO Going Favorable, Daily Storm Chances Going Up

Back when I was on-air, the terms I used for daily rain chances during the summer were BELOW NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL.  On a typical summer day, rain coverage was 40-50%, so below normal/average was 20-30%, and above being 60-80%+.  In the absence of an upper high, it's going to rain somewhere across the Gulf South every day.  Today's example points out the problem/challenge forecasters have.  The predicted 60% coverage was spot on.  However, 75% of the metro population lives in Orleans, Jefferson & St. Bernard where the heaviest rains (2-4") fell causing widespread flooding. Look at the radar views with the time stamp at the bottom.

Most of Kenner & the Metairie lakefront west of the Causeway missed the flooding rains, but you can see who got hammered.  The daily difficulty in pinpointing location is called uncertainty.  We're certain it will rain somewhere, but uncertain where somewhere will be!  I say that because NWS is hyping the heavy rain potential for Sunday & Monday.

50-80% on Sunday and 70-90% for Monday is pretty strong stuff, knowing our atmosphere is full of moisture at this time of the year.  Let's pay attention while driving around the next 2 days and avoid the usual flooded underpasses and low spots.  As for the Tropics, the MJO is heading into phase 8 (favorable-rising air) and we need to pay attention for close in development since the MDR is ruled by dry air, upper lows and wind shear.  The Water Vapor view shows us that.

In the short term (3-5 days), nothing will happen over the MDR & Caribbean.  But farther down the road,(7-10 days) there could be some close in development over the NE Gulf and/or along the East Coast.  Why?  One AI model has a weak low SE of the mouth of the River for NEXT Saturday. Also, there appears to be an area along the Carolina coasts that could develop.

Hey, that's a week out, but the AI modeling seems to be beating the GFS & European models lately.  I feel like a sportswriter waiting for the beginning of Saint's training camp & preseason games. All we can do is speculate and give opinions.  I'd rather be like Joe Friday on Dragnet..."Just the facts Ma'am"!  So here are the facts. We have several boundaries and clusters of storms in the Tropics.

A well defined upper low in Illinois will be diving towards the East Coast and that will bring a surface frontal boundary near us.  That could focus the heavy rain threat along the northern Gulf for the next several days.  Today's rains were just the usual land/sea boundaries triggering storms.

Later next week, the western heat dome will begin to shift eastward and dry us out.  For today, we're rain-cooled.

We have yet to have a prolonged heat wave (2-3+ weeks) this summer and we won't see one this week.  As you drive around the next 2-3 days, pay attention to where you are if you get caught in a heavy downpour.  2 weeks from tonight I will pull someone's name as the winner of the GRAND PRIZE ($10,000) of the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.

We have a line up of great bands, food vendors along with the usual kid's games.  If you can't make it down to Grand Isle, you can still register for the Grand Prize by going to tarponrodeo.org.  With only about 2,000 folks who register, your odds of winning are pretty good.  So will I be calling your name? that's up to you.  Stay tuned!