Gulf & Caribbean Remain a Hostile Environment, Rain Chances here Decreasing.

With the start of the 2026 Hurricane season only 4 days away, the upper flow pattern almost guarantees we will not have a named storm in the next 7-10 days.  Although we have abundant tropical low-level moisture in place with clusters (lime green circles) of T-Storms, there is a deep upper trough that is creating plenty of wind shear.

Upper lows create a difficult/hostile environment for tropical development.  What has changed over the past several days is the boundary of tropical moisture has shifted from us to the eastern Gulf.  As the Bermuda high backs off, this should allow some much-needed rainfall for South Florida.

You can see how the WPC's 7-day rain totals (bottom graphic) have the heaviest rainfall (4-7"+) across most of drought-stricken Florida.  For us, our forecasting challenge will be the movement of upper lows to our west.

Will the current cluster of T-storms along the Texas coast fizzle or hold together?  I'm thinking they will weaken, but the FOX 8 extended favors another day of above normal showers.

I'm seeing a trend back to basic summertime where the spotty daytime heating showers give us 30-50% coverage.  We have jumped into the top ten wettest Mays with 9.22" at MSY.

I'm thinking we should have no problem cracking the top 5 as we only need less than an inch in the next 4 days. Finally,

My next podcast airs on Thursday and is about my vacation to New Mexico to see my older sons.  To see & hear it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  We'll be focusing on the Tropics & hurricanes during the next several months as my podcasts will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE Face Book blog posts.  You can watch your local favorite weathercaster repeat what NHC tells them, or you can sign up to hear what Bob thinks based on nearly 50 years of forecasting experience.  Nobody has my knowledge/credentials plus experience that has earned your trust, and it's why Ch. 8 has me as their Hurricane Consultant for another summer. At $2/month, my podcast is a no-brainer.  Stay tuned!

Tropics Showing Signs Of Life, Not Done With Rains Here

 After watching last night's & this morning's weather programs showing models drenching us with more rain, plus NWS issuing a new Flash Flood watch, we decided to cancel our fishing trip.  Obviously the models overplayed the storms as we have seen way more sunshine and fewer showers allowing us to warm back into the mid-upper 80s.

Even though there is less coverage today, it is concentrated once again over south Mississippi where most rivers are out of their banks flooding many roadways.  Our current monthly rain total in Kenner is 9.08" and we certainly should crack the top ten wettest if not today, then tomorrow.

While most of us have escaped the rain so far today, yet another upper system will approach late Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain chances again.  Eventually, the persistent upper trough over the western 2/3rds of the nation should lift northward allowing our rain chances to get back to typical summertime (30-40%) coverage.

At 2 pm, radars are seeing clusters of storms from Texas to the Carolinas with Florida remaining dry.  The only frontal boundary is located far to the north so the triggers for storms are upper disturbances & daytime heating.

It actually is hotter north of the front where the sun is shining.  Low to mid 70 dew points tell me we have reached the awful summer muggy feel over most of the South.   

We have another two days of above normal rain chances before fewer showers are around Friday into the weekend.  Unless we have an upper high over us (and that's not happening in the next 7-10 days), it will rain somewhere each day across SE LA/MS.  That's basic summertime.  Now to the Tropics.  I indicated yesterday there were signs of activity increasing.  Today's satellite views confirm that trend even though NHC isn't talking about it yet.  The CAG (Central America Gyre) is right on schedule.

IF we have any early season Tropical activity, it's usually in the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf and the satellite views show just that.

One reason NHC isn't highlighting these areas is because of strong upper level WSW wind shear that would limit or prevent development.  However, I grabbed these graphics off of Weather Bell Analytics' web page (I'm a subscriber)with Joe Bastardi. 

The top view is the Euro Tropical Development chances during the next 10-14 days with the bottom showing low pressure (blue colors) across the North Central Gulf.  Computer models are hinting at possible formation in the 9-12 day time frame.  It's why you should go to bobbreck.com and sign up for my podcast for this coming hurricane season.

Even AccuWeather's site highlights areas (yellow) of greatest possible impacts.  My podcast will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE website giving you what I think and why.  Go sign up and give me a try.  Our next podcast will come out on Thursday recapping my recent vacation trip to New Mexico. It's not always about the weather.  Stay tuned!