New Named Storm, Gulf Becoming Disturbed, Several August Fronts

This has been a really strange Hurricane Season so far.  Today NHC named a swirl southeast of Bermuda Tropical Storm Fernand, the 6th named storm so far.  Yet none of the named storms have really had any major land impacts.  With the center of the Atlantic Ridge located so far out over the eastern Atlantic, storms have been turning northward around that ridge.

Tropical Storm Fernand certainly doesn't look like much on satellite views, but a Recon plane found a well-defined center, so NHC named it.  Its track will keep him well east of Bermuda, another fish storm.

So the other area NHC is following would normally have us concerned since it takes 99 L into the Caribbean.

But none of the models develop this system, and NHC is only giving it a 20% chance.  We'll watch, but not worry.  However, look at the Gulf.

The leftover frontal boundary has settled down over the Gulf, allowing clusters of storms to develop.  NHC isn't talking about it, but I get nervous when late August fronts come down into the Gulf.  I'll have more about this on tonight's podcast, but you have to subscribe ($2/month) to hear & see me at bobbreck.com

One benefit of getting the podcast is IF you have to evacuate, you can get the podcast on your phone, no matter where you go.  That's a smart reason to sign up.  Speaking of more fronts coming, look at the upper flow bringing down the Canadian chill.

Don't start getting out the sweaters & jackets yet here.  Notice the dew points in the 60s will filter over the North Shore for Sunday.  A secondary front will push through late Tuesday-Wednesday, and even the South Shore will feel the cooler nights later next week.

For today, most storms are well south of New Orleans.

So without the rains, most of us are 90+, which won't change until that second front arrives midweek.  Let's watch the Gulf for the next several days, as nothing out in the Atlantic will be our problem.  Stay tuned!

Wonderful Soaking Rains, Erin Overhype, No Fernand Yet

 The last week in August often is brutal across the Gulf South.  While cold fronts start coming down over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, they lack the push to get down to us.  So the only way we get relief is when we have daily storms that soak us and produce a cloud cover that limits heating.  Today is such a day as a weak leftover frontal boundary lingers along the northern Gulf coast.

I'm posting early today so these temps are from 2 PM.  Feels almost nice outside!

That boundary will sag slowly off out coast tomorrow bringing us some drier air on Sunday & Monday. But that's not the real front coming mid next week.  Look farther to the north where there's a deep low over southern Canada that is drawing down cooler air.

It'll take awhile to get down to us, but later next week highs might stay in the 80s!  That's the good news.  The bad is sometimes August fronts that move into the Gulf can spin up tropical activity.  That's how Hurricane Alicia developed back in 1983.  Hard to believe it took until August 15th to get the 1st named storm of the season.  Alicia grew into a major Cat. 3 hurricane bringing significant damage to Galveston & Houston.  Nothing indicates that in today's model runs.  Hurricane Erin is now racing into the north Atlantic.

Found a interesting story on Accuweather.com comparing Erin to Super Storm Sandy.  They talked about how journalists took a model forecast of 100 foot seas and made it sound like reality.  Other tried to make it sound like Erin's size was unusual.  That's because the satellite signature overplayed what was happening at the surface.  Look at Sandy's far greater area of Tropical Storm winds compared to Erin.  I have often complained about the overhype of storms like we've never seen this before.  Nice to read an article confirming what I've been seeing.  Nothing to over hype today in the Tropics.

  

While Erin races into cooler waters, NHC is watching 2 areas that MIGHT develop this weekend.  Neither will be a problem for the United States.

The northern one might brush Bermuda, while the southern system could reach the Caribbean.  Any development will be limited by our friend, the Saharan Dust.

Look at how stable the Caribbean & Gulf are.  No models bring anything over these areas for the next 7-10 days.  That'll get us into September..  However, look back at last September.

With Erin, we are at the same name (E storm) as last August.  But look what happened in 
September & October.  10 names in 2 months!   It's why I've been suggesting subscribing to my new podcast at bobbreck.com

I'm having fun expanding on what I can post on my WVUE Face Book blog.  Next week, my first guest will be former WVUE Chief Meteorologist David Bernard who replaced me when I retired in 2016.  David has a new career now, but you won't be able to see & hear him unless you go subscribe at $2/month.  That's not a typo, $2/month equates to 7 cents a day.  Never done a podcast?  Not a problem as we made it super easy.  Go to my personal website, bobbreck.com and sign up.  David Bernard is my first guest.  I'll have many more & you could help me decide who you want to see & hear again.  NHC might name our next storm shortly, but it won't be our problem.   Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!