The Dry Streak Is Over, The Drought Is Not, Grief Support on Monday

 Cudos to the computer models for indicating days ago that we would have an end to our dry spell. Coverage has been 60-70% as called by NWS, but rain totals (less than .10") have barely wet the ground. We have no fronts or upper disturbances near us so what is causing the widespread light to moderate showers?  To me, it's a split in the upper flow right over SE LA/MS that enhances low level lift.

By far, the heaviest storms, with some thunder, have been in southern Mississippi around Wiggins. If these showers continue, they will impact the early Trick or Treaters.

Showers should diminish after dark, but we will continue with a small shower threat into next week since we have no front to dry us out.

You can see there is no cold air around and the higher dew points linger all along the Gulf coast back into south Texas. The NWS forecast lingering some showers into Sunday, lowering chances for Monday but bringing them back up for late Tuesday into Wednesday.

When we have no surface trigger (Front) or upper air feature to follow, it's hard to have certainty in the forecast.  So far, rain totals have been light, but radar returns indicate some good soakers are yet to come. Latest model runs have backed off on our Wednesday front bring us colder air.

It will be drier, but still mild.  Don't forget to set back your clocks before you go to bed tonight.  Finally, this coming Monday is our next Grief Support Coffee at Copeland Tower.

You don't have to be a resident to attend.  If you are struggling with the recent loss of a loved one, perhaps we can help.  Our discussions use the New Day Journal that we followed when I was at St. Catherine of Siena.  Come join us Monday on the hotel side of Copeland Tower in room 825.  You need not walk alone.  Stay tuned!

Upper Disturbances To bring Rain Chances, Relief Coming To Drought Areas

 Every Thursday the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln updates their Drought Monitor based on data through the previous Tuesday.  One look indicates it's pretty obvious who needs the rain and it's centered on Arkansas and north & western Louisiana.  Today marks day 26 without any rain at MSY.

FOX Weather had this graphic that places the heaviest rain totals to our north and along the East coast of Florida.  The "trigger" to produce our rain is seen as a well defined swirl on the Water Vapor loop.

Normally, the rains over Houston & south Texas would move over us in the 6-8 hour time frame.  However, this forecast is complicated by fast moving upper disturbances in the Sub-tropical jet stream and a persistent surface high over the Southeast that keeps pumping in dry air/lower dew points around it.

The really high dew points/tropical moisture (70+) are confined to south Texas and offshore from south LA/MS.  Even Houston's dew point is barely above 60.  Now combine that to several approaching upper systems and that lowers my confidence in any future forecasts for this weekend.

So most of the current rains to our west should go to our north while the second disturbance is triggering storms back over Arizona.  A look at the NWS weekend forecast keeps rain chances on Halloween at 50% (translation, I don't know!) and up to 70% for Sunday.

So what is the average person supposed to get out of the forecast?  1) our long dry spell will be ending, but when & where? 2) What does "not a washout" really mean?  To me it means there is a HIGH degree of uncertainty to this weekend's forecast.  Plus, as I have mentioned many times, "when in drought, leave it out."  I won't be surprised to get very little rain until our next front arrives early next Wednesday. 

The WPC's (Weather Prediction Center) rain total comparison has the heavier amounts for Saturday to our east down over the Gulf.

Their rain total forecast for next Wednesday's front has the heaviest amounts to our north & east.

What these maps tell me is many of us will finally see some rain this weekend into next week, but the amounts will not be much. The FOX 8 forecast pretty much says that with the higher chances coming next week with the cold front.

Don't forget the time change coming on Sunday morning.  Set the clocks back one hour.  Finally, at our Copeland Tower Halloween party this week, I was dressed as Willie Heffner while Valerie was my wicked witch!

Yes, those are two adult medications (Old fashion, Scotch/water) in front of us!  Tonight our dear neighbors (Inez & Emile Siegrist) are throwing us a pre-wedding party at CTL.  I'm going as Romeo and Valerie is...?  To be continued, pictures to follow.  Stay tuned!