NHC Increases Chances, Models Not Bullish, Cristobal Unlikely

 Not much has changed in thinking from yesterday as NHC believes there are two areas for possible development way out in the Atlantic in the MDR.  The first has the lower (20%) chance and is on a more southern track.  The second has a higher (50%) chance to be named sometime in the 3-5 day time frame.

The second system isn't fully off of Africa yet.  Neither looks very promising and both face hostile conditions ahead of them.

The first system is barely over warm enough waters, but more importantly, the western wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic should not allow much development, if any.  The second system has similar issues.

My guess is the first system won't be named, but the second might (Cristobal)  The average date for the third named storm is August 3rd so we are running about a week behind.  We all knew wind shear from an increasing El Nino would decrease the number of storms, but the MJO only has been in the Favorable (rising air) stage for June and early July.  Until the MJO gets into phases 8 & 1(Rising air), any tropcial formation will be difficult fighting shear & Saharan Dust.  I will try to explain

 the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) on this week's podcast.  Go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.

It only costs $2/month and I thank all my subscribers who have renewed for a second year.  It we are to have another threat this season, it will most likely come from a system that forms in the Gulf or east of Florida.

I've circled two clusters of storms but neither will develop or affect us.  The real tropical danger appears to be for Hawaii, where NHC is giving the western most area a 90% chance to form.

Right now, it's still an area of disorganized T-Storms.  Our local weather will be typical August heat.

In fact, models are developing an upper high/ridge over us meaning our shower chances will go down allowing for some mid to upper 90s.  We can take the heat as long as we have no storms in the Gulf.  Stay tuned!

Models Seeing Atlantic Activity Next Week, NHC Responds, Cristobal Coming Soon?

Yesterday I showed you three models that hinted at some kind of tropical development in the MDR (Main Development Region).  Today's model runs continue that same theme and NHC has responded by highlighting 2 areas in the Tropical Atlantic that will likely see development.  

Both these systems will be fighting the Saharan Dust layer to the north, but it appears they will stay far enough south so that the dust will have less influence. The Euro brings(Cristobal?) to the north east of the islands likely never threatening land areas.

The GFS has two systems taking a more southerly track.  The first heads into the strong wind shear across the Caribbean and dissipates, while the second tries to approach the Islands by 8-20.

I go back to what I've always said..."computer models struggle with weaker storms", so let's not read much into solutions 10-14 days away.  Remember the strong shear over the Caribbean.

So whatever tries to form out in the MDR will really struggle to get through the upper wind shear.  My concern is closer in formation, not coming from the Caribbean.

There are several clusters of disorganized T-Storms, but neither shows any signs of low level rotation.  With the MJO currently in phase 6 (sinking air), I really don't think anything will get started until the MJO goes back into phases 8/1 (rising air).  My podcast next week will focus on the influence of the MJO to tropical development and why that might be the most important reason/ingredient needed for formation.

If you want to see and hear about the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month.  Don't wait until we have another hurricane threat in the Gulf as we enter the most active period (Aug. 15 to Oct. 10th) of the 2026 season.  The season is about ready to explode in the Pacific.

The colors correspond to Yellow 20%, Orange 40% and Red 70%  There could be a threat for Hawaii later next week.  Stay tuned!