NHC Sending Up Alarms, Atlantic Basin Getting Active, Dexter Coming Soon

I'm posting early today, so Tropical Storm Dexter will probably be named this afternoon or later tonight.  The good news is he will be a "fish storm" moving well off the Carolina Coast and staying north of Bermuda.  Many of you have seen the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), where they have outlined 3 areas for development. Let's begin wide and then zoom in.

 

They're giving the orange-shaded area way out in the Atlantic a medium (40%) chance for development.  Looking at satellite views indicates there is NOTHING there yet.  However, several computer models are developing a weak storm later this week, and we know the models are always right?!!!  You can still see the Saharan Dust layer, so I think any development has to be limited.  Back closer to the U.S., NHC has 2 hatched areas for development. In the red shade, satellite views indicate we already have Dexter.

This uptick in activity comes as no surprise and is why I'm getting my new Podcast launched on Monday, August 11th.  It will supplement my WVUE Facebook page along with www.bobbreck.com. 

There is a yearly charge to subscribe ($24), making it very affordable ($2/month) to everyone who trusts my opinion.  You'll be able to see me, and we will eventually have graphics where I can draw on, like in the "good old days".  Don't wait until there's a tropical threat in the Gulf.  Sign up today so you'll be along for the launch on August 11th.

In August, frontal boundaries are ill-defined, unlike the Fall & Winter cold fronts. Slightly drier air has filtered down over the North Shore, keeping all the storms south of Lake Pontchartrain.

Today's storms might be farther to the north on Monday & Tuesday.  It all depends on where these weak boundaries are set up.  It's typical August hot, but not like the record heat of past years.

The extended is pretty useless until the cold fronts start coming or we have a tropical threat.  Don't wait for a storm in the Gulf to sign up for my podcast.

For the cost of one Powerball ticket ($2) per month, you can trust I will not alarm you 10-14 days ahead of time.  I am still FOX 8's Hurricane Consultant and will supplement their excellent graphics with my discussion from decades of experience.  Go sign up before the rush is on.  Stay tuned!

AI Claims Storm In Gulf Next Week, Time To Subscribe To New Podcast

Those of us who lived here most of our lives know that the Heart of Hurricane Season begins around August 15th and runs through Oct. 10th.  That's when the most storms form and the greatest intensity storms develop.  Once into early October, cold fronts start coming as the upper westerlies increase, turning the threat away from us.  But it's a long way until Oct. 10th, and the new A.I. model keeps trying to bring a hurricane into the Gulf around August 16th.

I point this out to encourage you to go to my blog and sign up for my new podcast coming August 11th.  Don't wait until the storm is upon us to try to subscribe, as the crush of people trying to sign up might crash our site.  

Sign up today for just $2/month.  We offer only one option, and that's a yearly subscription for $24.  IF you want to hear my voice during a Tropical threat, IF you want to get another opinion and not just what NHC puts out, then go sign up.  $2/month is a no-brainer.  There's a reason I was YOUR WEATHER AUTHORITY for 40+ years.  Knowledge (B.S. in Meteorology/Oceanography, University of Michigan 69) plus experience (54 years) equals your TRUST.  Today's paper had a story about how quiet the 2025 season has been so far.  But is the switch about to flip?

NHC is highlighting an area off the Carolina coast for development this week.

IF this were to form into Dexter, it's east of Florida heading out to sea.  Not our problem.  Coming off of Africa is nothing.

I am seeing a small rotation NW of Puerto Rico heading towards the Bahamas, but no model sees it, and it has no storms around it. The local forecast challenge is figuring out which local boundary will set up over you.

There is quite a change (better feel) in the air mass north of the frontal boundary.  We could actually get in on some drier air tomorrow & Monday.

Rain coverage is below normal (20%) as the main boundary was along the coast this morning.  I saw a video on FOX 8 that had 6 waterspouts at the same time along that boundary.

No rain means we're back to 90+.  No major changes are expected this week.  

Again, tropical activity is likely to ram up during the next 10-14 days.  Don't wait until the threat is here.  Go sign up for my podcast that begins on August 11th.  Thanks to all of you who have signed in already.   Stay tuned!