Zack Said It Best, No Snow Here, Big Warm Up Friday After Cold Start

For two days, we have been watching local weathercasters show us the GFS model that indicated the possibility for some snow here, especially north & east of Lake P.  Sure, they downplayed that chance since the Euro model didn't agree.  But no one told you why the chances for snow were not going to happen.  UNTIL this morning, when I saw Zack Fradella point out two valid reasons why we won't see snow.  1) lack of nearby snow cover, and 2)  This Arctic air mass isn't that cold.  We begin with the current snow cover.

With no snow cover over the Plains, the Arctic air coming out of Canada has time to modify, plus the super cold (40-50 below) has retreated northward towards the north pole.

So all the weather wanna-bees on the internet posting the GFS and screaming about snow here, forget about them.  Conditions are not right for us to have a repeat of last January.  There still will be more cold fronts coming, but the pattern remains progressive, resulting in a roller coaster temperature ride for the next 7 days.

 

Note, most nights are chilly with freezing on the North Shore. But daytime highs rise well above freezing, eliminating the chances for any snow here. With the center of the surface high moving over us tonight, winds will decrease, allowing temps to crash.

The core of the coldest air is moving to our east and north, making Florida colder than us.

Morning lows will require protection for tropical plants & pets, but pipes will be fine.  Today's clear skies reveal numerous fires to our west.

We could use some rain, but I don't see a lot coming with our next front on Saturday.  Friday should be a beautiful day before the cold returns late Saturday into Sunday. Finally...

Today, we recorded my next podcast featuring FOX 8 morning meteorologist Zack Fradella.  It will be ready for viewing next Tuesday.  However, you must be a subscriber ($2/month) to receive an email alerting you to its availability.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up. There will be many more Ch. 8 personalities coming in the next few months before we refocus on hurricanes.  Stay tuned!

Arctic Blasts Coming Southward. Gardeners Prepare For Freezes

 Those of you who subscribe to my podcast know about the "Polar Vortex", the scary term used to describe dips in the jet stream during the winter season.  This week's podcast dealt with what it is and how often it happens.  It's a common feature of EVERY winter.  Sometimes it closes off over the Great Lakes keeping us cold for weeks.  That hasn't happened yet this year as the dips in the jet have been very progressive (moving) so the bitter cold doesn't linger.  

I see more of the same during the next 10 days meaning the true Arctic cold will just brush SE LA/MS with the core going farther to our east.

As the first low lifts back into Canada, you can already see another diving down out of Canada.  The good news is the super bitter cold is NOT over eastern Canada but back over Alaska.

Will many locations see some freezing temps behind tonight's cold front?  Absolutely, but not tonight.  Here's the forecast lows for Thursday & Friday mornings.

There will a brief warm up for Friday PM into Saturday before another lobe of the Polar Vortex dives down for Sunday & Monday.  The GFS model hints there could be some frozen precip here on Sunday, but I don't see that as temps look to be too warm.  Could things change?  Certainly, so you snow geeks need to keep the faith!  

Just looking at the 3 pm temp map gives you an idea why I'm saying the core of the cold will stay to our north & east.  Typically, when we see super freezing temps down to the South Shore, you look to the air coming down from Montana, Colorado & Texas.  Cutbank, Denver are in the 50s with Texas in the 60s.  RIGHT NOW, the next 10 days look generally below normal, but I don't see any pipe busting freezes coming.  Historically, the next 2 weeks are the coldest time of our Winter season.

Clouds are coming over us from the NW and you'll need the heavy weather gear later this evening as the winds shift to the north and increase.  The chill hasn't arrived yet, but it will after dark.

The 7 day has one front coming for tonight, another for Saturday PM with another next week.  What we'll need to pay attention to is that Arctic super cold in Alaska.  With the upper pattern having lobes of the Polar Vortex coming down every 2-3 days, we don't want that Alaska air to start flowing into the lower 48.  Regardless, the Great Lakes snow machine will be in full bloom and the snow cover will grow.  Then again, it's mid January and that's what's supposed to happen.  I do see another thaw coming towards the end of this month.  Stayed tuned!