Tropics Showing Signs Of Life, Not Done With Rains Here

 After watching last night's & this morning's weather programs showing models drenching us with more rain, plus NWS issuing a new Flash Flood watch, we decided to cancel our fishing trip.  Obviously the models overplayed the storms as we have seen way more sunshine and fewer showers allowing us to warm back into the mid-upper 80s.

Even though there is less coverage today, it is concentrated once again over south Mississippi where most rivers are out of their banks flooding many roadways.  Our current monthly rain total in Kenner is 9.08" and we certainly should crack the top ten wettest if not today, then tomorrow.

While most of us have escaped the rain so far today, yet another upper system will approach late Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain chances again.  Eventually, the persistent upper trough over the western 2/3rds of the nation should lift northward allowing our rain chances to get back to typical summertime (30-40%) coverage.

At 2 pm, radars are seeing clusters of storms from Texas to the Carolinas with Florida remaining dry.  The only frontal boundary is located far to the north so the triggers for storms are upper disturbances & daytime heating.

It actually is hotter north of the front where the sun is shining.  Low to mid 70 dew points tell me we have reached the awful summer muggy feel over most of the South.   

We have another two days of above normal rain chances before fewer showers are around Friday into the weekend.  Unless we have an upper high over us (and that's not happening in the next 7-10 days), it will rain somewhere each day across SE LA/MS.  That's basic summertime.  Now to the Tropics.  I indicated yesterday there were signs of activity increasing.  Today's satellite views confirm that trend even though NHC isn't talking about it yet.  The CAG (Central America Gyre) is right on schedule.

IF we have any early season Tropical activity, it's usually in the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf and the satellite views show just that.

One reason NHC isn't highlighting these areas is because of strong upper level WSW wind shear that would limit or prevent development.  However, I grabbed these graphics off of Weather Bell Analytics' web page (I'm a subscriber)with Joe Bastardi. 

The top view is the Euro Tropical Development chances during the next 10-14 days with the bottom showing low pressure (blue colors) across the North Central Gulf.  Computer models are hinting at possible formation in the 9-12 day time frame.  It's why you should go to bobbreck.com and sign up for my podcast for this coming hurricane season.

Even AccuWeather's site highlights areas (yellow) of greatest possible impacts.  My podcast will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE website giving you what I think and why.  Go sign up and give me a try.  Our next podcast will come out on Thursday recapping my recent vacation trip to New Mexico. It's not always about the weather.  Stay tuned!

 

Tropical Activity Next Week? Will Our Rains Ever End?

 The official start to our Hurricane Season is June 1st, but we often see activity begin in late May.  In fact, looking at the past decade plus, we see many seasons with named storms in April & May.  Climatologically, the average date of the first named storm is June 20th.  I found this old graphic that doesn't include 2024-25.  In 2024, Alberto was named on June 19th while in 2025 Andrea was named on June 23rd.

Typically, a disturbance develops in the western Caribbean or Southeastern Gulf around what is described as the Central American Gyre (CAG).

Today's cloud loop hints at a weak swirl down south of Belize.  Several internet posts are saying there could be development there sometime during the next 7-10 days.  Duh!  That should come as no surprise, but with the current set up, IF anything does form, it should be steered into central or south Florida where they really need rain.  The question for us is...When will these rains end?  The end is not far away as satellite & radar indicate right now.

Clearly, the bulk of the rains are north & east with much of Louisiana seeing clouds move from the NE to SW.  Only over us are clouds still streaming in off the Gulf. I'm encouraged by the most recent update from the National Weather Service (NWS).

Perhaps they are thinking some of the drier air in the upper levels over the western Gulf will come our way lowering our rain chances.  That's what I'm thinking so Captain Hylton and I will try fishing Tuesday PM and on Wednesday.  Rain chances will depend where these upper disturbances move.

The main jet stream has retreated to the north leaving behind these weak, hard to forecast lows.  No fronts are around and the only reason we're not hot yet is the cloud cover & rain.  Look how warm it is up north.

It's hotter in North Dakota than here!  The dew points show where the stalled frontal boundary is located.  St. Louis is in the dry air (49) while not far to the east Louisville (69) feels just like us.  Hopefully this rainy pattern has started to break down, but the FOX 8 extended in the short term stays wet.

Just keep up with the radar on your FOX 8 Weather App in case more heavy rain develops.  I'm going fishin' !  My next podcast will be about Albuquerque & Santa Fe.  To see it, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  A smart investment since there could be some early season tropical activity.  Stay tuned!