Pacific Has Major Typhoon, Atlantic Quiet For Now, Weak Front Here

There is a weak cold front that will move into the Gulf South this weekend, increasing our rain chances and bringing some cooling relief.  But since this is mainly a Hurricane Blog, I begin with yet another Major Hurricane way out in the Pacific.  This is Typhoon Dolphin (same as hurricane) with winds of 145 mph, down from 160 mph yesterday.  Fortunately, it is many days from affecting any land areas.

Dolphin is tracking north of Guam and could impact Korea or Japan down the road.  In the EPAC, Fausto has dissipated, with Genevieve downgraded to a tropical storm as she moves over colder waters.  She once was a Cat. 5.

Back in our part of the world, there is a large circulation coming off of Africa, but the Saharan Dust will not allow development.

Several of the AI models are hinting something coming off of Africa in the 10-14 day time frame, but that is too far out to worry about.  IF we have any development in the next week, it would have to come closer in along the many boundaries sinking down from the north.

No model shows anything forming & NHC isn't highlighting anything either.

We might be able to sneak a weak frontal boundary over us for this weekend.  That would make us less hot as clouds and rain chances increase.

One such boundary is very close to us this afternoon.

Without our daily T-Storms, our highs reach the mid to upper 90s.

Let's hope this weak front makes it close to give us some needed rainfall and relief from the brutal heat. Trust my podcast subscribers enjoyed hearing my opinions about the rest of this hurricane season yesterday.  To join us, go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  Stay tuned!

East Coast Trough To Deepen, less Hot Here, Next Podcast Tomorrow

 The upper air pattern is changing across the lower United States as the Heat Dome retrogrades (moves) back to the Rockies and the upper trough over the eastern states deepens.  That trough currently has brought flooding rains to the Northeast along with much cooler temperatures. In some areas, folks might even need light jackets!

As the trough deepens, a frontal boundary will sag southward closer to the northern Gulf increasing our rain chances and making us less hot.  You can see that boundary on the Atmospheric Moisture plot.

Another thing the upper trough has done is brought cold fronts cooling down the waters off the East coast.  You can even see some cooler waters leftover from last week's Bertha over the eastern Gulf.

NHC sees no tropical activity for the next 7 days, perhaps much longer.  Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the Tropics Worldwide and give you my ideas for the rest of this Hurricane Season.  Could we see the updated forecast coming out next week lower the numbers further?  You'll need to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber to my podcast.

The cost is a modest $2/month to find out what does Bob think?  Go sign up before the heart (Aug-Sept) of the hurricane season arrives.  Locally, we'll be watching the progress of a cold front as it tries to get closer to us.

You can see how much drier (lower dew points) are behind the frontal boundary.  Seldom do fronts reach us during July & August.  There is an interesting feature over the Eastern Gulf.

Tampa radar indicates the hint of a mid level spin, but NHC isn't talking about it and models don't show anything forming.  Upper wind shear is still around so any development would be limited.  Something to watch.  We've seen a few brief showers around today, but the better chances arrive Thursday PM.

Belle Chasse had such a cooling shower.

For the next 5-7 days, the temperature trend will be downward because the rain chances go up.  There is a big difference between 95-98 and 88-92.  The heat warnings should be dropped for the near term. Beware some of the T-Storms the next few days will be strong to severe with lots of lightning & heavy downpours.  Stay tuned!