Another Wasted Name, Dolly, Edouard Coming Soon?

NHC has named the third storm of the season, but it wasn't either of the 2 features in the MDR.  Nope, it was the swirl way out in the Atlantic that might not even last 24 hours.  I understand technology allows much greater data coming from areas of the Globe previously not possible, but naming storms that last only a day and affect no one makes trying to compare records from past history meaningless.  But let's look at Tropical Storm Cristobal. I've circled all the clusters of storms with Cristobal being the one farthest north in the Atlantic.

As you can clearly see, the center of Cristobal is totally exposed with the deep T-Storms being blown off to the SE.  So why name it?  NHC said a satellite pass over it indicated a small area SE of the center had winds of 40-45 mph.  With such a hostile environment and a short lived future, in the past this system would never have been named.  But let's move on to the two features that could be our next 2 names out in the Atlantic MDR.

The westernmost system,  designated INVEST 92-L, is likely to be named first, and models bring it into the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico before it weakens.  The system behind it already has a swirl, but it's likely to take a track farther north of the Islands and P.R. The other 2 features are closer to home.

The top view has the remains of Derechos that plowed through the Ohio Valley yesterday.  A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan.  None of the models develop either system.  So all we have to talk about locally is the building heat dome.

The reason we are less hot is some T-Storms formed right along the lake breeze front.  Look at these radar pics with the time stamp at the bottom.

These storms produced 1-3" of rainfall and had lots of lightning.  Look for rain chances to go down as the upper high strengthens.

The other major story today was the total eclipse seen on Satellite views.

I still find it amazing what you can see on satellite loops.  Another focus will be the potential Hurricane impacts for Hawaii this weekend.  NHC has designated it Potential Tropical Cyclone 1.

The cone is right over all the Islands now.  But remember, models don't handle weak systems well and PTC 1 remains very disorganized.  Still, travelers need to be aware of potential impacts if heading that way this weekend.  Stay tuned!

Cristobal Maybe In Atlantic, Euro Crushes Hawaii, MJO Podcast Is Out

Not unexpectedly, the tropical Atlantic MDR is showing signs of life.  In fact, there is a whole wave train coming across Africa that will result in more possible development later this month.  However, 1) we know we are in an El Nino year with strong upper shear, 2) the Saharan Dust layer remains strong and 3) perhaps most importantly, our part of the world in the MJO Phase 6,(sinking air).

There is a cluster of storms over the western Caribbean that should drift into Belize with 3 distinct systems out in the Atlantic.  NHC is highlighting only one with the 2nd being a system way north heading out to sea.

It would be a shame if NHC gives a name to the northern most system, but models are hinting that the southern system should become Cristobal.  OK, even if that happens, look at the gauntlet of hostile environment conditions it will have to struggle through.

My guess is NHC will name it Cristobal, but it will struggle to become much more than what Bertha was for the northern Gulf.  Hopefully, it will bring much needed rains to the Islands & Puerto Rico.  Again, with the MJO in Phase 6, the rising air is over the Pacific and not the Atlantic.

My podcast coming out today is about the MJO and what it is.  To see and hear that podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  The cost is just $24/year or $2/month.  That's the cost of one Power Ball ticket, but you'll feel a winner with each podcast!  

Locally, we have nothing going on except an upper heat dome that will dry us out and allow temps to soar to 95-100 for the next 4-5 days.  By the way, NHC has just designated the two areas out in the Atlantic 92-L & 93-L.   That tells me Cristobal might be named for that northern system that will affect no one.  It's difference in the EPAC.

One model (Euro) hammers all of the Hawaiian Island with heavy rains and strong winds.  If you have travel plans there during the next 5-7 days, you may be impacted.

As you can see, we have some serious heat coming for the next 5-10 days so use common sense if working or playing outdoors.  Stay tuned!