Ice/Snow Will Shut Down Travel, Only Rain Here, Hard Freeze Next Week

Geez, I'm getting texts on my phone from Entergy warning of power outages and network news hyping a winter storm that happens most years during January & February.  It makes me nervous hearing about doom & gloom.  Let's be perfectly clear. Yes, this will be a major storm for many, in fact, crippling communities for days.  But for us, we have NO ice concerns as it will be too warm.

Our concern will come next week when the Arctic air will require most of us to drip our water.

Watches and warnings are up from New Mexico to Boston, and a large part of the nation will be impacted.

Zack created a graphic that I thought clearly defined who is at the greatest risk for frozen precip. and it's NOT here.  In fact, he pointed out we will have the slight risk (orange/red shades) for some strong T-Storms since we will be in the warm air sector into Sunday morning.

The Entergy texts for power outages are mainly for areas north of a line from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge to McComb line.  As the wording says, impacts will be "crippling".  So what are the uncertainties?  There is an upper disturbance off of California that will track across the southern states.

Will it "phase" with the main lobe of the Polar Vortex and create a meridional (north to south) flow out of Canada? That would drag down a bitterly (35-45 below) cold air mass in Canada.

I have often underestimated the strength of Arctic air, as it is very dense and once it's moving (mass + motion) it's hard to stop.  I like the current FOX 8 forecast that I believe is the worst case scenario.

Mid to upper 20s for the South Shore would require dripping the water Sunday night into Monday AM & again on Tuesday.  If you subscribe to the Bob Breck podcast ($2/month), I am doing a special podcast later this afternoon to expand on my views.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  This event is still 3 days away, plenty of time to prepare your yards.  Watch FOX 8 at 4 & 5 for the latest model information.  Stay tuned!

Southern Ice Storm, Snow Farther North, Freeze Here Monday & Tuesday

I haven't seen much change in model guidance over the south that changes what I posted yesterday.  As of Wednesday afternoon, everything points to an all-rain event here on both sides of Lake Pontchartrain with the slight chance for some sleet or flurries on the North Shore early Sunday as the frigid air filters in.  By the time it gets cold enough across the South Shore, all the moisture will be gone.  I like the FOX 8 graphics.

IF you have to travel north over the next several days, leave tomorrow.  By Friday, a band of heavy snow & freezing rain will shut down all interstates north of Shreveport to Jackson line. Here's the Euro model guidance with freezing rain on top, followed by heavy snow.

The model is forecasting a band of 1-2 feet of snow from Oklahoma City, north of Little Rock & Memphis, to Washington, D.C.  But it's the band of freezing rain that will be worse, knocking out power for thousands.

For all you snow geeks, I think we stay too warm for any frozen precipitation.  Could that change?  Sure, the cold air could dig farther southward, but will the moisture linger?  Right now, I don't think so except for a brief time across the North Shore. Here's the NWS forecast graphic

You can see what they're saying...DON'T DRIVE NORTH on Saturday or Sunday.  So then the next question is...how cold will we get?

Based on what I'm seeing, the Polar Vortex never digs down to the Gulf Coast, telling me the core of the Arctic Blast will be to our north & east.  It doesn't mean we won't freeze, but I don't see pipe-busting temps. except north of I-12 and east into MS/AL/FL.  Also, we still don't have a snow cover near us, but that will change.

 

The key cities to watch over the next several days will be Denver (51), Dallas (66), and San Antonio (71).  IF the Arctic air moves over these cities, then I'll be more concerned about a hard freeze.  This is an evolving situation, and I always preach UNCERTAINTY.  The bottom line is we pay attention when cold air comes, just as we do with tropical systems in the summer.

The FOX 8 7-day certainly is bullish regarding a hard freeze for Monday & Tuesday.  IF that proves to be reality, you still have time to protect your plants & property. 

There are many ways to cover your outside faucets.  Get that done if you haven't already.  As we get closer to the event, we'll decide if we need to drip the water.  For now, pay attention & don't travel north!  Stay tuned!