Typhoon Jangmi Threatens Japan, Late Week Gulf Moisture, 2026 Season Begins

 We all know the 2026 Hurricane season begins at midnight and the next 4-5 months we'll be on the Tropical Watch each day. Right now all the action is out in the western Pacific (WPAC) with only one Typhoon (Jangmi 85 mph) heading on a track just south of Japan.  That should lessen the impacts as most of Japan will be on the weaker side of Jangmi.

NHC is indicating the eastern Pacific (EPAC) is about to get active in the next 3-5 days with a 90% chance (red) for development.

Current satellite view are not impressive, but computer models do develop a storm by late week.  In our part of the World we have no issues, but a couple of interesting features to watch. The most interesting is a cold front that has stalled over the Southeast, but will get closer by Tuesday as a secondary surge of cold air comes out of Canada.

There are several features in the Gulf and Caribbean that catch my eye.  The first is a strong tropical wave moving over the Western Caribbean with the second being the lingering tropical moisture over the east half of the Gulf.

No model develops anything this week, but IF we are to see any early season development, it often is with a frontal boundary that sags down into the Gulf.  The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps the core of the heavy rains down over the Gulf for the next 5-7 days.

The GFS valid for Friday morning does bring some of that moisture inland over south Louisiana, but it also hints of a weak low south of Lafayette.  The MJO is in the favorable phase (rising motion) so it's something to follow this week.

You can clearly see where the frontal boundary is located.  40s & 50s dew points (good feel air) covers the Ohio Valley into the Northeast while most of the South suffers with dew points 70+.  Again today we had a few heavy showers develop.  

I had a great view from high up in Copeland Tower looking back towards downtown.  That shower spread westward over most of East Bank Jefferson.

Like most summer storms, one block is in sunshine while 2-3 blocks away 1-2" of rain falls in less than an hour.  I don't see any major changes until later this week when rain chances could increase depending on that moisture plume down over the Gulf.

My next podcast will focus on our chances for early season hurricane development.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Don't forget the FOX 8 Hurricane Special "Weathering the Storm" airs Monday night at 6:30 PM.  Stay tuned!

One Typhoon, Hostile Gulf,Caribbean, Atlantic, Drier weekend

Before I deal with today's post, let me say thank you to all who commented about yesterday's blog.  Several correctly spotted my intentions for using an outrageous hurricane graphic (click-ons) as my followers were way higher than normal.  What disappointed me was the number of comments by people who obviously never read my discussion and just made comments about the picture.  C'mon Gang, read my whole post BEFORE you comment.  We have just one more day before the start of the 2026 hurricane season and worldwide, we have just one Typhoon (Jangmi) going on and that's in the western Pacific.

The current forecast track has it impacting Japan, with the stronger side of this storm staying offshore.  NHC does highlight an area east of Hawaii for potential development, but that is based mainly on computer models.  Satellite views don't show much.

The EPAC season started May 15th, and they have yet to see their first named storm.  As for the Atlantic Basin, the conditions remain very hostile, and there should be nothing happening for the next 7-10+ days. The Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High is centered way out near the Azores, with cold fronts depressing the western nose far south.

The Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is streaming off of Africa, with some dust reaching into the southeastern Gulf.  In addition, the Water Vapor view has nothing but upper lows, strong westerly wind shear, and lots of dry air.

But then again, in this El Nino summer, Tropical Development is supposed to be limited.  Let's hope that continues.   My podcast next week will focus on those limiting factors, but you need to sign up at bobbreck.com to hear and see it.  The beauty of my podcast is that it is ad-free and you can listen to it while driving in your car.  The better part is being able to watch and see me draw on the graphics on your home tablet or PC.  Current subscribers will get a renewal notice as we have made it as hassle-free as possible.  For the cost of one Powerball ticket ($2/month), you can become part of Breckster's Backers.  Give it a try.

Currently, the disturbed area over the southern and eastern Gulf is almost gone, and WPC's 7-day rain totals no longer bring a heavy rain threat back into Louisiana for next week, keeping most of it well over the southern Gulf.  Some welcomed rains are streaming into Drought-stricken Florida.

It's not widespread or nearly enough, but they will take whatever they can get.    A strong cold front has pushed off the East Coast, bringing out the sweaters and jackets.

Can you believe Boston is in the 40s and it's almost June?   Burrr!

We know the drill here.  Highs will be 90+ for the next 3 1/2 months with dew points in the 70s.  There is a surge of muggy air all the way up into Minnesota, while the good feel air has dipped into Kentucky and the Carolinas.  Locally, we actually saw a sea breeze front around Lake Pontchartrain today.

A few brief showers developed, and that should be the case for the next couple of days.  NWS increases rain chances later next week, but I don't see any reason for that happening.  

Remember, basic summertime here means 30-50% daily rain chances.  Perhaps that weak front coming down the East coast could get close enough to increase our chances, but that would just make us less hot.  We certainly don't need (especially southern Mississippi) any more rain for several days.  Enjoy your Sunday.  Stay tuned!