"Generational Rain Event", Widespread Tornado Outbreak Expected

Yesterday I showed you a graphic from WPC's data indicating a multiple-day rain event that could deposit FEET of rainfall for states to our north.  I saw on the web where someone has labeled it a "Generational Rain Event"?!!!  I had to look up what "generational" meant timewise.   Seems each generation spans 15-25 years, which is not even a sentence in the book of Planet Earth's history.  Whatever, here's the graphic that caused the new terminology.

I guess "historical" or "unprecedented" would be too extreme.  But the bottom line is, many locations over several states will get flooding rains the rest of this week as a stalled frontal boundary will create a "training event".  The deep upper trough is stalled over the Rockies as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast.

As the graphics indicate, the ridge holds firm through Friday blocking the surface boundary. Over the weekend, the Rockies trough starts to drift eastward, bringing us some showers late Saturday into Sunday.  By next Tuesday, the upper trough will be over the Eastern States, bringing us relief from the humidity & cooler temperatures.  But for the next 3 days, look up north as SPC indicates in their Severe Weather Outlooks.  Today even has a level 5 severe risk.

Their forecast threat weakens over time, but it doesn't shift much.  Tornado watches stretch from Illinois down to Louisiana & Texas.

It's a perfect severe weather set up.  The upper energy and surface low are in Iowa with a strong flow of tropical moisture surging out of the Gulf.  Upper winds veer from the SE at the surface to WSW higher up.

Anytime you see huge temperature contrasts on the surface map, you know there will be some wild/severe weather areas.  For the next 2-3 days, that nasty stuff will stay to our north until Saturday night.

Near-record warmth will remain along with strong SSE winds creating high tides.

As the stalled front gets moving on Saturday, it could bring us some strong storms (First Alert Sunday), but nothing like the levels 3-5 up north.  I'll be going to see my Birthday boy Grandson (Ethan) so I might not post for several days.  Stay tuned!

Flowers Everywhere, Tornado/Heavy Rain Event Wed-Saturday Up North

There is something about Spring that I love more than any season.  I think it's the brilliant colors that pop out after you cut back your plants after the Winter freezes.  Those colors will be there over the next several months, but it's like an artist adding color to a dead landscape.  I love it!   Except what it does to my sinuses ! 

What drives the new growth are rising temperatures and longer daylight. We're not done with cold fronts, but the rest of this week will flirt with record warmth.

The reason for this early warmth is a stalled upper low over the Rockies and a building upper ridge across the Southeast.  It also set up a large area for severe weather and extremely heavy rainfall. Some locations could see 1-2 FEET !  of rain over the next 4-7 days.

 Look for waves of low pressure moving along a stalled frontal boundary that will finally reach us on Sunday.  SPC has really ramped up the severe weather threat to our north.  We begin with today on  top.

SPC increases today's level 3 to a level 4 on Wednesday before lowering it for Thursday.  As you can see, the risk area doesn't change much  for the next 3 days.  Lows keep rotating out of the deep upper West Coast trough

Not only will our highs be in the 80s this week, dew points are already summer-like (70+).  The strong SSE winds for the next several days will cause some coastal flooding outside the levee protection system.  

Those of you who don't like the early heat, relax.  The next cold front will have quite a chill behind it.  In fact, you'll need sweaters again for early next week.  Summer is not here...yet !  Stay tuned!