NHC Increases Chances, Invest 92-L Likely to Become Isaias In Gulf Late Week, Hello Orange Beach

Sure, let's go to Orange Beach for my Birthday week getaway.  It's been a quiet hurricane season. What could go wrong? Well, I'm here and the views are magnificent.  The weather not the best, but I'm at the beach!

So what could go wrong?  As you know, NHC has increased chances for development in the SW Gulf to 80%. Translation...it's gonna happen.  They have already called it INVEST 92-L so model tracks can be run.

Right now, all we have is a frontal boundary draped along the northern Gulf with a mass of disorganized T-Storms over the western Gulf.  Early model runs are scattered all over the place.

These early runs should not scare you since they hack an initialization point.  In other words, NHC is guessing at where a center might be.  A Recon aircraft is scheduled out for tomorrow if necessary.  My guess is this will be a slow developer and a plane won't go out until Wednesday.  Here are the Euro & GFS AI models with the Euro on top.

The time is valid for Saturday morning so the models are in good agreement.  IF these early tracks are correct, we would be on the weaker/dry side of the storm with mainly coastal impacts.  Do I believe a named storm will form?

Just based at how the wind shear over the Gulf has decreased, yes, I think we'll be dealing with a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane later this week with landfall sometime on Saturday.  I will post again in the morning and will do a in depth podcast Tuesday PM IF necessary.  You have to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber to know "What does Bob think".  Otherwise, surf the internet, check the NHC website and watch FOX 8.  Stay tuned!

NHC Increases Chances, Isaias Coming To Southern Gulf Late Week

 For days FOX Weather has been all over some kind of development in the Bay of Campeche later this week.  Yesterday, NHC joined the party and started highlighting an area over the southern Gulf giving it a 20% chance to develop.  Overnight and this morning, NHC has increased those chances from 40% to now 70% telling me they are buying in to many of the model solutions.  It should come as no surprise as the southern Gulf, historically, has been where late season storms (Opal) form.

Before we get totally running for the Xanax and/or bourbon, let's take a deep breath and understand EVERYTHING is against a major hurricane making landfall along the Louisiana coast.  There have been a few exceptions (Zeta) and that's why we will pay attention.  I will probably start doing daily podcasts on Tuesday IF anything starts to develop.  To see and hear those podcast, you must become a subscriber.

Go to bobbreck.com and sign up.  The cost is one PowerBall ticket ($2/month) and I promise you find my discussion & ideas will help ease your anxiety.  Here are some graphics from FOX Weather this morning. They highlight the area for development and then project a possible path towards the Florida beaches for next weekend.

 

The upper low that created wind shear has moved into Mexico leaving behind an upper high of lighter winds.

But before you freak out, remember we're into October and the westerlies start to sag farther to the south bringing cold fronts.

That wall of stronger westerly winds will sag farther south and IF ANYTHING FORMS, those winds should turn the disturbance to the east before it reaches Louisiana. My friend Bryan Norcross showed that scenario this morning.

Those west winds will make for a very lopsided system with most of the rain on the east side of the storm.  In fact, IF the storm stays to our south and east, we could end up on the dry side with a wonderful weekend.  I caution those living east of Mobile Bay to pay closer attention.  Again, I'll start a daily podcast later this week so go sign up.  I'm on the road this afternoon so I may not post until tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned!