Strong Sunday Night Front, Another Severe Threat, Heavy Coats Required Monday

 It's hard to believe that we'll have to go back to Sweaters & heavy coats again after being in the 70s & 80s.  However, previous posts have mentioned we are not done with Winter and will see many more cold fronts well into April.  This next front will be a slap in da face on Monday morning as strong north winds will have windchills here down into the 30s.  Why will that happen?  Let's begin with the current picture.

Sunday will be warm here as the cold air is far to our north.  However, look at how the upper pattern flips from now until Monday.

We basically have a west to east flow across the lower 48 as an disturbance deepens over Idaho.  Look at how the upper trough reforms over the eastern states.  On top is the current followed by late Sunday PM.

The bottom is for Monday morning with a full blown upper East coast trough.  That will bring down the super cold (20-30+) below zero air out of Canada.

With such strong upper energy/dynamics clashing with a huge temperature contrast and rich low level moisture, strong to severe storms are almost guaranteed to develop.  SPC has issued a level three severe risk for Sunday to our north including a level 2 risk here.

 

That risk quickly shifts to the East coast on Monday.  This event for us should be mainly a straight line wind damage event coming well after dark on Sunday ending before daybreak on Monday.

The coldest mornings will be Tuesday & Wednesday with a light freeze possible on the North Shore and some frost away from Lake P. south.  You should consider protecting your tropical plants and tender vegetation before we warm right back up later next week.  Before then, we need to pay attention to the possible severe threat for after dark on Sunday night.  Make sure you have your phone nearby your bed so you can receive any warnings though your FOX 8 Weather App.  Many will be focused on the parades this weekend which should have no weather problems.  St. Patrick's Day will be sunny but cold, a beautiful day IF you're dressed for it. Stay tuned!

North Shore Hammered Over Night, South Shore Just Drenched

After stressing the higher severe risk with last night's cold front, unfortunately, the North Shore did see mainly widespread tree damage.  Both sides of the Lake received a welcome 1-2" of rain, but the wind damage appears confined to the North Shore.

 

The graphic on the SPC's site indicates only one report of a tornado, but many wind damage reports.

One thing that jumps out is zero storm reports south of Lake P.  We will enjoy several dry days before our next, stronger cold front arrives Sunday night.  Will it bring more severe weather?  Look at the difference between the upper air last night and the forecast for Monday PM.

Note how next Monday's dip is sharper & deeper.  We'll have to watch this as we get closer, as it's too far out to start getting you worried.  That dip will bring colder temps down to us.  Look at what's up over Canada.

It's still 20-30 below zero up there.  I don't think we'll have to worry about any freezes, but it will get quite chilly for Monday & Tuesday.  In the short term, all is quiet.

One thing this front has done is cleared away the pollen for a day.  Dew points 65-70 yesterday as in the 30s & 40s today.  It's good feel air IF you're dressed for it.

The warm-up will be quick this weekend, but look at next week's cool-down.  As I keep repeating, we are not done with sweaters and jackets.  Stay tuned!