Flash Drought, Useless 7 Day, No August Storms In Gulf

I was watching Bruce Katz last night, and he used the term "Flash drought".  Since I've been retired for over a decade, it seems more and more terms are invented to describe the weather.  What are "Dry Skies?" or how about "Super Storm"?  I had to Google what a " flash drought " is.  Basically, it's a dry period with very high temperatures that create high evaporation rates, quickly drying out the ground.  Zack had this graphic on FOX 8 this morning that tells the story.

We were very wet late Spring into early Summer, but then have gone very dry during the hottest time of the year.  It's not critical yet, but we need to return to daily storms before this Thursday's Drought Monitor places us back into drought conditions. 

Let's see if the Thursday update changes us from abnormally dry (yellow) into the orange (moderate drought).  A couple of daily storms could quickly change that, but no major changes are in store this week.  The good news is it appears we will get through August without a Hurricane Threat in the northern Gulf.

This graphic shows history is on our side during an El Niño summer as only 3 storms threatened Louisiana.  My next podcast, out tomorrow, will cover the history of past Hurricane Seasons and looks for tendencies that might tell us about the rest of this summer.  To watch it, you have to go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

At the moment, there is nothing across the Atlantic Basin to indicate Dolly (next named storm) is coming this week.

Water Vapor continues to show all the dry air plus the upper lows creating wind shear over the entire basin.  Until that changes, things should stay Quiet.

But hold on, Hurricane Breath... what about the GFS?

That is the only model that develops a named storm during the next 10-14 days.  The top view is valid August 29th (Katrina, Ida anniversaries), with the bottom valid Aug. 31st.  IF Dolly were to form, it most likely will do the recurve to the north, away from the U.S.  Worldwide, Lala remains the only named storm, and it has made a comeback.

After battering the Hawaiian Islands and weakening to a Tropical Storm, Lala has strengthened back to a Cat. 2 Hurricane, moving northward away from any land areas.

Will the storms on the North Shore make their way south?  Some folks are getting cooling relief.

Just remember to use common sense when working or playing outdoors.  Tomorrow's podcast is about past history of our Hurricanes.  Go become a subscriber to learn more about our past.  Stay tuned!

More August Heat, Tropics Remain Quiet, New Podcast Past History

Gosh, I hate talking about what we get every year at this time.  Growing up, you remember it as "the dog days of August".  Now the general media calls it "extreme, dangerous, or deadly Heat".  Whatever, I won't bore you with what every station is highlighting along with the local National Weather Service Office.

There have been some spotty storms bubbling up during daytime heating, but not everyone saw relief.

The middle radar view was from 2:30 pm, but within an hour it was gone.  Until the upper heat dome shifts farther to our west, look for little daily changes the rest of this week.

But this is mainly a hurricane blog post, and the tropics over the Atlantic remain dead.

The water vapor view clearly shows why.  Upper-level lows are creating wind shear along with strong wind shear.  Add in the Saharan dust, and you can see why it will stay quiet for another week at least.

But even the Tropical Pacific is quiet, with only Lala being a named storm.  My next podcast on Wednesday will focus on the history of our hurricanes.  Why do some years have clusters of storms while other years have nothing in the Gulf?  To watch and hear the podcast, you have to become a subscriber at bobbreck.com.  I thank the hundreds who have already renewed for year 2, with only 2 people choosing to cancel.  The price is right ($2/month), and the information enhances my daily free FB blog.  Come join the crowd to see what you've been missing.  Stay tuned!