Road Trip, Heat Main Issue, Tropics Gone Dead

I left NOLA this AM on a road trip to see the Biltmore Resort in Asheville, North Carolina.  We have stopped in Birmingham to meet up with my old college roommate, Tom Clark & his wide Gail.  it breaks up the 11 hour drive into 2 days.  Birmingham is a beautiful city where you begin to see some topography.  The place we're staying even has a Ruth's Chris' Steak house so I feel right at home.

The drive over was no problem with only a few brief showers on the way.  Our weather back home has finally taken a turn for the better as our daily shower chances have decreased.  That also means the heat becomes somewhat of an issue, but get use to it as the next three months will have daily heat indexes between 105-115 degrees.

Of course all TV station will be warning us about the heat as if it doesn't happen each summer.  The tropicasl plume of moisture coming in off the Gulf is gone giving us several days to dry out.

Fronts stop coming and you can see the extreme heat beginning to build over the Southwest.  Just use common sense if working or playing outdoors until October.  This is a hurricane blog, but the Tropics have gone dead.

The Saharan dust layer will keep the MDR quiet well into July, which is typical for the first part of the season. The Water Vapor view shows why nothing can form as dry air and upper lows create a hostile environment.

I don't expect us to track anything in the Atlantic Basin well into July.  Even the rest of the World is fair quiet with the exception of the western Pacific.

There is a powerful Cat. 4 Typhoon (Mekkhala) that should just miss the Phillipines along with a new Depression.  But that's it.  So since we have nothing to track, this week's podcast will be from the Biltmore Resort showing the beauty of North Carolina.  To watch it you have to become a subscriber, as nearly 150 of you did last week with T.S.Arthur.

Go to bobbreck.com to sign up before the next tropical threat comes.  Stay tuned!

Arthur Is Gone, Boundary left Behind, Heat Becomes An Issue

 NHC has given up on Arthur's remains becoming organized off the Carolinas reducing redevelopment chances to near zero.  However, this system has left behind a boundary from Texas to the Georgia where more heavy tropical downpours are falling.  Fortunately, the boundary is farther to the north and not over the rain drenched Guld coastal locations.

I think it's a stretch to call it a cold frontal boundary as it's hard to find cooler air behind it.

 

There are lower dew points (drier air) well north of the "front", but look at those high dewpoints (75+) over the south.  Geez, Jackson is reporting their dew point at 81 !!!  No wonder the T-Storms are so heavy with all that moisture/fuel to work with.

We are seeing far fewer storms around today since the boundary moved northward.

What I don't want to see for Saturday is the boundary to sag back down farther to the south over areas where most rivers are in Flood.

That's the thinking of FOX 8 as they increased rain chances for Saturday before we dry out heading into next week.  Finally, the MJO (Madden/Julian Oscillation) is going into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase over us.  That should mean the Atlantic Basin will be quiet the rest of June. We already know the MDR is dead because of the Saharan Dust.

Now that Arthur is gone, the Gulf and Caribbean are clear.  But what is really stunning is the lack of Tropical Activity Worldwide.  The EPAC is dead.

Even in the most active basin (Western Pacific), there is only one weak Tropical Storm (Mekkhaka).  Since Arthur  created a week of anxiety with one high anxiety morning (Thursday), we all need time to decompress.  Let's use this weekend to relax and "enjoy" our typical summer heat that will only get worse as we head towards August.  Everyone playing/working outdoors needs to use common sense.  Hats, sunscreen & stay hydrated Gang. Stay tuned!