In looking at the daily almanac data, I'm encouraged to see our record lows are now in the 50s & soon to be in the 40s by the end of this month. Summer officially ends Sunday at 4:51 AM and the sooner we start cooling down the Gulf's waters the better. This last cool spell brought down Lake Pontchartrain's temperature from 85 last week down to 79 today. It will take many more fronts to bring down the Gulf's 85+ degree warmth.
Computer models continue to hint at some kind of Gulf distrubance forming late this week. I think it's likely to be more of a tropical wave/upper feature that will bring us some gusty winds and several rainy spells late this week, but right now it's unlikely to develop like Humberto did. Remember, Humberto had a well defined SURFACE circulation for 2 days before it exploded as an upper high moved over it. I'll be watching for any kind of surface low to form as this upper feature moves from Florida towards the upper Texas coast. We still have about 2-3 weeks to really sweat out before we get deeper into October and the Westerly winds take over the northern Gulf. Don't be frightened by all the bloggers predicting a Gulf storm once again. They predict EVERY system develops into a major storm...let's just stay our usual calm.
Bob
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