Satellite loops clearly show an organizing hurricane moving over the Cayman Islands tonight. NHC now is predicting a Cat. 4 over the southern Gulf on Sunday as the storm is forecasted to move over the Gulf loop current. All that is rather negative so what positives do I have for you? 1) NHC readily admits they have not been good on intensity forecasts. Usually they miss the rapid intensification cycles. Let's hope they're wrong this time, except the other way as maybe the storm won't get as strong as predicted. 2) The shift of the model tracks farther to the west continues, but as I mentioned earlier, the shift is agonizing slow. 3) The upper low over the Gulf appears to be hanging on. Not sure what that means.
Saturday & most of Sunday will be wonderful weather days here. It's a time to get your house & yard ready. It still looks like early Sunday will be decision time on whether you choose to stay or leave. As I mentioned earlier, don't leave to the west...head to the north or east. If you stay, the brunt of the storm will be from lower Plaquemines westward to LaFourche & Terrebonne. Those folks gotta evacuate. Since the storm is yet to reach the Gulf, I'm not going to try to predict what kind of wind, surge, rainfall variuos locations will receive. That'll come later tomorrow. Sleep well tonight. IF Gustav doesn't shift farther west, stress levels increase tomorrow night. Next update before noon Saturday.
16 comments:
Bob,
I have faith that this storm will move farther west and prevent a major impact to the local viewing area. Keeping my fingers crossed with you!!
While I don't wish harm on my fellow citizens of Louisiana, I personally am not in a position to go through another major storm.
I had a panic attack in Winn-Dixie today seeing the long lines and the look of panic on people's faces as they fight for the last can of tuna on the shelf.
Oh, BTW...Winn Dixie decides to have a major sell on meat this week. What timing!!!!!!
Thanks for your humor, Bob!!! You are a joy to listen to...even if it is bad news at times!!!!
Thanks again for being here for us, Bob.
I'm also optimistic that Gustav is going to shift further west..I just keep thinking of Ivan not so long ago. I'm not panicking, and thats in big part to you and your forcasts!
So say it hits the (hopefully!) Port Arthur area...what do you think we'll be seeing in in the city?
I know you probably won't speculate on this until such a scenario becomes a real possibility, but I'm just getting my question in now!
Also, what Cat. do you think it will be when it hits?
Bob I live in Madisonville about 1 mile south of I12. I am concerned about storm surge. Can you possibly give us a few scenarios on what type of surge we can expect here? I can't listen to anyone else about this storm. You have become the Authoruty on our weather. We need our Bob!!
Thanks greatly!!
Here in Mississippi we're worried about how far west Gustav goes. If it goes a little further west we won't have to worry about it very much at all. If it goes in around Houma we will get trees and power lines down.
Faith and optimism won't keep your children safe. Any person with children should realize that shelters and hotel rooms should be a last choice for anyone with other options.
If your child has another family in a safer place--send them or bring them.
Evacuation to Baton Rouge is ridiculous. My fingers are crossed, too. But remaining near the uncertainty is foolish.
Look through the eyes of a child. It may not be time to panic, but a child's safety should not be left to faith and optimism. Nor should it be left to the final moments when uncertainty turns to panic.
If your child has a safe haven far from the storm, put your pride and stubborness aside. Now is not the time to quibble over whose weekend it is.
Bob,
Trying to learn by observing what you have been showing. I beleive this link shows the dry air associated with the front that you have mentioned that is diving into the gulf. It looks like is is diving deep into the gulf as if it is on a mission, if it doesn't start retracting north or moving to the east, wouldn't Gustav have to react by following the right hand boundry into FL or making a hard left toward TX?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Thanks Bob - we appreciate you and the work you do!
On the current projected path with the intensity forecast from 4am, thos of us in MS (well where I am in Delisle) would get tropical storm force winds with gusts to 50ish. However, seeing now that it has become a Cat 3 since the 4am advisory, I suspect the intensity forecast is out the window. My information is simply from a program called HURRTRAK RM PRO that ingests the model and NHC forecast data. It plots the forecast with the expected wind field then tells you, based on your latitude and longitude, the approximate time of onset of TS force, the average expected, the max expected, and the expected end time. It's not a model but a great tool for ingesting all the data and looking at it graphically. My husband is a meteorologist and currently he is feeling alot better about this storm. However, we have prepared to stay or go depending on the effects we can expect to receive. If the slightest slip of the track uts us in harms way, we will be outta here. As Bob says, everyone should be watching and be prepared. Have a plan. And remember what is important.. Family, Friends, Community .. Stuff can be replaced, don't risk yourself to save your stuff. Had we stayed in Katrina, we would not only have lost our stuff, but our lives as well.
Bob-
Thank you for your thorough coverage. I, and several others I've talked to, want to also thank you for having the courage to frankly state that you don't know what will happen. Several other local broadcasts have maintained a more hysterical stance, albeit subtlely, by emphasizing the fear of uncertainty. You, on the other hand, have been our voice of reason, delivering accurate, reasonable and thoughtful information. In addition, the inclusion of your opinions shouldn't be criticized, but praised. We all appreciate your honest expressions and love hearing your gut feelings, as we appreciate your experience and accompanying instincts. This is the same information I relied on during Katrina and the same information I rely on now. Thanks again!
Best,
Nora
Hi Bob,
I know everyone is asking you similar questions, but i need to ask: with the current NHC projections, what do you think the impact on the east bank of Jefferson parish could be? I keep hearing everyone talking about the West Bank and coastal communities, but I am curious about the Metairie/Kenner areas also.
Thanks!
Bob,
I agree with what other posters are saying - you are the ONLY weather man I can stand to listen to, or trust!
You convinced me to leave for Katrina, and thank goodness as I lived and still live in Lakeview in a 1 story house, and I am trusting you to give me the best information again for Gustav!
I would like to just get out of here now to be out of harms way. However, I have 5 pets and am responsible for an out of town relative's 2 animals, as well. This makes me want to stay as long as it is an option. We are planning on making our final decision by Sunday and leaving late at night Sunday night to avoid traffic. Hopefully, contraflow will not yet be in affect at that time.
What do you think? Is staying in the Lakeview or possibly the Metairie area even a safe option to consider for Gustav??
Is it okay to go evacuate to the Shreveport area? As, I see that the whole state pretty much is under the cone where the storm could track.
Bob, could you please tell those people who are thinking about evacuating what states or even areas would be the saftest place to go. As, I really don't know if going to the upper Shreveport area would be the best area to go.
Bob...appears to be moving just east of the forecast points. Hoping that westward turn starts SOON!
Recon just picked up 146 mph max surface winds....and 141 mph winds in the SE Quadrant!
I'm glad that he will go over some cooler water and catch some shear before he gets to the LA coast.
Sheesh....
Bob, dropsonde just picked up 945 mb pressure at the surface dropped in the eye....
He's a gettin mean!
He's officially a cat 4 (Forecaster Knabb at NHC) but dropsonde currently coming out of the eye from Hurricane Hunters is indicating a Cat 5 with winds up to 160 MPH....
Hoping that everyone is making FINAL plans in the NO/Gulf Coast Area!
TURN TO THE WEST VERY LIKELY....close to shore!
Bob...PLEASE GET VIPIR TO BE RIGHT! :)
Bob,
Can you please tell me more about the Ponchatoula/Hammond area? Thank you!
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