Sorry I'm a little late getting this out, but I had to read thru some 70+ comments. Thanks to most of you for some great advice. The teacher one was terrific...have your student's cell number. Great idea. Keep them coming. Would I cancel trip to Cancun...probably...but I'd wait until Thursday PM to make sure since Gustav is forecasted to stay far north of Cancun.
As I stated on my last blog, I thought I saw a shift towards the SW & now the Weather Channel along with NHC is saying the same...except NHC does not change their forecast track keep Gustav north of Jamaica over open water. As I mentioned earlier, Gustav is predicted to come straight at us, but that is FIVE days from now and the track error at 5 days is 300+ miles on avg. Which means, I am not going to get really nervous until Saturday when/IF Gustav finally gets into the Gulf. There are so many scenarios that could happen that will mean little or no effect to us from Gustav, but I am not going to try to speculate on landfall until Gustav gets into the Gulf. We need more time to see how the track develops and so far it hasn't exactly followed any of the models. I'll update Thursday around mid day. Thanks for all your comments. Yes we are realy to begin hourly updates, but that won't happen before Saturday or until Gustav gets into the Gulf.
25 comments:
Thanks, Bob, for being so level-headed. The last thing we need is another forcaster waving his arms and saying the sky is falling.
P.S. This hurricane is a total slut, but do you think staying for a Cat. 2 would be a really bad idea?
thank you bob!! Yikes I'll be glad, as I know we all will be, to know what this thing us going to do!!!!
Have I mentioned that you rock? You're the new Nash!
Thanks bob,Your there when we need you the most.P.S im your # 1 fan :)
Bob,
Looked at a very interesting water vapor loop that shows the TD to the NE of Gustav sucking the moisture out of Gustav. It looked as if the circulation that developed on the southern and eastern side of Gustav was being ripped away as it approached Gustav's northern side. Has this had more to do with the weakening of Gustav than yesterday's time over land and how long can a feature like this be capable of inhibiting Gustav's strengthening?
Just wanted to let you know that your blog is what I read faithfully! Although I am totally prepared (even have my renter's insurance paid up and my evacuation supplies sitting downstairs near the front door), I am not letting it stress me too much. Oh, and I got stuck watching another network tonight-- not the same as watching you- you explain why things are happening, whereas the other stations just explain what is happening and we are left to wonder why. You are, by far, the best in all of Louisiana!
Bob,
I'm in Indianapolis working and reading your blog is as close to home reporting as I can get. Most people here can't understand why I'm watching a storm that is so far away. Completely oblivous.
I'm scheduled to travel back home Tue morning and fly back out Wed morning. (Big if,huh?)
My husband said yesterday 'where's Nash with his black marker'? I think we've found him....
It's getting scary. Should I cancel my lunch at Applebees?
Latest VIPIR model run has Gustav splitt'n into 3 hurricanes hitting Florida, Texas and then Louisiana.
I'm sure the NHC was seeing that SW turn long before anyone else, they just don't go blog'n about it. So far the models have been doing very well with Gustav...
Yeah Caveman, The NHC hasn't gotten this storm right one day out. What concerns me is that they don't show it coming here anymore. I'm sure they are "seeing" it move SW but they were saying (and still are) it's moving to the west. I think it shows that these models are not perfect. Now if Bob had echoed the NHC statements, you'd be on here proclaiming his inability to forecast. So now you reach for some idiotic remarks about VIPIR. Get a life dude.
Latest satellite imagery appears to be showing that westerly movement...Will be interesting to see how the track changes if at all.
Models much more in agreement today eh? Still, so much (as we saw yesterday) can change.
Hey Bob, I tried to get a couple of links for supply checklists together...can you try to get one up on your site?
Also, folks, make sure that you have phone numbers and KNOW the evacuation plans of those around you...too many lost during Katrina!
Thanks for your hard work Bob...
Latest RECON data shows that mak winds are around 77 mph...will be interesting to see if he is upgraded to a minimal hurricane at the next update....and appears to be heading for Jamaica to me!
Will Gustav behave and do what we're telling it? LOL
Yeppers, latest models are reflecting the westward movement that I'm seeing...
The ridge of high pressure over Florida is not as strong as first thought...
The mystery is where it's going to go once in the GOM...I'm still saying more east, but obviously, this storm doesn't care what I say...lol
No matter where it goes, PLEASE get prepared! I'm gonna be busy for the next 24 hours....so, ya'll behave! :)
Hey...(yeah, I'm long winded...) The models, are only as good as the data given to them as they are initialized. The upper level guidance has changed so much, that the models keep changing...That's why, no one can tell you exactly where this is going, because until steering currents further stabilize, nothing is for sure, and the storm disagrees with everything!
Bob's doing a great job...I said this yesterday, as I think that Nash Roberts is the man...but let's remember, that Nash had the tough job of takin em in when they were just off the coast....If he was trying to predict 5 days out, I don't think Nash would have looked so good...Bob has a tough job...and if the NHC has so much uncertainty (and headache, lol) with this storm, how can you expect psychic Bob to get the jump on them?
BOB, YOU ROCK! Ok...now I really have LOTS of work to do...ya'll have a great day!
Uh, wobbling? Or Bob, is he moving NNW now?
NHC has to be screaming about now...lol
Geeze, my handheld is killing me....typo, typo....
WNW I meant to type...Looks like it to me!
Bob...any thoughts on the Bay of Campeche? Doesn't look like any good low level circulation, but uppers, wow! Feels suddenly like the 2005 hurricane season, lol
Well if we use Bob's reasoning that we are better if we are in the center of the cone of error because they never follow a straight line and we should be safe then using that same reason we are screwed because we are no longer in the center of the cone of error!
VIPIR run showing Santa Clause on his way to Florida Keys!
Caveman, you might get bit by this even in the Florida Keys, lol!
Can you believe this thing?! This is why nobody can say where it will go. Bob is doing his job by trying to keep everyone calm till the time arrives to worry more. Just as you quoted, there is a lot of uncertainty on where this this will go and what the strength will be when it gets there.
To show how much everyone is begining to panic, I have heard that there is the possibility of the Jefferson Parish Schools closing tomorrow. What is your input on this Bob?
Is it my imagination, or is Gustav now headed straight for Jamaica now? So, could the track go back to the east a bit?
looks like it's going to go right on top of Jamaica maaan... to me-with the untrained eye that is glued to every letter typed and every map and model shown!
The new update will be out soon. I cant wait to see where the center is now. It looks to be north of the last one.
I agree that we should prepare but not panic. It's just too early to know where Gustav may decide to go. My only hope is that if Gustav does come in our direction that the evacuation process will go smoothly. I live in Terrebonne Parish. We wanted to evacuate when Rita was heading toward us but we decided not to because traffic was at a stand-still. I just hope that everyone will be considerate and follow the plans that the government has set up so that everyone can get to safety.
Thanks Bob!!!
It looks like NHC has shifted the forecast track just a hair back to the east...right?
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