Satellite loops of Gustav tonight indicate he is getting better organized as he approaches the western part of Haiti. NHC says Gustav will be a hurricane before daybreak. Several of the models keep this storm south of Cuba & over water for the next 5 days allowing it to strengthen into a major Hurricane by late Saturday. At that time Gustav still will not be in the SE Gulf. What we want to happen over the next several days is for Gustav to take a more turn to the left that would bring him into the Yucatan on Sunday. This is not the time for bloggers to speculate on where this fella will go. Remember, when Katrina was east of FLA, the models predicted her to go up the east coast. Later runs brought her into the Gulf but still well to our east. Bottom line. Before we start to put our faith into any model, we need to see if reality fits the models.
IF...and I stress IF Gustav does come our way, it would not get close until late Monday of NEXT WEEK !!! We have plenty of time for this storm to change course. Just continue to pay attention since it could become a dangerous hurricane as it heads south of Cuba.
20 comments:
Is it possible for it to strengthen if it enters the gulf right now?
I have seen a lot of comments in different places about a weakness left in the central gulf coast region by the remnant of Fay but also some forecasts of a ridge supposedly currently in place or building over Florida to be either eroding or shifting east by Friday. Of course, not to wish something bad on someone else but if there has to be a gulf coast landfall may it be on a relatively less populated area (far corner northeastern gulf) and/or on an area which is not still in a very tenuous and fragile state of rebuild or near somewhere where tons of oil rigs would be damaged, either. Nevertheless, most of all, may ridging build in the west (I have seen this discussed, also) such that a storm tracking near the Yucatan channel would be unable to gain latitude or strength from being over open seas.
correction: I meant ridging to be building in *from* the west as I believe is also forecasted.
Gulf is warmer than where it is now!
Thanks Bob for all you do for us. My wife and I watch you every day and you haven't let us down yet. You have gained our confidence and that is especially hard to do when it comes to weather. Who is this caveman character anyway? If he is so good at predicting weather why isnt he doing it on TV? He just sounds like a very lonely guy trying to gain purpose in his own life by being a jerk on here because its all he has. It makes him feel important when in reality he is a wannabe. Anyway my question to BOB is What are the chances that Gustav gets into the Gulf at all?
99% chance of Gustav getting into the Gulf!
"The GFDL is the fastest, bringing Gustav to New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. This is a plausible forecast, but at this point, virtually any point along the Gulf Coast has a roughly equal chance of a direct hit by Gustav.
Which set of model should we trust? I plotted up the errors for some of the computer model forecasts made during Fay. While Fay was over Hispaniola and Cuba, the GFDL model made the best track forecasts, among the four main models used by NHC: GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET. This makes me more inclined to trust the GFDL model's forecasts for Gustav, since Fay and Gustav are similar storms." Dr Jeff Masters FYI
hey caveman
pay attention! i asked Bob! I dont care or value what you have to say so save your breath and your itchy typing finger.
Lsufan79...Bob hasnt answered Yet..So i will give you my insight....Right now all the models are straight towards us..New orleans....At this time since it is So So early this will change....It is Def it will go into the Gulf No Doubt...Remeber the Gulf is very Large....Usually from the Models....The Hurricanes go a little more West then expected. So at this point i say it will make Landfall in Texas...But we can see what Bob thinks....
I saw a track that leads it into the mouth of the river and it is my understanding that there won't be anything that will stop it like fay got stopped. When will we know????
Better get to Lowe's and pick up some plywood for the windows! Things are looking worse now... should be a Cat 3 by Thursday, and models are getting focusing on Louisiana as of now... not looking good at all. This will be Katrina's brother without a doubt for someone.
Better fill up on gas also will sky rocket very soon...
bama i saw one 2 that makes it hit the gulf no other models are changing it either. caveman do you have any ideas of where it is going to hit...or any other models...where do we look....where is bob?????????????
hit the mouth sorry
PRAY THIS ONE IS GOING TO BE BAD...
www.wunderground.com
I'll step back and let Bob handle this one! This time it is very serious threat to our area, we are taking about this storm being a Cat 3 before it enters the Gulf, the Gulf water are actually little warmer than they are at Gustav's current location along with wind shear very min. so Cat 4 storm at landfall is NOT out of the question. The question now is where? Let's just say the Gulf of Mexico states are wide and guess who is right in the middle? New Orleans so the chance is pretty good we will see something. Models are all starting to agree on this storm also. Not to make things worse but models are also predicting 3 more hurricanes coming within the next week or so...
I agree with Bob that it's still too soon to be sure, but entry in the Gulf looks to be a certainty, even according to Bob's 5-day forecast link. To me, it looks like a Labor Day landfall is possible, which I imagine will cause everyone work-related confusion as per whether or not to evacuate. Well, maybe not everyone -- I won't be surprised if Nagin starts his holiday weekend a little early just to make sure he and his family are safe and secure on high ground!
where is bob?
Why don't we all take a breath and wait for more definitive projections?
i think their is a lot of strong ones and i think even bob will agree with caveman this time somewhere in la. this thing will hit....i concur with caveman start preparing for the worse if the best happens then you are ahead of the game...
what is the definition of definitive projections? answer wait for bob hahahahahaha
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