There have been no surprises over night as Gustav remains a Tropical Storm due to interacting with the 7,000' mountains of Jamaica. However, satellite pictures reveal Gustav is getting organized again as he gets back out into open water. We should see him develop into a strong hurricane as NHC forecasts. He still will not reach the Gulf until early on Sunday. Models continue a wide spread from the Florida beaches to west of Houston. Official NHC track brings Gustav right towards us and then bends him to the west BEFORE landfall. The key will be how soon that bending happens. I still feel this storm will shift west (like Carmen 1974) or east (like Ivan 2004). What will make him bend one way or another? The left turn comes courtesy of a high pressure system that might build far enough south by Monday to steer Gustav west. That high might also stall Gustav as he approaches land. (not good) The east turn could be the result of the upper trough currently over the Gulf drifting back to the west. Still many unanswered questions...still 4 days away...still too soon to target landfall location.
In times like this, humor helps. Go read Chris Rose's column in today's Times-Picayune. He suggests we call the "cone of uncertainty/error" the cone of CONFUSION or the cone of CLUELESSNESS. I like that. Thanks Chris.
37 comments:
Latest VIPIR run has Superman flying around Gustav and turning him back south towards Cuba.
Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar VIPIR, it is not a radar it is a radar analysis tool which takes the data from Nextrad (NWS radar) and puts in a 3D form for use by television stations etc. Actually it is on VIPIR when 3D graphics are being used. GOOD for local broadcast but worthless for hurricanes etc that are days out... thus VIPIR telling us few days ago that Florida was Gustav's target.
When Gustav is 48hrs away Bob and his VIPIR will be then ones to watch.
Oh yeah, Hanna will be entering the GULF in little over a week...
Bob, if it turns right or left at the last minute doesn't this still mean we will feel the effects? To the west we get the wet side, to the right the dry side, a turn too close ,we will still feel it even if not a direct hit?
What I want to know is when the NHC may get a handle on this thing. This storm has been 5 days out for 3 or 4 days now. They finally have it making landfall but still at 5 days.
Bob, I am concerned about the Northshore, specifically Tangipahoa Parish? IF Gustav makes landfall in Terrebone Parish, what can we expect for the Hammond area?
Bob, need your picks for the Superbowl. Thanks.
Caveman, I like your VIPIR president predictions. Can you get VIPIR to tell us who is going to win against Bill Jefferson? Last I heard, VIPIR said that Hanna might hit Alaska. What is your thoughts on that?
squidhammer, I thought VIPIR said West Jeff High school is going to win against the Saints in the Superbowl. Your thoughts? Seriously, I plan to leave tomorrow morning to Texas.
I hope this thing does go elsewhere... I'm still not convinced that it won't get picked up and pull an Ivan ON US this time..Having it head to sw La and then BAM back at se La. I HOPE it doesn't do that, I am obviously not in any way qualified to say that would happen nor am I saying it would, but I'm not taking any chances. I do hope that it doesn't make the people that prepare or eventually leave to be cautious, complacent the next time we are threatened...if it doesn't hit us.
Bob,
Are you getting at all nervous on this track? Yesterday, the track had it going through the channel and today going over Cuba. What is your insight on this?
From what I understand and remember I live in a cave they are now talking Cat 4 or 5 when Gustav hits the gulf, BUT whom ever it wacks it will be no more than a goode cat 3. Put it this way once Gustav gets into the Gulf he is land locked and either Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi or maybe Florida is going to get hit hard. Gulf waters are super hot and sheer is going away, just right for Gustav to pull a Katrina and explode in strenght and worse in size!
Hi Bob:
I live in Springfield, LA in Livingston Parish - we are just West of Tangiphoa Parish. Originally from N.O. and watch your nightly broadcasts - can you include us in your forecast thoughts over here? BR seems to miss us and so does NO.
Living on the water and sometimes in it keeps us in much concern for the Lake Maurepas, Blood and Tickfaw Rivers in this area. And with no levees to protect us we stay on guard over here.
Advance thanks for keeping us in your loop!
Elizabeth D. Bordelon
Waterfront Warrior Livingston Parish
Why is Bob not working for the NHC? If he knows so much better than them... Personally, I am not waiting for Bob to tell me if I should leave or not! I rather not fight traffic and be in a safe place... If it turns, GREAT! If it doesn't I will be safe... I guess Bob should run for governor, mayor... wait... President? All our problems would be solved! Now I will watch Bob when it gets close... But i won't listen to his sarcasm!
I commented to an earlier post, but didn't get a response. Now it's getting a bit closer, and I was wondering if there might be an better ideas for my situation. I'm coming back to New Orleans from St. Louis over the Labor Day weekend. Should I still consider coming in, or should I just cancel my plans and wait until later in the year? Should I wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before deciding? I was hoping to leave tonight at 5PM, but don't want to get down there tomorrow and have to turn right back around and evacuate.
Thanks!
I've been reading this blog trying to stay calm. Thank you Bob for a voice of reason. Being in Morgan City, I hope you are right.
stlcajun: I'm guessing he hasn't responded because somebody's vacation to our area right now is the least of his worries. If I were you, I would stay away...no need coming here when it could get bad.
Hi Bob,
Just wanting to remind everyone that as/if you start stocking up on food and water, don't forget your pets food/water also!
I was reading Dr. Masters blog, and saw some references to the currents or "loop currents" going around Cuba and such, and how they break off and head into the gulf warming the water etc. What effect does this have, if any, on any projected track? Or does it just have to do with the strengthening of the storm over warm water?
I still don't think my question posted. Please give me some advice, I have a trip planned to Disney World on Sept 3 leaving from N.O. and returning on Sept. 10 should I try and reschedule with the threat of Gustav and Hanna(is it going to hit Fl.?) Thanks so much for any advice you can give me!!
HURRICANE Gustav is looking quite like a pretty boy on satellite imagery!
Hope that VIPIR picks the Saints in Indianapolis! :)
Bob, looks like Hurricane Gustav is picking up speed, strength, looking better organized, and FINALLY following the track by the NHC. The NHC track is putting a bunch of faith that the ridge of High pressure over N.O. is not going to hold...but it looks like it may...and Monday will show increasing shear to his east...
I'm not thinking that this will be so bad for New Orleans at this point....but I'm thinking it will be a pain for someone if it goes further west!
I am looking forward to seeing if VIPIR starts filling in the missing pieces tomorrow?
Ya'll be safe...
Good Hurricane Music....
Jimmy Buffet....Trying to Reason With Hurricane Season....
The Doors...Riders on the Storm.
...and the line from The Doobie Brothers song...Toulouse St.....The spell has been cast down in New Orleans...Throw that one in...
Bob,
Can you please describe some of the "Contraflow" procedures to us? If the storm is heading towards the west, and we travel east, will we be able to take I-10?
Thanks for all of your help!
Hi I am in Thibodaux LA (Lafourche Parish) My husband and I are trying to decide if we should stay or go. If we evacuate we will go to tyler tx where we have family. Is tyler a safe place if this thing shifts more west? Should we just stay here? We could use some insight on how badly we may be affected here by Gustav.
Thanks Bob you rock
SORRY but this just might be Katrina's big brother... everything is coming into place for Gustav to grow to a big hurricane and not just talking strong but big in size. From what I have read and seen levee's WILL NOT hold back anything much stronger than a Cat2 storm. Long range models some of which are pretty good are placing Hanna in the Gulf in a week. Historical canes from Hanna's position tend to go into the Gulf and then north. FOLLOW and LISTEN to Bob's recommendations on this one. Everyone needs this awakening because can't believe how many people still don't understand contraflow and what preps to have done incase of a evac. Unfortunetaly many more people are going to find out how important flood insurance is even if it is not required by lender. Louisiana's Citizens Insurance will be pretty much the only one to write policies soon.
Hi Im in Thibodaux LA
(Lafourche Parish) and my husband and I are trying to decide if we should stay or go. If we evacuate we will go to Tyler TX. Is Tyler a safe place to be if this thing shifts more west? Should we just stay put? we could use some insight of how badly we may be effected by Gustav.
Thanks Bob You Rock!
Hey guys....
PLEASE STAY CALM and think...listen, watch, and plan!
This storm is looking formidable, and I agree with Caveman, likely a big brother to Katrina when it enters the Gulf...but a LOT may weaken it once it approaches the coast, depending upon some shear that will develop to his east, and whether or not he stalls over some cooler shelf waters. A LOT is uncertain.
His sister Hanna has a good chance of getting into the Gulf (as well as other places) as well.
The bottom line is this: TURN ON YOUR TV, and RADIO and follow the recommendations of civil and government authorities. NOW, familiarize yourselves with the contraflow maps (you can get one at EVERY gas station and Walmart!) and be prepared.
I think that there is a LOW probability that New Orleans will suffer Katrina like damage, but even a small, tightly wound storm can do tremendous damage to your small town if it passes over YOU!
THis storm is still several days away, but being prepared and following recommendations is ESSENTIAL!
I too am in awe that after Katrina, so many have no batteries, no water, no plan. The storm is NOT the biggest problem, it's not being prepared!
BE CALM, PLAN and be ready to act upon your plan when called to!
So many have asked Bob about vacation plans, etc...I'm not trying to speak for poor Bob...but he's a weather dude...c'mon folks...
If you are flying, call the airline. If you are driving, ask yourself if your vacation or your safety is more important! Please let Bob forecast some weather and use your common sense!
Be safe!!
Stormzz
Oh, and VIPIR has Gustav racing towards Katrina's house, cuz her Mama has a poboy waiting for him...;)
www.contraflowmaps.com
Latest VIPIR run with new data has Gustav stalling out to watch the LSU game.
www.contraflowmaps.com
www.contraflowmaps.com
The Mayor of NO has just said that the storm WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST; does he know something we don't?
Contraflow maps can also be found in .pdf format on the State Police website at www.lsp.org
Pressure has dropped now to 977 mb and winds at 82, Gustav is growing from eating all that warm water... They are now starting to focus more on New Orleans landfall. 12hrs after entering Gulf Gustav could be a high CAT 4 storm. New Orleans for Kat did NOT have the strong side of the storm, mobile did and look at what happened to them. Gustav hitting just to the west of N.O. is not good.
Don't trust C R Nagin, he's best buddies with Bruce and we know Bob knows more than Bruce.
Now, on the other hand, Good old Bobby J sure has outshined Edith Bunker hasn't he ?
Caveman....RUNNNNNN!! Vipir is showing Katrina comin to your house!! lol
Seriously, let's BE READY, but not go bonkers YET!
Latest from Hurricane Hunters is 975 mb...but VIPIR may show pressure running 200/90 in Louisiana....
Stay calm and listen to authorities, and as always stay tuned to Bob Breck..he's honest and will give you the best info available!
Stormzz
Thanks Bob for all the information..I was wondering...we are here in Texas staying at a hotel while my dad has his chemo treatment this weekend...he doesn't get disconnected from chemo until sunday and my kids are back at home in terrebonne parish...should they come here should they go north...what do we do?
I think everyone is in for a big suprise on the next track coming out...
It's like a zoo out there. Caveman are you drinking again?????????
What is the best estimate for winds we can expect in Washington Parish on the extreme North Shore?
What is the best estimate for winds we can expect in Washington Parish on the extreme North Shore?
Post a Comment